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Post by Merseymike on Jul 29, 2016 10:58:00 GMT
It's surprising on one level that noone would stand as the seat was largely held via a personal vote so the candidate probably wouldnt have won anyway
but how appealing is being the only Labour representative on a rural District council?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 29, 2016 11:50:21 GMT
The seat wasn't a personal vote, it was held by the fact that the Greens only ran 2 candidates. It's the sort of place Corbyn's Labour could probably do decently.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 29, 2016 12:03:02 GMT
I'm not sure why you think this ward should be good for the Greens. I used to be a Housing officer for a patch which included the ladder, and trendy Hornsey, Crouch End or Muswell Hill it isn't, nor is it the traditional working class of Tottenham. It was a very ordinary slice of 100 year old terraced housing, with a good mix of owner occupation, private trenting and social renting - and rather more of the latter than non-Londoners might expect from a visual inspection. John, Well I live next door to it and have done so for twenty five years, and although it certainly isn't Muswell Hill, the ladder and Green Lanes are now trendy and upwardly mobile in a way they certainly weren't when I arrived in the borough. Indeed given the number of young metro professionals it should be a better ward for the Greens than the ones you mention. If the Lib Dems can make progress in it to the extent of winning councillors then the Greens should certainly be able to do so. More and more of the privately rented HMOs are being sold off and converted back into family houses and / or upmarket flats. This is happening in my ward (Noel Park) too, all along Turnpike Lane and Hornsey Park Road. Happy to concede that my knowledge is somewhat historical, and London has changed fast over the last 20 years. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2016 12:07:58 GMT
John, Well I live next door to it and have done so for twenty five years, and although it certainly isn't Muswell Hill, the ladder and Green Lanes are now trendy and upwardly mobile in a way they certainly weren't when I arrived in the borough. Indeed given the number of young metro professionals it should be a better ward for the Greens than the ones you mention. If the Lib Dems can make progress in it to the extent of winning councillors then the Greens should certainly be able to do so. More and more of the privately rented HMOs are being sold off and converted back into family houses and / or upmarket flats. This is happening in my ward (Noel Park) too, all along Turnpike Lane and Hornsey Park Road. Happy to concede that my knowledge is somewhat historical, and London has changed fast over the last 20 years. And faster and faster all the time John. When I moved originally I was advised very strongly not to go into the "Salisbury" pub. Now it is a great pub with good beer and thankfully all Victorian decor left unspoilt. I feel distinctly old and grey when I go in there, but as me and my mate often win the quiz, that sort of compensates.  Harringay ward, was of course mostly a Tory ward until the late 70s and one of the first Labour councillors was some guy called Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder whatever happened to him? |
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 29, 2016 12:11:29 GMT
During the coalition, the Lib Dems lost the progressive protest vote to the Green Party and the populist protest vote to UKIP. Labour lost the Stop the War vote to the Green Party. The progressive protest vote is now coming back to the Lib Dems, and Corbyn is getting back the Stop the War vote, although UKIP will keep the populist protest vote forever now. Actually, prior to the coalition, we'd retained some of the Stop the War vote due to how our MPs voted in 2003; we lost that to Labour temporarily, boosting them in the polls, before they, in turn, lost that to the Greens (all within the course of five years). The Labour detour is key here, because it gave many Labour members false confidence in their own leadership in the middle of the government's term, and quite possibly was responsible for the political survival of Ed Miliband until 2015. As for the populist vote, UKIP may have it, but I don't think they're going to weaponise it very well, so it will probably become less relevant than it once was within our party. Despite the number of good UKIP posters on here, the leadership is generally mediocre, and the organisation is poor (see the the scattershot approach to their election campaigning), and the turnout in their core vote is weak in general elections (a key difference to the EU referendum). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2016 12:11:40 GMT
Terrible result for Rod Toms, who was only 26 votes behind in 2013. Good for the Lib Dems on very low share of the vote, but winning is everything! Ken Yep, the third-placed Independent, was the Lid Dem candidate in 2013. There was no Lib Dem candidate in 2013 !!!!!! He was the Lib Dem candidate in 2009 I meant 2009....brain slip! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 29, 2016 12:20:22 GMT
During the coalition, the Lib Dems lost the progressive protest vote to the Green Party and the populist protest vote to UKIP. Labour lost the Stop the War vote to the Green Party. The progressive protest vote is now coming back to the Lib Dems, and Corbyn is getting back the Stop the War vote, although UKIP will keep the populist protest vote forever now. There's no forever in politics. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jul 29, 2016 12:22:27 GMT
