Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm glad if they're useful as well as fun - and in most of your part of the world, you're the lesser of two evils anyway

[The Bishop]

They are useful to my side too, you know

[Pete Whitehead]

To all side no doubt so should be neutral.
I'm finding the frequency with which ward boundaries changed in Halton and Warrington in the 1990s to be extremely tedious I must say - that must be what drove the residents to drink!

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Lab	590254	39.8%	-11.9	134	-49
Con	424767	28.6%	+5.5	63	+37
LD	366824	24.7%	+4.1	46	+12
Ind	74233	5.0%	+1.5	6	-1
Grn	14667	1.0%	+0.6
Oth	13871	0.9%	+0.2	1	+1

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	955004	51.7%	+11.4	183	+54
Con	426148	23.1%	-9.6	26	-48
LD	381032	20.6%	-0.1	34	-4
Ind	64658	3.5%	-0.2	7	-1
Grn	7647	0.4%	-1.1
Oth	13120	0.7%	-0.5		-1

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Lab	904642	40.3%	129
Con	734584	32.7%	74
LD	464762	20.7%	38
Ind	84105	3.7%	8
Grn	32903	1.5%
Oth	25903	1.2%	1

The 'other' seat is SDP in Liverpool, Woolton

[The Bishop]

I assume the last map is 1991??

Shows how dreadful the Barrow results were for us that year - I remember it well

Where is that very lonely bit of blue in the 1995 map - Tottington area?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 31, 2012 17:49:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Shows how dreadful the Barrow results were for us that year - I remember it well

Indeed - I don't remember it at all (not one of the boroughs i follow the most closely as you can imagine) which is one of the reasons this exercise is useful for me - it has reminded me of quite a few other results which i would otherwise forget. The 1991 results in Barrow were strikingly bad for Labour/good for the Tories which makes the big swing in 1992 all the more surprising. It does seem to be a very contrary place

Jul 31, 2012 17:49:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Where is that very lonely bit of blue in the 1995 map - Tottington area?

No Tottington is in Bury West which went Labour that year. This is Bolton Heaton where the Conservatives were probably saved by the absence of a Labour candidate in Deane-cum-Heaton ward

[Pete Whitehead]

You must be proud to live in a seat that was still Tory in 1995 Bish?

[The Bishop]

A bit surprising given that we nearly won Bootle ward that year - though the Tories held up a bit better in Millom than we would have wished........

What were the actual figures then, out of interest??

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth	seats	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	Oth
1991	32.7%	40.3%	20.7%	3.7%	1.5%	1.2%		74	129	38	8		1
1995	23.1%	51.7%	20.6%	3.5%	0.4%	0.7%		26	183	34	7
1999	28.6%	39.8%	24.7%	5.0%	1.0%	0.9%		63	134	46	6		1
2003	30.6%	35.0%	24.8%	4.5%	2.0%	3.1%		74	117	51	6		2
2007	33.7%	31.4%	24.3%	3.5%	2.6%	4.5%		92	94	55	7	2
2011	30.2%	45.5%	14.0%	4.4%	2.7%	3.2%		70	162	13	5

