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Post by middleenglander on Aug 14, 2012 15:37:22 GMT
Lincolnshire CC - Nettleham & Saxilby (LD died)
2009: LD 2,012, Con 1,129, Lab 184
2005: LD 2,532, Con 1,760, Lab 934
Candidates:
Jackie Brockway - Con
Richard Coupland - Lab
Elliot Fountain - Eng Dem
Charles Shaw - LD
Howard Thompson - UKIP
David Watson - Lincolnshire Independent
Jackie Brockway is a District Councillor for Saxilby
South Gloucestershire UA, Dodington (LD resigned)
2011: LD 1340/1324, Con 452/429, Lab 294/285
2007: LD 1294/1229, Con 719/665, Lab 112/101
Candidates:
Tony Davis - LD
Kate Duffy - Con
Aaron Foot - UKIP
Michael McGrath - Lab
West Lindsey DC - Nettleham (LD died)
2011: LD 1,238/1,108, Con 804/559
2010: LD 1,763, Con 1,098
2008: LD 766, Con 757, UKIP 46, Ind 279
Candidates:
Guy Grainger - LD
Giles McNeil - Con
Howard Thompson - UKIP
Giles McNeil was the highest placed Con in 2011
West Lindsey elected by thirds until 2011 when the whole Council was elected for 4 years.
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Post by listener on Aug 16, 2012 22:58:32 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Meadowbank ward of Bradley Stoke Town Council in South Gloucestershire.
Bradley Stoke Town Council comprises 15 members elected from 7 wards – Baileys Court (2), Lakeside (2), Manor Farm (1), Meadowbank (2), Primrose Bridge (4), Stoke Brook (1) and Woodlands (3).
The council strengths were
3 May 2007: Con 13, Lib Dem 2 (7 Con were unopposed)
5 May 2011: Con 15 (all contested)
The results in Meadowbank ward were
3 May 2007: 2 Con unopposed
5 May 2011: Con 392/368, Lib Dem 346/338.
On 29 May 2012, two Con members (both in Woodlands ward) defected to UKIP, so that the current council make-up is
Con 12, UKIP 2, Vacant 1
The present by-election is caused by the resignation of Barry Mitchell, after finding he didn’t have the time to carry out his civic responsibilities. He told the Bradley Stoke Journal that it had been a difficult decision made for “personal and professional reasons”.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 16, 2012 23:07:40 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Meadowbank ward of Bradley Stoke Town Council in South Gloucestershire. Bradley Stoke Town Council comprises 15 members elected from 7 wards – Baileys Court (2), Lakeside (2), Manor Farm (1), Meadowbank (2), Primrose Bridge (4), Stoke Brook (1) and Woodlands (3). The council strengths were 3 May 2007: Con 13, Lib Dem 2 (7 Con were unopposed) 5 May 2011: Con 15 (all contested) The results in Meadowbank ward were 3 May 2007: 2 Con unopposed 5 May 2011: Con 392/368, Lib Dem 346/338. On 29 May 2012, two Con members (both in Woodlands ward) defected to UKIP, so that the current council make-up is Con 12, UKIP 2, Vacant 1 The present by-election is caused by the resignation of Barry Mitchell, after finding he didn’t have the time to carry out his civic responsibilities. He told the Bradley Stoke Journal that it had been a difficult decision made for “personal and professional reasons”. Nominations are: John Hardwick - Con Robin Horsfall - Lab Caroline Sullivan - UKIP Note no Lib Dem |
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Post by independentukip on Aug 17, 2012 0:29:34 GMT
This TC election should be very keenly fought considering the recent defections to UKIP. I won't venture to suggest a UKIP gain as I have zero local knowledge beyond what is being played out in the local media. If the community are on the side of Ben Walker I would expect a UKIP gain. If not I expect an easy tory hold.
The report by Listener missed a significant recent development which was the decision of Kim Harris to join Ben Walker & Ed Rose in defecting to UKIP. That was reported on 24th July though I don't know the precise date it took place. The greater significance of that is she represents the Meadowbank ward up for election in September.
