By-elections - June 30th and July 1st

[maxque]

30th June

St. Michael’s - Bexley LBC - Joe Pollard (Conservative) resigned as he is moving abroad for work. He was a councillor since 2006.

2014: Con 1352/1314/1140, UKIP 1280, Lab 857/769/720, BNP 407
2010: Con 2692/2623/2298, Lab 1554/1392/1269, LD 884/724/615, BNP 813, ED 562
2006: Con 2062/1907/1890, Lab 1101/1090/1023, LD 457/450/413
2002: Lab 1023/981/972, Con 887/775/766, LD 831/760/752, UKIP 134

Keith Forster (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Michael Jones (British National Party Local People First)
Sam Marchant (Labour Party)
Derek Moran (Green Party)
Simone Reynolds (Liberal Democrats)
Ray Sams (The Conservative Party Candidate)

2016 London elections:
Mayoral: Con 1402, Lab 701,UKIP 302, LD 119, Grn 80, BF 74, BNP 35, WEP 23, CISTA 12, Respect 12, OLP 5, Zylinski 1
List: Con 1099, Lab 657, UKIP 546, LD 124, Grn 99, BF 91, WEP 49, BNP 46, AWP 32, CPA 31, Respect 18, House 5
Constituency: Con 1198, Lab 723, UKIP 629, LD 126, Grn 100, APP 23

High Town - Luton UA - Aysegul Gurbuz (Labour) resigned after being suspended from the party for having tweeted that Hitler was the greatest man of history and that Iran should develop nuclear weapons to wipe out Israel, back in 2011. She was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Lab 1442/1039, Con 791/748, Grn 479/329
2011: Lab 1008/899, Con 491/437, Grn 191, LD 176/126
2007: Lab 672/617, Con 592/563, Grn 248, LD 195/191
2003: Lab 647/497, Con 462/461, LD 205/149, Grn 175, Ind 114

Lyn Bliss (Green Party)
John French (Independent)
Grace Froggatt (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Sue Garrett (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Clive Mead (Liberal Democrats)
Maahwish Mirza (Labour Party)

Leatherhead North - Mole Valley DC - Santiago Mondejar Flores (Conservative) resigned. He was criticized for poor attendance and was first elected in 2015.
2015 - 2019 term

2016: LD 528, Con 453, UKIP 279, Lab 255, Grn 66
2015: Con 1064, LD 915, UKIP 571, Lab 455, Grn 122
2014: Con 525, LD 519, UKIP 512, Lab 248
2012: LD 535, Con 495, Lab 270, UKIP 213
2011: LD 820, Con 669, Lab 278, UKIP 209
2010: LD 1125, Con 1113, Lab 353, Ind 275, UKIP 187
2008: LD 866, Con 621, UKIP 170
2007: LD 829, Con 577, Lab 190, UKIP 105, Grn 43
2006: Con 757, LD 754, Lab 221
2004: Con 511, LD 492, Lab 489
2003: LD 517, Con 364, Lab 343
2002: LD 721, Lab 438, Con 317

The Independent in 2010 was the councillor elected in 2006, she defected to Liberal Democrats soon after and then left the party (with her husband, elected in 2008) over their refusal to expel a bankrupt member.

Simon Chambers (UKIP)
Joe Crome (Liberal Democrats)
Vicki Elcoate (Green Party)
Marc Green (Labour Party Candidate)
Tracy Keeley (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Rhoose - Vale of Glamorgan - Philip Clarke (Independent) died in a motorbike crash. He was a councillor since 2012 (and the PC candidate in 2008). During his working life, he was a commercial airline pilot.

2012: Ind 882, Con 810/727, Lab 713
2008: Con 1169/1143, PC 556, LD 552, Lab 520
2004: Con 1240/1085, Lab 729

The defeated Conservative in 2012 was the Council Leader.

Rachel Banner (Independent)
James Fyfe (The Pirate Party UK)
Gordon Kemp (Welsh Conservative Party)
Graham Loveluck-Edwards (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Robin Lynn (Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru)
Ian Perry (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales)
Adam Riley (Independent)


July 1st

Newington - Thanet DC - Mo Leys (UKIP) resigned, as he felt he could not represent UKIP anymore. He was a councillor since 2015.

