Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	691513	48.9%	+11.9	144	+54
Con	359362	25.4%	-12.6	26	-54
LD	238760	16.9%	+0.8	19	+5
Ind	94151	6.7%	+2.2	10	-2
Grn	12118	0.9%	-0.7
Oth	17792	1.3%	-1.5	1	-3

The 'other' here is a Ratepayer in Shirley

[Richard Allen]

I was a little shocked to see Labour carrying your Solihull North in 1995 but I had forgotten just how well Labour used to poll in Elmdon compared to how dismally they do now. That being said, while they did carry it on the then boundaries of Elmdon and Lyndon it is quite possible that they would have failed to do so on the current boundaries.

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes I see that Elmdon gained a quite substantial area from Silhill in Elmdon Heath which I assume is what you're rerferring to. I doubt this would have made the difference as Labour carried Solihull North by a margin of almost 500 over the Lib Dems (and over 1,000 over the third placed Tories). In Silhill ward in 1995 the Lib Dems lead Labour by just over 500 so it would have required almost all of that lead to have come from the Elmdon Heath area for that to have tipped the seat into their column

[Richard Allen]

Apr 7, 2015 11:02:03 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Yes I see that Elmdon gained a quite substantial area from Silhill in Elmdon Heath which I assume is what you're rerferring to. I doubt this would have made the difference as Labour carried Solihull North by a margin of almost 500 over the Lib Dems (and over 1,000 over the third placed Tories). In Silhill ward in 1995 the Lib Dems lead Labour by just over 500 so it would have required almost all of that lead to have come from the Elmdon Heath area for that to have tipped the seat into their column

Elmdon also gained a small but far from insignificant part of Bickenhill ward. The Boundary Committee report neglected to mention this in the summary of each ward but it is mentioned in the detailed report and is clearly visible when you compare the old map with the new map. This area is particularly bad for Labour so while they might have won it on these boundaries I am not convinced that they would have.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oh yes - the area to the East of Damson Lane would have come from Bickenhill and the area to the West from Silhill. Do you know roughly how many voters are in this area ?

[Richard Allen]

Apr 7, 2015 14:46:45 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oh yes - the area to the East of Damson Lane would have come from Bickenhill and the area to the West from Silhill. Do you know roughly how many voters are in this area ?

I don't know and I wouldn't really like to guess but probably at least 1,000. There are lots of detached houses which does reduce the density but also lots of little cul de sacs that wind through multiple bends and have far more houses than you would think from the top of the road. It is a very nice area that presumably would see above average turnout and very few Labour votes. Natural Tory territory but probably savvy enough to vote tactically for the Lib Dems to keep out Labour if the circumstances required it.

As I say it is certainly possible that Labour would have still won your North Solihull in 1995 on the current boundaries, as always there is element of guess work and assumptions to these things. My attention was only drawn to this as I had forgotten how well Labour used to poll in Elmdon given that they are now completely dead in the ward.

[Richard Allen]

Following up from my previous post, when I said "at least 1,000" I was only referring to old Bickenhill part. Having given this further thought and considering the total electorate of the ward I would say the parts gained from both Silhill and Bickenhill would include at least 3,000 voters with at least half having come from Bickenhill.

[iain]

I'm going to predict an update ...

[Pete Whitehead]

You were right...

The 1991 election result for West Mercia

			seats
Con	631700	38.0%	80
Lab	615376	37.0%	90
LD	267288	16.1%	14
Ind	74377	4.5%	12
Grn	25763	1.6%
Oth	46581	2.8%	3

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't know incidentally why all the percentages here have suddenly converted into hyperlinks. Can I humbly suggest that the moderators and administrators here stop Fuc king around with the codes as it's tedious enough that an increasing number of words get automatically translated into something other than what the author intended to say

[iain]

Who are the others?

[maxque]

Should be 2 Ratepayers in Staffordshire Moorlands and "Independent Ratepayers" in Shirley.

[iain]

And what's the orange in Sandwell?

[Pete Whitehead]

Actually I've spotted an error as ther eshould be 4 others. Great Barr was won by the Liberals although they weren't opposed by the Lib Dems so not sure if it was a reporting error

[Pete Whitehead]

