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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Oct 21, 2016 5:05:37 GMT
Luckily I switched over to Sky just in time for the declaration. Yet again the stupid arrogant BBC wasn't even showing it. I got up at 5 to see if the results had been declared and switched on the BBC. They had a banner headline running along the bottom saying "Tories hold Cameron's Witney seat in by-election" or something like that, which came after about five other headlines. That was it. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 21, 2016 7:31:11 GMT
Any guesses what the result would have been had the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens done what they should have done and fielded candidates? Probably a narrow Labour win. Some tory votes would have gone lib dem and labour might have lost some to ukip. Lib Dems would not have done much the same day as Witney but have enough strength in Cleckheaton to put their vote up a few %. Really the ukip performance would have been the big uncertainty |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2016 9:58:23 GMT
Labour could actually have increased their majority a bit (in % terms at least) The other "main" parties may still not have campaigned as vigorously as they normally would given the circumstances, and the winning candidate might have had a better opportunity to demonstrate their strengths.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2016 12:15:58 GMT
Hopefully several lost deposits for the shower of arseholes who've rocked up for this. I don't agree....the incumbent was killed. Bad as that may be it is not right that someone gets a free ride to replace her just because of sentiment. The people have a right to a choice. What would I do if I lived there. Vote Labour for some TV person? I must point out that I wanted the main parties to stand. If I'd have been in this seat, I'd likely have spoiled my ballot paper. |
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Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 21, 2016 12:19:03 GMT
Seem to have been about 174 spoiled ballots - slightly higher than normal but not wholly exceptional.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 21, 2016 13:04:27 GMT
I think the reality was that it wasn't really like a by election at all. It was Labour plus a bunch of fringe candidates. Noone expected anything other than a Labour win and few wanted to support the fringe candidates
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Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 21, 2016 13:07:38 GMT
Indeed. The byelection was turned into a foregone conclusion, which led to the dire turnout.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 14:23:58 GMT
Seem to have been about 174 spoiled ballots - slightly higher than normal but not wholly exceptional. There were 171 spoilt papers (we know because the R.O. declared the numbers): 153 uncertain, 17 voting for more than 1, and 1 identifiable. That makes a discrepancy of 3 between the verified total and the counted total. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 21, 2016 16:12:42 GMT
If we're being honest then, given the circumstances, it is actually quite likely that mainstream parties fielding candidates would have led to a bit of a local backlash against them. Which is why they didn't.
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 21, 2016 16:29:41 GMT
If we're being honest then, given the circumstances, it is actually quite likely that mainstream parties fielding candidates would have led to a bit of a local backlash against them. Which is why they didn't. Why do you think that? It didn't, for example, in Eastbourne. |
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Post by David Boothroyd on Oct 21, 2016 16:36:40 GMT
I don't think there would have been a backlash, so long as their campaign had been restrained (from what I saw, the Labour one was) and not indulged in personal insults.
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 21, 2016 16:47:06 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 21, 2016 16:52:49 GMT
If we're being honest then, given the circumstances, it is actually quite likely that mainstream parties fielding candidates would have led to a bit of a local backlash against them. Which is why they didn't. Why do you think that? It didn't, for example, in Eastbourne. This one - from the beginning - "felt different" from Eastbourne to me, and I still can't quite think why. Was it because one was by an organisation, the other - it appears - by an individual? Was it because one was striking against the government, the other against an individual constituency MP? Was it - dare one suggest - that one victim was a male, older and from the right, the other a younger female from the left? I honestly don't know. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2016 17:33:30 GMT
My view is that the murder took away the electorate's right to select their representative, and therefore they should have had full chance to select the successor. Whilst I get why the main parties took that approach, I disagree with it.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2016 17:36:43 GMT
If we're being honest then, given the circumstances, it is actually quite likely that mainstream parties fielding candidates would have led to a bit of a local backlash against them. Which is why they didn't. Why would it? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2016 17:49:45 GMT
It would depend very much on how the campaign went, tbh.
Though I always felt the speed with which the Tories announced they would not stand (more or less forcing others to follow suit) smacked a bit of a publicity stunt.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2016 17:54:32 GMT
It would depend very much on how the campaign went, tbh. Though I always felt the speed with which the Tories announced they would not stand (more or less forcing others to follow suit) smacked a bit of a publicity stunt. It was typically a Cameron emotive value statement by a rather duff politician. Thank goodness that man has gone. Knowing how I felt about him I can hardly imagine how it must be in Labour at present. |
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AJS
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Post by AJS on Oct 21, 2016 18:17:44 GMT
I think perhaps the statistics produced by this by-election should be regarded somewhat in the same way that cricket test matches involving "Rest of the World" teams are regarded by most cricket statisticians.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2016 9:34:38 GMT
Why? I see no more reason why it shouldn't "count" for the records than all the wartime byelections with limited competition. Or even Haltemprice/Howden a few years ago.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 22, 2016 11:10:26 GMT
tbh the thing I don't understand is why it took so long to hold this by-election.. Well, I suppose it had everything to do with Labour being totally preoccupied with internecine strife, but if I had been a Batley and Spen voter (as I nearly am, I was at a farm shop in the constituency 10 minutes drive away this morning), I would have been much more unimpressed by that than by the failure of the other parties to fight it...
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