Landtag elections 2011

[The Bishop]

Forgotten 1991, Pete?

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes and no. Its done but i've not got round to posting. I have been kind of busy wih one thing and another, but will get it posted when I'm next at the relevant computer

[cibwr]

These are a masterwork Peter... I appreciate the effort you put in to these.

[Pete Whitehead]

Belatedly, 1991

			seats
Con	323081	39.0%	51
LD	270127	32.6%	33
Lab	142855	17.2%	12
Ind	76498	9.2%	4
Grn	9637	1.2%
Oth	6296	0.8%

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Hampshire
Portsmouth Portsdown	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Portsmouth Horsea	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Portsmouth Guildhall	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Portsmouth Southsea	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Portsmouth Milton	Con	Lab	Con	LD	Con	LD
Portsmouth Kingston	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Portsmouth North End	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Portchester	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Fareham	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Gosport E	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Gosport W	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Lee on Solent	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Titchfield	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sarisbury	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hayling Island	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Havant	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Leigh Park	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Langstone	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Waterlooville	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Horndean	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Petersfield	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Liphook	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Alton	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Aldershot	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Farnborough S	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Farnborough N	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Yateley	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Fleet	Con	Ind	Con	Con	Con	Con
Church Crookham	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Hook	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tadley	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Basingstoke E	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD
Basingstoke N	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Basingstoke S	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Basing	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Whitchurch	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Andover	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stockbridge	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Romsey	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
North Baddesley	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Winchester	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Kings Worthy	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
New Alresford	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bishops Waltham	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Chandler's Ford	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Eastleigh	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Bishopstoke	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Hedge End	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Netley	Con	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Southampton Woolston	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Southampton Sholing	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Southampton Harefield	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Southampton Bargate	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Southampton Portswood	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Southampton Bassett	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Southampton Redbridge	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Southampton Freemantle	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Con	Con
Totton	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con
Hythe	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Fawley	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	Con
Lymington	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Lyndhurst	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Milton	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Ringwood	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Fordingbridge	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Isle of Wight
Newport	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Cowes	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Ryde	Con	LD	LD	Con	Con	Ind
Sandown	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Isle Of Wight West	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Isle Of Wight East	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Dorset
HIghcliffe	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Christchurch	Con	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Bournemouth Southborne	LD	Con	Con	LD	Con	Con
Bournemouth Boscmbe	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Bournemouth West Cliff	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bournemouth Queens Park	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con	Con
Bournemouth Winton	LD	LD	Ind	LD	Con	Con
Bournemouth Kinson	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Con
Ferndown	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Wimborne	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Verwood	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Poole Parkstone	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Poole Branksome	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Poole Newtown	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Poole Hamworthy	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con	Ind
Poole Broadstone	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con
Corfe Mullen	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Blandford	Ind	LD	Con	Con	LD	Con
Shaftesbury	LD	Ind	Con	LD	Con	Con
Sherborne	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Swanage	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bovington	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con	Con
Dorchester	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Portland	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Con	Lab
Weymouth South	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Weymouth North	Con	LD	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Beaminster	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Cerne Valley	Ind	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Bridport	Con	Lab	LD	Con	Con	Con

[Pete Whitehead]

Northumbria 2011*

			Change	seats	change
Lab	353357	48.2%	+11.8	79	+21
Con	153532	20.9%	-0.5	14	-2
LD	100912	13.8%	-9.6	4	-14
Ind	84175	11.5%	-0.9	3	-5
UKIP	18683	2.5%	+1.9
Oth	22550	3.1%	-2.8

* The seats in the areas covered by Durham and Northumberland CC/UAs of course voted in 2013 rather than 2011.

A particularly spectacular wipeout for the LDs in this region, perhaps not too surprising given that most of their seats were in areas where the main opponent was Labour. Even so their performance north of the Tyne in particular was appalling, winning only one seat. They won fewer seats in the entire region than they had previously won in the city of Newcastle alone.
The Tories held up relatively well both in terms of vote share (largely due to a good increase in Northumberland, though their vote was generally steady elsewhere) and in seats, suffering a net loss of only two with predictable losses in urban areas to Labour being largely offset by gains from LDs and Independents (Northumberland again mainly)

Lab gain from LD

Bedlington
Belmont
Bishop Auckland
Morpeth
Newcastle, Heaton
Newcastle, Jesmond
Newcastle, Kenton
Newcastle, Newburn
Newcastle, Woolsington
Ryton
Seaton Valley
Wallsend

Lab Gain from Con

Middlesbrough, Acklam
Saltburn & Marske
Sunderland, Hendon
Sunderland, Roker
Sunderland, Silksworth

