johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 12:41:55 GMT
I’ve seen quite a few winning % under 30.
There is a lot of detailed micro information still to discover, e.g.
What is the list of the lowest winning percentages (say, under 35)?
What is the list of the closest 3-way marginals?
With the combination of low turnout and multiple parties standing and splitting the vote, are there any winning candidates with fewer than 10,000 votes?
Obviously there is the Western Isles, but even there the winning candidate got a massive 6,692 votes (it wasn’t as close 3- ways as I had expected).
And a list of the lowest percentages for the candidates in 2nd place?
etc…
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 6, 2024 12:43:27 GMT
Closest 3-way marginals
SITTINGBOURNE AND SHEPPEY - Lab 29.1, Con 28.2, Ref 25.6
BASILDON AND BILLERICAY - Con 30.6, Lab 30.6, Ref 27.0
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY - Con 29.6, SNP 27.5, Lab 25.7
SOUTH WEST NORFOLK - Lab 26.7, Con 25.3, Ref 22.5
HORNCHURCH AND UPMINSTER - Con 32.5, Ref 28.4, Lab 27.6
Closest 4-way marginals
BURNLEY - Lab 31.7, LD 23.1, Con 20.3, Ref 19.5
ISLE OF WIGHT EAST - Con 30.6, Ref 20.8, Grn 18.5, Lab 18.4
SPELTHORNE - Con 30.4, Lab 27.0, LD 18.9, Ref 17.9
Closest 5-way marginal
MONTGOMERYSHIRE AND GLYNDWR - Lab 29.4, Ref 20.6, Con 18.0, LD 15.0, PC 13.1
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2024 12:45:11 GMT
The Times is the best hard copy I've found, though one imperfection is that they seem to think one can't have changes of share of the parties from notionals, but still give swing figures, which is contradictory. On another matter, has anyone yet found which seat had the lowest winning percentage? There are quite a few contenders this year. If anyone has any other nuggets, I am currently revising my 100 word profiles for The Times House of Commons book in the light of the results. (Again thanks to all the contributors to the Almanac board here, I've used a lot of the insights.) I bought the Times only to be immediately irritated by the lack of changes of vote share. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 6, 2024 12:47:10 GMT
Lowest second place candidates
LIVERPOOL GARSTON - Lab 58.4, Ref 10.5
EDMONTON AND WINCHMORE HILL - Lab 60.5, Grn 10.8
NOTTINGHAM EAST - Lab 53.6, Grn 11.9
BOOTLE - Lab 68.7, Ref 12.2
YORK CENTRAL - Lab 56.6, Con 12.4
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 6, 2024 12:53:21 GMT
Two constituencies had seven candidates save their deposits
BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN AND MOSELEY - Lab 30.8, Ind (Afsar) 17.2, Ind (Hafeez) 14.8, LD 11.3, Grn 9.4, Con 9.2, Ref 5.5
LUTON SOUTH AND SOUTH BEDFORDSHIRE - Lab 35.4, Con 17.5, Ind (Malik) 14.0, Ref 12.4, WP 8.1, Grn 6.3, LD 6.3
30 had 6 saved deposits
265 had 5 saved deposits
268 had 4 saved deposits
78 had 3 saved deposits
6 had 2 saved deposits (Hackney South & Shoreditch Lab/Grn, Harrow East Con/Lab, Bristol Central Grn/Lab, Fermanagh and South Tyrone SF/UUP, Hexham Lab/Con, Belfast East DUP/APNI)
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 6, 2024 13:01:29 GMT
Fewest votes for a candidate
19 - Bobby Smith (Give Me Back Elmo, Holborn and St Pancras)
25 - A.N. On (Independent, Bath)
27 - Jason Barnett (Independent, Richmond and Northallerton)
32 - Paul Josling (Independent, Islington North)
33 - Tasos Papanastasiou (Heritage Party, Clacton)
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 6, 2024 15:06:46 GMT
I'm sure I saw a seat on the Guardian map where the candidate had 1 vote. Just cant remember which constituency!
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 16:47:43 GMT
Answering one of my own questions: Na-hEileanan an Iar was indeed the only constituency in which the winning candidate got fewer than 10,000 votes.
6,692 Lab Na hEileanan an Iar
10,427 Con Isle of Wight East
10,518 Ind Blackburn
10,590 PC Ynys Môn
10,655 Lab Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North
11,275 Lab Birmingham Yardley
11,392 LD Orkney & Shetland
11,462 DUP Antrim East
11,506 DUP Londonderry East
11,642 TUV Amtrim North
11,724 Lab Bradford West
11,755 Lab Tipton & Wednesbury
11,833 Lab Bradford South
11,847 Lab Norfolk SW
11,919 Lab Sittingbourne & Sheppey
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 6, 2024 19:19:42 GMT
One question, though - didn't the outgoing government recently make loads of overseas residents eligible to vote by abolishing the time restriction on residence outside the country? Presumably that will have added to the electoral rolls, but likely relatively few will have taken up their right to vote - which would depress turnout figures overall. Probably not by a measurable amount. The new rules will have prevented people who were about to be removed from the roll from being taken off. But if someone had already been removed they would presumably have had to ask to be added back on. And if you're going to go to the effort of doing that then you're probably going to actually use your vote. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 6, 2024 19:43:33 GMT
One question, though - didn't the outgoing government recently make loads of overseas residents eligible to vote by abolishing the time restriction on residence outside the country? Presumably that will have added to the electoral rolls, but likely relatively few will have taken up their right to vote - which would depress turnout figures overall. Probably not by a measurable amount. The new rules will have prevented people who were about to be removed from the roll from being taken off. But if someone had already been removed they would presumably have had to ask to be added back on. And if you're going to go to the effort of doing that then you're probably going to actually use your vote. Both my father, and someone I met in Cardiganshire recently who now lives in Perth (WA) but was last enrolled in Luton, say they were re-registered automatically. Which is strange, considering that eligible resident citizens are not added automatically - though the new government apparently has plans to change this. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 19:52:10 GMT
Leicester East was the only Conservative gain in this election. However, the residents of some other areas ended up with a Conservative MP when they didn't previously have one, due to boundary changes. A fair chunk of Gordon and Buchan, the part of North Shropshire transferred to The Wrekin, and the Pinhoe and St Loyes wards that were moved from Exeter to Exmouth & Exeter East are some. Any more?
