Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

Sussex-Kent 2011

			Change	seats	change
Con	681657	46.9%	-0.4	119	+3
Lab	275430	19.0%	+6.0	13	+4
LD	256247	17.6%	-6.4	10	-9
Ind	106214	7.3%	-1.2	5	+1
Grn	61221	4.2%	+0.8	3	+1
UKIP	59630	4.1%	+1.7
Oth	12284	0.8%	-0.6

Lab Gain from Con

Crawley South
Hastings St Leonards
Margate
Portslade
Sittingbourne

Lab Gain from LD

Gillingham North

Con Gain from LD

Burgess Hill
Caterham & Warlingham
Dorking
East Grinstead
Guildford East
Littlehampton
Seaford

Con Gain from Lab

Dartford North

Con Gain from Ind

Sheppey

Ind Gain from Con

Banstead

Ind Gain from LD

Epsom

Grn Gain from Lab

Brighton Preston

A fairly sluggish Labour recovery here compared with most other regions and combined with a typical LD collapse allowing the Conservatives to actually increase their majority (as in Thames Chiltern).
Admittedly potential Labour gains here are severely limited but even so there was still much unrealised potential. There are no very plausible looking targets in Surrey these days and Labour did little to bring themslevs into long term ocntention in the handful of seats where they might be competitive (Redhill, Woking East, Staines). Sussex comsists also of mostly unwinnable seats with a few safe seats in Brighton, Hastings and Crawley and few genuine marginals. Here they did achieve the relatively easy task of gaining Portslade, St Leonards and Crawley South but managed to lose another seat to the Greens in Brighton proper leaving them with only one seat there now.
The major battleground as far as Labour is concerned is of course in Kent, specifically coastal Kent from Folkestone round to Dartford. Here their performance was underwhelming. They managed to take only two seats from the Conservatives, missing in Deal and Gravesend East by a whisker while not coming even close to taking any of the Tory held seats in the Medway towns. Margate was an easy target which duly delivered and the one truly impressive result was in gaining Sittingbourne. The gain in Gillingham North was a result mostly of the collapse of the LD vote rather than a particularly strong Labour performance and they actually contrived to lose the erstwhile stronghold of Dartford North to the Conservatives (the only Conservative gain from Labour so far identified.)
The Lib Dem story is a familiar enough one, losing around half their seats here and most of these 9as one would expect given the types of area) to the Conservatives. Their rout was especially severe in Surrey where they lost 5 of the 6 seats previously held and overall are pinned down to their core in the cathedral cities and county towns with a couple of remaining seaside resort type seats.
The Greens did well of course in Brighton & Hove but not really anywhere else - very nearly half their total vote in the region came from that city. Naturally this concentration delivered seats while UKIP with almost as many votes overall were not especially close to winning anywhere, though had some good performances in some other parts of the Sussex coast and parts of Kent and also Spelthorne

[Pete Whitehead]

Apologies the writing on here seems to have come out a bit smaller than planned

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	596369	47.3%	+3.2	116	+12
LD	302971	24.0%	-3.5	19	-6
Lab	164212	13.0%	-4.5	9	-6
Ind	106629	8.5%	+2.3	4	-1
Grn	42324	3.4%	+0.8	2	+1
UKIP	30777	2.4%	+0.9
Oth	17039	1.4%	+0.9

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	489758	44.1%	+1.2	104	+17
LD	305491	27.5%	+0.8	25	-4
Lab	194469	17.5%	-5.9	15	-13
Ind	68862	6.2%	+0.6	5	-1
Grn	28919	2.6%	+1.3	1	+1
UKIP	16166	1.5%	+1.5
Oth	5891	0.5%	+0.4

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Con	449189	42.9%	+10.9	87	+38
LD	279748	26.7%	-4.1	29	-19
Lab	245243	23.4%	-5.7	28	-17
Ind	58660	5.6%	-0.8	6	-2
Grn	13652	1.3%	+0.3
Oth	1208	0.1%	-0.5

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Con	399700	32.0%	-9.8	49	-41
LD	384989	30.8%	+1.0	48	+12
Lab	363753	29.1%	+9.0	45	+26
Ind	81203	6.5%	+0.9	8	+3
Grn	12202	1.0%	-1.4
Oth	7383	0.6%	+0.3