During the coalition, the Lib Dems lost the progressive protest vote to the Green Party and the populist protest vote to UKIP. Labour lost the Stop the War vote to the Green Party. The progressive protest vote is now coming back to the Lib Dems, and Corbyn is getting back the Stop the War vote, although UKIP will keep the populist protest vote forever now. There's no forever in politics. It only feels like it sometimes. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 29, 2016 12:25:48 GMT
Happy to concede that my knowledge is somewhat historical, and London has changed fast over the last 20 years. And faster and faster all the time John. When I moved originally I was advised very strongly not to go into the "Salisbury" pub. Now it is a great pub with good beer and thankfully all Victorian decor left unspoilt. I feel distinctly old and grey when I go in there, but as me and my mate often win the quiz, that sort of compensates. Harringay ward, was of course mostly a Tory ward until the late 70s and one of the first Labour councillors was some guy called Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder whatever happened to him? I know what you mean. I moved back to London for work in 2012 after a decade away, and two of the pubs in Walthamstow that had a well-deserved bad reputation had turned into just the same sort of trendy outlet with good food and good beer. Walthamstow was noticeably up market with the sort of young professionals who wouldn't have been seen dead there when I was young, although Leyton where I lived in the 1990s was as down at heel as ever. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2016 12:41:30 GMT
Deej Sullivan in my view has done more than "challenged" Ben Bradshaw's version of events, he's refuted it altogether. Ben Bradshaw is a mischief-maker. As people may have noted by now, I at least try to be diplomatic  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2016 13:27:02 GMT
I slightly wonder what the point is of a CLP if they can't find anyone willing to stand in the only ward in the district where they are actually competitive.
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Post by mrhell on Jul 29, 2016 13:33:54 GMT
This account of things has been challenged by Deej Sullivan, a local who helped the not-Labour Independent's campaign. Their piece is now up on politics.co.uk and is at least worth a read. The article still reflects badly on the local party even if the stated reason is different. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2016 13:37:01 GMT
Well yes, as per @strinity 's comment just above. It would be nice not to see everything shoved into a crude Corbynista/anti-Corbyn dichotomy, though.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 29, 2016 14:08:13 GMT
All accounts taken together reflect terribly on everyone involved. Hooray.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 29, 2016 18:14:01 GMT
Seems there is no Labour candidate in Totnes because all the time of the selection meeting was used to debate a confidence motion about Corbyn. The CLP chair nominated the Independent, however. I've thought about this and I'm sure this cannot be the case. Confidence motions in Corbyn, either in the PLP or locally, were only ever an issue after Benn was sacked in the early hours of the morning of Sunday 26th June. If Totnes Labour party were going to select a candidate for the by-election for the by-election, and leave enough time to submit nomination papers, then the decision about the candidate would have to be made well before 26th June. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 29, 2016 18:39:43 GMT
Seems there is no Labour candidate in Totnes because all the time of the selection meeting was used to debate a confidence motion about Corbyn. The CLP chair nominated the Independent, however. I've thought about this and I'm sure this cannot be the case. Confidence motions in Corbyn, either in the PLP or locally, were only ever an issue after Benn was sacked in the early hours of the morning of Sunday 26th June. If Totnes Labour party were going to select a candidate for the by-election for the by-election, and leave enough time to submit nomination papers, then the decision about the candidate would have to be made well before 26th June. Which was the report of a former district councillor, the only one avaliable at the time, we got more reports later. Current version seems to be no one was interested, but a young lady which expressed interest well into the nomination period, member since less than a year, that the local party wasn't interested in nominating. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 29, 2016 23:56:12 GMT
Cornwall, Newlyn & Goonhavern - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Liberal Democrat | 247 | 24.4% | from nowhere | -1.1% | Conservative | 234 | 23.1% | -23.0% | -17.2% | Independent Yeo * | 163 | 16.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Mebyon Kernow | 161 | 15.9% | -28.1% | from nowhere | Labour | 77 | 7.6% | -2.2% | +3.5% | Independent Tucker | 75 | 7.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Thomas | 54 | 5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -23.9% | Liberal |
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| -6.1% | Total votes | 1,011 |
| 84% | 66% |
* was Liberal Democrat candidate in 2009 Swing since 2013 not meaningful and since 2009 Conservative to Liberal Democrat 8% although of limited relevance
Council now 43 Liberal Democrat, 34 Independent, 30 Conservative, 8 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 1 Non Aligned, 1 Vacant
