Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2019 11:32:37 GMT
Southampton 2016. Changes based on 2012: Ind gain from Lab Coxford C gain from Lab Sholing Lab gain from C Portswood   Southampton 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from Lab Bitterne Millbrook Peartree Lab gain from C Freemantle Portswood Swaythling   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Bitterne is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in May. Freemantle is 2Lab/1C and the Conservatives are defending in May. Millbrook is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in May. Peartree is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in May. Portswood is 2Lab/1C and the Conservatives are defending in May. Swaythling is 2C/1Lab and the Conservatives are defending in May. Interesting how in Southampton the more working-class part of the city is now the more Tory. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2019 12:35:45 GMT
There is technically a difference between a unitary county and a unitary district (thought I'm not sure if it makes any difference in practice). About the only distinction I've found is that unitary counties have electoral divisions, while unitary districts have wards. For the record, the unitary counties are: Cornwall Durham Isle of Wight Northumberland Shropshire Wiltshire To be joined by Buckinghamshire in 2020. What about Dorset? A genuine question rather than a correction. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 14, 2019 12:50:35 GMT
There is technically a difference between a unitary county and a unitary district (thought I'm not sure if it makes any difference in practice). About the only distinction I've found is that unitary counties have electoral divisions, while unitary districts have wards. For the record, the unitary counties are: Cornwall Durham Isle of Wight Northumberland Shropshire Wiltshire To be joined by Buckinghamshire in 2020. What about Dorset? A genuine question rather than a correction. Difficult to answer but as Dorset will have wards (see: www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2018/1373/pdfs/uksi_20181373_en.pdf), as will Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (see www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2018/1372/pdfs/uksi_20181372_en.pdf), I think they are both districts. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775 
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Post by yorkshireluke on Mar 15, 2019 15:51:01 GMT
50: Winchester City Council, Hampshire, South East.
Here we have one of the closest councils out there, and one of the Lib Dem's best chances to gain off the Tories. If they don't it would be seen as a massive disappointment and failure. Some might say the real question is how big will their majority be? The Lib Dems need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to stop that. My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. 
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Post by andrewp on Mar 15, 2019 16:20:20 GMT
50: Winchester City Council, Hampshire, South East.
Here we have one of the closest councils out there, and one of the Lib Dem's best chances to gain off the Tories. If they don't it would be seen as a massive disappointment and failure. Some might say the real question is how big will their majority be? The Lib Dems need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to stop that. My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. The most certain change of control in the country in May? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,997
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 15, 2019 20:22:58 GMT
50: Winchester City Council, Hampshire, South East.
Here we have one of the closest councils out there, and one of the Lib Dem's best chances to gain off the Tories. If they don't it would be seen as a massive disappointment and failure. Some might say the real question is how big will their majority be? The Lib Dems need a net gain of 1 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need to stop that. My prediction: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. The most certain change of control in the country in May? Yes. It is almost inconceivable that we wouldn't take control in 'normal' national political circumstances. In the present utter clusterfuck country nationally, in a place as remain as this (the city wards are where those things really matter, and that's almost entirely where the most straightforward gains are) it's completely inevitable. |
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Mar 16, 2019 0:50:22 GMT
49: Lancaster City Council, Lancashire, North West.
Now this is one of the councils that greatly benefits from andrewteale's cartograms as despite all that blue it's a Labour majority. This may not be the case after May however, if County Council results from 2017 are repeated then Labour may see losses here. Gonna be close. The Conservatives need a net gain of 16 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Mar 16, 2019 1:13:41 GMT
48: Hartlepool Borough Council, County Durham, North East.
Hartlepool is another close Labour majority, except unlike Lancaster I reckon they''ll hold onto this one. That being said, the independents here only seem to be doing better as time goes on. If they're having a bad night then this will be a scare. Should be fine though. Labour need to avoid a net loss of 2 to keep their majority. My prediction: Labour HOLD. 
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 16, 2019 12:22:12 GMT
49: Lancaster City Council, Lancashire, North West.
Now this is one of the councils that greatly benefits from andrewteale 's cartograms as despite all that blue it's a Labour majority. This may not be the case after May however, if County Council results from 2017 are repeated then Labour may see losses here. Gonna be close. The Conservatives need a net gain of 16 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. Since you asked...  |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 16, 2019 12:38:22 GMT
49: Lancaster City Council, Lancashire, North West.
Now this is one of the councils that greatly benefits from andrewteale 's cartograms as despite all that blue it's a Labour majority. This may not be the case after May however, if County Council results from 2017 are repeated then Labour may see losses here. Gonna be close. The Conservatives need a net gain of 16 to gain a majority, Labour need to avoid a net loss of 1 to keep theirs. My prediction: NOC GAIN from Labour. Since you asked... I’d see a doctor about that. |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2019 13:03:54 GMT
Since you asked... I’d see a doctor about that. Dok? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 16, 2019 13:32:27 GMT
I’d see a doctor about that. Dok? Definitely not. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 16, 2019 16:51:37 GMT
Since you asked... I’d see a doctor about that. Bulk is a great name for a ward! |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 16, 2019 17:35:31 GMT
I’d see a doctor about that. Bulk is a great name for a ward! Bare isn't far behind it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 16, 2019 18:07:18 GMT
Bulk is a great name for a ward! Bare isn't far behind it. "Bulk and Bare First" has a ring to it. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 17, 2019 18:43:01 GMT
Havant 2016. Changes based on 2012: UKIP gain from Lab Battins Warren Park   Havant 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from UKIP Hayling East Stakes   Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Battins is LD/UKIP and is not up in May. Bondfields is Lab/C and is not up in May. Warren Park is Lab/UKIP and is not up in May.
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Mar 17, 2019 23:43:25 GMT
47: East Suffolk Council, East of England.
Another council being created in May is East Suffolk, a merger of Suffolk Coastal and Waveney. This will almost definitely be a Conservative win and will probably need a zoom in on Lowestoft. Interestingly due to these merged councils the Tories will end up with a few fewer majority councils. New boundaries: 29 wards with 55 seats. My prediction: Conservative WIN. 
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 775
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Post by yorkshireluke on Mar 18, 2019 0:40:12 GMT
46: Calderdale Council, West Yorkshire, Yorkshire and the Humber.
Calderdale is arguably Labour's best chance of a gain all night, they only need to gain 2 and there's 4 places where they're likely to do so. If they achieve this (and not lose any others) then they will have a majority in every metropolitan district in Yorkshire. Labour need a net gain of 2 to gain a majority, the Conservatives need 6. My prediction: Labour GAIN from NOC. 
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 18, 2019 9:57:37 GMT
/photo/1
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2019 10:11:32 GMT
Arkansas and South Carolina come close.
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