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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 8:45:25 GMT
IIRC that western bit of the Vale (around St Brides Major) used to be part of the old Ogwr district and was only moved into the Vale of Glamorgan in maybe 1995.. Not sure exactly where the boundary lay at that time, but guessing Wick was in the Bridgend seat prior to the 1997 election?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 9:01:05 GMT
The problem is you are so constrained now by the size of wards in Scotland. Pretty much you have to have one seat each covering the Glasgow and Edinburgh wards which for the most part are around the 20k electors we are looking for, but you have some huge disparity (13k in Springburn, 26k in Partick West being the most extreme). Everywhere else is going to be basically doubling up wards and you're not left with a lot of choice about how to do this. You also have problems due to odd numbers of wards in some counties like Renfrewshire meaning you would either have to cross those boundaries or have a very-oversized 3 ward seat or very undersized single ward seat. Finally (and this may not be all that important) you aren't going to be able to get an even 200 seats or whatever - when I had a play around with this I ended up with about 183 or something and to get it up to 200 again you'd have to create some terribly undersized seats. One other issue for me is that with this exercise I like to take the thing back as far as I can go with available data (which now is to the early 70s). I'm not sure how easy it would be to fit the pre-2007 wards into the new ones though don't think this would be a huge problem. More problematic is that except for a couple of areas, I don't have ward maps. If I had those I would be able to draw up decent land seats based on the pre-2007 wards and just run the exercise from 1973-2003 or whatever |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 10:02:28 GMT
OK then, paging anyone who has accurate pre-2007 scottish ward maps (andrewteale has some basic ones on his truly amazing site)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 10:15:01 GMT
Yes of course, Andrew's site will have the last set of boundaries before the move to STV. I think a lot of these though were relatively new then so for elections in the 1990s and earlier there will be different boundaries again. I think these boundaries are available somewhere online as I remember working on some notional results for Scotland in the late 90s ( ntyuk1707 will probably be the best source for these). The old Alba Scottish elections was good for ward boundary maps in Glasgow and Edinburgh (in Glasgow they seemed to change every few years) but I think that site unfortunately disappeared a while ago. This is something that Kristofer Keane should try and sort out now he has more time on his hands  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 11:41:05 GMT
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 11:42:48 GMT
wait, KristoferKeane now calls himself ScottishElections?
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 12:37:06 GMT
So, what do you think of 100 seat wales Pete Whitehead?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 13:11:10 GMT
So, what do you think of 100 seat wales Pete Whitehead? I don't like it as much as a 150 seat Wales which is why I opted not to do 100 seats. Are you going to do a map of the results? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 7, 2016 13:38:23 GMT
IIRC that western bit of the Vale (around St Brides Major) used to be part of the old Ogwr district and was only moved into the Vale of Glamorgan in maybe 1995.. Not sure exactly where the boundary lay at that time, but guessing Wick was in the Bridgend seat prior to the 1997 election? Yes, Peter Hubbard-Miles was the MP 1983-87. Certainly my birth was registered in Ogwr rather than the Vale (I've just looked at the certificate) and I believe you have to register in the district you live in rather than where the child is born (maybe wrong on this one). |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 7, 2016 13:41:10 GMT
The problem is you are so constrained now by the size of wards in Scotland. Pretty much you have to have one seat each covering the Glasgow and Edinburgh wards which for the most part are around the 20k electors we are looking for, but you have some huge disparity (13k in Springburn, 26k in Partick West being the most extreme). Everywhere else is going to be basically doubling up wards and you're not left with a lot of choice about how to do this. You also have problems due to odd numbers of wards in some counties like Renfrewshire meaning you would either have to cross those boundaries or have a very-oversized 3 ward seat or very undersized single ward seat. Finally (and this may not be all that important) you aren't going to be able to get an even 200 seats or whatever - when I had a play around with this I ended up with about 183 or something and to get it up to 200 again you'd have to create some terribly undersized seats. One other issue for me is that with this exercise I like to take the thing back as far as I can go with available data (which now is to