Prediction Competition for July 2016

[Deleted]

Me also.

Incidentally, I'm sure middleenglander won't mind that I've tweaked the thread title so that it says July 2016 as opposed to July 2015.

[marksenior]

I also echo concerns and good wishes for Pete

[maxque]

Let's hope the "issue" is him having some good time with a women (and forgetting about politics in the mean time) or some other pleasure like that. Or more mundanely, internet issues or addiction to Pokemon Go (through, I have an hard time thinking about Pete plaing that sort of game).

Despite all disagreements, I echo the corcerns and hope you're away for a pleasant reson.

[middleenglander]

Bradford, Wibsey
David Boothroyd 8.3 faults, Maxque 9.0, Greenhert 19.0, hempie 20.3, Mark Senior 22.3, hedgehog 23.2, Robert Waller 26.8

Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas
Mark Senior 33.6 faults, Greenhert 46.3, hedgehog 48.2, hempie 51.5, Robert Waller 53.6, David Boothroyd 58.3+10, Maxque 63.6+10

Cornwall, St Teath & St Breward
Mark Senior 38.7 faults, Greenhert 42.7, hedgehog & hempie 57.9+10, Robert Waller 59.9+10, Maxque 64.9+10, David Boothroyd 73.9+10

Gwynedd, Marchog
Maxque 4.5 faults, Robert Waller 9.3, David Boothroyd 10.7, Greenhert 12.7, Mark Senior 18.7, hempie 19.3, hedgehog 29.3

Gwynedd, Y Felinheli
Maxque 6.2 faults, Mark Senior 9.2, Greenhert 17.2, David Boothroyd 21.2, hempie 23.2, Robert Waller 25.2, hedgehog 27.2

Islington, Barnsbury
hempie & Mark Senior 7.6 faults, Greenhert 17.2, Maxque 17.8, David Boothroyd 18.6, hedgehog 24.6, Robert Waller 25.3

Newham, Forest Gate North
Maxque 24.2 faults, Greenhert 26.2, hedgehog 35.3, Mark Senior 37.7, hempie 42.2, Robert Waller 45.7, David Boothroyd 48.2

North Norfolk, Astley
hempie 26.2+10 faults, David Boothroyd 36.3+10, hedgehog 40.6+10, Maxque & Robert Waller 45.6+10, Greenhert 47.6+10, Mark Senior 59.6+10

Selby, Byram & Brotherton
Robert Waller 12.8+10 faults, Greenhert 16.8+10, David Boothroyd 18.8+10, hempie 20.8+10, Maxque 22.8+10, hedgehog 24.8+10, Mark Senior 28.8+10

Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove
hempie 19.3 faults, hedgehog 19.4, Maxque 21.1, Mark Senior 23.7, David Boothroyd 28.5, Robert Waller 32.6, Greenhert 34.6

and for the week
Mark Senior 299.9, Greenhert 300.3, hempie 318.5, Maxque 319.7, hedgehog, 360.7, David Boothroyd 362.8, Robert Waller 367.0

and the month to date:

375.5 Mark Senior
391.9 Greenhert

414.4 Maxque
431.6 hempie

462.0 hedgehog
468.7 Robert Waller
506.6 David Boothroyd

Objections please by 5.00 pm Sunday

There are 10 by-elections again next week. Predictions on the thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[middleenglander]

There has still been no further postings from Pete Whitehead since last reported. Any news anyone?

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks to everyone for expressions of concern. I've just returned from another unscheduled and unwanted stay in Vicarage ward of Watford due to gallstones - the second such stay in as many months. I'm due to have my gallbladder removed in September but in the meantime have become accustomed to 'attacks' or 'episodes' that typically last a few hours in the early hours but occasionally become a bit more severe and require various scans (MRI, Ultrasound, ECG) and antibiotics. The first serious epidsode was in May which was when the condition was diagnosed but with hindsight its clear that symptoms had been presenting, in more mild form, at least 18 months prior to that. In fact I had been to a GP at least twice about pain in that specific area but was sent down various blind alleys (being sent for tests for bowel cancer for example because a couple of my symptoms ticked some boxes and they had obviously been given some target to fulfil on that condition - they seemed almost hurt by my impassive reaction to the 'news' that I didn't have bowel cancer, as if I should be happy to know what I didn't have and would no longer be concerned to know what I did have). Obviously this wouldn't have happened if instead of going to the GP surgery in Chiswell Green I had gone to the one in Camberwick Green..

