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Post by hullenedge on Aug 17, 2021 12:13:30 GMT
Of all the newspapers publishing the 1950GE results the Evening Standard makes the bravest attempt at aligning 1950 with 1945, eg:- Mapping their definitions produces the above. There are some dubious 'results' but their figures do tally.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2021 12:30:50 GMT
I think Newark is Labour gain via redistribution and Romford is certainly a Conservative gain via redistribution. Not sure about the Truro/Camborne/Falmouth & Camborne situation either. It's an interesting effort though
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 17, 2021 21:15:41 GMT
Ashford 2019. C 26 Ashford Ind 11 Lab 7 Grn 2 Ind 1. New ward boundaries. Bircholt; Isle of Oxney; Mersham, Sevington South with Finberry; Tenterden St Michael's; Tenterden South; and Upper Weald were uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Furley: C/Lab
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Post by emsworth on Aug 18, 2021 9:50:18 GMT
Mélenchon's best polling station was in the south of the 18th arrondissement just above the Gare du Nord, with 49% ah yes, that row of blocks along the railway line is visible from miles away. But what's with the Fillon win in La Villette!?
Really weird - I don't know. Sarkozy did decently there in 2012 (44% R2), but nothing that would point towards a Fillon victory. FWIW, even in "bobo" places, wherever there's a bit of wealth, the right will have a certain floor to its vote. Is that part of the 19ème a bit more middle class?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 18, 2021 20:46:40 GMT
2017 French presidential election results by polling station in Paris. Who wants to play "guess where the wealth is"? Shades: 25-30, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, >70 Orange - Macron Blue - Fillon (establishment right, Thatcherite) Red - Mélenchon (hard-left) Macron's best polling station was on the eastern side of the 3rd arrondissement, with 49% Mélenchon's best polling station was in the south of the 18th arrondissement just above the Gare du Nord, with 49% Fillon's best polling station was in Passy in the western part of the 16th arrondissement, with 73% (!!) More maps: drive.google.com/drive/folders/1B49vsxyOQ9C_yCB6bETK2pngiGPfM7ai?usp=sharing
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 19, 2021 4:26:47 GMT
ah yes, that row of blocks along the railway line is visible from miles away. But what's with the Fillon win in La Villette!?
Really weird - I don't know. Sarkozy did decently there in 2012 (44% R2), but nothing that would point towards a Fillon victory. FWIW, even in "bobo" places, wherever there's a bit of wealth, the right will have a certain floor to its vote. Is that part of the 19ème a bit more middle class? no idea, not been there. Further west and sw I see some more boboish old housing stock areas in orange.
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 19, 2021 4:31:11 GMT
2017 French presidential election results by polling station in Paris. Who wants to play "guess where the wealth is"? Shades: 25-30, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, >70 Orange - Macron Blue - Fillon (establishment right, Thatcherite) Red - Mélenchon (hard-left) Macron's best polling station was on the eastern side of the 3rd arrondissement, with 49% Mélenchon's best polling station was in the south of the 18th arrondissement just above the Gare du Nord, with 49% Fillon's best polling station was in Passy in the western part of the 16th arrondissement, with 73% (!!) More maps: drive.google.com/drive/folders/1B49vsxyOQ9C_yCB6bETK2pngiGPfM7ai?usp=sharingwhat's the scale on those 2nd round maps - what's Le Pen's peak share? Funny how everybody but Macrofillon's shares are vaguely correlated in round 1.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 19, 2021 10:05:07 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 19, 2021 11:13:55 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 19, 2021 13:30:46 GMT
Lab v Lib Dem/All combined votes (1983/87/92):- Buckingham & Milton Keynes amalgamated. Totals split 409 to 223.
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 23, 2021 11:39:49 GMT
The top polls 2010-19:-
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 23, 2021 12:14:05 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway stands out to me - though I suppose it's probably the constituency which has seen the greatest fall in the Labour vote over the last decade (by 2019 it had fallen to under one fifth of the 2010 figure).
Looking at the figures, it also seems to be the constituency with the most consistent number of votes cast for the winning candidate. In 2010, it was 23,950, then it fell to 23,440, then 22,344, and finally 22,678. Do any other seats come close to that level of stability?
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 23, 2021 12:20:12 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway stands out to me - though I suppose it's probably the constituency which has seen the greatest fall in the Labour vote over the last decade (by 2019 it had fallen to under one fifth of the 2010 figure). Looking at the figures, it also seems to be the constituency with the most consistent number of votes cast for the winning candidate. In 2010, it was 23,950, then it fell to 23,440, then 22,344, and finally 22,678. Do any other seats come close to that level of stability? Seats with lowest standard deviations among the winning votes:- Chipping Barnet Witney Dumfries and Galloway Bromley and Chislehurst Kensington Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner South West Surrey and the highest:- Walthamstow Manchester Central Sheffield Central Manchester, Withington Hove Liverpool, Riverside Hackney South and Shoreditch Lewisham, Deptford Poplar and Limehouse Bethnal Green and Bow Birmingham, Hall Green Bristol West
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 23, 2021 13:07:40 GMT
Glancing at it, it looks to me as if the most marginal seats of the last decade go back the furthest for the highest vote total for any party. I guess that would be logical.
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DrW
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Post by DrW on Aug 24, 2021 18:45:07 GMT
Dumfries and Galloway stands out to me - though I suppose it's probably the constituency which has seen the greatest fall in the Labour vote over the last decade (by 2019 it had fallen to under one fifth of the 2010 figure). Looking at the figures, it also seems to be the constituency with the most consistent number of votes cast for the winning candidate. In 2010, it was 23,950, then it fell to 23,440, then 22,344, and finally 22,678. Do any other seats come close to that level of stability? Brown bounce in Scotland plus a popular local MP who was a first term incumbent in the Galloway part of the constituency (and so enjoyed a double incumbency bonus). But a lot of those who voted Labour were previously SNP and looking to keep the Conservatives out - so it all unravelled post-2014. As for the number of winning votes - the seat has been a hard fought marginal for many years and so my speculation is that three of the main parties (at various times) have/have had well-oiled constituency machines.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 24, 2021 19:50:59 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2021 11:35:12 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 25, 2021 11:50:44 GMT
Labour votes polled change in 2017 compared to 2005:- Change in the Con/Lab gap in 2017 compared to 2005:-
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 25, 2021 12:59:10 GMT
Central Devon stands out again on that first map as a particular oddity. I've not heard a satisfactory explanation for that - only one is the Exeter influence but most of the seat is too far away from Exeter for that to be a major factor IMO
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 25, 2021 14:55:53 GMT
Central Devon stands out again on that first map as a particular oddity. I've not heard a satisfactory explanation for that - only one is the Exeter influence but most of the seat is too far away from Exeter for that to be a major factor IMO I Agree that it does stand out on the map and the Labour vote is probably double what we’d expect. I think the speed of the A30 does mean that many people commute into public sector jobs in Exeter from that part of the seat. I also wonder whether the fact that it was a new and ‘rag bag’ seat meant that the Lib Dem’s never got themselves organised enough to be the bucket for all anti Conservative tactical votes like they have done in the surrounding seats. The Labour vote in neighbouring Tiverton and Honiton, which is quite a similar seat has followed quite a similar trajectory ( at least until 2019) Labour vote. DC. T and H 2005 notional 11.6%. 13.3% 2010. 6.9%. 8.9% 2015. 12.8%. 12.7% 2017. 27%. 27.1% 2019. 24.8%. 19.5%
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