Landtag elections 2011

[neilm]

It is much appreciated

[Pete Whitehead]

Getting my Wessex's mixed up. It's actually Lower Wessex (Upper Wessex was the Hampshire/Dorset one) though I'm still not entirely happy with the names of these - perhaps Bristol region would be better? Anyway..

			Change	seats	change
Con	363098	39.2%	-3.7	60	-6
LD	223560	24.1%	-5.0	21	-2
Lab	187177	20.2%	+6.2	18	+8
Ind	66262	7.2%	+0.5		-1
Grn	49648	5.4%	+0.9
UKIP	29580	3.2%	+1.6	1	+1
Oth	6526	0.7%	-0.5

Lib Dems holding up relatively well here - it did not foretell their impending disaster in the general election. This saw their best vote share retention and the smallest net fall in seats. In fact they gained more seats from the Tories than they lost to them (principally in the Bath area). Labour made decent gains from the Tories in the Swindon and Stroud areas and from the Lib Dems in Bristol. Still a very solid Tory majority though.
Independents were wiped out for the first time while UKIP won their first Lander seat anywhere at Melksham


Lib Dem Gain from Con

Bath North
Bathavon
Bradford on Avon
Cheltenham East
Cirencester

Lab Gain from Con

Dursley
Stroud
Swindon Dorcan
Swindon Stratton

Lab Gain from Lib Dem

Bristol Filwood
Bristol St Pauls
Bristol Southmead
Salisbury

Con Gain from Lib Dem

Chard
Gloucester West
Trowbridge

Con Gain from Independent

Minehead & Exmoor

UKIP Gain from Con

Melksham

[Pete Whitehead]

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	362340	42.9%	+3.8	66	+8
LD	245463	29.1%	-2.8	23	-5
Lab	118477	14.0%	-3.2	10	-2
Ind	56712	6.7%	0.0	1	-1
Grn	37855	4.5%	+1.3
UKIP	13392	1.6%	+1.1
Oth	9864	1.2%	-0.1

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	300236	39.1%	+5.4	58	+19
LD	244896	31.9%	+0.5	28	-1
Lab	132095	17.2%	-7.6	12	-13
Ind	51465	6.7%	-0.6	2	-5
Grn	24327	3.2%	+1.0
UKIP	3649	0.5%	+0.5
Oth	10336	1.3%	0.6

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Con	239285	33.7%	+8.9	39	+29
LD	223114	31.4%	-0.4	29	-14
Lab	176079	24.8%	-7.6	25	-14
Ind	51809	7.3%	-2.1	7	-1
Grn	15589	2.2%	+0.9
Oth	4768	0.7%	+0.4

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	259276	32.4%	+7.5	39	+14
LD	254785	31.8%	+2.7	43	+12
Con	198417	24.8%	-8.3	10	-24
Ind	75118	9.4%	+0.3	8	-1
Grn	10129	1.3%	-1.6
Oth	2312	0.3%	-0.6		-1

[Pete Whitehead]

Finally can put this to bed and move on to the more recent (2015) results everywhere

	1991		seats
Con	300378	33.1%	34
LD	263755	29.1%	31
Lab	225996	24.9%	25
Ind	82544	9.1%	9
Grn	26637	2.9%
Oth	8149	0.9%	1

Perhaps the most proportional result I've ever seen on FPTP
The 'other' is a Liberal in Warminster who may or may not in fact have been a Liberal Democrat (in any case the Lib Dems did not contest any of the component wards)

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 28, 2015 11:51:21 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Perhaps the most proportional result I've ever seen on FPTP
The 'other' is a Liberal in Warminster who may or may not in fact have been a Liberal Democrat (in any case the Lib Dems did not contest any of the component wards)

The Liberals do have a small base in Warminster with Paul MacDonald on the Town Council.

[The Bishop]

Nov 28, 2015 11:51:21 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Finally can put this to bed

Well, almost - don't you usually do a summary at the end of these things?

