Landtag elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	136603	30.6%	-0.6	21	-7
LD	135749	30.4%	+2.3	27	+12
Ind	86365	19.3%	-1.4	19	-3
Lab	56386	12.6%	-4.5	8	-2
UKIP	8682	1.9%	+1.9
Grn	6058	1.4%	+0.9
Oth	16956	3.8%	+1.4

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Con	132007	31.2%	+11.7	28	+22
LD	119035	28.1%	-3.0	15	-21
Ind	87708	20.7%	+2.4	22	+8
Lab	72466	17.1%	-10.4	10	-9
Oth	12413	2.9%	-0.7

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
LD	151017	31.1%	+4.8	36	+13
Lab	133685	27.5%	+7.7	19	+10
Con	94724	19.5%	-9.5	6	-16
Ind	89153	18.3%	-0.5	14	-7
Oth	17592	3.6%	-2.5

[manchesterman]

How come I have never chanced upon this thread before?!

A real tour de force!

Standing ovation, Mr Whitehead!

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Con	164493	29.0%	22
LD	149619	26.3%	23
Lab	112328	19.8%	9
Ind	106686	18.8%	21
Grn	12915	2.3%
Oth	21791	3.8%

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Cornwall
Bodmin	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	LD	LD
Bude-Stratton	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	LD
Camborne	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Con
Carrick	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Ind
Falmouth	LD	Lab	LD	LD	Ind	Ind
Fowey	LD	LD	Ind	LD	LD	LD
Helston	LD	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	Con
Kerrier	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Launceston	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	LD	LD
Liskeard	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Looe	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	LD
Newquay	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	LD
Padstow	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD
Penryn	LD	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	Ind
Penwith	Con	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Penzance	Con	Lab	Con	LD	LD	LD
Redruth	LD	LD	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Saltash	Ind	LD	LD	Ind	LD	LD
St Agnes	LD	Ind	LD	LD	LD	LD
St Austell	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Ind
St Ives	Con	LD	Ind	LD	LD	Ind
St Stephen	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Ind
Torpoint & St Germans	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Truro	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Ind
Wadebridge	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD
Devon
Ashburton	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Axminster	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Barnstaple	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Bickleigh	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bideford & Northam	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Bovey	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Braunton	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Brixham	Con	Lab	Con	LD	Con	Con
Budleigh	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Crediton	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Cullompton	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind
Dartmouth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Dawlish	Con	LD	Con	LD	LD	Con
Exeter Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Exeter East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Exeter North	Con	LD	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Exeter South	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Exeter West	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Exmouth	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Holsworthy	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Honiton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ilfracombe	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Ivybridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kingsbridge	Con	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Kingsteignton	Ind	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Newton Abbot	Ind	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Okehampton	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	LD	Con
Ottery St Mary	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Paignton East	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Paignton West	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Plymouth Devonport	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab
Plymouth Drake	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Plymouth Eggbuckland	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Plymouth Moor View	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Plymouth Peverell	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Con	Lab
Plymouth Southway	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Plymouth St Budeaux	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Plymouth Sutton	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab
Plympton	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Plymstock	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sidmouth	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
South Molton	Ind	Ind	Ind	LD	LD	Con
Tavistock	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Teignmouth	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	LD	Con
Tiverton	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Torquay North	LD	LD	Con	LD	LD	LD
Torquay South	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Torquay West	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Torrington	Ind	LD	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Totnes	Ind	LD	Con	LD	LD	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

West Mercia 2011

			Change	seats	change
Con	600907	37.6%	-0.8	90	-24
Lab	575870	36.0%	+10.4	99	+42
LD	173481	10.9%	-5.8	7	-13
Ind	86350	5.4%	-0.8	3	-4
Grn	52706	3.3%	+0.4
UKIP	44977	2.8%	+0.5
BNP	16222	1.0%	-4.0
Oth	47124	2.9%	+0.2	1	-1

A wrong winner result here with the Tories narrowly carrying the popular vote but Labour making sweeping gains leaving them only one short of half the total (they would have had 100 if they had not contrived to lose a seat to an Independent - in Stoke of course!).  There is somewhat of a built in bias in favour of Labour in this region with over half the seats being in the conurbation but less than half the electorate and Birmingham is particularly over-represented, this being where the bulk of Labour gains came from.  They did also do well though (in contrast with some of the other regions) in many of the smaller towns in the region (Stafford, Bromsgrove, Shrewsbury etc) so that the Tory losses here were far too heavy to be counterbalanced by the typical pattern of Tory gains from Independents and LDs in the more rural areas




