Landtag elections 2011

[The Bishop]

London could surely wait until 2014 anyway??

As for the E Midlands, I would be quite interested even if nobody else is (lots of key marginals there, after all)

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 9, 2012 19:11:44 GMT The Bishop said:

London could surely wait until 2014 anyway??

Well I'd see it as the 2010 results there go with the 2011 ones in the other regions, 2008 with 2007 and so on. Obviouusly come 2014 I'll do the results for then as well then everywhere ele again in 2015

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 9, 2012 19:10:45 GMT tricky said:

Oct 9, 2012 18:15:24 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I might have a rest for a while

You should be working all year round - not just at election time.

;D have an exalt

[Pete Whitehead]

			Change	seats	change
Con	570247	38.5%	+0.5	105	+1
Lab	513326	34.6%	+8.4	79	+24
LD	198033	13.4%	-6.0	11	-17
Ind	129406	8.7%	-0.9	5	-8
Grn	24294	1.6%	-0.2
UKIP	22330	1.5%	+0.3
BNP	9420	0.6%	-1.9
Oth	15850	1.1%	-0.3

The Conservatives did rather well to retain control with a slightly increased majority despite a large narrowing of their popular vote lead over Labour. A number of seats were lost to Labour of course, mostly in the conurbations but these were more than offset by gains from the LDs and Independents and indeed one gain from Labour in Northampton. Northamptonshire in particular saw a very strong performance by the Tories. Labour made a good recovery in the former mining districts and made further good progress in the cities but failed to advance much in the kind of medium sized towns that are necessary to deliver them a majority (particularly, again in Northants). One highlight for them was coming apparently from nowhere to take Matlock from the LDs

Lab Gain from Con

Arnold
Braunstone
Buxton
Derby Breadsall
Derby Chaddesdden
Hucknall
Leicester Aylestone
Leicester Humberstone
Linton
Nottingham Mapperley
Retford

Lab Gain from LD

Brimington
Chesterfield North
Gedling
Grimsby East
Grimsby North
Grimsby West
Leicester Knighton
Matlock
Northampton Castle
Shepshed
Sutton in Ashfield West

Lab Gain from Ind

Mansfield East
Mansfield North
Mansfield West
Ollerton


Con Gain from LD

Blaby
Grimsby South
Northampton Abington
Northampton Eastfield
Ruddington
Saxilby
Stamford

Con Gain from Lab

Northampton Thorplands

Con Gain from Ind

Boston
Grantham East
Leake
Metheringham
Spilsby

Ind Gain from Con

Saxonwell

[Pete Whitehead]

[cibwr]

Fantastic work...

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	483687	38.0%	+0.8	103	+5
Lab	332765	26.2%	-5.1	55	-5
LD	246751	19.4%	-0.6	29	+1
Ind	121931	9.6%	+0.3	13	-1
BNP	31383	2.5%	+2.1
Grn	22480	1.8%	+0.7
UKIP	14877	1.2%	+0.9
Oth	17370	1.4%	+0.9

[Philip Davies]

<local self interest>Was it possible to have a New Mills/Whaley Bridge seat and the rest of the High Peak being Chapel-en-le-Frith like the old RD, leaving Glossop as it is?

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes I could do that. It would have been better wouldn't it. It wouldn;t be quite as per the old RD because I had one ward (Padfield) from Glossop in the New Mills seat so that would go in to Chapel. Also for the sake of numerical equality I'm minded to put Burbage in the Buxton seat - it also would seem to have much better links to there than the rest of the Chapel seat, although it was in the old Chapel RD. What do you think?

[Pete Whitehead]

WHat do you think about this Phil?



I'll have to change all my maps and everything but I don't mind doing it to improve the situation. I don't want to do it twice though so I'll wait for your go ahead or any other amendments

[Philip Davies]

Looks good. You could swap Padfield and Simmondley around. And move Blackbrook into NM and WB. Less disparity then!

Simmondley is more village-like. Similar-ish to Charlesworth and Chisworth. OTH the Tintiwistle ward now includes a bit of Padfield which is a good reason for your plan.

