hempie
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Post by hempie on Jul 7, 2016 7:13:21 GMT
Conwy, Mostyn: Lab 28, Ind Thomas 22, Con 16, UKIP 15, Ind Enston 10, Lib Dem 9 Eden, Appleby (Appleby): Ind 67, Con 33 Suffolk, Carlford: Con 48, Lib Dem 22, Lab 18,Green 12
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Jul 7, 2016 7:34:17 GMT
Conwy Ind Thomas 30, Lab 26, Con 20, Lib Dem 11, UKIP 9, Ind Enston 4
Eden Ind 67, Con 33
Suffolk Con 45, Green 21, Lib Dem 19, Lab 15
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 7, 2016 8:10:04 GMT
Suffolk CC - Carlford Con 52.9% LD 18.8% Grn 14.6% Lab 13.7% Eden DC - Appleby (Appleby) Ind 59.7% Con 40.3% Conwy CC - Mostyn Lab 35.7% Con 26.5% LD 14.2% UKIP 10.4% Ind T 8.9% Ind E 4.3%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2016 12:42:06 GMT
Eden Appleby (Appleby) 100% INdependent hold with majority ranging from 19.4% (Pete Whitehead) to 48% (Mark Senior) Suffolk CC Carlford 100% Conservative hold makority ranging from 9% over LD (DAvid Boothroyd) to 41% over Labour (Greenhert) Conwy CC - Mostyn 6 Labour hold with David Boothroyd and Hedgehog predicting a gain by Independent Thomas. Greenhert gets 10 faults for only adding up to 90. Maxque has two sets of figures for Independent Thomas and none for Enston. Together these two votes exceed the Labour vote but I'm treating this as a predicted Labour hold.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2016 12:48:26 GMT
Conwy - Pete Whitehead 9.8, Robert Waller 30.3, Mark Senior 32.3, Maxque 41.0, Hempie 44.3, Hedgehog 47.9, David Boothroyd 64.3, Greenhert 66.9 Eden - Mark Senior 0.8, Greenhert 7.2, David Boothroyd & Maxque 11.2, Hedgehog & Hempie 13.2, Robert Waller 17.2, Pete Whitehead 27.8 Suffolk - Greenhert 3.0, Maxque 11.0, Mark Senior 19.2, Pete Whitehead 24.0 Hempie 25.2, Hedgehog 37.2, Robert Waller 41.2, David Boothroyd 45.9 For the week Mark Senior 52.3 Pete Whitehead 61.7 Maxque 63.2 Greenhert 77.1 Hempie 82.8 Robert Waller 88.8 Hedgehog 98.4 David Boothroyd 121.4 All subject of course to confirmation by middleenglander
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Post by greenhert on Jul 8, 2016 13:34:02 GMT
Pete Whitehead, my prediction figures for the Conwy by-election clearly added up to 100; you must have misread it. 30+27=57; 57+24=81; 81+10=91; 91+5=96; 96+4=100. Quod erot demonstratum!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 8, 2016 13:41:03 GMT
You edited it 3 minutes ago - previously you had no figures for the UKIP candidate. I assume this is a matter of record. IN any case the figures I'm giving are only indicative and it is up to Middle Englander how faults are handed out - I'd note he has been known to hand out additional faults to those who try to game the system
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 8, 2016 16:15:11 GMT
Now, I really don't want to be a snitch ... but if there is a question of 'economy with the truth' here is what I think happened. Greenhert was first to post this week and originally had a non-existent PC candidate instead of UKIP to whom he gave 10%. Those coming immediately afterwards couldn't use this as a template so switched for UKIP. I had a look after 9 am on the day and the PC in the first post was still there. It occurred to me that ME might fine 10 for this, but the total did add up to 100, so I suspect the penalty would be the same as Pete has imposed.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 10, 2016 15:05:30 GMT
Firstly an apology for not posting earlier. I have been trying to find, so far without success, whether there is a way of obtaining a history of the post in question.
My normal procedure is to key in the predictions as and when they are posted on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. I then check later in the day to ensure that I have entered the predictions correctly and have identified any late changes. Those made before 9.00 am are normally accepted (unless there is evidence of manipulation) whilst those after are usually rejected unless there is a good reason, for example correcting for a prediction of 100.9 instead 10.9 although this would still incur penalties for a late entry.
This week I have been away and so the normal procedures did not apply. I was largely dependent on the postings as they were on Friday evening. I do note in particular the comments made by Pete Whitehead and Robert Waller and also that Greenhert's post was edited at 2.34 pm on Friday afternoon, although the precise change is not known. I also recall whilst browsing through the thread in our hotel on Thursday that someone had included a prediction for Plaid Cymru in Conwy although I am not sure for certain who.