A couple of loose ends to be tied up here before I can do the final region

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
West Midlands
Acocks Green	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Aston	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Bartley Green	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Billesley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Bordesley Green	Lab	Lab	PJP	PJP	Lab	Lab
Bournville	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Brandwood	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Castle Vale	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Edgbaston	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Erdington	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Hall Green	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Handsworth Wood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Harborne	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Hodge Hill	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Kings Norton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Kingstanding	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ladywood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Longbridge	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Lozells	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Moseley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	LD	Lab
Nechells	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Northfield	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Oscott	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Perry Barr	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
Quinton	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Selly Oak	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Shard End	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sheldon	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Soho	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sparkbrook	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Resp	Lab
Springfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Stechford	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Stockland Green	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sutton Four Oaks	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sutton New Hall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sutton Trinity	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sutton Vesey	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Washwood Heath	Lab	Lab	PJP	LD	Lab	Lab
Weoley	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Yardley	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Coventry Cheylesmore	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Coventry Earlsdon	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Coventry Foleshill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Coventry Henley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Coventry Keresley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Coventry Sherbourne	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Coventry St Michaels	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Coventry Tile HIll	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Coventry Wyken	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab
Brierly Hill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Coseley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dudley North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Dudley South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Halesowen East	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Halesowen West	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Kingswinford	Con	Lab	LD	LD	Con	Con
Pensnett	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Quarry Bank	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Sedgley	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stourbridge East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stourbridge West	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con
Cradley Heath	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Great Barr	Lib	LD	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Oldbury	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rowley Regis	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Smethwick North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Smethwick South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Tipton	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Warley	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wednesbury	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
West Bromwich East	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
West Bromwich North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
West Bromwich West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Castle Bromwich	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Chelmsley Wood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Knowle	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Meriden	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Shirley	Rate	Rate	Con	Con	LD	Con
Solihull East	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Solihull North	Con	Lab	Con	LD	LD	LD
Solihull West	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Aldridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bloxwich	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Brownhills	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Darlaston	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Pelsall	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Short Heath	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Walsall Central	Con	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Walsall East	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Walsall North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Willenhall	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bilston East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bilston West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wolverhampton Blakenhall	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wolverhampton Bushbury	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Wolverhampton Eastfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wolverhampton Fallings Park	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wolverhampton Penn	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wolverhampton St Peters	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wolverhampton Tettenhall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wolverhampton Wednesfield	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Warwickshire
Alcester	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Arden	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Atherstone	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Bedworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Coleshill	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Earls Craven	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kenilworth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leamington North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Leamington South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Nuneaton East	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Nuneaton North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Nuneaton South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rugby North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Rugby South	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Shipston	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Southam	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stratford on Avon	LD	LD	Ind	LD	Con	Con
Warwick	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Worcestershire
Alvechurch	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bewdley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bromsgrove North	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bromsgrove South	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Droitwich	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Evesham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Inkberrow	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Kidderminster East	LD	LD	Ind	Lib	Lib	Con
Kidderminster West	Lab	Lab	Ind	IKHHC	Con	Con
Lovett	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Malvern	Con	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Pershore	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Powick	Con	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con
Redditch East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Redditch North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Redditch South	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stourport	Con	Lab	Ind	IKHHC	Con	Con
Worcester East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Worcester North	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Worcester South	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Worcester West	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Herefordshire
Hereford North	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	IOC
Hereford South	LD	LD	LD	LD	Ind	Ind
Kington	Ind	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	Con
Ledbury	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leominster	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ross on Wye	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Shropshire
Atcham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bishop's Castle	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Bridgnorth	Con	Con	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Dawley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Donington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Ironbridge	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ludlow	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD	Con	Con
Market Drayton	Ind	Ind	Con	Ind	Con	Con
Newport	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Oakengates	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Oswestry	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Shrewsbury North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Shrewsbury South	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Wellington	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Wenlock	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Whitchurch	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Staffordshire
Biddulph	Ind	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Con
Burntwood	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con
Burton East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Burton West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Cannock	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Cheadle	Rate	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Codsall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Eccleshall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Gnosall	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Great Wyrley	Con	Lab	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Hednesford	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Keele	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Kidsgrove	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Leek	Rate	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Lichfield	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Needwood	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Newcastle North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Newcastle South	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con
Penkridge	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Rugeley	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
Stafford North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Stafford South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Stoke Abbey	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Stoke Burslem	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stoke Fenton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stoke Hanley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Stoke Longton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stoke Meir Park	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Stoke Norton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Stoke Trentham	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
StokeTunstall	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab	Ind
Stone	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tamworth East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Tamworth South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Tamworth West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Uttoxeter	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whittington	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wombourne	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Grn	UKIP	BNP	Oth	seats	Con	Lab	LD	Ind	Oth
1991	38.0%	37.0%	16.1%	4.5%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%		80	90	14	12	4
1995	25.4%	48.9%	16.9%	6.7%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%		26	144	19	10	1
1999	33.3%	36.2%	18.6%	9.0%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	1.7%		56	106	21	15	2
2003	36.4%	28.7%	20.9%	7.9%	1.0%	0.5%	1.2%	2.4%		83	75	29	9	4
2007	38.4%	25.6%	16.7%	6.2%	2.9%	2.3%	5.0%	3.1%		114	57	20	7	2
2011	37.6%	36.0%	10.9%	5.4%	3.3%	2.8%	1.0%	2.9%		90	99	7	3	1

[neilm]

Can you give us the 2015 result for Thames Chiltern when you have time please?

[The Bishop]

That's one for the "2015 Landtag elections" thread in the psephology section

[neilm]

Aah I misread what you wrote so have deleted my post today 10th August.

[Pete Whitehead]

I have actually worked out some of the results for that region (no prizes for guessing which part) but I need to finish off this thread before I carry on with that one I think. Just need a few spare moments to post up the series of results for Upper Wessex. I can't wait to get into doing all the 2015 results