The important lesson from this is of course to get ones predictions in well in advance of the deadline. I used to be in the habit of doing them on a Monday, precisely because of the possibility of unforeseen circumstances intervening, but recently have tended to leave it until the Wednesday evening. I toyed with doing some predictions on Wednesday morning before taking myself off to Watford General and had there been only two or three contests I probably would have. But 10 was too much while in a state of discomfort and in any case at that point I held out hope I would be back again the same evening (my plan was just to get hold of some more of the antibiotics which had solved the problem in May).
1,000 faults is a heavy price to pay, but I suppose as consequences off gallstones go, it pales compared with having to forego bacon, sausages, pies, rib-eye steak, chocolate and cheesecake

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 14, 2016 23:25:08 GMT maxque said:

Let's hope the "issue" is him having some good time with a women (and forgetting about politics in the mean time)

Not the best time to be forgetting about politics is it lol

[marksenior]

Good to hear you are ok Pete .
I have a similar problem but my stones ( plural ) are in my bladder . Hsd one removed last year have 2 more now .

[Pete Whitehead]

Would that be kidney stones then? My understanding was that if gall stones escaped from the gallbladder they would travel to the bowel, whereas kidney stones go from the kidneys to the bladder. I have had kidney stones a couple of times and they are excrutiating, but that is during the journey to the bladder rather than once they're there

[marksenior]

My stones are growing in the bladder itself , enlarged prostate causing malfunctioning urination leading to stones growing in the bladder itself . I did have kidney stones many years ago and yes they were painful .

[Pete Whitehead]

oh I see - Bladder stones. Had not heard of them before - sounds nasty

[The Bishop]

Best wishes to you and yours, Pete.

Just out of interest, any idea of what you might have predicted (it was quite an eventful set of results)?

[Pete Whitehead]

I hadn't even got to the point of lookig at what the contests were so can't really say

[marksenior]

E Devon Exmouth LD 45 Con 43 Lab 12
E Devon Honiton Con 40 E DEV Ind 30 UKIP 18 Lab 12
Gwynedd Waunfawr Plaid 66 Lab 34
Hackney Hackney Central Lab 66 Green 18 LD 8 Con 6 Ind 2
Lancs Chorley Rural North Con 48 Lab 34 UKIP 11 LD 7
Lewisham Bellingham Lab 53 Con 22 LPBP 13 LD 7 UKIP 5
Newark Balderton S Con 63 LD 37
Northampton Westone Con 52 Lab 29 LD 19
Reading Southcote Lab 55 Con 27 LD 12 Green 6
Tandridge Warlingham West Con 55 LD 30 UKIP 15

[Robert Waller]

E Devon Exmouth LD 50 Con 40 Lab 10
E Devon Honiton Con 45 E DEV Ind 27 UKIP 18 Lab 10
Gwynedd Waunfawr Plaid 80 Lab 20
Hackney Hackney Central Lab 60 Green 20 LD 10 Con 5 Ind 5
Lancs Chorley Rural North Con 39 Lab 41 UKIP 10 LD 10
Lewisham Bellingham Lab 61 Con 15 LPBP 8 LD 8 UKIP 8
Newark Balderton S Con 66 LD 34
Northampton Westone Con 51 Lab 31 LD 18
Reading Southcote Lab 60 Con 25 LD 10 Green 5
Tandridge Warlingham West Con 54 LD 32 UKIP 14

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EAST DEVON Exmouth Littleham: C 55, L Dem 38, Lab 7
EAST DEVON Honiton St Michael’s: C 58, UKIP 19, Ind EDA 17, Lab 6
GWYNEDD Waunfawr: PC 76, Lab 24
HACKNEY Hackney Central: Lab 64, C 14, GP 12, L Dem 6, Ind 4
LANCASHIRE Chorley Rural North: C 51, Lab 32, L Dem 10, UKIP 7
LEWISHAM Bellingham: Lab 54, LPBP 17, C 14, UKIP 10, L Dem 5
NEWARK AND SHERWOOD Balderton South: C 67, L Dem 33
NORTHAMPTON Westone: C 48, Lab 29, L Dem 23
READING Southcote: Lab 54, C 29, GP 10, L Dem 7
TANDRIDGE Warlingham West: C 56, L Dem 30, UKIP 14

