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Post by middleenglander on Sept 6, 2012 23:34:43 GMT
½ hour and no one posted anything. Have they all gone home?
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Post by independentukip on Sept 6, 2012 23:35:30 GMT
Mark Williams of the Lincolnshire Echo now saying it's looking good for the Conservatives in the Nettleham and Saxilby byelection. Come on, I've got ten points riding on it ... It looks like you've got your ten points: "it appears brockway is running away with this... shaw a comfy second for lib dems and UKIP and labour fighting it out for third..." |
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Post by brianjrvs on Sept 6, 2012 23:43:28 GMT
Conservative 1026
Lib Dem 600
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 6, 2012 23:45:01 GMT
In the 1960's the Chief Executive and Returning Officer of Gainsborough UDC, a forerunner of West Lindsey, was William McIntyre who shall we say was rather pedantic at election times. Then one day a by-election for the County Council saw 5 votes separating Conservative, Liberals and Labour - something like 661 to 666. It was a wonder the result was announced by the end of the year the amount of checking and rechecking that went on.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Sept 6, 2012 23:47:21 GMT
;D
Doesn't sound good for Labour, if they're left competing with UKIP for third?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2012 0:01:58 GMT
In the 1960's the Chief Executive and Returning Officer of Gainsborough UDC, a forerunner of West Lindsey, was William McIntyre who shall we say was rather pedantic at election times. Then one day a by-election for the County Council saw 5 votes separating Conservative, Liberals and Labour - something like 661 to 666. It was a wonder the result was announced by the end of the year the amount of checking and rechecking that went on. Something like that must have gone on at Paddington in 1979. It took them ages to announce the result although the margin was as much as 106 votes. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 7, 2012 0:02:50 GMT
It's a rural ward in Lincolnshire in a safe Tory seat. It's probably an underperformance, but the potential isn't that great anyway.
I wonder if the talk about an easy Lib Dem hold reflects neither party having good voter ID, or whether the local LDs just got lazy. Busing a candidate in from Rasen doesn't seem like a great idea for a ward like this.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 7, 2012 0:07:15 GMT
I'd imagine that the Tory swept Saxilby (her being originally elected as a Lib Dem councillor probably helped as well). Wish I'd noticed that the Lib Dem in the District election is from Market Rasen, not Nettleham. I hope that won't affect the result but it may well.
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Post by brianjrvs on Sept 7, 2012 0:08:42 GMT
The district result was:
Conservative 656
Lib Dem 513
UKIP 177
Turn out 31.65%
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 7, 2012 0:10:06 GMT
It's a rural ward in Lincolnshire in a safe Tory seat. It's probably an underperformance, but the potential isn't that great anyway. I wonder if the talk about an easy Lib Dem hold reflects neither party having good voter ID, or whether the local LDs just got lazy. Busing a candidate in from Rasen doesn't seem like a great idea for a ward like this. The Lib Dem candidate for the County Seat came from downtown Lincoln, not too far from Saxilby but a long way from Nettleham. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 7, 2012 0:11:23 GMT
It's a rural ward in Lincolnshire in a safe Tory seat. It's probably an underperformance, but the potential isn't that great anyway. I wonder if the talk about an easy Lib Dem hold reflects neither party having good voter ID, or whether the local LDs just got lazy. Busing a candidate in from Rasen doesn't seem like a great idea for a ward like this. More like outer Lincoln suburbs these two villages. Nettleham in particular is largely made up of commuter estates. Our county candidate was from Lincoln itself which I think is a particularly bad choice. Rasen in that context probably isn't quite so bad! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 7, 2012 0:11:59 GMT
Ah, confused the district and county candidates. Regardless, I can't imagine an address in Lincoln is any more helpful than one in Rasen for giving the impression of being local.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Sept 7, 2012 0:16:09 GMT
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 7, 2012 0:16:35 GMT
The district result was: Conservative 656 Lib Dem 513 UKIP 177 Turn out 31.65% Very, very bad.  We should not be losing seats like these, in authorities like these to the Tories at this stage with no Labour involvement. Dodington is what should be happening. |
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Post by stepney on Sept 7, 2012 7:24:34 GMT
Something like that must have gone on at Paddington in 1979. It took them ages to announce the result although the margin was as much as 106 votes. Somewhat off topic, but I think the count at Paddington was suspended overnight. I understand Central Office got every professional agent in London they could down to the Porchester Hall next morning to scrutineer. |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 7, 2012 7:41:35 GMT
Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby:
Con 1026 - 43.4%, +9.4% on 2009
Lib Dem 600 - 25.4%, -35.2% on 2009
UKIP 266 - 11.2% from nowhere
Lab 257 - 10.9%, +5.3%
Ind 196 - 8.3% from nowhere
Eng Dem 21 - 0.9% from nowhere
Swing 22.3% Lib Dem to Conservative since 2009, 16.4% since 2005.