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2024 20:00:07 GMT
Leicester East was the only Conservative gain in this election. However, the residents of some other areas ended up with a Conservative MP when they didn't previously have one, due to boundary changes. A fair chunk of Gordon and Buchan, the part of North Shropshire transferred to The Wrekin, and the Pinhoe and St Loyes wards that were moved from Exeter to Exmouth & Exeter East are some. Any more? There’s a bit of Woodford that moved from Ilford N to Chingford. About a quarter of the old City of Chester seat Theres an area around Whitgift in Croydon There’s an area that moved from Stockton N to Stockton W St Loyes above was already in a Conservative seat Most of Mid Bedfordshire has had a Lab MP for the last year |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 6, 2024 20:15:19 GMT
Leicester East was the only Conservative gain in this election. However, the residents of some other areas ended up with a Conservative MP when they didn't previously have one, due to boundary changes. A fair chunk of Gordon and Buchan, the part of North Shropshire transferred to The Wrekin, and the Pinhoe and St Loyes wards that were moved from Exeter to Exmouth & Exeter East are some. Any more? Also a chunk around Tadcaster in North Yorkshire |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 6, 2024 20:15:32 GMT
Probably not by a measurable amount. The new rules will have prevented people who were about to be removed from the roll from being taken off. But if someone had already been removed they would presumably have had to ask to be added back on. And if you're going to go to the effort of doing that then you're probably going to actually use your vote. Both my father, and someone I met in Cardiganshire recently who now lives in Perth (WA) but was last enrolled in Luton, say they were re-registered automatically. Which is strange, considering that eligible resident citizens are not added automatically - though the new government apparently has plans to change this. How do ex-pat voters appear on the electoral roll? And to which constituency are they allocated? |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2024 21:17:50 GMT
Leicester East was the only Conservative gain in this election. However, the residents of some other areas ended up with a Conservative MP when they didn't previously have one, due to boundary changes. A fair chunk of Gordon and Buchan, the part of North Shropshire transferred to The Wrekin, and the Pinhoe and St Loyes wards that were moved from Exeter to Exmouth & Exeter East are some. Any more? me |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 6, 2024 21:52:16 GMT
Both my father, and someone I met in Cardiganshire recently who now lives in Perth (WA) but was last enrolled in Luton, say they were re-registered automatically. Which is strange, considering that eligible resident citizens are not added automatically - though the new government apparently has plans to change this. How do ex-pat voters appear on the electoral roll? And to which constituency are they allocated? If they are listed at all it will be as one of the "other electors" who sometimes appear on the roll at the end of a polling district, and they will be allocated to whichever constituency their last UK address is in. However, many won't be registered at all simply because they won't have informed electoral services that they have moved abroad and will simply have disappeared from the roll at the first annual update after they left the UK in the same way as anybody else who moves to a different council area and doesn't notify the council. I guess the case of somebody who was automatically re-registered must be because their council still has copies pf old versions of the electoral roll. But there must be a limit to how far back those records go, or to how far back council staff were required to check for those voters. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Jul 7, 2024 8:21:10 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats won by Labour in 1997 that they (or their successor seats) did NOT win in 2024? St Albans, Wimbledon and arguably the Inverness based seat were Lab 1997 and LD this time |
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Post by Yaffles on Jul 7, 2024 8:31:27 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats won by Labour in 1997 that they (or their successor seats) did NOT win in 2024? St Albans, Wimbledon and arguably the Inverness based seat were Lab 1997 and LD this time Not a list but Wyre Forest, The Wrekin and Staffordshire Moorlands were all Labour in 97 but not now. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 12:27:12 GMT
(1) If I remember correctly, the 2001 general election (with a turnout of 59%) had 609 constituencies in which the number of electors who did not vote was more than the number of votes for the winning candidate. A question for the cleverclogs spreadsheetologists: What is the equivalent number this time? I guess it's even more, due to the split of the vote being more various.
(2) There has been a lot of news reporting of the new youngest MP (Sam Carling, 10th April 2002). A few days ago, someone said that there were several Labour candidates in their early 20s. Are there any other new MPs who are older than Sam Carling but younger than Keir Mather (29th January 1998)?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 7, 2024 12:50:18 GMT
Not quite - but Rosie Wrighting, who went from narrowly losing the WCC election in Little Venice ward in 2022 to winning Kettering in the general election, was born in August 1997 and is therefore 26.
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