[maxque]

EAST DEVON Exmouth Littleham: Con 45, LD 38, Lab 17
EAST DEVON Honiton St Michael’s: Con 36, IEDA 27, UKIP 25, Lab 12
GWYNEDD Waunfawr: PC 65, Lab 35
HACKNEY Hackney Central: Lab 59, Grn 23, LD 7, Con 6, Ind 5
LANCASHIRE Chorley Rural North: Con 44.1, Lab 35.8, UKIP 14.3, LDem 5.8
LEWISHAM Bellingham: Lab 57, Con 16, LPBP 15, LD 8, UKIP 4
NEWARK AND SHERWOOD Balderton South: Con 60, LD 40
NORTHAMPTON Westone: Con 48.9, Lab 30.7, LD 20.4
READING Southcote: Lab 66.9, Con 24.8, Grn 5.1, LD 3.2
TANDRIDGE Warlingham West: Con 59, LD 28, UKIP 13

[hempie]

East Devon, Exmouth: LD 50, Con 37 Lab 13
East Devon, Honiton: Con 44. E DEV Ind 27, UKIP 19, Lab 10
Gwynedd, Waunfawr: PC 82, Lab 18
Hackney, Hackney Central: Lab 61, Green 19, LD 12, Con 5,Ind 3
Lancashire, Chorley Rural North: Con 41, Lab 34, UKIP 14, LD 11
Lewisham, Bellingham: Lab 55, Con 14, LPBP 13, LD 12, UKIP 6
Newark, Balderton South: Con 60, LD 40
Northampton, Westone: Con 48, Lab 31, LD 21
Reading, Southcote: Lab 53, Con 26, LD 12,Green 9
Tandridge, Warlingham West: Con 52, LD 35, UKIP 13

[greenhert]

East Devon DC, Exmouth Littleham: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 43, Labour 9. (Lib Dem gain from Conservative.)
East Devon DC, Honiton St Michael's: Con 40, E Devon Ind 32, UKIP 18, Lab 10.
Gwynedd, Waunfawr: Plaid Cymru 72, Lab 28.
Hackney LBC, Hackney Central: Lab 59, Green 20, Lib Dem 13, Con 6, Independent 2.
Lancashire CC, Chorley Rural North: Con 42, Lab 35, UKIP 13, Lib Dem 10.
Lewisham LBC, Bellingham: Lab 56, LPBP 17, Con 13, Lib Dem 10, UKIP 4.
Newark DC, Balderton South: Con 62, Lib Dem 38.
Northampton BC, Westone: Con 49, Lab 29, Lib Dem 22.
Reading UA, Southcote: Lab 57, Con 27, Lib Dem 9, Green 7.
Tandridge DC, Warlingham West: Con 55, Lib Dem 34, UKIP 11.

[middleenglander]

Just 6 entries this week with hedgehog in hibernation and Pete Whitehead on Moby Dick leave.

East Devon, Exmouth Littleham: 4 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative with David Boothroyd & Maxque Conservative hold
East Devon, Honiton St Michael's: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 8% over East Devon Alliance(Greenhert) to 39% over UKIP (David Boothroyd)
Gwynedd: 100% Plaid Cymru hold with share ranging from 65% (Maxque) to 82% (hempie)
Hackney: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 33% over Green (Greenhert) to 50% over Conservative (David Boothroyd)
Lancashire: 5 Conservative hold with Robert Waller Labour gain
Lewisham: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 31% over Conservative (Mark Senior) to 46% over Conservative (Robert Waller)
Newark & Sherwood: 100% Conservative hold with share ranging from 60% (hempie & Maxque) to 67% (David Boothroyd)
Northampton: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Labour ranging from 17% (hempie) to 23% (Mark Senior)
Reading: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 25% (David Boothroyd) to 42.1% (Maxque)
Tandridge: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Liberal Democrat ranging from 17% (hempie) to 31% (Maxque)