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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2016 1:24:06 GMT
Everyone loses their deposit except Brabin. Bundle check must have been at the instigation of Hirst who got 4.8%. First time this has happened in any parliamentary election (general or by) since 1979 in England, where only the winning Labour candidate saved his deposit in Liverpool Scotland Exchange. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 21, 2016 1:26:05 GMT
Everyone loses their deposit except Brabin. Bundle check must have been at the instigation of Hirst who got 4.8%. First time this has happened in any parliamentary election (general or by) since 1979 in England, where only the winning Labour candidate saved his deposit in Liverpool Scotland Exchange. And that was in the 12.5% era. I assume we have to go back to the wartime by-elections to find anything comparable? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 21, 2016 1:28:47 GMT
First time this has happened in any parliamentary election (general or by) since 1979 in England, where only the winning Labour candidate saved his deposit in Liverpool Scotland Exchange. And that was in the 12.5% era. I assume we have to go back to the wartime by-elections to find anything comparable? Several of the Northern Ireland by-elections in 1986 had only the winner saving their deposit though only in Antrim North would that have happened on the 5% threhold en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_by-elections,_1986 |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2016 1:29:20 GMT
We do, timrollpickering , in terms of contests with three or more candidates (back to 1940, in fact)-but the Newham South by-election of 1974 came very close to achieving that feat, since the Liberals only saved their deposit by 0.01%. The Kensington South by-election of 1968 recorded only 12.6% for the second placed Liberals, so that was also pretty close. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 1:30:46 GMT
The Labour share of the vote went up by 42.6%, which is the biggest increase in the share of the vote for a main party in a by-election since... er...
Liberal Party, Bermondsey, 1983 ?
Some of the Northern Ireland Unionists, 1986 ?
Some of the WW2 by-elections ?
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 21, 2016 1:38:40 GMT
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±
| | Labour | Tracy Brabin | 17,506 | 85.8 | +42.6 | | English Democrats | Therese Hirst | 969 | 2.8 | N/A | | BNP | David Furness | 548 | 2.7 | N/A | | Independent | Garry Kitchin | 517 | 2.5 | N/A | | English Independence | Corbyn Anti | 241 | 1.2 | N/A | | Liberty GB | Jack Buckby | 220 | 1.1 | N/A | | Independent | Henry Mayhew | 153 | 0.8 | N/A | | Independent | Waqas Ali Khan | 118 | 0.6 | N/A | | National Front | Richard Edmonds | 87 | 0.4 | N/A | | One Love Party | Ankit Love | 34 | 0.2 | N/A |
| Majority | 16,537 | 81.0 |
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| Turnout | 20,393 | 25.8 |
| | Labour Hold |
| Swing | N/A |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 21, 2016 1:42:48 GMT
The Labour share of the vote went up by 42.6%, which is the biggest increase in the share of the vote for a main party in a by-election since... er... Liberal Party, Bermondsey, 1983 ? Some of the Northern Ireland Unionists, 1986 ? Some of the WW2 by-elections ? Largest increase for any party since Bradford West 2012, Respect up 52.8, Largest increase for Labour or Conservative EVER Largest increase for Lab, Con or Lib since Bermondsey 1983, Liberal up 50.9 |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 21, 2016 1:47:40 GMT
btw prior to this by election the largest increase in vote % for the 2 main parties were
Labour, 31.8 in Fulham East 1933
Conservative, 25.0 in Liverpool Wavertree 1931
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 1:50:33 GMT
btw prior to this by election the largest increase in vote % for the 2 main parties were Labour, 31.8 in Fulham East 1933 Conservative, 25.0 in Liverpool Wavertree 1931 Wow! I was expecting to get an answer eventually from someone like David Boothroyd or Andy AJS, so I am impressed that you knew the answer so quickly. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 21, 2016 1:51:50 GMT
btw prior to this by election the largest increase in vote % for the 2 main parties were Labour, 31.8 in Fulham East 1933 Conservative, 25.0 in Liverpool Wavertree 1931 Wow! I was expecting to get an answer eventually from someone like David Boothroyd or Andy AJS, so I am impressed that you knew the answer so quickly. United Kingdom by-election records - Wikipedia |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 2:03:27 GMT
One always gave to be cautious about Wikipedia because they sometimes get things wrong or miss out details.
Anyway, in the 15 by-elections in Northern Ireland in 1986, there were 5 in which the winning party's share of the vote went up by more than today's 42.6%:
Londonderry East UUP +56.0%
Antrim South UUP +48.4%
Antrim East UUP +47.5%
Strangford UUP +45.4%
Antrim North DUP +43.2%
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 21, 2016 2:11:53 GMT
One always gave to be cautious about Wikipedia because they sometimes get things wrong or miss out details. Anyway, in the 15 by-elections in Northern Ireland in 1986, there were 5 in which the winning party's share of the vote went up by more than today's 42.6%: Londonderry East UUP +56.0% Antrim South UUP +48.4% Antrim East UUP +47.5% Strangford UUP +45.4% Antrim North DUP +43.2% It says that, it's just that I didn't post it |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 2:18:23 GMT
I have found another one:
Dunbartonshire, 26th February 1941
A.S. McKinlay (Labour) 21,900 (85.0%) +43.1
M. MacEwan (Communist) 3,862 (15.0%)
but that is only if you compare the 85.0% in 1941 with the 41.9% which Labour got in the general election in 1935, and ignore the 48.1% which Labour got in another by-election in 1936.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 21, 2016 2:22:59 GMT
Clackmannan & Stirlingshire East, 13th October 1939: Labour up 51.6% from 42.1 to 93.7
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 21, 2016 4:53:28 GMT
Any guesses what the result would have been had the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens done what they should have done and fielded candidates?
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 21, 2016 5:05:37 GMT
Luckily I switched over to Sky just in time for the declaration. Yet again the stupid arrogant BBC wasn't even showing it. I got up at 5 to see if the results had been declared and switched on the BBC. They had a banner headline running along the bottom saying "Tories hold Cameron's Witney seat in by-election" or something like that, which came after about five other headlines. That was it. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 21, 2016 7:31:11 GMT
Any guesses what the result would have been had the Conservatives, UKIP, Lib Dems and Greens done what they should have done and fielded candidates? Probably a narrow Labour win. Some tory votes would have gone lib dem and labour might have lost some to ukip. Lib Dems would not have done much the same day as Witney but have enough strength in Cleckheaton to put their vote up a few %. Really the ukip performance would have been the big uncertainty |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2016 9:58:23 GMT
Labour could actually have increased their majority a bit (in % terms at least) The other "main" parties may still not have campaigned as vigorously as they normally would given the circumstances, and the winning candidate might have had a better opportunity to demonstrate their strengths.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2016 12:15:58 GMT
Hopefully several lost deposits for the shower of arseholes who've rocked up for this. I don't agree....the incumbent was killed. Bad as that may be it is not right that someone gets a free ride to replace her just because of sentiment. The people have a right to a choice. What would I do if I lived there. Vote Labour for some TV person? I must point out that I wanted the main parties to stand. If I'd have been in this seat, I'd likely have spoiled my ballot paper. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 21, 2016 12:19:03 GMT
Seem to have been about 174 spoiled ballots - slightly higher than normal but not wholly exceptional.
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