By-Elections - 19th July 2012

[greatkingrat]

BRECKLAND - Queen's (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con x3 unopposed
2009 by - Con 863, Ind 672, Lab 231
2007 - Con 820/816/743, Ind 568
2003 - Con 768/753/663, Lab 295/262, Grn 278

Karen PETTITT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
John WILLIAMS (The Labour Party Candidate)

CALDERDALE - Warley (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2012 - Lab 1259, LD 1146, Con 658
2011 - LD 1334, Lab 1181, Con 783, BNP 253
2010 - LD 1905, Lab 1437, Con 1349, BNP 550, Ind 156
2008 - LD 1681, Con 708, BNP 433, Lab 422
2007 - LD 1319, Con 418, Ind 360, BNP 335, Lab 236, Ind 145, ED 51 (postponed poll)
2006 - Con 935, LD 855, Ind 636, BNP 496, Lab 353, Ind 33

James BAKER (Liberal Democrats)
Charles GATE (Green Party)
Christopher PEARSON (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Jonathan TIMBERS (Labour Party Candidate)

NEW FOREST - Milford (Conservative seat)

2011 - Con 1802/1678, Lab 492
2007 - Con 1512/1435, LD 400
2003 - Con 1073/1033, LD 616/570

Sophie BEETON (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Caroline HEXTER (The Labour Party Candidate)

[The Bishop]

According to a post somewhere else on here, New Forest candidates are just Con and Lab.

[hullenedge]

A report (of sorts) from this week's Courier:-



I'm surprised that all the candidates are 'outsiders'. This will be difficult to call. Lots of Tory votes to squeeze for the LibDems but unclear how the Green candidate will perform. (http://www.copleyvalley.co.uk/) CMBC pressed ahead with the development.

James Baker's website - jd-baker.com/
Jonathan Timber's - www.calderdalelabour.org/warley/2012/06/

[David Ashforth]

Ward maps

BRECKLAND - Queen's

CALDERDALE – Warley

NEW FOREST – Milford

[Deleted]

The Warley ward is interesting been a big shift in voting patters, why have the tories gone down so much. have already put in my prediction so an answer won;t change that

[hullenedge]

Have to be careful what I write...Warley was redrawn in 2004. It lost Kingston and gained Pellon. Probably a slightly better bet for Labour. Historically Warley, Kingston & Pellon all had a Lib presence. (My relative was one of the last Lib cllrs for Pellon on the Halifax CB). The Tories expected to win all three seats in 2004 and all three sitting cllrs for the 'old ward' were defending. There was much ill feeling locally about the development of Wellesley Park Barracks for a new secondary school. The Tory cllrs/candidates fell upon the wrong side of public opinion and lost. Grandma, true blue, voted Independent and Allen Clegg (ex Lib Dem and parliamentary candidate) plus Jenny Carr both won along with Jennifer Pearson (LD). David Ginley was rather lucky to win in 2006. An internet search may reveal more about his record. LibDems worked the ward...Jennifer Pearson is/was extremely well liked and respected across the spectrum. The Tories put up a failed candidate in 2007, which went down very badly. Given the persona of the sitting Tory cllr their vote inevitably began a downward trend. Labour were definitely under-polling in their bad years but there was always the potential for a decent Lab vote in the Pellon area. Does this help?

I can't make a prediction for Thursday other than Lab or LibDem, which is isn't v.helpful. Sorry.

[Pete Whitehead]

Is Jennifer Pearson related to Christopher Peaarson in any way?

[markgoodair]

Jul 18, 2012 7:11:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Is Jennifer Pearson related to Christopher Peaarson in any way?

Jennifer is the widow of Stephen Pearson who stood for the Liberal Democrats in Normanton in the 2001 General Election.

[hullenedge]

Thanks Mark. Spot on. He died far too young.

[Deleted]

thanks hullenedge for the very detailed information

[johnloony]

Parish council by-election for St Ives (East)

Richard Allen (Lab)
Ryan Fuller (Con)
Toby Jug (OMRLP)
Margaret King (UKIP)
Richard Oliver (LD)
Peter Smith (Ind)

www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/HDCCMS/Documents/Elections/St%20Ives%20Notice%20of%20Poll.pdf

[erlend]

I will put a tuppence in on Warley. I try not to hype too often and when I do my performance is mixed so I await with interest the result.

I think that from hearsay the Lib Dems have run a significant campaign and got a serious amount of outside help (not something we have been enormously good at in many places since May 2010!). This help being whence my gossip.

I think the Tory vote may be well squeezed and that the Liberal Democrat majority may be reasonable (5%+).

So if I had been putting a prediction in the competition today I would have gone LD 46, Lab 40, Con 9, Green 5

Now to see how badly out that is.

[The Bishop]

A scurrilous rumour doing the rounds is that many of their leaflets don't even have "Liberal Democrat" on them.......

[Crimson King]

The three different ones I helped deliver did I'm pretty sure (and I still have some left overs in the car boot to check if you doubt me. They were all pretty standard and identifiably lib-dem Focus style

[hullenedge]

God help us if Warley flooded because at least half of the borough would be under water! The weather isn't too bad today.

Given that all the candidates are 'outsiders' I'm surprised that this group www.dbol.org.uk/ didn't enter the race. There's another mass petition arranged for Saturday.

I'd like to offer guidance for the forecasters but our local paper, Halifax Courier, is now weekly so minimal coverage.

Another tight LibDem/Lab beckons in Calder ward later this year. Wouldn't like to predict that either.

[john07]

Jul 19, 2012 11:56:44 GMT The Bishop said:

A scurrilous rumour doing the rounds is that many of their leaflets don't even have "Liberal Democrat" on them.......

That is nothing new. I can recall the Bredbury Labour Party running a District Council election campaign under the slogan Jack Howarth: the Local Man. The posters were in Labour colours but the party name was not prominent. It turned out to be reasonably successful in the context of the results elsewhere.

Anyone who saw 2012 this week may recall the advertizing campaign for Womens' Football. "Right people love football, they love women, but they hate women's football". The campaign was based on not mentioning womens football in any of the promotions.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 19, 2012 13:05:01 GMT john07 said:

... advertizing ...

Even if you use -ize for words, 'advertise' is always spelled with an 's' because it does not come from the same stem.

[greatkingrat]

As BritainVotes won't be running a liveblog tonight I'm going to try and run an alternative. I can't guarantee how well it will actually work in practice, but if you come along to blyve.com/event/544208502effa275ec000000 after 10pm then we can give it a try at least.

[Pete Whitehead]

Good man

[leicester]

2 Town council elections in Kettering tonight 19th July

Rothwell TC
Lib Dem /Lab/ Con

Desborough TC
Lib Dem/ Lab/ Con/ Bnp/ EDP