Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
South Yorkshire
Adwick	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Armthorpe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Askern	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Barnsley North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind
Barnsley South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bentley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Conisbrough	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cudworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Darton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dearne	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Doncaster Bessacar	Con	Lab	Con	Con	LD	Con
Doncaster North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Doncaster West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ecclesfield	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Hatfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Cty	Cty	Lab
Kiveton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Maltby	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Mexborough	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Penistone	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Rawmarsh	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rossington & Tickhill	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Rotherham East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rotherham West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Attercliffe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Beauchief	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Sheffield Birley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Brightside	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Broomhill	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Sheffield Ecclesall	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Sheffield Gleadless	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Hallam	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Sheffield Hillsborough	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Mosborough	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Neepsend	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Sheffield Park	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stocksbridge	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Wath	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wickersley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Wombwell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
East Yorkshire
Beverley	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Bridlington	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Cottingham	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Driffield	Ind	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Goole	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Haltemprice	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Hornsea	Ind	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Howden	Con	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con
Hull Beverley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Hull Boothferry	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Hull Bransholme	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Hull Holderness	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Hull Newland	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Hull Southcoates	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hull St Andrews	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hull Sutton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Pocklington	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Skidby	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Withernsea	Ind	Lab	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
North Yorkshire
Derwent	Ind	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Harrogate East	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Harrogate West	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Haxby	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Knaresborough	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Malton	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
New Earswick	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Nidderdale	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Northallerton	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Norton & Filey	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Osgoldcross	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Pickering	Ind	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con
Richmond	Ind	LD	LD	Con	LD	Ind
Ripon	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Scarborough North	LD	Lab	Con	Ind	Ind	Ind
Scarborough South	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Selby	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Settle	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Skipton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stokesley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Swaledale	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Ind	Con
Tadcaster	Con	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con
Thirsk	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whitby	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
York Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
York East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
York West	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
West Yorkshire
Baildon	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Batley	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Bingley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bradford Clayton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Bradford Heaton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bradford Horton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bradford Manningham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bradford Moor	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Bradford Tong	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bradford Undercliffe	Con	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Bradford Wibsey	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Brighouse	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Castleford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Colne Valley	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Denby Dale	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Dewsbury East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dewsbury West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Elland	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Con
Elmsall	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Halifax North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Halifax South	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab
Haworth	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Hemsworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Holmfirth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Huddersfield East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Huddersfield South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Lab	Lab
Huddersfield West	Con	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Ilkley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Keighley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Kirkburton	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con
Knottingley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leeds Armley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leeds Harehills	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leeds Headingley	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Leeds Hunslet	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leeds Moortown	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Leeds Seacroft	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Mirfield	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Morley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	MBI	Lab
Normanton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ossett	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Otley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Pontefract	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Pudsey	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Rothwell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Shipley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Grn	Lab
Sowerby	Con	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Con
Spenborough	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Stanley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Thornton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Todmorden	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Wakefield East	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Wakefield West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Wetherby	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

Essex-East Anglia 2011

			Change	seats	change
Con	565990	43.9%	-2.4	112	-9
Lab	291255	22.6%	+7.3	25	+13
LD	208775	16.2%	-6.3	8	-5
Ind	90732	7.0%	+0.3	4	+1
Grn	66316	5.1%	+1.1	1
UKIP	46296	3.6%	+2.2
Oth	21136	1.6%	-2.1

Lab Gain from Con

Basildon East
Basildon West
Cambridge South
Great Yarmouth North
Harlow West
Ipswich South West
Kings Lynn
Lowestoft West
Ockendon
Peterborough North

Lab Gain from LD

Cambridge North
Colchester South
Norwich South

Con Gain from LD

Chelmsford West
Fakenham
Samford
Southend Westborough
Taverham

Con Gain from Ind

Frinton & Walton

Ind Gain from Con

Southend Shoebury
Southend Southchurch

LD Gain from Con

Brentwood
Coltishall
Ely

The LDs appear to have held onto their (admittedly lower) base better her than in the other regions so far examined. They did duly lose more than half the seats they were defending but unusually were able to partly offset this with a few gains from the Conservatives (in all of the other three regions previously posted the LDs gained a single seat (Appleby) whereas here they gained three). This does though rather reflect the extent to which they were already close to their core here.
Labour, also reduced to their core by 2007 made a semi-decent recovery. They did well in the larger towns especially Cambridge and Ipswich and made a decent recovery in seats in South Essex and in the ports (though Harwich which required only a small swing to gain actually swung slightly to the Conservatives). They continued to underperform in Peterborough (Their one gain there being somewhat of a fluke*) and notably in the smaller overspill towns which they used to be able to count on - Braintree/Bocking., Witham, Sudbury, Haverhill, Thetford.
The Conservatives despite dropping 9 seats net remain in control of three-quarters of the total - a higher share than in neighbouring Thames-Chiltern though with a lower share of the popular vote

