Italian Local Elections

[andrea]

Apr 22, 2024 17:41:54 GMT Georg Ebner said:

First surprise: Azione (Calenda) is - apparently incl. IV (Renzi) - part of CDX, what is a new step in their shift to the right.
Second surprise: Azione stands presently at 9%, CDX at 56%; so in theory...

The candidate selection for PD and M5S was a big mess in Basilicata. At one point they changed 100 candidates in a week. During one of the many changeovers, Azione and Renzi jumped on the other side.
Azione is polling strongly because they have Marcello Pittella (former president of Basilicata region. For PD at that time) in their council lists.

[andrea]

Final result from Basilicata
Bardi (incumbent, FDI+Lega+FI+Azione+Renzi) 56.63%
Marrese (PD+M5S+Left) 42.16%
Follia (Volt) 1.21%

Composition of regional council

Brothers of Italy/FDI 17.39% - 4 seats (+3 seats compared to 2019 election)
Forward Italy/Forza Italia 13.01% - 3 seats (+2)
Lega 7.81% - 2 seats (-4)
Azione with Calenda 7.51% - 2 seats
Orgoglio Lucano /Lucan Pride 7.03% - 1 seat
Christian Democrat Union 2.54% - 0 seats
The True Basilicata 2.23% - 0 seats

Total for Bardi: 12 seats

Democratic Party /PD 13.87% - 2 seats
Basilicata Casa Comune /Basilicata Common Home 11.18% - 2 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle/5 Stars Movement 7.66% - 2 seats
Green Left + PSI 5.79% - 1 seat
United Basilicata 2.86% - 0 seats

Total for opposition: 8 (7 list seats + the losing presidential candidate)

In Matera area it was a tie. In Potenza a massive win for Bardi.

2019 result was
Bardi 42.2%
PD and allies candidate 33.11%
M5S 20.27%
Far Left 4.37%

Very good result for government. Bad result for opposition (the agreement between PD and M5S wasn't smooth, they ended up agreeing on a candidate on 17th March 2024, barely one month before the election).

[andrea]

Weekend's local elections

Regional elections in Piemonte
Centre-right incumbent 56.13%
PD and allies 33.54%
5 Stars 7.68%

Municipalities

Centre-right: Campobasso (gain from 5 Stars), Pescara, Ferrara, Biella, Ascoli, Forlì

Centre-left: Cagliari (gain), Bergamo, Modena, Reggio Emilia, Livorno, Prato, Pesaro, Cesena, Pavia (gain), Sassari (gain)

Run offs: Firenze (PD leading 43 to 33%), Bari (PD 48% CR 29%. 5 Stars candidate got 21%), Perugia (extremely tight: 49 to 48%), Potenza (CR 40% CL 32%), Caltanissetta, Vibo Valentia, Avellino, Cremona, Urbino, Verbania, Rovigo (CR 49% vs 5 Stars 28%), Lecce (maybe, CR is at 49.6% with 4 polling stations missing).

In all the gains so far, the incumbent mayor wasn't running again.

[andrea]

Results of mayoral run offs starting to come in

Bari: looks like an easy hold for PD. One third counted and they are at 70%
Florence: idem. Half way the count and PD candidate is at 60%
Rovigo: early stages but centre-right hold win seems secure (59% at the moment.
Cremona: very tight. 56 polling stations out of 76 reported and it is 50.2 to 49.2%

In the other main cities, too few reportings to get a path so far.

[andrea]

Cremona:
PD and allies 50.23 Centre-right 49.77%
2 polling stations left. Both were won by PD in round 1 (when PD was 1 point behind at city-wide level)

Potenza: centre-left way ahead (over 60%) after one third counted. And they are ahead in polling stations that they lost in round 1 (when they were 8 points behind centre-right candidate)

Vercelli: centre-right hold. 55-45% split so far.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 24, 2024 14:02:35 GMT andrea said:

Cremona:
PD and allies 50.23 Centre-right 49.77%
2 polling stations left. Both were won by PD in round 1 (when PD was 1 point behind at city-wide level)

Potenza: centre-left way ahead (over 60%) after one third counted. And they are ahead in polling stations that they lost in round 1 (when they were 8 points behind centre-right candidate)

Vercelli: centre-right hold. 55-45% split so far.

