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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:19:05 GMT
What about Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland? I have created Lander seats for Wales. Scotland is more difficult because of the size of the wards and NI even more so though you pretty well end up with the EAs becoming FPTP seats. My thinking was that as all these areas already have devolved government with their own arrangements then my doing them would be superfluous, but I do intend to do it for Wales and have the seats all drawn up (but have not collated any results) could you please show me the seat map and maybe ask cibwr and Andrew Teale for help? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2016 8:20:25 GMT
I don't need any help  |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:38:50 GMT
I don't need any help Oh why with your Yorkshire and East Mercia Landtags do you have an average seat size in both of about 17,000 so why choose a larger amount of seats instead of reducing numbers by 50 with an average seat size of around 23,000? |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:39:54 GMT
I don't need any help So do you want me to delete my quote of your Lower Wessex 2015 results from the 2011 thread and let you post it? |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:44:16 GMT
Oh and how do you make these maps because I would like to see if I could combine all of them, year on year to create a UK wide map?
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:46:15 GMT
Yes. Salisbury and the surrounding area would fit nicely with it but the cluster of towns in West Wiltshire look far more to Bristol. Swindon if anything has closer links with Oxford and Reading. In fact Fawcett's regions reflected this. This is entirely the same as his Wessex region except that did include Salisbury and Wilton. Chippenham and Westbury were in his Bristol region while Cricklade (Swindon) and Devizes were in his rather unsatisfactory Central region, which extended as far to the NE as Peterborough Who is fawcett and can someone show me a map of his regions? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2016 8:46:25 GMT
I don't need any help Oh why with your Yorkshire and East Mercia Landtags do you have an average seat size in both of about 17,000 so why choose a larger amount of seats instead of reducing numbers by 50 with an average seat size of around 23,000? I don't think you are correct about the average seat size in Yorkshire - I have generally aimed for an average of around 20,000 but I have always gone for round numbers of seats (ie 100, 150, 200). IN some areas - and Yorkshire is a prime example of this - I am constrained by ward sizes. IN this particular case the only way to deal with the ward sizes in Leeds was to create large 2 member divisions comprising three wards each |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2016 8:47:30 GMT
I don't need any help So do you want me to delete my quote of your Lower Wessex 2015 results from the 2011 thread and let you post it? eh? |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:48:23 GMT
So moving now to the opposite end of the country and the very different environment of Devon & CornwallThis is the smallest region by population by some way, so only 75 seats here 2011 result | | | | Change | seats | change | | Con | 189955 | 35.5% | -2.9 | 41 | +2 | | LD | 108569 | 20.3% | -9.1 | 15 | -7 | | Ind | 82499 | 15.4% | +0.4 | 9 | -1 | | Lab | 78263 | 14.6% | +6.3 | 10 | +6 | | UKIP | 38828 | 7.3% | +3.7 | | | | Grn | 26733 | 5.0% | +2.6 | | | | Oth | 10456 | 2.0% | -0.9 | | |
 There was a bit of something for everyone here. Obviously the Conservatives had most to celebrate as having won a small majority for the first time ever in 2007 they managed to increase that, thanks to their now utter dominance of rural Devon. They did less well in Cornwall (the Cornish results for this cycle are of course from 2013 rather than 2011 but this probably isn't the main reason for the disparity of the results between the two counties, except for UKIP's strong performance in Cornwall). The LDs held up somewhat better than in most other regions, though this may not be saying much. Again there are big sub-regional differences. They did appallingly in Devon but held up well in Cornwall at least in terms of seats, winning nearly half of all seats (12 of 25) despite coming third in the popular vote with 22% (an only slightly lower share in Devon rewarded them with 3 of 50 seats). Labour realised most of their very limited potential in this region gaining most of what they would have hoped or expected to in Plymouth and Exeter and reappearing on the map of Cornwall after a fairly long absence. Minor parties also had some cause for encouragement. I most regions