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Con	572047	41.8%	90
LD	408867	29.8%	36
Lab	276027	20.1%	19
Ind	76636	5.6%	5
Grn	32257	2.4%
Oth	4317	0.3%

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth	seats	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
1991	41.8%	20.1%	29.8%	5.6%	2.1%	0.3%		90	19	36	5
1995	32.0%	29.1%	30.8%	6.5%	1.0%	0.6%		49	45	48	8
1999	42.9%	23.4%	26.7%	5.6%	1.3%	0.1%		87	28	29	6
2003	44.1%	17.5%	27.5%	6.2%	2.6%	2.0%		104	15	25	5	1
2007	47.3%	13.0%	24.0%	8.5%	3.4%	3.8%		116	9	19	4	2
2011	46.9%	19.0%	17.6%	7.3%	4.2%	4.9%		119	13	10	5	3

[The Bishop]

I note with interest that even in 1995, Labour were third in both votes and seats in this region!

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Kent
Ashford East	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Ashford West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Aylesford	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Birchington	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Borough Green	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Broadstairs	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Canterbury	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Chatham North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Chatham South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Dartford North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con
Dartford South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Deal	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Dover	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Edenbridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Faversham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Folkestone East	LD	Lab	LD	LD	Con	Con
Folkestone West & Hythe	LD	Con	Con	LD	Con	Con
Gillingham North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Gillingham South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Gravesend East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Gravesend West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Herne Bay	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hoo	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leeds	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Maidstone East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Maidstone North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Maidstone South	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Malling	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Margate	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Meopham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
North Downs	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Paddock Wood	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rainham	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ramsgate	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rochester	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Romney	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sandwich	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sevenoaks	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sheppey	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Sittingbourne	LD	LD	LD	Lab	Con	Lab
Southborough	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
St Augustines	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
St Margarets at Cliffe	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Staplehurst	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Strood	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Swale	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Swanley	Ind	Ind	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Swanscombe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Tenterden	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tonbridge	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tunbridge Wells	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Weald	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
West Kingsdown	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whitstable	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
East Sussex
Battle	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Bexhill East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bexhill West	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Brighton Hannover	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Grn
Brighton Moulsecoomb	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Brighton Patcham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Brighton Preston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn
Brighton Regency	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Grn	Grn
Brighton Rottingdean	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Crowborough	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Eastbourne East	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Eastbourne North	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	LD
Eastbourne South	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Forest Row & Chailey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hailsham	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hastings East	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hastings North	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Hastings St Leonards	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Heathfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hove East	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hove West	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lewes	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Newhaven	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Polegate	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Portslade	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Rye	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Seaford	Con	Con	Con	LD	LD	Con
Uckfield	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
West Sussex
Arundel	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Billingshurst	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bognor Regis East	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bognor Regis West	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Burgess Hill	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Chichester	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Crawley East	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Crawley North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Crawley South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Cuckfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
East Grinstead	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Haywards Heath	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Horsham North	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Horsham South	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Lancing	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Littlehampton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Con
Midhurst	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Nuthurst	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Pulborough	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rustington	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Selsey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Shoreham	Con	LD	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Southborne	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Steyning	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Worthing East	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Worthing North	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Worthing South	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Worthing West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Surrey
Ash	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ashford (Middlx)	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bagshot	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Banstead	Con	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Ind
Bookham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Byfleet	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Camberley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Caterham & Warlingham	Con	LD	Con	LD	LD	Con
Chertsey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Clandon	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cranleigh	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cuddington	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Dorking	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Egham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Epsom	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	LD	Ind
Esher	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ewell	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Farnham	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Frimley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Godalming	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Godstone	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Guildford East	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Guildford West	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
Hambledon	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Haslemere	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hersham & Cobham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Horley	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leatherhead	Con	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Molesey	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Oxted	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Redhill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Reigate	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Staines	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Sunbury	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tadworth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Walton	Con	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Weybridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Woking East	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Woking North	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Woking West	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 8, 2012 11:07:12 GMT The Bishop said:

I note with interest that even in 1995, Labour were third in both votes and seats in this region!