the early 70s). I'm not sure how easy it would be to fit the pre-2007 wards into the new ones though don't think this would be a huge problem. More problematic is that except for a couple of areas, I don't have ward maps. If I had those I would be able to draw up decent land seats based on the pre-2007 wards and just run the exercise from 1973-2003 or whatever There are no maps of the provisional wards used in the 1974/1978 regionals. The 1st Review wards were drawn up in the late 80's but not in use, uniformly until 1982 (they existed on paper for several years and were used in drawing up constituencies) I'm currently using them to make 1974-1992 notionals. A few adjustments were made in 1986. I have paint maps of all these, but you can find maps on the Wikipedia pages for the respective Regional Elections. Ward maps can be found on the Local Government Boundary Commission website. The then largest Electoral Divisions were those use for Strathclyde Regional Council with an average electorate of just about 17,000 when first established. Smaller ED's were allowed in Argyll and Bute and Clydesdale for sparsity purposes. That would be a fair base to start with. 1986  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 14:00:08 GMT
Apologies Andrew - I think it was you I was thinking of rather than ntyuk as the resident expert on Scottish ward boundaries
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 7, 2016 14:44:08 GMT
The problem is you are so constrained now by the size of wards in Scotland. Pretty much you have to have one seat each covering the Glasgow and Edinburgh wards which for the most part are around the 20k electors we are looking for, but you have some huge disparity (13k in Springburn, 26k in Partick West being the most extreme). Everywhere else is going to be basically doubling up wards and you're not left with a lot of choice about how to do this. You also have problems due to odd numbers of wards in some counties like Renfrewshire meaning you would either have to cross those boundaries or have a very-oversized 3 ward seat or very undersized single ward seat. Finally (and this may not be all that important) you aren't going to be able to get an even 200 seats or whatever - when I had a play around with this I ended up with about 183 or something and to get it up to 200 again you'd have to create some terribly undersized seats. One other issue for me is that with this exercise I like to take the thing back as far as I can go with available data (which now is to the early 70s). I'm not sure how easy it would be to fit the pre-2007 wards into the new ones though don't think this would be a huge problem. More problematic is that except for a couple of areas, I don't have ward maps. If I had those I would be able to draw up decent land seats based on the pre-2007 wards and just run the exercise from 1973-2003 or whatever There are no maps of the provisional wards used in the 1974/1978 regionals. The 1st Review wards were drawn up in the late 80's but not in use, uniformly until 1982 (they existed on paper for several years and were used in drawing up constituencies) I'm currently using them to make 1974-1992 notionals. A few adjustments were made in 1986. I have paint maps of all these, but you can find maps on the Wikipedia pages for the respective Regional Elections. Ward maps can be found on the Local Government Boundary Commission website. The then largest Electoral Divisions were those use for Strathclyde Regional Council with an average electorate of just about 17,000 when first established. Smaller ED's were allowed in Argyll and Bute and Clydesdale for sparsity purposes. That would be a fair base to start with. 1986 Why are there no maps for the 1974/78 regionals? |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 7, 2016 14:51:06 GMT
None digitised anyway. You can sort of work them out from descriptions but that requires details of pre 74 boundaries. Rather than describe the boundary they might just say Polling District A in Ward 1. Which makes some areas impossible to map.
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 22:54:01 GMT
So, what do you think of 100 seat wales Pete Whitehead? I don't like it as much as a 150 seat Wales which is why I opted not to do 100 seats. Are you going to do a map of the results? How do you make your amazing maps? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2016 22:56:58 GMT
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 22:59:42 GMT
But how do you colour it in and get rid of the unnecessary lines?
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 7, 2016 23:48:54 GMT
