maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 15, 2016 8:34:56 GMT
Unofficial figures per a handwritten note Tweeted to Britain Elects are: LD 620 Lab 66 Ind (Jones) 73 Ind (Kitto) 242 Con 202 Ind (Theobald) 181 Cornwall has had a few decent Lib Dem results recently. After their general election defeats, there are full council elections in 2017. Lib Dem gains look likely. I wonder if they can get close to overall control? The issue is than the largest "group" after last election was Independents. They are hard to beat unless they retire (see, the "let's kill disabled kids" guy was reelected, after all). In by-elections, that's not a factor, as there is no incumbent. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2016 10:21:19 GMT
Just curious does anyone think the Cons will get a Theresa style bounce in today's elections or will it make no difference. Apart from the Selby result, not that much sign all in all? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 10:30:59 GMT
If there is a bounce it will probably take a couple of weeks to start filtering through into results.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2016 10:34:03 GMT
Back in the summer of 2007 the "Brown bounce" in the polls generally wasn't *that* obvious in council by-election results.
(though there were exceptions, notably one week's results in September that helped get the "early election" frenzy going)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 15, 2016 11:10:15 GMT
Just curious does anyone think the Cons will get a Theresa style bounce in today's elections or will it make no difference. Apart from the Selby result, not that much sign all in all? I would assume the main factor in Selby isn't a May bounce, but rather UKIP not being on ballot, unlike 2015. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2016 11:33:57 GMT
At a parliamentary level, there were signs from the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by-elections that the Brown Bounce in summer 2007 was affecting their outcomes, judging by the subsequently large pro-Tory swings in those two seats in 2010. I'd have thought looking at council by-elections for a Theresa Bounce, where local factors are of much more significance, is somewhat futile.
I would keep an eye on the national opinion polls. Even if they always seem to end up wide off the mark these days, they will indicate any movement.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 15, 2016 12:22:14 GMT
But what is notable from this set of local by-elections and actually all post-Brexit is that the patterns have not looked remotely like those predicted and insisted on in media HOT TAKES.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2016 12:28:33 GMT
Yes, we are still waiting for that UKIP tidal wave obliterating Labour in its "northern heartlands".
(and since people like to make parallels, the historic Labour-SNP shift in Scotland was clearly underway within weeks of that referendum)
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 15, 2016 13:59:15 GMT
Bradford, Wibsey - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,207 | 50.7% | +3.8% | +7.5% | +8.9% | -2.2% | UKIP | 655 | 27.5% | +6.5% | -1.4% | -11.1% | +3.9% | Conservative | 451 | 18.9% | +3.4% | -0.8% | +4.7% | +6.9% | Liberal Democrat | 70 | 2.9% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -2.5% | -8.6% | Independent |
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| -8.8% |
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| Green |
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| -3.4% | -3.5% |
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| TUSC |
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| -0.9% |
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| Total votes | 2,383
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| 68% | 38% | 68% | 72% |
Swing Labour to UKIP 1.3% since May, and 3.0% since 2012 but UKIP to Labour ~4½% since 2015 and 10% since 2014 Council now 49 Labour, 21 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 6 variety of Independents, 3 Green, 1 UKIP Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas - Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP who did not defend seat
Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | Liberal Democrat | 486 | 57.8% | +32.9% | +31.8% | Conservative | 210 | 25.0% | -2.1% | -3.6% | Labour | 87 | 10.3% | -7.4% | from nowhere | Independent | 58 | 6.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -30.3% |
| Independent 1 |
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| -31.2% | Green |
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| -9.4% | Independent 2 |
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| -5.0% | Total votes | 841
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| 96% | 79% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 42 Liberal Democrat, 35 Independent, 30 Conservative, 8 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 2 Vacant
Cornwall, St Teath & St Breward - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent
- ward was St Teath in 2009
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Liberal Democrat | 620 | 44.8% | +13.0% | from nowhere | Independent Kitto | 242 | 17.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 202 | 14.6% | -2.1% | -20.3% | Independent Theobald | 181 | 13.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Jones | 73 | 5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 66 | 4.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independent |
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| -51.5% | -65.1% | Total votes | 1,384 |
| 113% | 94% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 42 Liberal Democrat, 35 Independent, 30 Conservative, 8 Labour, 4 Mebyon Kernow, 1 Green, 1 UKIP, 2 Vacant
Gwynedd, Marchog - No Description gain from Independent
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | No Description | 211 | 65.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 112 | 34.7% | +1.6% | +2.6% | -20.3% | -16.9% | Independents |
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| -55.4% | -54.4% | -45.0% | -48.4% | Independent |
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| -11.5% | -13.5% |
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| Total votes | 323 |
| 49% | 57% | 72% | 77% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 38 Plaid Cymru, 19 Independent, 8 Llais Gwynedd, 5 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 No Description, 1 Other, 1 Vacant
Gwynedd, Y Felinheli - Plaid Cymru hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | 2012 result | 2008 result | since 2004 | | Plaid Cymru | 614 | 92.6% | unopposed | unopposed | from nowhere | Conservative | 49 | 7.4% |
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| from nowhere | Labour |
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| -52.0% | Independent |
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| -48.0% | Total votes | 663 |