The seats that year also were remarkably proportional to votes cast. The breakdown in each county was interesting. Kent had a comfortable Labour lead of nearly 10%. East Sussex was almost a three way tie but with the LDs just ahead while both West Sussex and Surrey were close two-horse races between the Conservatives and LDs with the Conservatives leading by a whisker in Surrey and the LDs in West Sussex. Taken together Surrey and Sussex had the LDs in the lead so the Conservative lead in the region overall was thanks to Kent (although this was their weakest county, it was weaker still for the LDs)

[LewesSound]

This thread is all rather fascinating and must have taken a whole lot of hard work. I have one question for you, mostly out of a very pointless interest, but how close in 2011 were the Greens from winning any seats in the South East, in your fantasy election, outside of Brighton. I imagine Redhill would have been there closest they'd have been from breaking out of the Brighton stronghold?

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks. Outside of Brighton & Hove (they were 4% behind the Conservatives in Hove West and 6% in Patcham) their best anc closest result was actually in Lewes - though they only had about 19% there this was enough to give them second place and was only just over 10% behind the LDs. After that you are right that Redhill was there best seat but they were nowhere near winning it and were still third behind Labour (it didn't help that they only contested two of the four component wards). As it happens on checking the spreadsheet I noticed I had entered the Green vote for Redhill East incorrectly so I'm grateful to you for inadvertently drawing my attention to that.
After that the Greens had just over 10% in the three Eastbourne seats and nowhere else did they have above 10%

[thetop]

Was the Greens near enough steady advancement in votes since 1991 almost solely down to Brighton or are they doing better across the board in that region?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 8, 2012 15:49:41 GMT thetop said:

Was the Greens near enough steady advancement in votes since 1991 almost solely down to Brighton or are they doing better across the board in that region?

I would imagine its a bit of both, combined with fielding more candidates in some areas. There have certainly been advances in areas like Redhill mentioned above (I think they would just have beaten Labour for second place there on this year's results). I was slightly surprised they'd done so well in Lewes this year as well.

[Pete Whitehead]

In fact they had done better in Lewes in 2007 winning 24% and being within about 8% if winning the seat.
To answer The tops question the brief answer is that the advance is almost entirely down to Brighton and there overall progress in the rest of the region has been fairly modest (notwitrhstanding 'areas like Redhill' for which actually read just Redhill).
A more detailed analysis is more revealing. Of course there has not been a steady advance as such since 1991 because the Gren vote declined quite heavily in 1995, mainly due to having fewer candidates. I have seen the same pattern in other regions and its clear that 1991 forms part of the first Green 'surge' following on from their success ijn the 1989 European elections and which subsequently fell away before making more sustainable (appropriately enough) advances in more carefully targeted areas after Labour came to power and the party became a repository for disaffected left wingers.
For example, in 1991 the Greens won over 15,000 votes in Kent representing 3% of the total in that county and almost half of all their votes in this region. This was mainly due to having a large number of candidates in the East Kent boroughs of Canterbury, Dover and Thanet and actually doing quite well in a number of wards. In my Deal seat they won about 15% that year but have subsequently not even put up candidates.
Indeed if you take the changes from 1991 to 2011 in each of the counties (but excluding Brighton & Hove from East Sussex) it is clear enough where the advances have come
Kent 3.0% in 1991 falling to 2.6% in 2011
Surrey 0.7% in 1991 and 0.7% in 2011
W Sussex 1.3% in 1991 rising to 2.0% in 2011
E Sussex 3.7% in 1991 rising to 5.7% in 2011
Brighton & Hove 5.2% in 1991 rising to 30.1% in 2011

Another way of looking it is as a proportion of the total Green vote in the region. That which came from Brighton & Hove was:

1991 13.4%
1995 31.0%
1999 69.4%
2003 54.7%
2007 40.3%
2011 47.5%

[thetop]

Thanks for that analysis, Pete. If I haven't posted so already, I'm much enjoying this thread (and slightly envious of your resources - although hullenedge is assuaging that a great deal!).

[The Bishop]

What are you doing next, Pete??

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm rather constrained by the problem I described in the North East - it also affects the West Midlands (Shropshire), Devon & Cornwall and the two Wessex regions (WIltshire and the Isle of Wight). That leaves me only the East Midlands and London out of England. Not sure I can do Scotland well on the current ward sizes but I may have a crack at Wales. London is in some ways the least interesting for me to do because its all so familiar while the East Midlands is just not that interesting. I might have a rest for a while

[tricky]

Oct 9, 2012 18:15:24 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I might have a rest for a while

You should be working all year round - not just at election time.