Without evidence to the contrary, I consider that on balance Greenhert did initially include a prediction of 10% for Plaid Cymru in Conwy rather than for UKIP.
There are a range of penalties available including disqualification or enforcing 100 faults for this one prediction as any amendment was made well after time out. However on this occasion I will assume an incorrect posting with 10 additional penalties for adding to 90% with in addition UKIP having a prediction of 0%. This does mean Greenhert incurs 19.6 more faults than if he had initially posted correctly.
The week's position is confirmed as per Pete Whitehead's interim posting.
And the month to date is:
74.9 Pete Whitehead 75.6 Mark Senior
91.6 Greenhert 94.5 Maxque
101.4 hedgehog 101.7 Robert Waller
113.4 hempie 143.8 David Boothroyd
Objections please by 10.00 am Tuesday.
There are 10 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 10, 2016 15:12:14 GMT
Your Thread Title is one year out.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 13, 2016 21:14:19 GMT
Bradford Wibsey Lab 50 Con 22 UKIP 17 LD 11 Cornwall Newquay LD 41 Con 30 Lab 15 Ind 14 Cornwall St Teath LD 33 Con 28 Ind K 15 Ind J 10 Ind T 8 Lab 6 Gwynedd Marchog No Desc 56 Lab 44 Gwynedd Y Felineli Plaid 88 Con 12 Islington Barnsbury Lab 52 Con 19 LD 15 Green 12 Ind 2 Newham Forest Gate North Lab 68 Green 15 Con 11 LD 6 N Norfolk Astley Con 43 LD 28 Green 16 Lab 13 Selby Byram Lab 54 Con 37 York 1st 9 Wiltshire Trowbridge LD 48 Con 27 UKIP 8 Green 7 Lab 5 Ind 5
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 13, 2016 22:12:07 GMT
Bradford Wibsey Lab 57 Con 13 UKIP 20 LD 10 Cornwall Newquay LD 31 Con 25 Lab 15 Ind 29 Cornwall St Teath LD 30 Con 12 Ind Kitto 5 Ind Jones 31 Ind Theobald 13 Lab 9 Gwynedd Marchog No Desc 70 Lab 30 Gwynedd Y Felineli Plaid 80 Con 20 Islington Barnsbury Lab 64 Con 13 LD 10 Green 11 Ind 2 Newham Forest Gate North Lab 73 Green 16 Con 6 LD 5 N Norfolk Astley Con 38 LD 27 Green 15 Lab 12 UKIP 8 Selby Byram Lab 46 Con 44 York 1st 10 Wiltshire Trowbridge LD 36 Con 34 UKIP 8 Green 5 Lab 10 Ind 7
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Post by greenhert on Jul 13, 2016 22:26:47 GMT
Bradford MBC, Wibsey: Labour 52, Conservative 19, UKIP 18, Liberal Democrats 11. Cornwall UA, Newquay Treviglass: Lib Dem 38, Con 35, Independent E 20, Lab 7. Cornwall UA, St Teath & St Breward: Lib Dem 32, Con 27, Independent K 15, Independent J 14, Independent T 7, Lab 5. Gwynedd UA, Marchog: Dylan Fernley (No Description) 59, Lab 41. Gwynedd UA, Y Felineli: Plaid Cymru 84, Con 16. Islington LBC, Barnsbury: Lab 56, Green 17, Con 14, Lib Dem 11, Independent C 2. Newham LBC, Forest Gate North: Lab 62, Green 18, Con 15, Lib Dem 5. North Norfolk DC, Astley: Con 42, Lib Dem 25, Green 16, UKIP 9, Lab 8. Selby DC, Byram & Brotherton: Lab 48, Con 43, Yorkshire First 9. Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Grove: Lib Dem 37, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 8, UKIP 8, Independent W 5.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 13, 2016 23:33:11 GMT
BRADFORD Wibsey: Lab 48, UKIP 26, C 20, L Dem 6 CORNWALL Newquay Treviglas: Ind 36, L Dem 29, C 25, Lab 10 CORNWALL St Teath and St Breward: Ind Jones 40, L Dem 24, Ind Theobald 13, C 12, Lab 7, Ind Kitto 4 GWYNEDD Marchog: ND 60, Lab 40 GWYNEDD Y Felinheli: PC 82, C 18 ISLINGTON Barnsbury: Lab 50, C 22, GP 15, L Dem 10, Ind 3 NEWHAM Forest Gate North: Lab 67, C 22, GP 7, L Dem 4 NORTH NORFOLK Astley: C 41, L Dem 27, UKIP 15, Lab 9, GP 8 SELBY Byram and Brotherton: Lab 49, C 40, YF 11 WILTSHIRE Trowbridge Grove: L Dem 37, C 29, Ind 10, Lab 9, UKIP 8, GP 7
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 14, 2016 6:34:44 GMT