Lab Gain from Ind

Consett
Hartlepool South
Newton Aycliffe
Weardale

Con Gain from LD

Alnwick
Berwick upon Tweed

Con Gain from Ind

Barnard Castle

[Pete Whitehead]

[Pete Whitehead]

Interesting/useless fact: The Berwick upon Tweed and Barnard Castle divisions both have identical boundaries to the former districts of Berwick and Teesdale respectively. I did briefly consider naming the latter Teesdale, partly in recognition of this and partly because of the kind of symmetry(?) of having a seat so named adjoining Weardale which in turn adjoins Tynedale, but of course Barnard Castle was far too good a name not to use

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

All back in synch now and actually more so than any other region (barring London) as every ward was up for election with the sole exception of Hartlepool, Elswick

			Change	seats	change
Lab	262409	36.3%	-7.4	58	-8
LD	169395	23.4%	+/-0.0	18	+6
Con	155080	21.4%	+2.2	16	-
Ind	89186	12.3%	+2.9	8	+2
BNP	23546	3.3%	+0.7
Oth	23384	3.2%	+1.6

[Pete Whitehead]

2003

			Change	seats	change
Lab	356208	43.7%	-4.0	66	-7
LD	190574	23.4%	-0.1	12	+1
Con	156730	19.2%	+0.6	16	+5
Ind	76741	9.4%	+0.1	6	+1
BNP	20848	2.6%	+2.6
Oth	13093	1.6%	+0.7

[Pete Whitehead]

1999

			Change	seats	change
Lab	258737	47.7%	-11.2	73	-16
LD	127588	23.5%	+6.0	11	+4
Con	101117	18.6%	+5.0	11	+9
Ind	50256	9.3%	+0.9	5	+3
Oth	4792	0.9%	-0.6

[Pete Whitehead]

1995

			Change	seats	change
Lab	401429	58.9%	+11.9	89	+20
LD	119142	17.5%	-3.2	7	-5
Con	92804	13.6%	-8.1	2	-13
Ind	57430	8.4%	+0.0	2	-2
Oth	10194	1.5%	-0.7

[Pete Whitehead]

That seat includes Prudhoe and Haltwhistle. The Allendale ward itself returned a Conservative and Independent councillor unopposed in 1995 and other wards in that area (eg Slaley, South Tynedale) also returned Tories unopposed. Even had all wards been contested though Labour would still have won this division because of their very large lead in Prudhoe

[Pete Whitehead]

1991

			seats
Lab	380109	47.0%	69
Con	175959	21.7%	15
LD	167142	20.7%	12
Ind	68317	8.4%	4
Oth	17720	2.2%

[Pete Whitehead]

	1991	1995	1999	2003	2007	2011
Cleveland
Saltburn & Marske	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Loftus	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Guisborough	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Redcar	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	LD
Grangetown	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ormesby	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Acklam	Con	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Lab
Newham	Con	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Marton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Thorntree	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Riverside	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Thornaby	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Ind
Yarm	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Ind	Ind
Stockton Rural	Con	LD	Con	Con	Con	Con
Billingham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stockton West	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Stockton North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Stockton East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hartlepool South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Hartlepool North	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab	Lab
Hartlepool West	Con	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Durham
Darlington Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Darlington North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Darlington East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Darlington South	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con	Con
Sedgefield	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Newton Aycliffe	Ind	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Ferryhill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Trimdon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Peterlee	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Easington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Seaham	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Durham City	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Belmont	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Spennymoor	LD	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab
Shildon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bishop Auckland	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Barnard Castle	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con
Crook & Willington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Brandon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Weardale	Ind	Lab	Lab	Ind	Ind	Lab
Consett	Ind	Lab	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab
Annfield Plain	Lab	Lab	Ind	Lab	Ind	Ind
Stanley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Pelton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Chester-le-Street	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Tyne & Wear
Blaydon	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Ryton	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Whickham	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Birtley	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Gateshead West	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Gateshead North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Gateshead South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Gateshead East	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hebburn	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Jarrow	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Boldon	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
South Shields North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
South Shields Central	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
South Shields South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Roker	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Southwick	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hylton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Pallion	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hendon	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Lab
Sandhill	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Silksworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Lab
Ryhope	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Washington North	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Washington South	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Houghton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Hetton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Woolsington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Newburn	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Benwell	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Westgate	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Jesmond	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	Lab
Gosforth	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD	LD
Kenton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Heaton	Lab	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Byker	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Killingworth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Longbenton	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Wallsend	LD	Lab	LD	LD	LD	Lab
Whitley Bay	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tynemouth	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
North Shields	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Collingwood	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Northumberland
Berwick	LD	LD	LD	Con	LD	Con
Alnwick	LD	LD	Ind	Ind	LD	Con
Ponteland	LD	LD	LD	Con	Con	Con
Rothbury	Con	Ind	Ind	Ind	Con	Con
Hexham	Con	Lab	Con	Con	Con	Con
Tynedale	Lab	Lab	Lab	Con	Con	Con
Morpeth	LD	Lab	Ind	Ind	LD	Lab
Ashington	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab
Bedlington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab
Cramlington	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Blyth	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab	Lab
Seaton Valley	LD	Lab	Lab	Lab	LD	Lab

