Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

[Philip Davies]

What is the seat called between Southall East and the two Ealings? Ealing West?

[Pete Whitehead]

That is Hanwell. I always seem to manage to miss one off the map

[iainbhx]

Awesome stuff, Pete. Have an exalt.

[erlend]

Impressive.

Is there a name missing in a West Hampstead seat? Do you have seats crossing Watling Street breaching Borough boundaries, such as Kilburn and hendon South. I thought you would disapprove of that! I might have done but am less pure on such things!

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 10, 2013 13:15:49 GMT erlend said:

Impressive.

Is there a name missing in a West Hampstead seat? Do you have seats crossing Watling Street breaching Borough boundaries, such as Kilburn and hendon South. I thought you would disapprove of that! I might have done but am less pure on such things!

Yes the name missing from the West Hampstead seat is West Hampstead

There are five seats that cross borough boundaries. It is not necessarily ideal (especially as in most cases they also cross the old LCC boundary) but was partly done for reaons of electoral equality (some boroughs with odd numbers of wards made it difficult to draw seats wholly within them). More often however the reason was because natural communities cross borough boundaries
The five cross borough seats are
Kilburn (Brent/Camden)
Highgate (Camden/Haringey)
Shoreditch (Hackney/Tower Hamlets)
Mottingham (Greenwich/Bromley)
Thamesmead (Greenwich/Bexley)

[erlend]

That Highgate would be Camden Islingto I guess or is it Camden Haringry?

[cibwr]

Jan 10, 2013 11:59:39 GMT iainbhx said:

Awesome stuff, Pete. Have an exalt.

Seconded!

[johnloony]

If i were pedantic and squaggulous, would disagree with many (or even most) of the boundaries (i.e. ward pairings) in Croydon, but otherwise awesome and amazing and et cetera as usual

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 11, 2013 3:58:05 GMT johnloony said:

If i were pedantic and squaggulous

You are so feel free to give me your suggestions. I probably won't change anything at this stage because its a faff changing all the maps, but there were a number of different alternatives in Croydon and I'm happy to hear which of these you think would be better

[erlend]

Having done the odd piece of questioning yesterday I just realised I hadn't exalted Pete for his next thrilling installment. Have now done so!!!

[johnloony]

Jan 11, 2013 8:38:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 11, 2013 3:58:05 GMT johnloony said:

If i were pedantic and squaggulous

You are so feel free to give me your suggestions. I probably won't change anything at this stage because its a faff changing all the maps, but there were a number of different alternatives in Croydon and I'm happy to hear which of these you think would be better

Coulsdon is OK.

Next: Purley should be paired with Kenley, which is a sort-of extension of Purley along the valley between the hill ridges.

Next: Croham and Sanderstead (for the same reason).

Then: Croydon Central needs no change

Then: The outer ring of Croydon North needs to be shifted round, so that:
(a) Selhurst is paired with South Norwood*;
(b) Upper Norwood is paired with Norbury*;
(c) West Thornton is paired with Broad Green**.

* both having "Norwood" in the name doesn't mean they are like a continuing community: there is a cultural boundary between them
** they are culturally & ehtnically similar and are joined along the London Road which goes north-south.

Specifically, Broad Green and West Thornton are predominantly slightly more Asian than average, whereas Bensham Manor and Thornton Heath are predominantly slightly more Black than average.

---------

OR

---------

Purley and Kenley

Sanderstead and Selsdon & Ballards (they used to be in the same ward decades ago)

Heathfield and Shirley (there is more of a continuum from Shirley to Heathfield than there is from Shirley to Ashburton)

Ashburton and Addiscombe (Ashburton is a sort-of eastern extension of Addiscombe)

Fairfield and Croham (joined along the Brighton Road)

Waddon and Broad Green (they used to be paired in the Neighbourhood Partnership system)

Woodside and South Norwood (there is more continuity between SN and W. than there is between SN and UN)

Selhurst and Thornton Heath
Bensham Manor and West Thornton*
Upper Norwood and Norbury

* both are separated from Thornton Heath ward by the railway.

--------------------

On balance, my first list is probably slightly less sguaggulous and combobulatory than the second. The second list would be better for Croydon Central, and the first list would be better for Croydon North - but of course they are mutually exclusive.

[Pete Whitehead]

2006

			Change	seats	change
Con	743945	34.9%	+0.8	118	+29
Lab	592790	27.8%	-6.2	91	-32
LD	442041	20.7%	+0.1	35
Grn	165439	7.8%	+2.3	1	+1
Ind	42505	2.0%	+0.7
Resp	37097	1.7%	+1.7	1	+1
Res	23812	1.1%	-0.4	2	-1
BNP	22085	1.0%	+0.7	1	+1
UKIP	21038	1.0%	+0.5
Oth	40830	1.9%	-0.4	1	+1

[Pete Whitehead]

2002

			Change	seats	change
Con	584832	34.1%	+1.9	89	+17
Lab	582779	34.0%	-6.6	123	-21
LD	353541	20.6%	-0.3	35	+2
Grn	94598	5.5%	+2.6
Res	25489	1.5%	+0.2	3	+2
Ind	21670	1.3%	+0.1
Oth	53119	3.1%	+2.1

[Richard Allen]

Big time "wrong winner result" in 2002. How about a Con/LD/Res administration.

[Pete Whitehead]

1998

			Change	seats	change
Lab	701697	40.6%	-0.7	144	+2
Con	556483	32.2%	+1.0	72	-1
LD	361231	20.9%	-1.4	33	-1
Grn	50575	2.9%	+0.7
Res	22437	1.3%	+0.2	1
Ind	19979	1.2%	+/-0.0
Oth	17582	1.0%	+0.4

[The Bishop]

I had a feeling 1994 and 1998 might be similar, but not *that* much!!

[Pete Whitehead]

Similar in total numbers of seats, but there's quite a number switching hands in various directions

[Pete Whitehead]

So.. spot the difference

1994

			Change	seats	change
Lab	913463	41.3%	+2.7	142	+16
Con	691183	31.2%	-6.7	73	-31
LD	494358	22.3%	+8.1	34	+15
Grn	49437	2.2%	-3.6
Ind	26026	1.2%	+0.5
Res	24733	1.1%	-0.4	1
Oth	13474	0.6%	-0.7

[Pete Whitehead]

Another loose end to be tied

1990

			seats
Lab	926011	38.6%	126
Con	907789	37.9%	104
LD	340487	14.2%	19
Grn	138886	5.8%
Res	35440	1.5%	1
Ind	17161	0.7%
Oth	30735	1.3%