Bradford MBC, Wibsey: Lab 51, UKIP 23, Con 22, LD 4 Cornwall UA, Newquay Treviglass: Ind 30.7, Con 30.5, LD 26, Lab 12.8 Cornwall UA, St Teath & St Breward: Ind Jones 35, LD 28.8, Con 14.7, Ind Theobald 10.1, Lab 7.4, Ind Kitto 4 Gwynedd UA, Marchog: ND 67.6, Lab 32.4 Gwynedd UA, Y Felineli: PC 89.5, Con 10.5 Islington LBC, Barnsbury: Lab 57.2, Con 19.2, Grn 12.3, LD 10.2, Ind 1.1 Newham LBC, Forest Gate North: Lab 61, Grn 19, Con 16, LD 4. North Norfolk DC, Astley: Con 36, LD 22, Grn 16, UKIP 13, Lab 13. Selby DC, Byram & Brotherton: Lab 51, Con 43, YF 6. Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Grove: LD 36.9, Con 23, UKIP 19.5, Ind 10, Lab 6.8, Grn 3.8
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hempie
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Post by hempie on Jul 14, 2016 7:27:36 GMT
Bradford, Wibsey: Lab 44, UKIP 24, Con 22, Lib Dem 10 Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas: Lib Dem 37, Ind 31, Con 20, Lab 12 Cornwall, St Teath and St Breward: Ind Jones 30, Lib Dem 27, Ind Kitto 12, Ind Theobald 10, Con 12, Lab 9 Gwynedd, Marchog: ND 75, Lab 25 Gwynedd, Y Felinheli: PC 81, C 19 Islington,Barnsbury: Lab 52, C 19, Lib Dem 14, Green 13, Ind 2 Newham, Forest Gate North: Lab 66, Con 19, Green 10, Lib Dem 5 North Norfolk, Astley: Con 37, Lib Dem 32, UKIP 13, Green 10, Lab 8 Selby, Byram and Brotherton: Lab 50, Con 40, YF 10 Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove: Lib Dem 37, Con 25, UKIP 13, Ind 10, Lab 8, Green 7
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Jul 14, 2016 7:47:59 GMT
Bradford, Wibsey: Lab 40, UKIP 28, Con 18, Lib Dem 14 Cornwall, Newquay Treviglas: Lib Dem 40, Ind 31, Con 20, Lab 9 Cornwall, St Teath and St Breward: Ind Jones 30, Lib Dem 29, Ind Kitto 11, Ind Theobald 11, Con 10, Lab 9 Gwynedd, Marchog: ND 80, Lab 20 Gwynedd, Y Felinheli: PC 79, C 21 Islington,Barnsbury: Lab 42, Green 23, C 18, Lib Dem 15, Ind 2 Newham, Forest Gate North: Lab 50, Con 19, Green 16, Lib Dem 15 North Norfolk, Astley: Con 37, Lib Dem 32, Green 19, UKIP 6, Lab 6 Selby, Byram and Brotherton: Lab 52, Con 42, YF 6 Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove: Lib Dem 38, Con 26, UKIP 12, Ind 8, Lab 8, Green 8
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 14, 2016 10:25:37 GMT
This thread <cough, cough>
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 14, 2016 20:51:53 GMT
Just 7 entries this week with nothing from Pete Whitehead. This may be the first time he has not made a prediction with his last posting on this website 36 hours ago. His average daily posting has been over 6 a day for more than 4 years, so hope all is well.
Bradford, Wibsey: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 12% over UKIP (hedgehog) to 37% over UKIP (Robert Waller) Cornwall, Newquay Treviglass: 5 Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP with David Boothroyd & Maxque Independent gain Cornwall, St Teath & St Breward: 5 Independent Jones win with Greenhert & Mark Senior Liberal Democrat gain Gwynedd, Marchog: 100% No Description win with share ranging from 56% (Mark Senior) to 80% (hedgehog) Gwynedd, Y Felineli: 100% Plaid Cymru hold with share ranging from 79% (hedgehog) to 89.5% (Maxque) Islington, Barnsbury: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 19% over Green (hedgehog) to 51% over Conservative (Robert Waller) Newham, Forest Gate North: 100% Labour hold with majority randing from 31% over Conservative (hedgehog) ton 57% over Green (Robert Waller) North Norfolk, Astley: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Liberal Democrat ranging from 5% (hedgehog) to 17% (Greenhert) Selby, Byram: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 17% (Mark Senior) Wiltshire, Trowbridge Grove: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Independent with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 21% (Mark Senior)
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 14, 2016 21:16:42 GMT
I second the concern for Pete.
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