Jan 2016 by: Lab 288, UKIP 229, Con 156, Ind 49/10, Grn 20, LD 12
2015: UKIP 884/845, Lab 728/713, Con 390/363
2011: Lab 705/702, Con 370/351
2007: Lab 471/438, Ramsgate First 268/196, Con 208/197, UKIP 116
2003: Lab 532/498, Ind 235, Con 144/140

Matthew Brown (Liberal Democrats)
Adam Dark (The Conservative Party)
David Green (The Labour Party Candidate)
Roy Potts (UKIP)

[andrea]

22.49% turnout in Luton

[maxque]

Turnout in High Town, Luton is 22.49%

[maxque]

Turnout in St Michael's, Bexley is 30.3%

[middleenglander]

Jun 30, 2016 21:52:25 GMT maxque said:

Turnout in High Town, Luton is 22.49%

Circa 1,200 votes.

[middleenglander]

Jun 30, 2016 21:55:02 GMT maxque said:

Turnout in St Michael's, Bexley is 30.3%

Circa 2,450 votes?

[maxque]

Labour HOLD in High Town, Luton.

[andrea]

Luton


Miraz, Maahwish - Labour Party 505 / 39.6%
Bliss, Lyn - Green Party ​ 273 / 21.4%
Mead, Clive Richard - Liberal Democrats 181 / 14.2%
Garrett, Sue - Conservative Party 141 / 11%
French, John Rodney – Independent 102 / 8%
Froggatt, Grace Elizabeth - UK Independence Party 69 / 5.4%

[maxque]

Con HOLD in St Michael, Bexley.

[maxque]

Jun 30, 2016 22:34:55 GMT andrea said:

Luton

Bliss, Lyn - Green Party ​ 273 21.4%

French, John Rodney – Independent 102 8%

Froggatt, Grace Elizabeth - UK Independence Party 69 5.4%

Garrett, Sue - Conservative Party 141 11%

Mead, Clive Richard - Liberal Democrats 181 14.2%

Miraz, Maahwish - Labour Party 505 39.6%

Lab -13.5
Con -17.1
Grn +3.8

And the percentages of the Councils don't add up.
Should be Lab 39.7, Grn 21.5, LD 14.2, Con 11.1,  Ind 8, UKIP 5.4

[Lord Twaddleford]

Jun 28, 2016 1:36:07 GMT maxque said:

July 1st

Newington - Thanet DC - Mo Leys (UKIP) resigned, as he felt he could not represent UKIP anymore. He was a councillor since 2015.

I find it interesting that they should be holding this by-election on a Friday as opposed to the usual Thursday, why is that?

[carlton43]

Jun 30, 2016 22:40:10 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Jun 28, 2016 1:36:07 GMT maxque said:

July 1st

Newington - Thanet DC - Mo Leys (UKIP) resigned, as he felt he could not represent UKIP anymore. He was a councillor since 2015.

I find it interesting that they should be holding this by-election on a Friday as opposed to the usual Thursday, why is that?

They are holding it on Thursday 31st June.   Thanet time.

[maxque]

St Michael, Bexley

Con 939 (37.4%; +2.7)
Lab 840 (33.5%; +11.5)
UKIP 456 (18.2%; -14.7)
LD 117 (4.7%; +4.7)
BNP 105 (4.2%; -6.2)
Grn 54 (2.2%; +2.2)

[marksenior]

Leatherhead a LD Gain

LD 862
Con 340
UKIP 157
Lab 135
Green 28

[maxque]

Jun 30, 2016 22:55:16 GMT marksenior said:

Leatherhead a LD Gain

LD 862
Con 340
UKIP 157
Lab 135
Green 28

LD 56.6% (+23.4)
Con 22.3% (-6.4)
UKIP 10.3% (-7.3)
Lab 8.9% (-7.2)
Grn 1.8% (-2.4)

[neilm]

Con win in Chester for Simon Eardley

[cefin]

Result Vale of Glamorgan Rhoose ward

I'm afraid that the figures where I've written ish are only approximate as I didn't write them down

Riley Independent 590ish

Kemp Con 521

Loveluck Edwards Lab 401

Banner Independent 399

Perry Plaid 140ish

Lynn Lib Dems 24 ish

Pirate party 4 ish



Independent hold I suppose you call that, doesn't really bode well for the Conservatives who hold the other ward seat in 10 months at full local authority election time when with two votes per voter the independent vote won't be split if they both stand again. Rhoose was a firm Conservative seat up until the last full election in 2012.

