maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Jul 27, 2016 23:52:26 GMT
If we believe the claim than the Ind candidate is Labour (which got mentionned nowhere by the candidate and seems to have first appeared on the CLP Facebook page last night), swings would be +2.1 and -1.5.
Seems Labour voters voted for her in any case, given their vote shares is quite similar.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 27, 2016 23:58:08 GMT
East Hampshire, The Hangers & Forest - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 236 | 45.3% | -23.7% | -27.2% | -34.0% | Liberal Democrat | 227 | 43.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Justice & Anti Corruption * | 41 | 7.9% | from nowhere | -19.6% | from nowhere | Labour | 17 | 3.3% | -9.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -18.0% |
| -20.7% | Total votes | 521 |
| 37% | 52% | 62% |
* Don Jerrard stood as Justice & Anti Corruption in 2016 and 2011 but as Independent in 2007 Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat South Hams, Totnes - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour who did not defend the seat| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 812 | 44.2% | +14.6% | +26.7% | +25.7% | Green | 499 | 27.1% | -3.0% | -6.4% | -5.4% | Independent | 391 | 21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 137 | 7.4% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.9% | Labour |
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| -22.8% | -19.2% | -18.8% | Independent |
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| -3.3% |
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| UKIP |
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| -10.5% | -11.1% | TUSC |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% | Total votes |
| 1,839 | 97% | 28% | 30% |
Swing Green to Liberal Democrat 8.8% since October 2015 by-election and ~16% since May 2015 Council now 25 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2016 0:05:58 GMT
A google reveals that the independent is an 18 year old shortly to go to university. Her twitter account suggests she is pro Corbyn.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 28, 2016 8:30:06 GMT
East Hampshire, The Hangers & Forest - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 236 | 45.3% | -23.7% | -27.2% | -34.0% | Liberal Democrat | 227 | 43.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Justice & Anti Corruption * | 41 | 7.9% | from nowhere | -19.6% | from nowhere | Labour | 17 | 3.3% | -9.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -18.0% |
| -20.7% | Total votes | 521 |
| 37% | 52% | 62% |
* Don Jerrard stood as Justice & Anti Corruption in 2016 and 2011 but as Independent in 2007 Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat South Hams, Totnes - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour who did not defend the seat| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 812 | 44.2% | +14.6% | +26.7% | +25.7% | Green | 499 | 27.1% | -3.0% | -6.4% | -5.4% | Independent | 391 | 21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 137 | 7.4% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.9% | Labour |
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| -22.8% | -19.2% | -18.8% | Independent |
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| -3.3% |
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| UKIP |
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| -10.5% | -11.1% | TUSC |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% | Total votes |
| 1,839 | 97% | 28% | 30% |
Swing Green to Liberal Democrat 8.8% since October 2015 by-election and ~16% since May 2015 Council now 25 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green I'm puzzled. Excuse my ignorance, but why do you say the swing in Eat Hants was not meaningful when the Conservative vote share has fallen by over 20% and has been falling since 2007? I it the low turnout, or the fact that the 2nd and 3rd placed parties did not previously stand, or what? I'd be grateful for clarification. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 28, 2016 8:38:55 GMT
East Hampshire, The Hangers & Forest - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 236 | 45.3% | -23.7% | -27.2% | -34.0% | Liberal Democrat | 227 | 43.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Justice & Anti Corruption * | 41 | 7.9% | from nowhere | -19.6% | from nowhere | Labour | 17 | 3.3% | -9.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -18.0% |
| -20.7% | Total votes | 521 |
| 37% | 52% | 62% |
* Don Jerrard stood as Justice & Anti Corruption in 2016 and 2011 but as Independent in 2007 Swing not meaningful Council now 42 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat South Hams, Totnes - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour who did not defend the seat| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 812 | 44.2% | +14.6% | +26.7% | +25.7% | Green | 499 | 27.1% | -3.0% | -6.4% | -5.4% | Independent | 391 | 21.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 137 | 7.4% | -6.7% | -6.6% | -5.9% | Labour |
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| -22.8% | -19.2% | -18.8% | Independent |
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| -3.3% |
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| UKIP |
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| -10.5% | -11.1% | TUSC |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% | Total votes |
| 1,839 | 97% | 28% | 30% |
Swing Green to Liberal Democrat 8.8% since October 2015 by-election and ~16% since May 2015 Council now 25 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green I'm puzzled. Excuse my ignorance, but why do you say the swing in Eat Hants was not meaningful when the Conservative vote share has fallen by over 20% and has been falling since 2007? I it the low turnout, or the fact that the 2nd and 3rd placed parties did not previously stand, or what? I'd be grateful for clarification. Second, and in this case third, candidates did not stand in previous election. |
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Post by samdwebber on Jul 28, 2016 11:08:21 GMT
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Post by cuthbertbede on Jul 28, 2016 11:17:17 GMT
www.southhams.gov.uk/article/11987/By-Election---Totnes-Town-Council---ResultsAll three Greens & the Labour candidate: ALLEN Georgina No Description 372 BARKER Margaret Ann LABOUR PARTY 465 Elected ELLIOT-SMITH Mark Arnold GREEN PARTY 495 Elected HART-WILLIAMS Nicholas J GREEN PARTY 480 Elected LANGMAID Alan No Description 206 SAYANY Kamal INDEPENDENT 269 SWEETT Joanna Marie GREEN PARTY 531 Elected TOOMEY Adrian INDEPENDENT 290 Edit: the two independents here shared their proposers and seconders with the Labour candidate (and the 'independent' in the district election). Are they also Labour in disguise? Edit 2: their Facebook page confirms this. Edit 3: in the interests of fairness, I should point out that Langmaid appears to be a UKIP member and activist.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 28, 2016 11:21:53 GMT
Is anyone able to find out exactly what happened in Totnes? Did the selection meeting wind up being all leadership motion and no selection or did they select a candidate who wasn't technically eligible for a Labour nomination and then fail to pass the resolutions to get a waiver? Or something else?
