Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

PS. The Scilly Isles come under the Penwith division (originally I had this named as St Just & The Scilly Isles)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sept 6, 2016 10:05:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Here's a little welcome back present for AustralianSwingVoter

Wales 2012

			Change	seats	change
Lab	310158	35.3%	+8.6	78	+32
Ind	212519	24.2%	+0.1	36	-5
PC	143732	16.3%	-0.6	18	-2
Con	111648	12.7%	-3.0	13	-14
LD	70979	8.1%	-5.0	5	-9
Oth	30722	3.5%	+0.1		-2

A huge number of seats changing hands here - 41 of a total of 150

Lab Gain from Con

Barry North
Bridgend East
Caerleon
Caldicot
Dinas Powys
Llanwern
Mumbles
Newport West
Penarth
Prestatyn

Lab Gain from LD

Bridgend West
Cardiff Bay
Cardiff Splott
Mold
Newport North
Swansea Penderry
Wrexham East
Wrexham West

Lab Gain from Ind

Bedwas
Blackwood
Blaenavon
Broughton
Gower
Merthyr South
Swansea St Thomas
Treharris

Lab Gain from PC

Abercarn
Aberdare
Barry South
Cardiff Llandaff
Hengoed

Lab Gain from PV

Ebbw Vale

Ind Gain from Con

Cardiff Rhiwbina
Conwy
Llantrit Major

Ind Gain from LD

Brecon East

Ind Gain from PC

Aberaeron

PC Gain from Ind

Beaumaris
Dolgellau
Newcastle Emlyn

PC Gain from LG

Lleyn

Why 150 seats instead of 100, 150 has an average of 14,546
Meanwhile I have drawn up plans for 100 seats with an average of 21,818 and if you like I shall show you them

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Okay then, I have drawn Scottish constituencies for you, and 100 welsh constituencies

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 6, 2016 23:08:19 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Sept 6, 2016 10:05:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Why 150 seats instead of 100, 150 has an average of 14,546
Meanwhile I have drawn up plans for 100 seats with an average of 21,818 and if you like I shall show you them

You are right that on the usual allocation criteria I use Wales would have had 100 seats with an average electorate of around 22,000 but it so happens that when I played around with the figures I much preferred the look of an arrangement based on 150 seats which enabled whole seats to be awarded to areas like Prestatyn, Llandudno, Porthcawl, Holy Island, I allowed a similar over-representaion in Devon & Cornwall and for similar reasons.
There is also perhaps a bit of a relationship to the smaller size of Welsh parliamentary constituencies currently. Though my land seats don't fit into constituency boundaries (the original intention when I started doing this stuff 30 years ago is that they would) I typically have 3-4 land seats per parliamentary constituency and 100 seats here would only equate to 2.5 which doesn't give me the kind of level of detail I seek from this process.

Naturally I'd be interested in seeing what you've come up with for your 100 seat plan. Fwiw I think you're on a hiding to nothing with Scotland

[neilm]

What's the base year for this? 2009?

[Pete Whitehead]

What do you mean by the base year? The changes in seats and vote share indicated are from 2008 if that's what you mean

[neilm]

Sept 6, 2016 23:41:52 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What do you mean by the base year? The changes in seats and vote share indicated are from 2008 if that's what you mean

I thought you did them in four year council election periods so this one would have been 2009? I didn't think the Conservatives did quite so badly in Wales hence the question.

[Pete Whitehead]

The results I have shown are from 2012. The previous ones were in 2008. For most of my English regions the relevant years are 2011 and 2007 (and so on). 2012 was worse for the Conservatives and better for Labour than 2011 and 2008 was better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour than 2007, so the swing is greater. 2012 was pretty dire for the Tories in Wales

[Pete Whitehead]

Which land seat are you from Neil?

[neilm]

Sept 6, 2016 23:56:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Which land seat are you from Neil?

I need to work this out: in ward terms, from Wembury and Brixton which is Devon and Cornwall but now in Milton Keynes Woughton which is South East.

I was in Newport Pagnell and Woburn Sands before but unfortunately it's hard to live in either of those and save towards a house.

[neilm]

Sept 6, 2016 23:55:18 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The results I have shown are from 2012. The previous ones were in 2008. For most of my English regions the relevant years are 2011 and 2007 (and so on). 2012 was worse for the Conservatives and better for Labour than 2011 and 2008 was better for the Conservatives and worse for Labour than 2007, so the swing is greater. 2012 was pretty dire for the Tories in Wales

I genuinely thought that 2012 was OK for the Tories in Wales.