At interno.it i see 41% CDX : 32% CSX?

[Georg Ebner]

In round I CDX had already losses, this time, too, it seems.

[andrea]

Jun 24, 2024 14:10:27 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jun 24, 2024 14:02:35 GMT andrea said:

Cremona:
PD and allies 50.23 Centre-right 49.77%
2 polling stations left. Both were won by PD in round 1 (when PD was 1 point behind at city-wide level)

Potenza: centre-left way ahead (over 60%) after one third counted. And they are ahead in polling stations that they lost in round 1 (when they were 8 points behind centre-right candidate)

Vercelli: centre-right hold. 55-45% split so far.

At interno.it i see 41% CDX : 32% CSX?

41-32% was the round 1.

64.98% for CSX to 35.02% in the run off with only 1 polling station left to be added


Cremona confirmed as CL hold by 0.4%.

Perugia looks like a Left gain.
133 out of 159 reported
PD 53, CR 47%

Lecce
44 / 102 reported
the eternal Poli Bortone (CR) sits at 51.65%. She was in Berlusconi's first government

Campobasso
46 / 56 reported
PD-M5S 51.62% (they were 15 points behind in R1)


Avellino
Local list wins with 52% to 48% for centre-left. The winner is an ally for the outgoing mayor (who was expelled from PD and is now under home-arrest)

[andrea]

Centre-left wins in Campobasso: 50,97% (for M5S-PD coalition) to 49.03%
R1 was CR 47.9% CL 32.16%
Incumbent was M5S

Lecce: 50.59% to 49.41% with 89 polling stations reported out of 102. Looks like CR gain.

Vibo Valentia switching from CR to CL

[Georg Ebner]

Of the 29 provincial capitals

- M5S will have lost both (1 to CSX & CDX resp.)

- CDX will have gained 3: Caltanissetta (exM5S), Lecce, Rovigo

- CSX will have lost 3: the 2 mentioned & Verbania (to a CivicList); and gained 7: Cagliari, Pavia, Sassari (from a CivicList), Campobasso (exM5S), Perugai, Potenza, ViboValentia

If we take the 224 most populous cities/towns CSX has gained 11, CDX just 2, M5S +-0, altri -13.

So summa summarum CSX has improved compared to CDX, but not dramatically.

[Georg Ebner]

Most cities were up 2019, when the outCome was in the ~230 biggest this:

And now:

[Georg Ebner]

The 225 municipalities with over 15.000 inHabitants:




Sums: 2014->2019->2024:

CS&S: 154->103->111
CD&D: 38->81->82
CivicL.: 30->44->28

[Georg Ebner]

Regional election in Ligury - were is our andrea?

PollingStations closed half an hour ago and no numbers to see so far.
Per se mildly to the left of Italy (just as neighbouring Piedmont is slightly to the right), i saw en passant opinionPolls with both neck2neck. Many upset, that the CDXer left the mayorality of Genova to run. Yet, the CSXer seems to have performed awfully during the campaign.

[Georg Ebner]

2 exitPolls found and both have the mayor in front, but by merely 1-1.5%.