[Pete Whitehead]

Lol I thought nobody would notice

[Tony Otim]

Dec 1, 2015 13:55:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Lol I thought nobody would notice

On this site??

[Pete Whitehead]

As I observed on another thread, this has by no means been put to bed yet anyway as I may now take it back all the way to 1973

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 1, 2015 13:49:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 28, 2015 11:51:21 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Finally can put this to bed

Well, almost - don't you usually do a summary at the end of these things?

Did you mean this one?

Gloucestershire	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Berkeley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bishops Cleeve	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Cheltenham East	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	LD
Cheltenham North	LD	LD	Con	Ind	LD	LD
Cheltenham South	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cheltenham West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Chipping Campden	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Chipping Sodbury	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Churchdown	Con	LD	Lab	Con	LD	LD
Cirencester	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	Con	LD
Dean	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dursley	LD	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Filton	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Gloucester East	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Con	Con
Gloucester North	Con	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Con
Gloucester South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Gloucester West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Con
Hanham	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Kingswood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Lydney	Lab	Lab	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Mangotsfield	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Nailsworth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Newent	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Northleach	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Patchway	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Stroud	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Tetbury	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tewkesbury	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Thornbury	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Warmley	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Yate	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Bristol
Avonmouth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Bedminster	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bishopston	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Brislington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Clifton	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Eastville	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Filwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Hartcliffe	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Southmead	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
St George	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
St Pauls	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Westbury	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Somerset
Axbridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Banwell	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bath East	Con	LD	LD	Con	LD	LD
Bath North	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD
Bath West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Bathavon	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	LD
Bridgwater	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Burnham on Sea	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chard	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Clevedon	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Clutton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Coker	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Creech	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Crewkerne	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Frome	LD	Lab	LD	Con	LD	LD
Glastonbury	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Keynsham	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Long Ashton	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Mendip	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Minehead & Exmoor	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Ind	Con
Norton Radstock	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Portishead	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Quantock Vale	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sedgemoor	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Somerton	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Taunton North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Taunton South	LD	LD	Con	Con	LD	LD
Wellington	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wells	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Weston East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Weston North	Ind	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Weston West	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Wincanton	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Yeovil	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Wiltshire
Bradford-on-Avon	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD
Calne	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chippenham	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Corsham	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Cricklade & Royal Wooton Bassett	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Devizes	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Highworth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Malmesbury	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Marlborough	Con	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Melksham	LD	LD	Lab	LD	Con	UKIP
Old Sarum	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Salisbury	LD	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Lab
Swindon Dorcan	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Swindon Freshbrook	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Swindon Haydon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Swindon Lawns	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con
Swindon Rodbourne	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Swindon Stratton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Tidworth	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Trowbridge	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Warminster	Lib	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Westbury	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wilton	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jan 27, 2014 10:19:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	401429	58.9%	+11.9	89	+20
LD	119142	17.5%	-3.2	7	-5
Con	92804	13.6%	-8.1	2	-13
Ind	57430	8.4%	+0.0	2	-2
Oth	10194	1.5%	-0.7

now I wonder what Major would think of that!?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What about Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Could a moderator move this thread to The Psephological Society where the other Landtag threads are

[AustralianSwingVoter]

For Scotland and Wales I could do some boundaries for you if you could tell me the number of seats and what base them on (Historical Counties/Current Districts/Old Districts & Counties(Grampian/Strathclyde/Dyfed/Clwyd counties))

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 30, 2016 1:42:39 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

What about Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?

I have created Lander seats for Wales. Scotland is more difficult because of the size of the wards and NI even more so though you pretty well end up with the EAs becoming FPTP seats. My thinking was that as all these areas already have devolved government with their own arrangements then my doing them would be superfluous, but I do intend to do it for Wales and have the seats all drawn up (but have not collated any results)

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 30, 2016 2:06:03 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Could a moderator move this thread to The Psephological Society where the other Landtag threads are

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