[johnloony]

Sept 6, 2016 10:09:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

PS. The Scilly Isles come under the Penwith division (originally I had this named as St Just & The Scilly Isles)

What has that got to do with Wales?

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 7, 2016 0:14:43 GMT neilm said:

Sept 6, 2016 23:56:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Which land seat are you from Neil?

I need to work this out: in ward terms, from Wembury and Brixton which is Devon and Cornwall but now in Milton Keynes Woughton which is South East.

I was in Newport Pagnell and Woburn Sands before but unfortunately it's hard to live in either of those and save towards a house.

I meant which Welsh seat - are you now completely expunging that from your background?

You're in the Milton Keynes Woughton seat now which is one of the safest Labour seats in Thames Chiltern. I thought you mentioned you lived in Wavendon now?

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 7, 2016 0:30:15 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 6, 2016 10:09:48 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

PS. The Scilly Isles come under the Penwith division (originally I had this named as St Just & The Scilly Isles)

What has that got to do with Wales?

It doesn't (although Cornwall used to be known as West Wales). ASV was asking about the Scilly Isles further up the thread, before his little enforced holiday

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sept 6, 2016 23:25:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 6, 2016 23:08:19 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Why 150 seats instead of 100, 150 has an average of 14,546
Meanwhile I have drawn up plans for 100 seats with an average of 21,818 and if you like I shall show you them

You are right that on the usual allocation criteria I use Wales would have had 100 seats with an average electorate of around 22,000 but it so happens that when I played around with the figures I much preferred the look of an arrangement based on 150 seats which enabled whole seats to be awarded to areas like Prestatyn, Llandudno, Porthcawl, Holy Island, I allowed a similar over-representaion in Devon & Cornwall and for similar reasons.
There is also perhaps a bit of a relationship to the smaller size of Welsh parliamentary constituencies currently. Though my land seats don't fit into constituency boundaries (the original intention when I started doing this stuff 30 years ago is that they would) I typically have 3-4 land seats per parliamentary constituency and 100 seats here would only equate to 2.5 which doesn't give me the kind of level of detail I seek from this process.

Naturally I'd be interested in seeing what you've come up with for your 100 seat plan. Fwiw I think you're on a hiding to nothing with Scotland

Well then,

WALES 100 SEATS

Important-
One of my favourite parts of this plan is that due to the number of valleys & rivers all seats outside of towns/cities with more than 2 seats (Deeside, Wrexham, Llanelli, Swansea, Neath, Bridgend, Barry, Cardiff, Newport)(and also towns named after rivers) get 2 names, a Geographical name and a Town name, and the choice is whether to have all town names or all Geographical names


Sir Fôn (Anglesey)
Cymyran OR Holyhead 23971
Menai 25316

Sir Meirionnydd (Merionethshire)
Snowdonia OR Meirionnydd 22424

Sir Gaernarfon (Caernarfonshire)
Llŷn OR Pwlhelli 20859
Padarn OR Arfon 20776
Llewelyn OR Bangor 19745
Conwy 18898
Creuddyn OR Llandudno 21803

Sir Ddinbych (Denbighshire)
Colwyn 17146
Elwy OR Towyn 19595
Upper Clwyd OR Denbigh 20775
Berwyn OR Corwen 24163
Wrexham South 24736
Wrexham West 21359
Wrexham Central 21654
Wrexham East 21523

Sir Fflint (Flintshire)
Lower Clwyd OR Rhyl 24176
Ffyddion OR Prestatyn 25044
Dee OR Flint 23308
Deeside West 22807
Deeside East 19779
Alltami OR Buckley 20291
Alyn OR Mold 22711




Sir Drefaldwyn (Montgomeryshire)

Vyrnwy OR Welshpool 22645
Hafren OR Montgomery 22611

Sir Faesyfed (Radnorshire)
Fforest Faesyfed OR Radnor 19832

Sir Frycheiniog (Brecknockshire)
Beacons OR Brecon 15994
Cambrians OR Builth 16447

Sir Aberteifi (Cardiganshire)
Aberystwyth OR Ystwyth 23741
Teifi OR Cardigan 26691