The St Johns and Tintwistle wards have 95%-99% of their electorates at the western end which makes things awkward

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	420056	37.2%	+3.0	98	+33
Lab	353593	31.3%	-7.4	60	-42
LD	225713	20.0%	+2.5	28	+4
Ind	105400	9.3%	+0.7	14	+5
Grn	12873	1.1%	+0.4
BNP	4265	0.4%	+0.4
UKIP	3186	0.3%	+0.3
Oth	5486	0.5%	+0.2

[Khunanup]

Great work as ever Pete, glad that under the amended scheme my dad's home 'landtag' onstituency is still yellow (no chance with my mum's though)!

Speaking of Lincolnshire, your base constituency map for Lincolnshire seems to have diappeared from the relevant post upthread.

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Lab	416758	38.7%	-9.5	102	-40
Con	368392	34.2%	+8.6	65	+39
LD	188141	17.5%	+1.4	24	+5
Ind	92703	8.6%	-0.4	9	-4
Grn	7211	0.7%	-0.2
Oth	3002	0.3%	0.0

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	616547	48.2%	+11.6	142	+56
Con	327378	25.6%	-12.6	26	-52
LD	205792	16.1%	+1.9	19	+4
Ind	115063	9.0%	+0.3	13	-8
Grn	11586	0.9%	-1.1
Oth	4096	0.3%	-0.1

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Con	558800	38.2%	78
Lab	535165	36.6%	86
LD	207317	14.2%	15
Ind	127592	8.7%	21
Grn	29712	2.0%
Oth	5320	0.4%

[The Bishop]

Excellent stuff as ever, Pete

I suppose we will have to wait until after next May's elections for the next one??

[Pete Whitehead]

No the next one is coming soon. Bit of a clue in my avatar

[Pete Whitehead]

Just to finish off this one

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Derbyshire
Alfreton	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ashbourne	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bakewell	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Belper	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Bolsover	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Brimington	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Buxton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Chapel en le Frith	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chesterfield North	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Chesterfield South	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Chesterfield West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Clay Cross	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Derby Allestree	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Derby Alvaston	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Derby Breadsall	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Derby Chaddesden	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Derby Mackworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Derby Mickleover	Con	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Derby Normanton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Derby Sinfin	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Dronfield	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Eckington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Glossop	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Heanor	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hilton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Horsley	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Ilkeston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Killamarsh	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Kirk Hallam	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Linton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Long Eaton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Matlock	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Melbourne	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
New Mills	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Ripley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sandiacre	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Shardlow	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Shirebrook	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
South Normanton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Staveley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Swadlincote	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wingerworth	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Wirksworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Nottinghamshire
Arnold	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Balderton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Beeston	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bingham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Calverton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Carlton	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab
Chilwell	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
East Retford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Eastwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Gedling	Con	Lab	Con	LD	LD	Lab
Harworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Hucknall	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Keyworth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kimberley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kirkby in Ashfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab	Lab
Mansfield East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Mansfield North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Mansfield South	Con	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Ind
Mansfield West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Newark	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Nottingham Basford	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Bestwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Broxtowe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Bulwell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Clifton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Mapperley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Nottingham Meadows	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Radford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Sherwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham St Ann's	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nottingham Wollaton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ollerton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Ruddington	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con
Selston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind
Southwell	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stapleford	Con	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Sutton in Ashfield East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab	Lab
Sutton in Ashfield West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	LD	Lab
Tuxford	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Warsop	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
West Bridgeford East	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
West Bridgeford West	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Worksop North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Worksop South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leicestershire & Rutland
Ashby de la Zouch	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Belvoir	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Billesdon	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Birstall	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Blaby	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Bosworth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Braunstone	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Broughton Astley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Castle Donington	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Coalville	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Earl Shilton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Glenfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Groby	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hinckley North	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	LD
Hinckley South	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	LD
Ibstock	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Leicester Abbey	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Leicester Aylestone	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leicester Braunstone	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Leicester Castle	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leicester Evington	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Leicester Humberstone	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Leicester Knighton	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Leicester Latimer	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leicester New Parks	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leicester Spinney Hill	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Leiceter Belgrave	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Loughborough East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Loughborough North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Loughborough South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lutterworth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Market Harboroug	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Melton Mowbray	LD	LD	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Narborough	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Oadby	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Rothley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Shepshed	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Sileby	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Syston	Con	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con
Wigston	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Rutland, Oakham	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Rutland, Uppingham	Ind	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con
Northamptonshire
Brackley	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Brixworth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Burton Latimer	Ind	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Byfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Corby North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Corby South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Daventry	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Earls Barton	Con	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Higham Ferrers	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Kettering North	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Kettering South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Long Buckby	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Northampton Abington	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Con
Northampton Billing	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Northampton Castle	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Northampton Duston	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Northampton Eastfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Con
Northampton Kingsthorpe	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Northampton Thorplands	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con
Northampton Wooton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Oundle	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Raunds & Thrapston	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Roade	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rothwell & Desborough	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rushden	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Towcester	Ind	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wellingborough North	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wellingborough South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Lincolnshire
Boston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Ind	Con
Bourne	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Donington	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Gainsborough	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Grantham East	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Ind	Con
Grantham West	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Heckington	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Holbeach	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Horncastle	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leake	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Ind	Con
Lincoln East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Lincoln South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Lincoln West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Long Sutton	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Louth	Ind	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Con
Mablethorpe	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Market Deeping	Con	LD	Con	Ind	Con	Con
Market Rasen	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Metheringham	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Nettleham	LD	LD	Ind	LD	Con	Con
North Hykeham	Con	Lab	LD	LD	Con	Con
Saxilby	Ind	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con
Saxonwell	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Skegness	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Sleaford	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Ind	Ind
Spalding	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Spilsby	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Stamford	Con	Con	Con	Con	LD	Con
Sutton on Sea	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Waddington	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
South 'Humberside'
Brigg	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cleethorpes	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Glanford	Ind	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Grimsby East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Grimsby North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Grimsby South	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Grimsby West	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Humberston	LD	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Immingham	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Isle of Axholme	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Scunthorpe North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Scunthorpe South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Scunthorpe West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab

[Pete Whitehead]

2010 London

			Change	seats	change
Lab	1206826	32.5%	+4.7	128	+37
Con	1179337	31.8%	-3.1	98	-20
LD	833429	22.5%	+1.8	22	-13
Grn	245443	6.6%	-1.2		-1
BNP	64085	1.7%	+0.7		-1
Ind	48415	1.3%	-0.7
Res	46438	1.3%	-0.1	2
UKIP	39407	1.1%	+0.1
Resp	17386	0.5%	-1.2		-1
Oth	31444	0.8%	-1.1		-1

Labour managed to win an overall majority with a tiny popular vote lead and an overall share of less than a third*
These elections being held in 2010 rather than 2011, the LDs did not see the large collapse in their vote share seen elsewhere - indeed their vote share rose - but due t their vote being more evenly spread they lost a large number of seats in areas like Brent, Islington and Lambeth where Labour were helped by general election turnout. Another feature of these elections (also at least partly attributable to general election turnout/voting patterns) was the disappearance of many of the minor parties which had appeared in 2006

*The overall vote shares for both Labour and Conservatives (and to a lesser extent the LDs) slightly understates their true position due to the method of calculating votes in multi-vacancy contests and the tendency of smaller parties to field less than a full slate of candidates, particularly where two or more small parties field only one candidate each in the same ward. Even so this probably only makes a difference of a percent or two overall

Lab Gain from Con

Acton North
Belvedere
Brentford
Hammersmith
Hanwell
Harold Hill
Harrow East
Harrow West
Ilford Valentines
Kingsbury
Lee
Morden
Newbury Park
Northolt
Palmers Green
Perivale
South Norwood
Tooting Bec
Wembley Park
West Norwood

Lab Gain from LD

Camden Town
Canonbury
Downham
Finsbury
Holloway
Kilburn
Lewisham Central
Penge
Streatham South
Vauxhall
Walthamstow West
Wembley Central
Wembley East

Lab Gain from Grn

Brockley

Lab Gain from BNP

Dagenham West

Lab Gain from Respect

Stepney

Lab Gain from Community

Isleworth

Con Gain from LD

Richmond
Teddington
The Crays
Twickenham

LD Gain from Con

Acton South
Highgate
Kingston
Worcester Park