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Post by andrewteale on Aug 8, 2020 18:18:26 GMT
Tandridge 2019. Changes based on 2015: Ind gain from C Burstow, Horne and Outwood Godstone Lingfield and Crowhurst LD gain from C Portley Warlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group gain from C Limpsfield Oxted North and Tandridge Oxted South Grey wards not up for election. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Burstow, Horne and Outwood is 2Ind/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Dormansland and Felcourt is C/Ind and is not up in 2021. Godstone is 2Ind/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Lingfield and Crowhurst is C/Ind and is not up in 2021. Oxted South is 2 Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2021. Queens Park is C/LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2021.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 8, 2020 18:37:53 GMT
It may aid in understanding this map that the Conservative led council is pushing a new 5,000 home 'garden community' settlement at South Godstone, just under where the 'stone' of the label 'Godstone' is, and it is not popular with the people living round it.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 9, 2020 15:47:22 GMT
Harlow 2019. No changes based on 2015. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Staple Tye is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2021.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 10, 2020 20:39:27 GMT
Barnsley 2019. Changes based on 2015: Barnsley Independent Group gain from Lab Stairfoot Democrats and Veterans Party gain from Lab Darfield Monk Bretton Ind gain from Lab Dearne South Worsbrough LD gain from C Penistone West LD gain from Lab Darton East Dodworth There were 107 spoiled votes in Cudworth ward, where 5% of the voters who turned out cast blank ballots. A few other wards with no independent or populist-right candidate had very high spoil rates. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Darfield is 2Lab/1DVP and Labour are defending in 2021. Darton East is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2021. Dearne South is 2Lab/1Ind and Labour are defending in 2021. Dodworth is BIG/Lab/LD and the Barnsley Independent Group are defending in 2021. Monk Bretton is 2Lab/1DVP and Labour are defending in 2021. Penistone West is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Stairfoot is 2Lab/1BIG and Labour are defending in 2021. Worsbrough is BIG/Ind/Lab and the Barnsley Independent Group are defending in 2021.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,809
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 11, 2020 13:30:38 GMT
Barnsley 2019. Changes based on 2015: Barnsley Independent Group gain from Lab Stairfoot Democrats and Veterans Party gain from Lab Darfield Monk Bretton Ind gain from Lab Dearne South Worsbrough LD gain from C Penistone West LD gain from Lab Darton East Dodworth There were 107 spoiled votes in Cudworth ward, where 5% of the voters who turned out cast blank ballots. A few other wards with no independent or populist-right candidate had very high spoil rates. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Darfield is 2Lab/1DVP and Labour are defending in 2021. Darton East is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2021. Dearne South is 2Lab/1Ind and Labour are defending in 2021. Dodworth is BIG/Lab/LD and the Barnsley Independent Group are defending in 2021. Monk Bretton is 2Lab/1DVP and Labour are defending in 2021. Penistone West is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2021. Stairfoot is 2Lab/1BIG and Labour are defending in 2021. Worsbrough is BIG/Ind/Lab and the Barnsley Independent Group are defending in 2021. Of all the local elections which were going to be held this year, this was the one that would be the most interesting. Why? Barnsley East: Lab 38%, Brexit 29%, Con 27%, Lib Dem 4%, Green 3% Barnsley Central: Lab 40%, Brexit 30%, Con 21%, Lib Dem 3%, Green 2%, Yorkshire 2% Penistone and Stocksbridge: Con 48%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 10%, Brexit 9% Average across borough: Lab 37%, Con 32%, Brexit 23%, Lib Dem 6%, Green 2%, Yorkshire 1% If that didn't produce a few Brexit councillors and a few more Con councillors in places that were a little strange, then the Brexit and Conservatives would have collapsed like stones.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 12, 2020 17:48:40 GMT
Oldham 2019. Changes based on 2015: Ind gain from Lab Failsworth East Lab gain from LD Saddleworth North LD gain from Lab Saddleworth West and Lees There were some very low winning vote shares this year. Labour won Saddleworth North with 24% on an almost perfect four-way vote split; five other wards were won with under 40%. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Failsworth East is 2Lab/1Ind and Labour are defending in 2021. Saddleworth North is C/Lab/LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2021. Saddleworth West and Lees is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2021. St Mary's is 2Lab/1Ind and the independent is up in 2021.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 15, 2020 15:52:37 GMT
Rochdale 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Littleborough Lakeside No split wards (not taking account of by-elections or defections).