Sir Benfro (Pembrokeshire)
Preseli OR Fishguard 24960
Cleddau Ddu OR Haverfordwest 20825
Cleddau Wen OR Milford 19897
Daugleddau OR Pembroke 21380

Sir Gaerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire)
Lower Towy OR Carmarthen 22694
Gwendraeth OR Kidwelly 23704
Llanelli West 21162
Llanelli East 22230
Upper Loughor OR Ammanford 20986
Upper Towy OR Llandeilo 23111




Sir Morgannwg (Glamorganshire)
Gower 23636
Swansea Mumbles 23215
Swansea Castle 22606
Swansea Llansamlet 20125
Swansea Morriston 22433
Swansea Cwmdu 22608
Lower Loughor OR Gorseinon 20753
Tawe OR Clydach 22380
Dulais OR Glynneath 19290
Neath-Coedffranc 19864
Neath-Briton Ferry 20941
Neath-Port Talbot 23288
Afan-Llynfi OR Maesteg 23364
Ogwr-Gawr OR Sarn 21989
Bridgend East 21920
Bridgend West 19829
Kenfig OR Porthcawl 23302
Glamorgan OR Llantwit 24227
Lower Ely OR Llantrisant 23859
Barry West 18745
Barry East 20146
Cardiff Penarth 23988
Cardiff Butetown 20022
Cardiff Rhymney 24276
Cardiff Cyncoed 26653
Cardiff Pontprennau 20282
Cardiff Llanishen 22045
Cardiff Whitchurch 18395
Cardiff Cathays 20642
Cardiff Grangetown 20311
Cardiff Llandaff 24679
Cardiff St Fagans 22675
Cardiff Radyr 24757
Upper Ely OR Tonyrefail 20999
Rhondda Fawr OR Tonypandy 26546
Rhondda Fach OR Porth 18736
Lower Taff OR Pontypridd 21958
Lower Cynon OR Mountain Ash 20265
Upper Cynon OR Aberdare 21681
Mid Taff OR Merthyr Tydfil South 21890
Upper Taff OR Merthyr Tydfil North 17543
Upper Rhymney OR Rhymney 22507
Mid Rhymney OR Bargoed 17231
Lower Rhymney OR Ystrad Mynach 20609
Porset OR Caerphilly 24007





Sir Fynwy (Monmouthshire)
Newport Liswerry 21701
Newport Caerleon 21723
Newport Rogerstone 25728
Newport Duffryn 22220
Lower Ebbw OR Risca 23176
Sirhowy OR Tredegar 22775
Ebbw Fawr OR Ebbw 25710
Ebbw Fach OR Abertillery 21843
Upper Lwyd OR Pontypool 19528
Mid Lwyd OR Cwmbran North 20006
Lower Lwyd OR Cwmbran South 20194
Lower Usk OR Usk 18189
Upper Usk OR Abergavenny 22652
Wye OR Monmouth 21608
Severn OR Caldicot 21802

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Anyone want Scotland?

[johnloony]

Sept 7, 2016 2:46:14 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Anyone want Scotland?

I reckon Scotland would be fun if the map was based on constituencies of equal area rather than equal electorate.

[neilm]

Sept 7, 2016 0:32:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 7, 2016 0:14:43 GMT neilm said:

I need to work this out: in ward terms, from Wembury and Brixton which is Devon and Cornwall but now in Milton Keynes Woughton which is South East.

I was in Newport Pagnell and Woburn Sands before but unfortunately it's hard to live in either of those and save towards a house.

I meant which Welsh seat - are you now completely expunging that from your background?

You're in the Milton Keynes Woughton seat now which is one of the safest Labour seats in Thames Chiltern. I thought you mentioned you lived in Wavendon now?

Oh, one of the Bridgend ones. Possibly Cornelly actually, Wick is technically my home village.

I'm moving house. Literally here for a few weeks then back to Wavendon. I had considered going back to Woburn Sands but Wavendon (not Wavendon Gate) has more snob value. You can tell that Woughton is safe Labour!

[Pete Whitehead]

Wick in the Vale of Glamorgan?

[neilm]

Sept 7, 2016 7:34:29 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Wick in the Vale of Glamorgan?

Yes indeed. I'm afraid my geography of South Wales is vague! I identify more with Bridgend- where I was born and family live- than Cowbridge or the other bits of the Vale.