SCOTLAND 200 SEATS average 19,214 Orkney & Shetland Orkney & Shetland 34552 Western Isles Western Isles 21769 Caithnessshire Caithnessshire 19568 Sutherlandshire Sutherland 17406 Rossshire and Cromartyshire Cromartyshire 17171 Rossshire 26453 Argyllshire & Buteshire Oban & Lochaber 18842 Kintyre 17873 Cowal & Bute 21042 Invernessshire Badenoch 16512 Inverness Lochside 17682 Inverness Firthside 21466 Culloden 18794 Nairnshire & Elginshire Nairnshire 20474 Elgin 17125 Fochabers 18440 Banffshire Buckie 22438 Banff 16083  Aberdeenshire Fraserburgh 21472 Peterhead 19506 Ellon 23572 Deeside 20520 Turriff 18263 Inverurie 19909 Aberdeen Westhill 22788 Aberdeen Dyce 14408 Aberdeen Donside 14267 Aberdeen Kingswells 21833 Aberdeen Hazlehead 13153 Aberdeen Hilton 20674 Aberdeen Harbour 17722 Aberdeen Harbour 24908 Kincardineshire Aberdeen Kincorth 12104 Stonehaven 22728 Kincardine 19960  Forfarshire Fofar 19900 Montrose 20045 Arbroath 22704 Carnoustie 10133 Dundee Monifeith 23658 Dundee Ferry 15812 Dundee Maryfield 22794 Dundee Strathmartine 14517 Dundee Coldside 13549 Dundee Lochee 25457 Perthshire & Kinrossshire Coupar Angus 19024 Pitlochry 22137 Perth North 20923 Perth South 19463 Kinrossshire 17855 Crieff & Callander 16804  Fife St Andrews 19566 East Neuk 20267 Leven 14414 Buckhaven 13441 Falkland 11496 Glenrothes North East 23912 Glenrothes South West 22742 Kirkcaldy East 21637 Kirkcaldy West 21621 Cowdenbeath 20613 Dunfermline North 24508 Dunfermline South 16002 Rosyth 23682 Culross 14062 Clackmannanshire Dollar 19712 Alloa 17453  Stirlingshire Stirling Dunblane 18476 Stirling Forth 18806 Stirling Bannockburn 17695 Falkirk Carron 15207 Falkirk Grangemouth 26612 Falkirk Polmont 15806 Falkirk Braes 13460 Denny 25943 Kilsyth 18336 Dunbartonshire Cumbernauld East 25092 Cumbernauld West 13908 Kirkintilloch 20682 Bishopbriggs 20491 Bearsden 21669 Milngavie 19225 Clydebank 22877 Dumbarton 13055 Balloch 21849 Helensburgh 16132  Linlithgowshire Borrowstounness 23174 Broxburn 14155 Armadale 18625 Bathgate 15781 Whitburn & Blackburn 26205 Livingston North 16463 Livingston South 16746 Livingston East 14908 Edinburghshire Edinburgh Almond 20061 Edinburgh Gyle 17560 Edinburgh Murrayfield 17373 Edinburgh Inverleith 23295 Edinburgh Forth 21944 Edinburgh Leith 17039 Edinburgh Rosebank 20394 Edinburgh Central 14066 Edinburgh Craigentinny 18719 Edinburgh Portobello 18016 Edinburgh Liberton 23654 Edinburgh Swanston 18588 Edinburgh Newington 19044 Edinburgh Morningside 22165 Edinburgh Craiglockhart 16786 Edinburgh Sighthill 22985 Edinburgh Pentland Hills 16975 Edinburgh Penicuik 21789 Edinburgh Bonnyrigg 22983 Edinburgh Dalkeith 20536 Edinburgh Musselburgh 18011 Haddingtonshire Prestonpans 13962 Haddington 23916 Dunbar 20264  Lanarkshire Glasgow Drumchapel 21701 Glasgow Garscadden 21303 Glasgow Patrick 26283 Glasgow Hillhead 20562 Glasgow Anderston 20221 Glasgow Kelvin 22031 Glasgow Ashfield 22712 Glasgow Springburn 13330 Glasgow Hogganfield 24672 Glasgow Baillieston 24977 Glasgow Alexandra 22299 Glasgow Shettleston 20831 Glasgow Calton 17365 Glasgow Gorbals 20707 Glasgow Langside 19596 Glasgow Linn 22438 Glasgow Auldburn 17472 Glasgow Maxwell 17821 Glasgow Govan 22110 Glasgow Craigton 23078 Glasgow Pollok 24844 Strathkelvin 15964 Coatbridge North 14027 Coatbridge South 22167 Airdrie North 14769 Airdrie South 26265 Shotts 25565 Wishaw 14020 Motherwell South East 13572 Motherwell North West 23313 Bellshill 20301 Uddingston 21673 Rutherglen 21311 Cambuslang 24326 East Kilbride North 22431 East Kilbride Central 14161 East Kilbride South 22801 Strathaven 13296 Hamilton West 26853 Hamilton North 12077 Hamilton South 14336 Larkhall 14310 Lanark 26598 Lesmahagow 21200  Renfrewshire Gourock 16726 Greenock 18822 Port Glasgow 21408 Bridge of Weir 20609 Johnstone 21758 Paisley North West 24706 Renfrew 19565 Paisley East 12386 Paisley South 24025 Barrhead 12284 Newton Mearns 14132 Clarkston 20286 Giffnock 21004  Ayrshire Largs 23278 Kilwinning 22071 Ardrossan & Arran 12938 Saltcoats 14629 Irvine West 14293 Irvine East 14707 Kilmarnock West 19684 Kilmarnock East 20183 Loudoun 20625 Kyle 19775 Prestwick & Troon 23881 Ayr North 12215 Ayr South 23137 Cumnock 18608 Carrick 18119  Wigtownshire Wigtownshire 20820 Kirkcudbrightshire Kirkcudbrightshire 24076 Dumfriesshire Dumfries North & Nithsdale 28670 Dumfries South 20073 Annandale 19664 Roxburghshire Harwick 13328 Roxburghshire 22978 Selkirkshire Selkirkshire 17359 Peeblesshire Peeblesshire 15602 Berwickshire Berwickshire 16061  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 8, 2016 8:24:17 GMT
Like scotland pete?
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Sept 8, 2016 9:01:21 GMT
Yes of course, Andrew's site will have the last set of boundaries before the move to STV. I think a lot of these though were relatively new then so for elections in the 1990s and earlier there will be different boundaries again. I think these boundaries are available somewhere online as I remember working on some notional results for Scotland in the late 90s ( ntyuk1707 will probably be the best source for these). The old Alba Scottish elections was good for ward boundary maps in Glasgow and Edinburgh (in Glasgow they seemed to change every few years) but I think that site unfortunately disappeared a while ago. This is something that Kristofer Keane should try and sort out now he has more time on his hands I don't know where the idea of me having time comes from.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 8, 2016 9:09:38 GMT
Yes but you see the problem with unequal electorates. Did you get 200 seats? You should be able to do an outline map from one of the ward maps that has been posted on here and you can work out the results for the last two sets of elections. |
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