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Post by independentukip on Aug 31, 2012 15:55:14 GMT
As I predicted earlier both UKIP and Tories are taking this Town Council election very seriously. www.bradleystokejournal.co.uk/2012/08/31/big-guns-brought-in-bradley-stoke-bye-lection/"The Conservatives, keen to avoid what would be the embarrassing loss of a fourth seat within as many months, have had two of their top local politicians, Jack Lopresti MP and Cllr John Calway (Leader of South Gloucestershire Council), pounding the streets in support of their candidate Paul Hardwick. The local UKIP team, led by former Conservative Town Mayor Ben Walker, has responded by busing in one of their party’s National Executive Committee, Neil Hamilton (a disgraced former MP turned media celebrity), to canvass alongside their candidate Caroline Sullivan." I'm not sure which party benefits most from having Neil Hamilton around. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 6, 2012 22:26:24 GMT
@weirdlysentient - Lib Dems HOLD Dodington ward with 787, 57% of vote #winninghere #aldc #southglos
@sglabour - Labour up into 2nd place in Dodington by-election. Tories pushed into 4th place.
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 6, 2012 22:30:29 GMT
@markwilliams_LE - talk around the hall is that the lib dems are expected to retain their @lincolnshirecc seat after the death of ray sellars.
@markwilliams_LE - apparently UKIP have received a "surprisingly high" number of votes...
@thebsjournal - @carrie0 reports Conservative win in Bradley Stoke Meadowbank by-election, UKIP second, Labour third
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2012 22:32:02 GMT
jeez, if we have done that well in Dodington few would have predicted that
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Sept 6, 2012 22:34:45 GMT
Realistically it'd only take a 3.6% swing from Con to Lab since '11 to swap places.
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Post by marksenior on Sept 6, 2012 22:35:59 GMT
Dodington
LD 787 Lab 243 UKIP 213 Con 139
Not really Labour doing well more the Conservatives doing very badly
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2012 22:36:57 GMT
jeez, if we have done that well in Dodington few would have predicted that How well is 'that well'? Depends how close the three other parties are. If LDs won 57% then its possible to come second with as little as 15% of the vote, which is around what most people here predicted. I think we can safely say the Conservatives have done very badly, but not much else without a proper detialed result |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 6, 2012 22:37:33 GMT
Dodington LD 757 Lab 243 UKIP 213 Con 139 Not really Labour doing well more the Conservatives doing very badly LD 757 or 787 as reported earlier? |
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Post by independentukip on Sept 6, 2012 22:38:07 GMT
jeez, if we have done that well in Dodington few would have predicted that My quick skim through the predictions suggests I was the only one to think Labour would come 2nd. Didn't think tories would come in 4th though. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 6, 2012 22:38:13 GMT
Dodington LD 757 Lab 243 UKIP 213 Con 139 Not really Labour doing well more the Conservatives doing very badly LD 757 or 787 as reported earlier? Typo corrected |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2012 22:38:48 GMT
Yes an awful Conservative result
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2012 22:41:47 GMT
jeez, if we have done that well in Dodington few would have predicted that My quick skim through the predictions suggests I was the only one to think Labour would come 2nd. Didn't think tories would come in 4th though. You were but you were also furthest from predicting the correct Labour share than anyone else with 12.4 faults on the Labour share. Only ianrobo came close with 11.6 faults for understimating their share to a similar extent |
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Post by independentukip on Sept 6, 2012 22:43:33 GMT
My quick skim through the predictions suggests I was the only one to think Labour would come 2nd. Didn't think tories would come in 4th though. You were but you were also furthest from predicting the correct Labour share than anyone else with 12.4 faults on the Labour share. Only ianrobo came close with 11.6 faults for understimating their share to a similar extent No bonuses on losing candidates order I suppose?! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2012 22:49:03 GMT
Fraid not. I think there was some attempt 9back when the contest started)~ to try and work in scores for predicting the correct ordering of candidates but it got too complicated
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 6, 2012 23:02:30 GMT
Mark Williams @markwilliams_LE
this is starting to look very good for jackie brockway and the tories... @lincolnshirecc
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 6, 2012 23:02:34 GMT
Mark Williams of the Lincolnshire Echo now saying it's looking good for the Conservatives in the Nettleham and Saxilby byelection.
Come on, I've got ten points riding on it ...
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