[Pete Whitehead]

So moving now to the opposite end of the country and the very different environment of Devon & Cornwall
This is the smallest region by population by some way, so only 75 seats here

2011 result

			Change	seats	change
Con	189955	35.5%	-2.9	41	+2
LD	108569	20.3%	-9.1	15	-7
Ind	82499	15.4%	+0.4	9	-1
Lab	78263	14.6%	+6.3	10	+6
UKIP	38828	7.3%	+3.7
Grn	26733	5.0%	+2.6
Oth	10456	2.0%	-0.9

There was a bit of something for everyone here. Obviously the Conservatives had most to celebrate as having won a small majority for the first time ever in 2007 they managed to increase that, thanks to their now utter dominance of rural Devon. They did less well in Cornwall (the Cornish results for this cycle are of course from 2013 rather than 2011 but this probably isn't the main reason for the disparity of the results between the two counties, except for UKIP's strong performance in Cornwall).
The LDs held up somewhat better than in most other regions, though this may not be saying much. Again there are big sub-regional differences. They did appallingly in Devon but held up well in Cornwall at least in terms of seats, winning nearly half of all seats (12 of 25) despite coming third in the popular vote with 22% (an only slightly lower share in Devon rewarded them with 3 of 50 seats).
Labour realised most of their very limited potential in this region gaining most of what they would have hoped or expected to in Plymouth and Exeter and reappearing on the map of Cornwall after a fairly long absence.

Minor parties also had some cause for encouragement. I most regions the latest set of elections have seen the continued decline of the Independents. Here they increased their vote share slightly, staying ahead of Labour and retained a decent share of seats, though they are still a much reduced force compared with a decade ago and more.
UKIP doubled their vote share - helped by Cornwall voting in 2013 of course but also with some good results in Devon especially in Plymouth. They won no seats but came tantalisingly close in a number (Helston, CAmborne, Redruth, Launceston and Liskeard)
This was also one of the better regions for the Green party who also doubled their vote share as even as they fell back in other regions. Their vote was relatively evenly spread however and they have few seats that offer them a prospect of future success (really only Totnes and to a much lesser extent St Ives)

Con Gain from LD

Camborne
South Molton
Okehampton
Totnes
Teignmouth
Dawlish

Con Gain from Ind

Helston
Kerrier
Torrington
Holsworthy


Lab Gain from Con

Plymouth Drake
Plymouth Peverell
Plymouth Southway

Lab Gain from LD

Exeter C
Exeter W

Lab Gain from Ind

Redruth

Ind Gain from Con

Carrick
St Austell
Brixham

Ind Gain from LD

St Ives
Truro
St Stephen


LD Gain from Con

Newquay
Looe

LD Gain from Ind

Padstow
Wadebridge

[Pete Whitehead]

[Pete Whitehead]

2007

			Change	seats	change
Con	193398	38.4%	+7.8	39	+18
LD	148243	29.4%	-1.0	22	-5
Ind	75550	15.0%	-4.3	10	-9
Lab	41817	8.3%	-4.3	4	-4
UKIP	18270	3.6%	+1.7
Grn	11868	2.4%	+1.0
Oth	14559	2.9%	-0.9

[coitoergosum]

Jul 31, 2012 18:09:44 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 31, 2012 17:49:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Shows how dreadful the Barrow results were for us that year - I remember it well

Indeed - I don't remember it at all (not one of the boroughs i follow the most closely as you can imagine) which is one of the reasons this exercise is useful for me - it has reminded me of quite a few other results which i would otherwise forget. The 1991 results in Barrow were strikingly bad for Labour/good for the Tories which makes the big swing in 1992 all the more surprising. It does seem to be a very contrary place

Jul 31, 2012 17:49:21 GMT The Bishop said:

Where is that very lonely bit of blue in the 1995 map - Tottington area?

No Tottington is in Bury West which went Labour that year. This is Bolton Heaton where the Conservatives were probably saved by the absence of a Labour candidate in Deane-cum-Heaton ward

No, Wrong. The Ward of Tottington didn't gain a Labour councillor until 2012 - a mere 39 years after Bury MBC was formed. Your facts are incorrect. Happy to help.

[Pete Whitehead]

Righto. No idea what your observation re: Tottington has to do with the price of fish, but thanks anyway for reminding me that this thread wants updating..