That completes Greater Manchester 2018 on LEAP.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 16, 2020 14:31:14 GMT
Croydon 2018. Lab 41 C 29. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2018 were: Addiscombe East: Lab/C
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 769
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Post by yorkshireluke on Aug 17, 2020 1:08:49 GMT
Hello. I have returned after a rather long break, hope you enjoy these maps of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire: (I have noticed the mistake with the dates)
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Post by David Ashforth on Aug 19, 2020 8:57:38 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,523
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Post by johng on Aug 19, 2020 9:24:04 GMT
Interesting data, but it's fairly misleading to compare 7 statistical areas.
I think removing inland areas takes it out of context.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2020 12:03:02 GMT
Well that map of Ireland doesn't hold so many surprises.
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 19, 2020 19:37:23 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,324
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 19, 2020 20:15:00 GMT
Is the map supposed to be amusing or is it just accidentally so through hubris and incompetence?
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 19, 2020 21:24:21 GMT
Georg Ebner has been through the LEAP website with a fine-tooth comb and very kindly pointed out that there were some missing maps, so here they are. Gravesham 2003 North Cornwall 2003 (no cartogram for this one) Lambeth 2006 (cartogram added)
Newcastle upon Tyne 2018 and 2019 - the geographic map is now available in PNG bitmap format as well as SVG vector format.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 19, 2020 22:04:14 GMT
Barnet 2018. C 38 (+6) Lab 25 (-5) LD 0 (-1). Changes based on 2014: C gain from Lab Brunswick Park (1) East Barnet (1) Hale (1) West Hendon (3) Lab gain from LD Childs Hill (1) Split wards in 2018 were: Brunswick Park: 2C/1Lab Childs Hill: 2C/1Lab East Barnet: 2Lab/1C
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 20, 2020 0:38:52 GMT
Is the map supposed to be amusing or is it just accidentally so through hubris and incompetence? Yes, while he gets full marks for trying, there do seem to be some howlers. I just can't see how Labour would have led in Parkhurst on the Isle of Wight, or central Windsor, or large swathes of Scarborough. On the flipside they seem to have been underestimated in a few places - Keighley East, Todmorden, Headington in Oxford. I think their methodology might overemphasise the differences between wards in each constituency, which would explain most of the calls I take umbrage with.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,865
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Post by jamie on Aug 20, 2020 11:17:15 GMT
Is the map supposed to be amusing or is it just accidentally so through hubris and incompetence? Yes, while he gets full marks for trying, there do seem to be some howlers. I just can't see how Labour would have led in Parkhurst on the Isle of Wight, or central Windsor, or large swathes of Scarborough. On the flipside they seem to have been underestimated in a few places - Keighley East, Todmorden, Headington in Oxford. I think their methodology might overemphasise the differences between wards in each constituency, which would explain most of the calls I take umbrage with. There does seem to be quite a few seats where Labour were miles behind but supposedly win quite a few wards that in reality they won’t have been close to winning (Ceredigion, scattering of southern rurals). Presumably something to do with them only contesting some wards and therefore strength being greatly overestimated where they did?
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 20, 2020 11:33:27 GMT
Yes, while he gets full marks for trying, there do seem to be some howlers. I just can't see how Labour would have led in Parkhurst on the Isle of Wight, or central Windsor, or large swathes of Scarborough. On the flipside they seem to have been underestimated in a few places - Keighley East, Todmorden, Headington in Oxford. I think their methodology might overemphasise the differences between wards in each constituency, which would explain most of the calls I take umbrage with. There does seem to be quite a few seats where Labour were miles behind but supposedly win quite a few wards that in reality they won’t have been close to winning (Ceredigion, scattering of southern rurals). Presumably something to do with them only contesting some wards and therefore strength being greatly overestimated where they did? Ceridigion didn't jump out at me so much because I don't know the area so well - that said Lampeter seems so strongly Labour and has such good demographics that they could probably win there despite coming fourth overall. But anywhere in Aberystwyth is a stretch, and anything more rural is for the birds. I'd be fascinated to see their North East - if it's anything like the rest of the map they'll have Labour winning Corbridge but losing Wallsend or something equally daft.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 20, 2020 11:57:08 GMT
Of course that map has some bits completely missing as well.....
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