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Post by samdwebber on Jul 28, 2016 11:44:00 GMT
Many thanks! Very useful.
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Post by mrhell on Jul 28, 2016 12:17:20 GMT
Sorry about three Twitter links but it says it better than I can.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 28, 2016 15:32:26 GMT
Do we know what party the former councillors for Totnes Town Council were?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 28, 2016 15:57:41 GMT
Do we know what party the former councillors for Totnes Town Council were? 2 Ind, 2 Lab So, went from 8 Ind, 5 Lab, 3 Greens to 6 Ind, 6 Greens, 4 Lab. And Greens had already gained a seat over Independent on a by-election on December 23 2015. |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Jul 28, 2016 20:34:55 GMT
The Plymouth Herald is reporting that Labour has launched an inquiry into what exactly its Totnes branch were up to ( www.plymouthherald.co.uk/labour-launches-inquiry-into-devon-branch-backing-independent-candidates/story-29562151-detail/story.html). The text of the story actually has Ben Bradshaw saying that "I'm sure there would be people at Labour headquarters who would be looking into this" and Labour commenting that they are "deeply concerned that no candidate was selected by the local party to represent Labour" and are making "immediate inquiries as to why this happened", so there appears to be a certain amount of inflation in the headline. The article contains quotes from the candidate herself, confirming that she offered herself as the Labour candidate (but couldn't be because of the 1 year rule, though Labour members here and elsewhere have said that that is flexible). She was put forward the day before and only got the paperwork in 45 minutes before the deadline, denies that not running under the Labour label cost her the seat and claims that there was no Labour funding for her leaflets, just "advice [and] support". She does congratulate the Lib Dem candidate: "The Lib Dems won by a landslide. You could have put my votes together with the Green votes and we still would not have won, […] John Birch is hugely popular, it was a well-deserved victory which a lot of people are trying to take away from him." |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 28, 2016 20:37:10 GMT
Well, she has a point (and Jack Allum is wrong than it "almost certainly cost a seat to Labour" than John Birch is very popular and was the favorite to win that. Without him running, I suppose Greens would have won, not Labour, in any case.
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Post by cuthbertbede on Jul 28, 2016 20:38:42 GMT
Well, she has a point (and Jack Allum is wrong than it "almost certainly cost a seat to Labour" than John Birch is very popular and was the favorite to win that. Without him running, I suppose Greens would have won, not Labour, in any case. Yes, some of the response to this in Labour quarters appears to have been a little over the top. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 28, 2016 21:39:19 GMT
Well, she has a point (and Jack Allum is wrong than it "almost certainly cost a seat to Labour" than John Birch is very popular and was the favorite to win that. Without him running, I suppose Greens would have won, not Labour, in any case. Yes, some of the response to this in Labour quarters appears to have been a little over the top. Well, I think that's sheer incompetence or malice for local party. A inquiry is needed, yes (and Labour might have been close if the local party was competent, which it's clearly not right now). It's "we lost a seat because of that". It was probably lost anyways (but it could been used to begin preparing one of the town councillor for a run to district in 2019, since results of the last years show than personal votes are important in Totnes). |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 28, 2016 21:48:16 GMT
The Harringay result is expected by midnight.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 28, 2016 22:08:24 GMT
Britain Elects Tweeting Lib Dems HOLD St Julian's, Newport
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 28, 2016 22:10:01 GMT
NEWPORT St Julian’s
Carmel Townsend (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 948
Phil Hourahine (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 432
Andrew Byers (UKIP Wales) 156
Carol Bader (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 135
Chris Priest (Plaid Cymru The Party of Wales) 71
Mirka Virtanen (Wales Green Party) 25
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 28, 2016 22:10:28 GMT
LD HOLD in St Julian's, Newport
LD 948 (53.7%; +11.6)
Lab 432 (24.4%; -20.4)
UKIP 156 (8.8%)
Con 135 (7.6%; -5.5)
PC 71 (4.0%)
Grn 25 (1.4%)
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