the latest set of elections have seen the continued decline of the Independents. Here they increased their vote share slightly, staying ahead of Labour and retained a decent share of seats, though they are still a much reduced force compared with a decade ago and more. UKIP doubled their vote share - helped by Cornwall voting in 2013 of course but also with some good results in Devon especially in Plymouth. They won no seats but came tantalisingly close in a number (Helston, CAmborne, Redruth, Launceston and Liskeard) This was also one of the better regions for the Green party who also doubled their vote share as even as they fell back in other regions. Their vote was relatively evenly spread however and they have few seats that offer them a prospect of future success (really only Totnes and to a much lesser extent St Ives) Con Gain from LD Camborne South Molton Okehampton Totnes Teignmouth Dawlish Con Gain from Ind Helston Kerrier Torrington Holsworthy Lab Gain from Con Plymouth Drake Plymouth Peverell Plymouth Southway Lab Gain from LD Exeter C Exeter W Lab Gain from Ind Redruth Ind Gain from Con Carrick St Austell Brixham Ind Gain from LD St Ives Truro St Stephen LD Gain from Con Newquay Looe LD Gain from Ind Padstow Wadebridge you have commited the fatal sin of FORGETTING THE ISLES OF SCILLY |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:49:07 GMT
So do you want me to delete my quote of your Lower Wessex 2015 results from the 2011 thread and let you post it? eh? look at the Landtag 2015 thread, oh and when is that thread going to be finished? |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:49:48 GMT
Oh why with your Yorkshire and East Mercia Landtags do you have an average seat size in both of about 17,000 so why choose a larger amount of seats instead of reducing numbers by 50 with an average seat size of around 23,000? I don't think you are correct about the average seat size in Yorkshire - I have generally aimed for an average of around 20,000 but I have always gone for round numbers of seats (ie 100, 150, 200). IN some areas - and Yorkshire is a prime example of this - I am constrained by ward sizes. IN this particular case the only way to deal with the ward sizes in Leeds was to create large 2 member divisions comprising three wards each no but why 200 instead of 150 (East Mercia) or 150 instead of 100 (Yorkshire) |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 8:59:17 GMT
So I could do some Scotland boundaries based on current wards (of which lots are helpfully around 20,000ish) if you could tell me how many seats?
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 9:01:00 GMT
So I could do some Scotland boundaries based on current wards (of which lots are helpfully around 20,000ish) if you could tell me how many seats? oh and whether to base them on old counties or districts (pre/post 1996) |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 9:02:00 GMT
So I could do some Scotland boundaries based on current wards (of which lots are helpfully around 20,000ish) if you could tell me how many seats? I'm guessing 200 seats with an average of 19,214 would be preferable? |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Aug 30, 2016 9:06:57 GMT
Quick question: Can this be moved to The Psephological Society section to be with the other Landtag Threads? It would make it easier to find.
Great work by the way, Pete.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2016 9:06:57 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2016 9:07:43 GMT
Just to clarify the above post was not directed at Mondialto (I hope this was obvious but you never know)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 30, 2016 9:08:32 GMT
Yes. Salisbury and the surrounding area would fit nicely with it but the cluster of towns in West Wiltshire look far more to Bristol. Swindon if anything has closer links with Oxford and Reading. In fact Fawcett's regions reflected this. This is entirely the same as his Wessex region except that did include Salisbury and Wilton. Chippenham and Westbury were in his Bristol region while Cricklade (Swindon) and Devizes were in his rather unsatisfactory Central region, which extended as far to the NE as Peterborough Who is fawcett and can someone show me a map of his regions? Charles Bungay Fawcett, who in 1919 wrote 'Provinces of England; a study of some geographical aspects of devolution'. The internet archive has a copy: archive.org/download/cu31924014118164/cu31924014118164.pdf |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 30, 2016 9:11:05 GMT
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Aug 30, 2016 9:13:12 GMT
Just to clarify the above post was not directed at Mondialto (I hope this was obvious but you never know) I know.  |
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