[middleenglander]

Bexley, St Michael's - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"	since 2010 "top"	since 2010 "average"
Conservative	939	37.4%	+2.7%	+3.5%	-4.0%	-4.5%
Labour	840	33.5%	+11.5%	+12.5%	+9.6%	+10.3%
UKIP	456	18.2%	-14.7%	-16.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	117	4.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-8.9%	-7.6%
BNP	105	4.2%	-6.3%	-6.7%	-8.3%	-9.2%
Green	54	2.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
English Democrats					-8.6%	-9.3%
Total votes	2,511		64%	67%	39%	41%

Swing if meaningful Conservative to Labour ~4.5% since 2015 and ~7% since 2011

Council now 45 Conservative, 15 Labour, 3 UKIP

Luton, High Town - Labour hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Labour	505	39.7%	-13.4%	-11.7%	-14.3%	-14.5%
Green	273	21.5%	+3.8%	+4.7%	+11.2%	+10.6%
Liberal Democrat	181	14.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	+4.7%	+5.7%
Conservative	141	11.1%	-18.1%	-20.8%	-15.2%	-15.3%
Independent	102	8.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	69	5.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	1,271		47%	53%	68%	72%

Swing if meaningful Labour to Green ~8½% since 2015 and ~12½% since 2011

Council now 35 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 5 Conservative

Mole Valley, Leatherhead North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2016 B votes	2016 B share	since 2016	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011
Liberal Democrat	862	56.6%	+23.2%	+27.4%	+27.9%	+21.3%	+15.1%
Conservative	340	22.3%	-6.3%	-11.2%	-6.8%	-10.4%	-11.5%
UKIP	157	10.3%	-7.3%	-7.9%	-18.1%	-3.8%	-0.3%
Labour	135	8.9%	-7.3%	-5.7%	-4.9%	-9.0%	-5.2%
Green	28	1.8%	-2.3%	-2.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Total votes	1,522		96%	49%	84%	101%	Row 7 column 8

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat between ~13% and ~19%  in the 5 years 2016 to 2011 (excluding 2013)

Council now 22 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 6 Ashtead Independent

Vale of Glamorgan, Rhoose - Independent win / hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"	since 2008 "top"	since 2008 "average"
Independent Riley	598	29.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	520	25.4%	-8.3%	-7.1%	-16.4%	-16.2%
Labour	401	19.6%	-10.1%	-10.6%	+1.0%	+0.9%
Independent Banner	399	19.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Plaid Cymru	104	5.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-14.8%	-14.9%
Liberal Democrat	24	1.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-18.6%	-18.7%
Pirate	4	0.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Councillor *			-36.7%	-37.3%
Total votes	2,050		85%	87%	73%	74%

* contested seat as Plaid Cymru in 2008

Swing not meaningful

Council now 21 Labour, 12 Conservative, 6 Plaid Cymru, 5 Independent, 3 Llantwit First

[froome]

Jun 30, 2016 22:44:36 GMT carlton43 said:

Jun 30, 2016 22:40:10 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

I find it interesting that they should be holding this by-election on a Friday as opposed to the usual Thursday, why is that?

They are holding it on Thursday 31st June.   Thanet time.

Too true.

But seriously, does anyone know why it is being held today? I thought the idea of having elections on weekdays was that most people would be available to vote then, unlike at weekends when many people are away. A Friday seems the worst choice of day of all - when people are at work but then many are going away. And I would have thought that holding a count overnight on Friday would most definitely not be popular!

[andrewteale]

Jun 30, 2016 23:18:41 GMT neilm said:

Con win in Chester for Simon Eardley

Upton Heath parish council.