Lab Gain from Con

Atherstone
Birmingham Billesley
Birmingham Brandwood
Birmingham Harborne
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Birmingham Kings Noton
Birmingham Longbridge
Birmingham Quinton
Bloxwich
Brierley Hill
Bromsgrove South
Burton West
Coventry Keresley
Coventry Sherbourne
Coventry Tile HIll
Dawley
Donnington
Hednesford
Newcastle under Lyme North
Nuneaton North
Pensnett
Redditch North
Shrewsbury North
Stafford North
Stoke on Trent, Meir Park
Walsall Central
Wednesbury
Wellington
Wolverhampton Bushbury
Wolverhampton Wednesfield
Worcester East

Lab Gain from LD

Birmingham Selly Oak
Birmingham Moseley
Birmingham Springfield
Birmingham Hall Green
Birmingham Acocks Green
Birmingham Yardley
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Great Barr
Kidsgrove

Lab Gain from Ind

Stoke on Trent Norton
Stoke on Trent Hanley
Stoke on Trent Abbey


Lab Gain from Respect

Birmingham Sparkbrook

Con Gain from LD

Shirley
Solihull West
Biddulph

Con Gain from Ind

Kington
Whitchurch

Con Gain from Liberal

Kidderminster East

IOC Gain from LD

Hereford North

Ind Gain from Lab

Stoke on Trent Tunstall

[Pete Whitehead]

Birmingham divisions are the same as the wards and named the same except where labelled differently

[greenchristian]

I see that we were foiled by the boundaries, coming second in both the Chelmsley Wood and Castle Bromwich seats.

[Pete Whitehead]

You did not in fact come second in Castle Bromwich

[greenchristian]

Apr 24, 2014 18:35:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

You did not in fact come second in Castle Bromwich

Oops. Right you are. I clearly had the 2012 figures in my head. We weren't that far off in 2011, though.

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	564799	38.4%	+2.0	114	+31
Lab	376394	25.6%	-3.1	57	-18
LD	245387	16.7%	-4.2	20	-9
Ind	91838	6.2%	-1.7	7	-2
BNP	72878	5.0%	+3.8
Grn	42116	2.9%	+1.9
UKIP	33600	2.3%	+1.8
Oth	45159	3.1%	+0.7	2	-2

[greenchristian]

Jun 29, 2014 20:13:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	564799	38.4%	+2.0	114	+31
Lab	376394	25.6%	-3.1	57	-18
LD	245387	16.7%	-4.2	20	-9
Ind	91838	6.2%	-1.7	7	-2
BNP	72878	5.0%	+3.8
Grn	42116	2.9%	+1.9
UKIP	33600	2.3%	+1.8
Oth	45159	3.1%	+0.7	2	-2

Is the green seat RESPECT and the light orange Kidderminster Health Concern?

[Pete Whitehead]

I should have specified those, though the Respect one is obvious enough. Orange in Kidderminster East is Liberal

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Con	473344	36.4%	+3.1	83	+27
Lab	373026	28.7%	-7.5	75	-31
LD	272036	20.9%	+2.3	29	+8
Ind	102554	7.9%	-1.1	9	-6
BNP	15771	1.2%	+1.1
Grn	13177	1.0%	-0.1
UKIP	6686	0.5%	+0.5
Oth	42385	2.4%	+0.8	4	+2

Others are Independent Kidderminster Hospital & Health concern in Stourport on Severn and Kidderminster West, Liberal in Kidderminster East and People's Justice (Kashmir) Party in Birmingham Bordesley

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Lab	469220	36.2%	-12.7	106	-38
Con	431330	33.3%	+7.9	56	+30
LD	241300	18.6%	+1.7	21	+2
Ind	116667	9.0%	+2.3	15	+5
Grn	14592	1.1%	+0.2
Oth	21909	1.7%	+0.4	2	+1

Others are the two Kashmiris in Bordesley and Washwood Heath.  

[Richard Allen]

I assume that you are using Bordesley as short hand for Bordesley Green and that you haven't actually named a seat after an area in a neighbouring seat.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 24, 2014 10:03:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Birmingham divisions are the same as the wards and named the same except where labelled differently

[

[iain]

Just thought I'd bump this.

You going to do Gloucestershire?

[Pete Whitehead]

Actually can you delete the poll altogether . There's no need to do another as there is only one region left when I've finished the West Midlands. Do try not to delete the whole thread