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| Row 6 column 6 |
Swing not meaningful Council now 38 Plaid Cymru, 19 Independent, 8 Llais Gwynedd, 5 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Other, 1 No Description, 1 Vacant
Islington, Barnsbury - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | Labour | 1,192 | 51.6% | -4.1% | -5.7% | +9.6% | +10.2% | Liberal Democrat | 409 | 17.7% | +7.1% | +8.1% | -7.9% | -7.5% | Conservative | 367 | 15.9% | -2.9% | -2.4% | -5.2% | -6.0% | Green | 302 | 13.1% | +0.7% | +1.2% | +3.3% | +3.2% | Independent | 40 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -2.6% | -2.9% |
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| Independent |
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| -1.5% | -1.6% | Total votes | 2,310 |
| 61% | 67% | 40% | 43% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 5½% / 7% since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Labour ~8¾% since 2010
Council now 47 Labour, 1 Green
Newham, Forest Gate North - Labour hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | Labour | 1,150 | 52.5% | -5.0% | -4.4% | -7.6% | -8.0% | Green | 681 | 31.1% | +17.2% | +16.5% | +16.2% | +15.6% | Conservative | 301 | 13.8% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +0.0% | +0.8% | Liberal Democrat | 57 | 2.6% | -2.5% | -2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -5.5% | -5.8% |
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| Christian People |
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| -4.3% | -4.2% | -6.8% | -6.5% | Independent |
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| -4.4% | -4.6% | Total votes | 2,189 |
| 54% | 57% | 36% | 37% |
Swing Labour to Green ~ 11% since 2014 and ~ 12% since 2010
Council now 60 Labour
North Norfolk, Astley - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | since 2007 | | Liberal Democrat | 319 | 40.8% | from nowhere | +12.4% | -13.1% | Conservative | 198 | 25.3% | -30.7% | -14.3% | -12.3% | UKIP | 133 | 17.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 81 | 10.4% | -15.9% | -4.4% | -1.8% | Labour | 51 | 6.5% | -11.3% | -10.7% | from nowhere | Total votes | 782 |
| 60% | 86% | 89% |
Swing since 2015 not meaningful but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~13% although little swing since 2007 when Liberal Democrat won seat
Council now 32 Conservative, 16 Liberal Democrat
Selby, Byram & Brotherton - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | | Conservative | 251 | 44.3% | +11.8% | Labour | 224 | 39.6% | -4.4% | Yorkshire First | 91 | 16.1% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -23.4% | Total votes | 566 |
| 38% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 8.1% since 2015
Council now 23 Conservative, 7 Labour, 1 independent
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | | Liberal Democrat | 421 | 45.9% | from nowhere | -22.3% | Conservative | 196 | 21.4% | +6.9% | -4.6% | UKIP | 123 | 13.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 77
| 8.4% | from nowhere | +2.5% | Independent | 74 | 8.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 27 | 2.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent * |
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| -85.6% |
| Total votes | 918 |
| 93% | 77% |
* Independent contested seat as Liberal Democrat in 2009 Swing since 2013 not meaningful but Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~9% since 2009 Council now 61 Conservative, 22 Liberal Democrat, 10 Independent, 4 Labour, 1 UKIP
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 15, 2016 14:32:21 GMT
Both Gwynedd results as expected. There will be a fair few Tories in Felin right now but they're all boat owners and aren't registered in the village, lol.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2016 15:02:10 GMT
But what is notable from this set of local by-elections and actually all post-Brexit is that the patterns have not looked remotely like those predicted and insisted on in media HOT TAKES. And right on cue, John Harris has yet another of his HOT TAKES on the "white working class" in the Graun   |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 15, 2016 15:49:21 GMT
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 15, 2016 16:11:09 GMT
Yes, we are still waiting for that UKIP tidal wave obliterating Labour in its "northern heartlands". (and since people like to make parallels, the historic Labour-SNP shift in Scotland was clearly underway within weeks of that referendum) That tidal wave would obliterate the 'northern heartlands' if UKIP had anything like the organisational clout and nous of the LDs. No danger of that happening any time soon* though. * in other words, ever EDIT: Just realised that assessment might be a tad unfair on Pimpernal's posse - but generally speaking UKIP could learn a lot from the LDs when it comes to managing by-elections. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Jul 15, 2016 16:25:31 GMT
But what is notable from this set of local by-elections and actually all post-Brexit is that the patterns have not looked remotely like those predicted and insisted on in media HOT TAKES. And right on cue, John Harris has yet another of his HOT TAKES on the "white working class" in the Graun I have a lot of time for the ever excellent John Harris, one of the very few London hacks who, to use Jeff Stelling's famous words, does bother to 'go north of Rickmansworth not only when they go to the Edinburgh festival fringe'. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 15, 2016 16:47:54 GMT
He used to be OK, but is a bit of a parody now.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 15, 2016 17:31:39 GMT
He's been writing the same piece for well over a decade now and self-loathing middle class liberals fall for it every time.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 15, 2016 18:10:02 GMT
But what is notable from this set of local by-elections and actually all post-Brexit is that the patterns have not looked remotely like those predicted and insisted on in media HOT TAKES. No doubt I'm some sort of fossil, but what on earth is a "hot take" and does it matter if it is capitalised? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 15, 2016 18:14:00 GMT
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jul 15, 2016 18:21:14 GMT
Not interested in any interpretation of the referendum result that doesn't explain why the result in Surrey Heath was almost the exact same as in Knowsley tbh.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 15, 2016 18:22:13 GMT
But what is notable from this set of local by-elections and actually all post-Brexit is that the patterns have not looked remotely like those predicted and insisted on in media HOT TAKES. No doubt I'm some sort of fossil, but what on earth is a "hot take" and does it matter if it is capitalised? 'Fossil' was a hip new word once. |
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