[andrea]

1489 polling stations out of 1785 reported

Bucci (centre-right) 48.4%
Orlando (centre-left 47.7%
Morra (United for the Constitution) 0.9%
Rollando (Power to the People, Communist Refoundation) 0.9%
Toscano (Popular Sovereign Democracy) 0.8%
Ferrando (Communist Party) 0.4%
Cella (People's Party of Northern Autonomy and Freedom) 0.3%
Felice (Strength of the people) 0.3%
Rosson (Right) 0.3%

Turnout 45.97%

At the moment
Bucci ahead in Savona (49% to 46%) and Imperia (60 to 35%)
Orlando ahead in Genova (49% to 47%) and La Spezia (50 to 46%)

[andrea]

1728 polling stations reported

Bucci (centre-right) 48.8%
Orlando (centre-left 47.3%
Morra (United for the Constitution) 0.9%
Rollando (Power to the People, Communist Refoundation) 0.9%
Toscano (Popular Sovereign Democracy) 0.8%
Ferrando (Communist Party) 0.3%
Cella (People's Party of Northern Autonomy and Freedom) 0.3%
Felice (Strength of the people) 0.3%
Rosson (Right) 0.3%


Lists for regional council

Fratelli d'Italia/Brothers of Italy 15%
Bucci President 9.4%
Lega 8.5%
Forza Italia/Forward Italy 8%
Orgoglio Liguria/Proud Liguria 5%
Bucci Libertas 1.3%
Popular Alternative for Bucci 0.3%

PD 28.5%
Green Left 6.2%
Orlando President 5.3%
M5Stars 4.6%
Azione (Calenda)+PRI+various centrist outfits 1.8%
Some other pro-Orland local list 1.6%

By provinces

Spezia: Orlando 50.4% Bucci 46%
Genova: Orlando 49.2% Bucci 47%
Savona: Bucci 49.5% Orlando 46.3%
Imperia: Bucci 60.1% Orlando 35.9%

Polling stations left

15 in La Spezia province
29 in Genova province
8 in Savona
6 in Imperia

[andrea]

Final results

Bucci 48.77%
Orlando 47.3%

By provinces

Spezia: Orlando 50.31% Bucci 46.14%
Genova: Orlando 49.13% Bucci 47.06%
Savona: Bucci 49.41% Orlando 46.38%
Imperia: Bucci 60.1% Orlando 35.88%


Lists for regional council

Fratelli d'Italia/Brothers of Italy 15.8% (5 seats)
Bucci President 9.46% (3 seats)
Lega 8.47% (3 seats)
Forza Italia/Forward Italy 7.97% (3 seats)
Orgoglio Liguria/Proud Liguria 5.7% (3 seats)
Bucci Libertas 1.3% (no seats)
Popular Alternative for Bucci 0.34% (no seats)

PD 28.47% (8 seats)
Green Left 6.17% (2 seats)
Orlando President 5.3% (1 seat)
M5Stars 4.56% (1 seat)
Azione (Calenda)+PRI+various centrist outfits 1.74% (no seats)
Some other pro-Orland local list 1.62% (no seats)

[rcronald]

Oct 29, 2024 19:17:22 GMT andrea said:

Final results

Bucci 48.77%
Orlando 47.3%

By provinces

Spezia: Orlando 50.31% Bucci 46.14%
Genova: Orlando 49.13% Bucci 47.06%
Savona: Bucci 49.41% Orlando 46.38%
Imperia: Bucci 60.1% Orlando 35.88%


Lists for regional council

Fratelli d'Italia/Brothers of Italy 15.8% (5 seats)
Bucci President 9.46% (3 seats)
Lega 8.47% (3 seats)
Forza Italia/Forward Italy 7.97% (3 seats)
Orgoglio Liguria/Proud Liguria 5.7% (3 seats)
Bucci Libertas 1.3% (no seats)
Popular Alternative for Bucci 0.34% (no seats)

PD 28.47% (8 seats)
Green Left 6.17% (2 seats)
Orlando President 5.3% (1 seat)
M5Stars 4.56% (1 seat)
Azione (Calenda)+PRI+various centrist outfits 1.74% (no seats)
Some other pro-Orland local list 1.62% (no seats)

Quality candidate for the rescue of the right in a region where their reputation got badly hurt by corruption.

[Georg Ebner]

ExitPoll has Umbria as a pure tossUp.

[dizz]

Nov 18, 2024 14:03:31 GMT Georg Ebner said:

ExitPoll has Umbria as a pure tossUp.

And Emilia Romagna as a centre left hold.