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Post by froome on Aug 26, 2021 6:33:31 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway stands out to me - though I suppose it's probably the constituency which has seen the greatest fall in the Labour vote over the last decade (by 2019 it had fallen to under one fifth of the 2010 figure). Looking at the figures, it also seems to be the constituency with the most consistent number of votes cast for the winning candidate. In 2010, it was 23,950, then it fell to 23,440, then 22,344, and finally 22,678. Do any other seats come close to that level of stability? Where did the Labour vote in 2010 come from in this seat. I would assume much would have come from Dumfries and Stranraer, but there must have been some rural or small town vote as well?
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 27, 2021 8:43:57 GMT
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 27, 2021 9:33:19 GMT
So if that is South Pennines what is the Sheffield, Derbyshire part of the Pennines called?
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 27, 2021 9:39:46 GMT
So if that is South Pennines what is the Sheffield, Derbyshire part of the Pennines called? The Deep South. Always a coat warmer in Sheffield.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 27, 2021 10:06:48 GMT
So if that is South Pennines what is the Sheffield, Derbyshire part of the Pennines called? Hope Valley
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Aug 27, 2021 11:47:24 GMT
Based on the BCE’s nomenclature surely this map would represent “East Pennine Moors”?
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 27, 2021 11:53:52 GMT
Based on the BCE’s nomenclature surely this map would represent “East Pennine Moors”? "Valleys of Aire, Worth, Calder, and Colne"?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2021 13:41:23 GMT
Based on the BCE’s nomenclature surely this map would represent “East Pennine Moors”? "Valleys of Aire, Worth, Calder, and Colne"? Yes please.
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Post by froome on Aug 27, 2021 14:46:44 GMT
Based on the BCE’s nomenclature surely this map would represent “East Pennine Moors”? "Valleys of Aire, Worth, Calder, and Colne"? Aire, Worth, Calder and Colne really ought be a solicitor's business.
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 28, 2021 7:28:01 GMT
1992 vs 1979 notionals (bar Cardiff West, Buckingham, Milton Keynes etc):- The Tories win (as expected) but their 1979NT victories trounce their 1992 victories but it's the other way round for Labour. (Used the ratio method 1st place/2nd place to allow for candidate patterns).
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 28, 2021 19:29:58 GMT
Swale 2019. C 16 (-16) Lab 11 (+7) Swale Ind 10 (+10) LD 5 (+5) Ind 2 Grn 2 (+2) UKIP 1 (-8). Changes based on 2015 (deep breath, here we go): C gain from UKIP Queenborough and Halfway (1) Grn gain from C Boughton and Courtenay (2) Ind gain from UKIP Sheerness (1) Lab gain from C Homewood (1) Milton Regis (1) Roman (1) St Ann's (2) Lab gain from UKIP Milton Regis (1) Roman (1) LD gain from C Abbey (2) Watling (2) LD gain from Ind Priory Swale Ind gain from C Bobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow (1) Hartlip, Newington and Upchurch (1) Kemsley (1) Sheppey East (1) Woodstock (2) Swale Ind gain from UKIP Borden and Grove Park (1) Minster Cliffs (1) Murston (1) Sheppey Central (1) Split wards in 2019 were: Bobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow: Swale/C Borden and Grove Park: Swale/C Hartlip, Newington and Upchurch: Swale/C Kemsley: Swale/C Minster Cliffs: 1Swale/2C Murston: Swale/C Sheerness: 1Ind/2Lab Sheppey Central: 1Swale/2C Sheppey East: Swale/UKIP
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 29, 2021 9:57:45 GMT
Nuffield urbanicity scales (1970s):- Big City - constituencies in cities over 200,000 population Other Urban - constituencies not in a Big City with less than 3% employed in agriculture Mixed - constituencies with 3-6% in agriculture Mainly Rural - constituencies with 6-15% in agriculture Very Rural - constituencies with more than 15% in agriculture
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Aug 29, 2021 10:13:18 GMT
As it's a Sunday in Wales, and I recently found a data source that collates the various results (Llion Wigley's article Sych ar y Sul in issue 27/4 of the Welsh History Review), here is a pretty map of the 1961 Welsh Sunday Pub Opening Referenda: In case anyone's curious, if it had been run as a single all-Wales referendum, Open would have won: 454,720 votes were cast for Open (54%) against 391,139 for Closed (46%). I might do maps of 1968, 1975, 1982, 1989, and 1996 at some point if I can be confident I've found all the data – it's rather tiresome trying to figure out where gaps are because of missing data or because there was no referendum in that year in a county or district.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2021 10:43:30 GMT
As it's a Sunday in Wales, and I recently found a data source that collates the various results (Llion Wigley's article Sych ar y Sul in issue 27/4 of the Welsh History Review), here is a pretty map of the 1961 Welsh Sunday Pub Opening Referenda: In case anyone's curious, if it had been run as a single all-Wales referendum, Open would have won: 454,720 votes were cast for Open (54%) against 391,139 for Closed (46%). I might do maps of 1968, 1975, 1982, 1989, and 1996 at some point if I can be confident I've found all the data – it's rather tiresome trying to figure out where gaps are because of missing data or because there was no referendum in that year in a county or district. Can you imagine how a wet/dry referendum would be fought in this day and age? My god.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Aug 29, 2021 10:50:46 GMT
Can you imagine how a wet/dry referendum would be fought in this day and age? My god. I can – it's pretty much why they were stopped after 1996 – 500 puritanical types managed to get a referendum called in Rhondda Cynon Taf (which had been a wet area for 35 years by that point) and wasted the local authority's money on a referendum where there was very little doubt as to what the result would be (88%/12% was the final result there).