* They won this seat with 23.9% of the vote, by far their lowest of the five urban Peterborough seats and the four wards which make up the division were won by four different parties, none of which was Labour

[Pete Whitehead]

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	496711	46.3%	+4.1	121	+16
LD	241477	22.5%	-2.6	13	-11
Lab	163854	15.3%	-4.3	12	-6
Ind	72161	6.7%	-1.4	3	+1
Grn	42565	4.0%	+0.8	1	+1
BNP	20137	1.9%	+1.5
UKIP	15210	1.4%	+1.1
Oth	19960	1.9%	+0.8		-1

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	408035	42.2%	+3.3	105	+27
LD	242565	25.1%	+2.5	24	-2
Lab	190059	19.6%	-10.3	18	-24
Ind	77961	8.1%	+0.5	2	-2
Grn	31150	3.2%	+2.4
Oth	17798	1.8%	+1.7	1	+1

'Other' is Liberal in Peterborough North

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Con	355501	38.9%	+10.7	78	+50
Lab	273912	29.9%	-9.7	42	-44
LD	206751	22.6%	-1.2	26	-5
Ind	69832	7.6%	+0.1	4	-1
Grn	7586	0.8%	+0.2
Oth	1323	0.1%	-0.2

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	435974	39.6%	+11.3	86	+49
Con	309870	28.2%	-11.3	28	-56
LD	261700	23.8%	+2.3	31	+11
Ind	82866	7.5%	-1.4	5	-4
Grn	6346	0.6%	-0.7
Oth	2981	0.3%	-0.3

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Con	460570	39.5%	84
Lab	329204	28.3%	37
LD	250426	21.5%	20
Ind	103937	8.9%	9
Grn	14577	1.3%
Oth	6490	0.6%

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth	seats	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
1991	39.5%	28.3%	21.5%	8.9%	1.3%	0.6%		84	37	20	9
1995	28.2%	39.6%	23.8%	7.5%	0.6%	0.3%		28	86	31	5
1999	38.9%	29.9%	22.6%	7.6%	0.8%	0.1%		78	42	26	4
2003	42.2%	19.6%	25.1%	8.1%	3.2%	1.8%		105	18	24	2		1
2007	46.3%	15.3%	22.5%	6.7%	4.0%	5.2%		121	12	13	3	1
2011	43.9%	22.6%	16.2%	7.0%	5.1%	5.2%		112	25	8	4	1

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Cambridgeshire
Barton	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Brampton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cambridge East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cambridge North	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Cambridge South	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Lab
Cambridge West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Chatteris	Con	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Ely	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con	LD
Fletton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Fulbourn	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Histon	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Huntingdon & Godmanchester	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
March	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Melbourn	Ind	Con	Ind	LD	Con	Con
Orton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Papworth	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Peterborough East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Peterborough North	Con	Lab	LD	Lib	Con	Lab
Peterborough West	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ramsey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sawston	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Soham	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con
St Ives	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
St Neots	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Werrington	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whittlesey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wisbech	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Yaxley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Suffolk
Aldeburgh	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Beccles	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Bury St Edmunds	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Clare	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Eye	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Felixstowe	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Gipping	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hadleigh (Suffolk)	Con	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Haverhill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Ipswich Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ipswich East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ipswich North	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Ipswich SE	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Ipswich SW	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Kesgrave	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lothingland	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Lowestoft East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Lowestoft West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Mildenhall	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Newmarket	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Samford	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	LD	Con
Southwold	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stowmarket	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Sudbury	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Thedwastre	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Thingoe	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Woodbridge	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Norfolk
Acle	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Attleborough	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Aylsham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bradwell	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Coltishall	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	LD
Cromer & Sheringham	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Dereham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Diss	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Downham Market	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Fakenham	Con	Lab	Con	LD	LD	Con
Flegg	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Freebridge Lynn	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Harleston	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Hethersett	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Hunstanton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kings Lynn	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Launditch	Ind	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Loddon	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Marshland	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
North Walsham	Con	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Norwich Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Grn	Grn
Norwich East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Norwich North	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Norwich South	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Norwich West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sprowston	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Swaffham	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Taverham	LD	LD	Con	Con	LD	Con
Thetford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Wymondham	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Yarmouth North	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Yarmouth South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Essex
Basildon East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Basildon North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Basildon West	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Benfleet	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Billericay	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bocking	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Braintree	LD	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Brentwood	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD
Brightlingsea & Wivenhoe	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Burnham on Crouch	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Canvey Island	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Ind	Ind
Chafford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Chelmsford East	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Chelmsford North	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
Chelmsford West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Chigwell	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Chipping Ongar	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Clacton East	LD	Lab	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Clacton west	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Coggeshall	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Colchester East	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Colchester North	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Colchester South	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Colchester West	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Corringham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Epping	Con	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Fordham & Manningtree	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Frinton & Walton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Ind	Con
Grays	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Great Baddow	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Great Dunmow	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Hadleigh (Essex)	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Halstead	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hanningfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Harlow East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Harlow North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Harlow West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Harwich	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Hockley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hutton	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Laindon	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Loughton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Ind
Maldon	LD	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Mersea & Winstree	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ockendon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Orsett	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rayleigh	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Rochford	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Saffron Walden	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
South Woodham ferrers	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Southend Belfairs	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Southend Leigh	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Southend Shoeburyness	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Southend Southchurch	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Southend Victoria	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Southend Westborough	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Stansted	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Thaxted	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tilbury	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab	Lab
Tiptree	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Waltham Abbey	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wickford	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Witham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