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Cumbria
Appleby	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD
Barrow East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Barrow West	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Brampton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Carlisle East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Carlisle North	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Carlisle South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cockermouth	Con	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Egremont	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Kendal	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Kirkby Lonsdale	Con	LD	Con	Con	LD	LD
Lonsdale	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Maryport	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Millom & Ennerdale	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Penrith	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Ulverston	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whitehaven	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wigton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Windermere	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Workington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Lancashire
Accrington	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bacup	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Lab	Lab
Bamber Bridge	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Blackburn Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Blackburn East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Blackburn South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Blackburn West	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Blackpool Claremont	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Blackpool Layton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Blackpool Norbreck	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Blackpool Stanley	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Blackpool Victoria	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Bowland	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Brierfield	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Burnley North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Burnley South	Lab	Lab	Lab	BNP	LD	LD
Burscough	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chorley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Clitheroe	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Colne	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Con
Darwen	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	Darw	Lab
Euxton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Farington	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Fleetwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Garstang	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Great Harwood	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Haslingden	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Heysham	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Kirkham	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Lancaster North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Lab
Lancaster South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Grn	Lab
Leyland	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Longridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Longton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lunesdale	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lytham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Morecambe	Ind	Lab	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Nelson	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Ormskirk	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Oswaldtwistle	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Padiham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Penwortham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Poulton le Fylde	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Preesall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Preston East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Preston North	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Preston South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Preston West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Rawtenstall	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ribble Valley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Skelmersdale	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
St Annes	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Thornton Cleveleys	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Withnell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Cheshire
Alderley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Alsager	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Appleton	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Butonwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Chester North	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Chester South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chester West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cholmondeley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Congleton	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con
Crewe East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Crewe West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Culcheth	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Ellesmere Port N	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ellesmere Port South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Frodsham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Great Sankey	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Hartford	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Knutsford	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lymm	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Macclesfield North	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Macclesfield South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Middlewich	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Nantwich	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Neston	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Northwich	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Poynton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Runcorn East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Runcorn West	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Sandbach	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tarvin	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Warrington East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Warrington North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Warrington South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Widnes East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Widnes West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wilmslow	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Winsford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Merseyside
Aintree	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bebington	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Lab
Birkenhead East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Birkenhead North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
BIrkenhead South	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Birkenhead West	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Bootle North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bootle South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Crosby	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Formby	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Haydock	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Heswall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hoylake	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Huyton North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Huyton South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Kirkby East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Kirkby West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Abercromby	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Allerton	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Anfield	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Broadgreen	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Fairfield	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Garston	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Halewood	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Kirkdale	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Mossley Hill	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Norris Green	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Toxteth	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool Tuebrook	LD	Lab	Lib	Lib	LD	Lab
Liverpool Walton	LD	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab
Liverpool Wavertree	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Liverpool West Derby	LD	Lab	LD	Lab	LD	Lab
Liverpool Woolton	SDP	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Maghull	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Moreton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Newton	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Port Sunlight	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Prescot	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rainford	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Seacombe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Southport East	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Southport South	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Southport West	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
St Helens North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
St Helens South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
St Helens West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wallasey	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Waterloo	LD	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Greater Manchester
Altrincham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ashton in Makerfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ashton under Lyne	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bolton Great Lever	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bolton Heaton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bolton Leverhulme	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bolton Queens Park	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bolton Smithills	Con	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Con
Bolton Tonge	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bramhall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bredbury	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Lab
Bury East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bury North	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Bury West	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chadderton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cheadle Gatley	Ind	Ind	LD	Ind	LD	Ind
Cheadle Hulme	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Crompton	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Davyhulme	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Denton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Droylsden	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dukinfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Eccles	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Failsworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Farnworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hale & Bowdon	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hazel Grove	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Heatons	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Heywood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hindley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Horwich	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Hyde	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ince	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Irlam	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leigh North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Leigh South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Littleborough	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Lowton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Ardwick	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Blackley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Burnage	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Manchester Cheetham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Clayton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Didsbury	Con	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Manchester Exchange	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Gorton	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Manchester Moss Side	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Moston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Northenden	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Manchester Ringway	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Manchester Rusholme	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Manchester Whalley Range	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Manchester Withington	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Manchester Wythenshawe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Marple	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Middleton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Oldham East	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Oldham South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Oldham West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Orrell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Prestwich	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Radcliffe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ramsbottom	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Reddish	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rochdale North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Rochdale South	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Rochdale West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Romiley	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Royton	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Saddleworth	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Sale East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sale West	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Salford North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Salford South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Salford West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
South Turton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stalybridge	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Standish	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Stockport East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Stockport West	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stretford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Swinton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Tyldesley	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Urmston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Walkden	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Westhougton	Con	Lab	LD	LD	Con	Lab
Whitefield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Wigan North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wigan South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Winstanley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Worsley	LD	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 31, 2012 18:17:44 GMT The Bishop said:

A bit surprising given that we nearly won Bootle ward that year - though the Tories held up a bit better in Millom than we would have wished........

What were the actual figures then, out of interest??

Con 4206 48.7%
Lab 3379 39.2%
LD 460 5.3%
Ind 340 3.9%
SDP 244 2.8%

Even in Millom town Labour were only just ahead. I actually do remember that from the time as it led me to believe it must be quite a nice place (of course things are never quite that simple, for example the Conservatives carried Wellingborough that year and no-one would say that is nice)

[The Bishop]

Millom is a bit unpredictable in its voting at local level - not unlike Barrow.

Oh, and I recall the SDP candidate in that election all too well. Joined the "continuity" Liberals a few years later and, last I heard, was in the same party as you ;D

[Pete Whitehead]

Can't argue with that

[andrewteale]

If I get time (so, not this weekend) I'll try and do a cartogram of the North West Landtag

[erlend]

And I see from his avatar that we are expecting Pete's next magnum opus soon. Exalt in advance.

[Pete Whitehead]

			Change	seats	change
Lab	588721	40.7%	+12.6	94	+35
Con	408134	28.2%	-0.3	47	-8
LD	208472	14.4%	-7.5	6	-22
Ind	97110	6.7%	-0.2	3	-3
Grn	73143	5.1%	+0.5		-1
UKIP	27294	1.9%	+0.9
BNP	16309	1.1%	-6.4
Oth	26193	1.8%	+0.1		-1

Lab Gain from LD

Colne Valley
Doncaster North
Ecclesfield
Hull Beverley
Hull Boothferry
Hull Bransholme
Hull Holderness
Hull Newland
Hull Sutton
Leeds Headingley (2)
Leeds Moortown (2)
Sheffield Broomhill
Stocksbridge
Todmorden
York West

Lab Gain from con

Bradford Clayton
Bradford Moor
Haworth
Keighley
Ossett
Pontefract
Pudsey (2)
Wakefield East
Wakefield West
Wickersley

Lab Gain from Ind

Armthorpe
Barnsley North
Elmshall
Morley (2)

Lab Gain from Green

Shipley

Lab Gain from Cty Grp

Hatfield

Con Gain from LD

Baildon
Doncaster South
Haltemprice
Haxby

Con Gain from Ind

Swaledale

Ind Gain from LD

Richmond

Ind Gain from Con

Scarborough South

The 11 seats covering the city of Leeds are 2-member as we discussed. I've gone for a winner takes all system there in preference to any alternatives such as D'Hondt

[Pete Whitehead]

[Pete Whitehead]