Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

I can do some larger scale maps of the more built up area (as per the key map) if required

[The Bishop]

<applauds>

[Philip Davies]

Very interesting. How did you constitute the Bredbury and Romiley divisions?

[john07]

I am interested in the Independents projected. You have Cheadle Gatley down as Independent presumably based on the Heald Green Residents Association performance. However they only seem to contest Heald Green ward and I can't recall them putting up candidates for the Greater Manchester Council electoral division that is very similar to Cheadle Gatley.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 19, 2012 14:23:18 GMT Philip Davies said:

Very interesting. How did you constitute the Bredbury and Romiley divisions?

In an ideal world the two Bredbury wards would have formed a single seat. However I needed to make a cross-borough seat somewhere (as Stockport has an odd number of wards) and Stockport/Tameside here was the least bad available option. Therefore the seat called Bredbury is actually formed from Bredbury and Woodley and Hyde Werneth while Romiley is Bredbury Green and Romiley plus Offerton. I must admit that the 'Bredbury seat is one of the least satisfactory of my creations here

Jul 19, 2012 14:39:59 GMT john07 said:

I am interested in the Independents projected. You have Cheadle Gatley down as Independent presumably based on the Heald Green Residents Association performance. However they only seem to contest Heald Green ward and I can't recall them putting up candidates for the Greater Manchester Council electoral division that is very similar to Cheadle Gatley.

Yes this one is formed from Cheadle & Gatley and Heald Green. Although the residents only contest the latter ward, they won there such a large vote there that they outpolled both the Conservatives and LDs who had candidates in both wards

[andrewteale]

Brilliant work Pete which deserves applause. In the absence of that, have an exalt instead.

Some of the Bolton boundaries look a little odd , but really there isn't anything better I can see. Three divisions in Bolton basically draw themselves - Horwich, Westhoughton, and South Turton - the one you've called Bradshaw but South Turton is a better name - and once you realise that the only ward you can add Kearsley to is Farnworth the rest of the map drops into place.

I'd take issue with Bolton Halliwell as a name though. Halliwell ward is a little misnamed as the area known as Halliwell to locals is the middle and upper Halliwell Road, which is in Crompton ward. (The ward is basically named after the old parish of St Paul's Halliwell.) Queen's Park would probably be a better name for Halliwell ward, and Bolton Gilnow (or Bolton West) for the division.

The name Bolton Leverhulme is a nice touch, and also saves people trying to work out how Breightmet is pronounced.

[hullenedge]

Pete deserves a medal. Brilliant. Can't wait for Yorkshire.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks - but given the size of the wards in the Met boroughs (and not just the Met boroughs - East Riding as well), Yorkshire is a nightmare. You may have a long wait

[hullenedge]

Don't mind waiting at all. This may be a huge no-no but have you considered double-member divisions for parts of Yorkshire.?West Yorks County Council had to do it for the Bradford area to make the numbers fit.

[Pete Whitehead]

I have considered that yes but i'd be loath to do it. I'll probably have to setlle for some hideously disparate electorate sizes. Leeds is the particular problem there and it could be soolved by grouping three wards together into two-member divisions - possibly doing the same with Sheffield (this solution could be applied to the slight conundrum I have with Coventry as well)

[tricky]

I hope I did the chicken run!

[erlend]

Wouldnt it be easiest to make the seats the size of Leeds wards and adjust the size of the Landtag.

[Pete Whitehead]

If only it were that easy. The average size of Leeds wards is around 16,500 with the largest being 18,500. In the West Midlands Birmingham wards of that size and large can be generally matched by doubling up wards in the other Met boroughs but not so in West Yorkshire. The average electorate in Kirklees for example is 13,000, those in Bradford 11,000 and so on

[greatkingrat]

The problem is that if you pick a convenient seat size for Leeds, it doesn't work for Bradford or Sheffield and vice versa.

[Pete Whitehead]

I've had a crack at West Yorkshire and using three Leeds wards as two-member seats seems to work well - the rest falls into place. I think i'll go with this as the least worst option and it might be able to have limited application elsewhere. Not sure whether in such cases whether to award both seats to the winning party or adopt a D'Hondt system. I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.

[Pete Whitehead]

I accept all the name changes propsed by Andrew and in addition I propse to rename the division I have called 'Atherton' as 'Tyldesley'. I'll consider any other suggested name changes but I can't accept any changes to the actual boundaries as it would require too much work to redo results, maps etc,

Here is the result from 2007 for Lancastria

			Change	seats	change
Con	598739	33.7%	+3.1	92	+18
Lab	556772	31.4%	-3.6	94	-23
LD	430701	24.3%	-0.5	55	+4
Ind	62566	3.5%	-1.0	7	+1
Grn	46347	2.6%	+0.6	2	+2
BNP	35563	2.0%	+0.5		-1
Oth	44956	2.5%	+0.9		-1

The seat lost by 'Others' was Liverpool Tuebrook which was previously held by the Liberal Party

[Deleted]

Pete, a thousand well dones for your map

If I may suggest some name changes

9) Preston North --> Fulwood
10) Preston East --> Ribbleton
11) Preston South --> Preston
12) Preston West --> Ashton-on-Ribble

Longridge --> Amounderness and Bowland

I'd prefer "Longridge" and "Burscough" to renamed but not sure of the full extent of their boundaries so will leave as per.

But yeah, superb work, very good.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks doktorb. I have a Bowland seat which is to the East of Longridge and covers a similar area to the old Bowland RD which was of course in Yorkshire and my division also includes Barnoldswick and Earby. Isnt Amoundness somewhere in Wyre?

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Lab	602695	35.0%	-4.8	117	-17
Con	527743	30.6%	+2.0	74	+11
LD	427174	24.8%	+0.1	51	+5
Ind	77709	4.5%	-0.5	6
Grn	35018	2.0%	+1.0
BNP	25578	1.5%	+1.5	1	+1
Oth	27597	1.6%	+0.7	1

[tricky]

Pete your maps are fantastic and wonderful to look at.

I feel it only right to warn you that I am also finding them to be useful!