Scottish Parliament election 2016 maps and spreadsheet

[minionofmidas]

That's only the constituency vote, right.

[minionofmidas]

Feared so - and as it happens, in Scotland that's really the more interesting document.

[Georg Ebner]

Lost my patience with the ElectoralCommission and took the ChangePercentages from BBC (ConstituencyVotes):

[Georg Ebner]

And coloured:

[Georg Ebner]

Most of You will have them, but I didn't find them, thus I tried to calculate the percentages of 2011 (The votes were thankfully taken from the ElectoralCommission.):

drive.google.com/file/d/0B3l9c7vMJg_JcndQcXpTR0p5Zmc/view?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

[A Brown]

May 8, 2016 1:07:53 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Link to spreadsheet for the constituency results of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election here.

Scottish Election 2016 preliminary ward result estimate
Wards which were difficult to call:
* Ayr East (CON v SNP)
* Clackmannanshire East (CON v SNP)
* Clydesdale East (CON v SNP)
* Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (CON v SNP)
* Kinross-shire (CON v SNP)
* Lochar (CON v SNP)
* North Berwick Coastal (CON v LAB)
* Perth City South (CON v SNP)
* The Ferry (CON v SNP)
* Tweeddale East (CON v SNP)

North Berwick coastal would be Tory surely as they got 39% in the 2007 council elections. Not sure about the other East Lothian wards. I think you're exaggerating the churn. Faside and Preston/Seton would probably have been something like 38-40% Lab in both 2015 and 16 and could have both been either narrowly lost or won. Dunbar/East Linton and Haddington/Lammermuir are more complicated three way with Dunbar and Haddington being straight SNP vs Lab fights and the rural areas being better for the Tories.

[jluk234]

May 8, 2016 1:07:53 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

! Update: Added regional list returns by constituency to spreadsheet.

Full spreadsheet of the constituency and regional list results sorted by constituency available here (excel document).

Ward result map (constituency) estimate:

I'd have thought that the Inverleith ward would have gone conservative considering they got the most votes their in 2012 and the greens would have probably nocked the SNP into second. I also think Perth City South and Carse of Cowrie went Conservative.

[edinburghtory]

Aug 22, 2016 17:39:37 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Aug 22, 2016 16:30:11 GMT jluk234 said:

I'd have thought that the Inverleith ward would have gone conservative considering they got the most votes their in 2012 and the greens would have probably nocked the SNP into second. I also think Perth City South and Carse of Cowrie went Conservative.

Yes they certainly would have been ahead there (perhaps I mistook Inverleith for City Centre?)

I think for the Tories to have won Edinburgh Central they probably won both City Centre and Inverleith, obviously a large part of this would have been the Greens taking votes from the SNP in Old Town and Stockbridge. Also the part of Corstorphine/Murrayfield that is in Central but I am not sure how that would fit into your map.

[edinburghtory]

Aug 23, 2016 21:27:14 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Aug 23, 2016 12:17:36 GMT edinburghtory said:

I think for the Tories to have won Edinburgh Central they probably won both City Centre and Inverleith, obviously a large part of this would have been the Greens taking votes from the SNP in Old Town and Stockbridge. Also the part of Corstorphine/Murrayfield that is in Central but I am not sure how that would fit into your map.

I was uncertain about Inverleith as it is shared between Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh Northern & Leith and Edinburgh Western - though I suspect that the Conservatives just managed it.

With the parts of Inverleith being really Tory in the Central part and the SNP vote being split by the Greens I would think so.

[jluk234]

May I ask how close the result was in Morningside?

[finsobruce]

Aug 24, 2016 19:58:53 GMT jluk234 said:

May I ask how close the result was in Morningside?

You may ask - but only very politely.

[jluk234]

Aug 24, 2016 20:09:20 GMT finsobruce said:

Aug 24, 2016 19:58:53 GMT jluk234 said:

May I ask how close the result was in Morningside?

You may ask - but only very politely.

Please?

[jluk234]

A swing map

The largest swing was a swing of 17% to the Conservatives from the SNP in Aberdeenshire East.

[jluk234]

The drop in the Labour vote by constituency.

Every seat in Greater Glasgow saw a drop of more than 10% in each seat. This decrease saw Labour fall to 3rd in several seats

[jluk234]

The increase in the Conservative vote in each constituency. Edinburgh Western, NE Fife, Orkney and Shetland went against the national swing due to tactical voting.

[jluk234]

The increases and decreases of the SNP vote in each seat. The red seat in Glasgow is Glasgow Kelvin which is where Harvie stood.

[Georg Ebner]

Mine were already published, but perhaps...:
Participation:

SNP:

Labour:

SCUP:

LD:

GP:

TUSC:

Others/Independents:

[Tom]

It's clear that Tory tactical voting was what allowed the Liberal Democrats to win in Edinburgh Western and North East Fife. Will be interesting to see in future if the Tories can capture these seats. I believe on the list they beat the Lib Dems in Edinburgh Western and were only narrowly behind in North East Fife.

[finsobruce]

Dec 4, 2016 15:45:43 GMT Tom said:

It's clear that Tory tactical voting was what allowed the Liberal Democrats to win in Edinburgh Western and North East Fife. Will be interesting to see in future if the Tories can capture these seats. I believe on the list they beat the Lib Dems in Edinburgh Western and were only narrowly behind in North East Fife.

Is there not also going to be an element of LibDem recovery as well though ? Although the polls don't reflect it they are clearly back up and running in elections since they are no longer part of the coalition. l recognize the Tory Scottish surge too of course, just that it won't be the only factor.