Lab share down 7.0% since 2005.
West Lindsey, Nettleham - amended for an incorrect Conservative vote reported last night (565 not 656)
Con 565 - 45.0%, +5.6% on "top" 2011, +8.3% on "average" 2011, +6.6% on 2010 & +4.0% on 2008
Lib Dem 513 - 40.9%, -19.7% on "top" 2011, -22.4% on "average 2011, -20.7% on 2010 & -0.6% on 2008
UKIP 177 - 14.1%, from nowhere although polled 2.5% in 2008
Independent also polled 15.1% in 2008.
Swing Lib Dem to Conservative some 13% to 15% since 2010 and 2011 whilst around 2¼% since 2008 when there was a very close result.
South Gloucestershire, Dodington:
Lib Dem 787 - 56.9%, some -7½% since 2011 and -4% since 2007
Lab 243 - 17.6%, some +3½% since 2011 and +12% since 2007
UKIP 213 - 15.4% from nowhere
Con 139 - 10.1%, some -11½% since 2011 and -23.5% since 2007
Swing Lib Dem to Lab ~5½% since 2011 but Conservative to Lib Dem circa 10% since 2007.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 7, 2012 9:47:45 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Meadowbank ward of Bradley Stoke Town Council in South Gloucestershire. Bradley Stoke Town Council comprises 15 members elected from 7 wards – Baileys Court (2), Lakeside (2), Manor Farm (1), Meadowbank (2), Primrose Bridge (4), Stoke Brook (1) and Woodlands (3). The council strengths were 3 May 2007: Con 13, Lib Dem 2 (7 Con were unopposed) 5 May 2011: Con 15 (all contested) The results in Meadowbank ward were 3 May 2007: 2 Con unopposed 5 May 2011: Con 392/368, Lib Dem 346/338. On 29 May 2012, two Con members (both in Woodlands ward) defected to UKIP, so that the current council make-up is Con 12, UKIP 2, Vacant 1 The present by-election is caused by the resignation of Barry Mitchell, after finding he didn’t have the time to carry out his civic responsibilities. He told the Bradley Stoke Journal that it had been a difficult decision made for “personal and professional reasons”. Nominations are: John Hardwick - Con Robin Horsfall - Lab Caroline Sullivan - UKIP Note no Lib Dem Con 251 - 49.4% UKIP 140 - 27.6% Lab 117 - 23.0% |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 7, 2012 11:52:03 GMT
Me thinks the Nettleham & Saxilby result must have really blown the mind of the ALDC website - they have a Labour gain from Lib Dems on a swing of 47.8%!! They appear to have fed the Lincoln East result from last month into yesterday's contest.
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Post by erlend on Sept 7, 2012 12:39:51 GMT
It appears to have been taken down as a result now!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 8, 2012 11:05:57 GMT
Looking back on some old byelection results, I just noticed something about the Lincolnshire byelection which was missed and may have been very significant.
Jackie Brockway, who gained the Lincolnshire County Council seat for the Conservatives, had been elected to West Lindsey District Council in 2007 in Saxilby ward as the Liberal Democrat candidate. In summer 2009 she resigned from the Liberal Democrats and also (very unusually) resigned her seat, successfully standing for re-election as the Conservative candidate.
2007: Brockway (L Dem) 934, McNeill (C) 709, Wells (UKIP) 86.
2009 byelection: Brockway (C) 722, Woolley (L Dem) 407, Pearson (UKIP) 62.
2011 (two seats): Brockway (C) 1,155, Cotton (L Dem) 921, Sharples (C) 827, Walker (L Dem) 369.
And guess who the successful Conservative was in the Nettleham ward byelection in West Lindsey? None other than Giles McNeill, who was the Conservative candidate in Saxilby in 2007.
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