East Hampshire, The Hangers & Forest - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 236 | 45.3% | -23.7% | -27.2% | -34.0% | Liberal Democrat | 227 | 43.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Justice & Anti Corruption * | 41 | 7.9% | from nowhere | -19.6% | from nowhere | Labour | 17 | 3.3% | -9.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -18.0% |
| -20.7% | Total votes | 521 |
| 37% | 52% | 62% |
* Don Jerrard stood as Justice & Anti Corruption in 2016 and 2011 but as Independent in 2007 Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat Haringey, Harringay - Labour hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,054 | 46.2% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +8.7% | +9.1% | Liberal Democrat | 765 | 33.6% | +3.7% | +3.3% | -5.5% | -5.5% | Green | 325 | 14.3% | -2.3% | -2.6% | +3.8% | +4.4% | Conservative | 99 | 4.3% | -1.2% | -1.6% | -3.4% | -4.0% | UKIP | 36 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -5.5% | -4.9% |
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| -5.1% | -5.7% | Total votes | 2,279 |
| 58% | 65% | 40% | 44% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Labour 0% / ½% since 2014 but ~7% since 2010 Council now 48 Labour, 9 Liberal Democrat Newport, St Julian's - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 948 | 53.7% | +11.6% | +11.9% | +4.4% | +5.5% | Labour | 432 | 24.4% | -20.3% | -21.3% | +3.4% | 3.2% | UKIP | 156 | 8.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 135 | 7.6% | -5.5% | -4.9% | -17.3% | -17.9% | Plaid Cymru | 71 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -0.7% | -1.1% | Green | 25 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,767 |
| 78% | 82% | 76% | 81% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 16% since 2012 and ~ ½% / 1% since 2008
Council now 37 Labour, 10 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat
South Hams, Totnes - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour who did not defend the seat
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 812 | 44.2% | +14.6% | +26.7% | +25.7% | Green | 499 | 27.1% | -3.0% | -6.4% | -5.4% | Independent | 391 | 21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 137 | 7.4% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.9% | Labour |
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| -22.8% | -19.2% | -18.8% | Independent |
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| -10.5% | -11.1% | TUSC |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% | Total votes | 1,839
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| 97% | 28% | 30% |
Swing Green to Liberal Democrat 8.8% since October 2015 by-election and ~16% since May 2015 Council now 25 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green Sutton, Carshalton Central - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,250 | 43.4% | +5.1% | +5.7% | -3.9% | -4.9% | Conservative | 1,061 | 36.9% | +11.6% | +11.7% | +0.4% | -0.4% | Green | 211 | 7.3% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +1.6% | Labour | 176 | 6.1% | -3.1% | -3.2% | -3.2% | -2.5% | UKIP | 150 | 5.2% | -10.5% | -11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Christian | 29 | 1.0% | -1.1% | -1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -1.7% | -1.8% |
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| Total votes | 2,877 |
| 67% | 71% | 51% | 55% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~3% since 2014 and ~2% since 2010 Council now 44 Liberal Democrat, 8 Conservative, 2 Independent Wychavon, Droitwich West - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 281 | 41.9% | -2.9% | -1.8% | -10.3% | -9.6% | Labour | 161 | 24.0% | -13.8% | -14.6% | -23.8% | -24.5% | UKIP | 132 | 19.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 97 | 14.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -17.4% | -17.7% |
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| Total votes | 671 |
| 31% | 31% | 52% | Row 7 column 7 |
Swing Labour to Conservative 5½% / 6½% since 2015 and 6½% / 7½% since 2011
Council now 39 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 1 UKIP
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Post by davidfrederickson on Jul 30, 2016 7:55:59 GMT
Typos: Harringay (Haringey) votes add up to 2,279. Totnes (South Hams) total votes in wrong column. (And thanks as always for your brilliant tables, middleenglander.)
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 30, 2016 8:30:26 GMT
Typos: Harringay (Haringey) votes add up to 2,279. Totnes (South Hams) total votes in wrong column. (And thanks as always for your brilliant tables, middleenglander.) Thanks now corrected. The aim is to have a dispassionate analysis of the week's results in one post not only for immediate consumption but as a record for future use. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 30, 2016 9:18:54 GMT
Pretty good set of results from a Liberal point of view. Just as well really, since I see that in the next bunch we only have three candidates standing in 7 wards, and one of those (East Brighton) is apparently a Labour fiefdom (according to a very informative ward profile on the Brighton Argus website that popped up from a casual google - if only all local papers did something similar!) Just the sort of place where there should be a challenge, of course...
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Harringay ward, was of course mostly a Tory ward until the late 70s and one of the first Labour councillors was some guy called Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder whatever happened to him? 