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 29, 2021 19:21:40 GMT
Can you imagine how a wet/dry referendum would be fought in this day and age? My god. I can – it's pretty much why they were stopped after 1996 – 500 puritanical types managed to get a referendum called in Rhondda Cynon Taf (which had been a wet area for 35 years by that point) and wasted the local authority's money on a referendum where there was very little doubt as to what the result would be (88%/12% was the final result there). I was told they were stopped following the local government re-organisation in 1995.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,176
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 29, 2021 19:38:48 GMT
I can – it's pretty much why they were stopped after 1996 – 500 puritanical types managed to get a referendum called in Rhondda Cynon Taf (which had been a wet area for 35 years by that point) and wasted the local authority's money on a referendum where there was very little doubt as to what the result would be (88%/12% was the final result there). I was told they were stopped following the local government re-organisation in 1995. I think that's right, though one beneficial side-effect was the end of the wet/dry votes. In any case, by that time Wales was entirely wet, even in the most historically dry districts.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 29, 2021 19:43:09 GMT
I can – it's pretty much why they were stopped after 1996 – 500 puritanical types managed to get a referendum called in Rhondda Cynon Taf (which had been a wet area for 35 years by that point) and wasted the local authority's money on a referendum where there was very little doubt as to what the result would be (88%/12% was the final result there). I was told they were stopped following the local government re-organisation in 1995. Hmm. The legal provision for the polls was s. 66-67 of the Licensing Act 1964. The Local Government (Wales) Act 1994 which implemented the new councils didn't repeal it but instead in made amendments to apply the referendum provisions to the new councils. See Schedule 16 on pages 131-2. The referendum provisions were not abolished until the Licensing Act 2003 repealed the entire 1964 Act. Note: www.politics.co.uk/news/2003/07/22/end-to-sunday-drinking-bans-for-wales/
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Aug 29, 2021 21:24:07 GMT
I can – it's pretty much why they were stopped after 1996 – 500 puritanical types managed to get a referendum called in Rhondda Cynon Taf (which had been a wet area for 35 years by that point) and wasted the local authority's money on a referendum where there was very little doubt as to what the result would be (88%/12% was the final result there). I was told they were stopped following the local government re-organisation in 1995. Not immediately. There were two votes in 1996. The silly one was Rhondda Cynon Taf, as I mentioned. The other one was Gwynedd (one of the predecessor authorities, Dwyfor, was by that point the last dry district in Wales) – that one was a more sensible-looking 71%/29% win for Sunday opening. They were stopped in July 2003 when someone noticed that there was a risk of further referenda that November.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 30, 2021 14:35:22 GMT
South Staffordshire 2019. C 37 (-6) Ind 7 (+3) Grn 3 (+3) Lab 1 UKIP 1. Changes based on 2015: Grn gain from C Bilbrook (2) Grn gain from Lab Huntington and Hatherton (1) Ind gain from C Featherstone and Shareshill (1) Perton Lakeside (2) Lab gain from C Cheslyn Hay North and Saredon (1) Penkridge North East and Acton Trussell, Perton Dippons, and Trysull and Seisdon were uncontested. Wombourne South West was a postponed poll. Split wards in 2019 were: Cheslyn Hay North and Saredon: UKIP/Lab Huntingdon and Hatherton: C/Grn Perton Lakeside: 2Ind/1C
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