I've just realised that the time I spent living in this region almost exactly corresponded to the period of Labour control between 1995 adn 1999

[Khunanup]

That Labour performance in North Norfolk is just mind blowing in '95. One of those places that has changed politically beyond all recognition. The last hurrah for them there I suppose.

[The Bishop]

The contrast between the Labour performance in 1995 and *all* other years is pretty amazing, actually.

Has been postulated as the last gasp of their old E Anglian rural vote......

[Khunanup]

Sept 16, 2012 18:45:50 GMT @trident said:

Sept 16, 2012 18:27:32 GMT The Bishop said:

The contrast between the Labour performance in 1995 and *all* other years is pretty amazing, actually.

Has been postulated as the last gasp of their old E Anglian rural vote......

I think part of the problem is that we probably didn't have to work very hard for those gains - they fell into our laps because the Tories were extraordinarily unpopular at the time. So there wouldn't have been much local organisation to sustain them in a more challenging political environment once we were in government.

Also, I think we generally failed to connect with voters in rural areas when we were in power, even where the demographic was potentially favourable to us. We were seen as very metropolitan-focused, and were hit by issues like petrol prices and post office closures.

Plus in many of those places we moved onto your turf to such an extent that your organisation there collapsed.

I would consider as well that that chance was in some places a logical one because the nature of our party 'fits' non Tory rural voters better than yours (especially with the demographic change that Bish alluded to above). Your natural centralising instinct and rigid party structure probably didn't help either.

That's not to say you can't do well in some of these places during a general election (after all, as you say there are plenty of potential voters receptive to your messages regardless of where they live) but it's unlikely you'll get the organisation to have a real impact consistantly unless you start to do things a bit differently.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Thanks Pete. Very interesting, and the boundaries look sensible to me. There are one or two seats I might put together differently but I think that's primarily a matter of individual taste, and most seats will draw themselves.

What was your target size for seats and how much of a difference would that make towards totals? My impression is that the Tories would have weathered 1995 better with smaller seats, but in other years they'd have helped smaller parties.

[Pete Whitehead]

The kind of electorate I'm looking for is around 20,000 but I have further constrained myself by insisting I have a round number of seats in each region, therefore the regions of Essex-East Anglia, Thames Chiltern and Sussex-Kent each have 150 seats which equates to average electorates of c. 20,000, 18,000 and 22,000 respectively. Larger regions obviously get more seats so for example the North West has 250 (average 21,000) - Yorkshire should have qualified for 200 seats (as the East and West Midlands do) but I went for 150 because of the difficulties otherwise presented by ward sizes and so has a larger average of around 24,000. Only Devon & Cornwall massively deviates from this average because it is a small region and I didn;t want to have fewer than 100 seats. Within regions I have allowed myself a certain leeway in order to respect natural comunities. At the most extreme, Kings Lynn has an electorate of 26,000 (compare with Maldon 17,000). Canvey Island is almost 27,000 but as with Isle of Wight it seems better to have an oversized seat than to break it up and link parts with the mainland. The vast majority of seats though don't deviate by much more than about 10% from the quota in each region

[baloo]

Wow Pete, just discovered this and it's incredible! Just one question, what is it? I can't find an explantion in the thread.

[Pete Whitehead]

Its kind of fantasy elections based on fantasy regional assemblies. I've drawn up FPTP seats for each region of England and calculated what the results would have been every four years since 1991 based on the local elections from those years. I've picked the cycle of seats which last voted in 2011 for the obvious reason that this is the only time that a large number of districts vote. For those wards which don't have elections those years (a fair number in the non-met districts) I've used figures for 2012 (2008, 2004 etc) and in some cases the earlier year (2006, 2002 etc)

[baloo]

Impressive. Most impressive. Your Merseyside boundaries look very reasonable. How do you draw the maps? I've drawn a map of Liverpool's wards on Excel that looks like it was done by a six year old.

[Pete Whitehead]

For the North West I have either Andrew Teale or David Boothroyd to thank (they both sent me outline maps at the time of the boundary review - I can't remember which I used here). For some other areas I have craftyed maps from those here commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Blank_maps_of_counties_of_England

[baloo]

Thanks Pete