Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998 
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Post by Tom on Dec 4, 2016 17:14:46 GMT
It's clear that Tory tactical voting was what allowed the Liberal Democrats to win in Edinburgh Western and North East Fife. Will be interesting to see in future if the Tories can capture these seats. I believe on the list they beat the Lib Dems in Edinburgh Western and were only narrowly behind in North East Fife. Is there not also going to be an element of LibDem recovery as well though ? Although the polls don't reflect it they are clearly back up and running in elections since they are no longer part of the coalition. l recognize the Tory Scottish surge too of course, just that it won't be the only factor. I think the evidence of a Lib Dem recovery is much weaker in Scotland than in England. And even in England has not shown in the opinion polls yet. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 5, 2016 11:17:15 GMT
Outside that handful of target seats, will they be any more significant a presence though?
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Dec 5, 2016 14:14:09 GMT
I think the evidence of a Lib Dem recovery is much weaker in Scotland than in England. And even in England has not shown in the opinion polls yet. Not true, the Liberal Democrats hold four constituencies in the Scottish Parliament and have a good chance of gaining upto three constituencies in Scotland at the 2020 UK general election depending on the boundary arrangements here. What I mean is that throughout England there is evidence of a Lib Dem recovery in council by-elections. The evidence is less clear cut in Scotland. It is true the Lib Dems hold four constituencies in the Scottish Parliament, but it seems to me that was a result of Unionist tactical voting more than anything else. In 2016 I believe the Lib Dem share of the constituency vote in fact fell slightly! |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 5, 2016 20:46:00 GMT
Not true, the Liberal Democrats hold four constituencies in the Scottish Parliament and have a good chance of gaining upto three constituencies in Scotland at the 2020 UK general election depending on the boundary arrangements here. What I mean is that throughout England there is evidence of a Lib Dem recovery in council by-elections. The evidence is less clear cut in Scotland. It is true the Lib Dems hold four constituencies in the Scottish Parliament, but it seems to me that was a result of Unionist tactical voting more than anything else. In 2016 I believe the Lib Dem share of the constituency vote in fact fell slightly! Doesn't matter how you win 'em so long as you win 'em. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 5, 2016 23:57:47 GMT
What I mean is that throughout England there is evidence of a Lib Dem recovery in council by-elections. The evidence is less clear cut in Scotland. It is true the Lib Dems hold four constituencies in the Scottish Parliament, but it seems to me that was a result of Unionist tactical voting more than anything else. In 2016 I believe the Lib Dem share of the constituency vote in fact fell slightly! Doesn't matter how you win 'em so long as you win 'em. Kinda does come to think about it. A tactical electorate is a volatile one, and as soon as they think that there's a reasonable chance of their (1st preference) prefered party/candidate winning, they'll ditch your guy for the other one.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 6, 2016 0:13:11 GMT
Doesn't matter how you win 'em so long as you win 'em. Kinda does come to think about it. A tactical electorate is a volatile one, and as soon as they think that there's a reasonable chance of their (1st preference) prefered party/candidate winning, they'll ditch your guy for the other one. Except that you can never be entirely sure that's what has gone on and some people vote "tactically" pretty much forever. If you win you've then become a party that can win. etc,etc. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 6, 2016 0:24:56 GMT
Kinda does come to think about it. A tactical electorate is a volatile one, and as soon as they think that there's a reasonable chance of their (1st preference) prefered party/candidate winning, they'll ditch your guy for the other one. Except that you can never be entirely sure that's what has gone on and some people vote "tactically" pretty much forever. If you win you've then become a party that can win. etc,etc. If initially you got in on mass tactical voting, the next step would be to consoldiate your support base and convince people to support you for non-tactical reasons, and because very few people like to vote for a loser, being a proven winner should help with exposure and holding on to voters. Secret ballot means that you can never truly know which individuals voted for you (and no ballot will tell you why), but if political situation of the area heavily suggests tactical voting by a certain segment of the electorate, then these are voters that one does/should not take for granted. At risk of beating the point into the ground, if party A has to rely on a substantial portion of party C's supporters to beat the otherwise dominant party B, then I'd say that A's position is anything but secure. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Dec 12, 2016 23:11:07 GMT
Ward result map (constituency) estimate: I've been working on my referendum notionals and it looks like @boogieeck was correct in suggesting that the Mearns ward voted for Alex Johnstone in 2016. I'm surprised that you have Westhill & District as Tory and Perth City South as SNP. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Dec 13, 2016 13:08:03 GMT
Other ones I'm surprised about / sceptical of:
No Conservative in North Perthshire
No Conservative in East Dunbartonshire
No Lib Dem in Caithness etc
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Dec 14, 2016 21:15:49 GMT
I thought the Tories were traditionally strongest in Strathmore and maybe Strathtay in north Perthshire?
I know the East Dunbartonshire constituencies weren't that close but of course there will be a large disparity in the Tory / SNP vote distribution, particularly in Clydebank & Milngavie.
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jluk234
Conservative
Next May Make Swinney Pay!
Posts: 431
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Post by jluk234 on Jan 1, 2017 15:31:31 GMT
I thought the Tories were traditionally strongest in Strathmore and maybe Strathtay in north Perthshire? I know the East Dunbartonshire constituencies weren't that close but of course there will be a large disparity in the Tory / SNP vote distribution, particularly in Clydebank & Milngavie. As I've said it's rather uniform in northern Perthshire: Strathtay, Strathmore and Blairgowrie & Glens were probably slightly better for them in comparison to Highland and Carse of Gowrie, but not by much. Regarding the wards in North Perthshire and a bit of analysis into recent election results, I'd say Carse of Gowrie is far stronger for the conservatives. In 2012, the SNP had a majority of 14.3% there. Strathmore had an SNP majority of 18%, Strathtay had an SNP majority of 23.1% and Blairgowrie and Glens had an SNP majority of 22.1%. Thus, it is obvious that the conservatives are more likely to come first in the Carse of Gowrie than in Strathtay. The 2015 majorities were as follows; Carse of Gowrie - SNP majority of 12.4% Strathmore - SNP majority of 14.1% Strathtay - SNP majority of 22.5% Blairgowrie and Glens - SNP majority of 21.1% My predicted 2017 majorities are as follows; Carse of Gowrie - Conservative majority of 3.7%% Strathmore - Conservative majority of 1% Strathtay - SNP majority of 4.2%% Blairgowrie and Glens - SNP majority of 5.1% |
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joefaekemlin
SNP
I have been in or around the SNP since I was at primary school and a member since 1980
Posts: 147
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Post by joefaekemlin on Mar 5, 2017 5:07:39 GMT
I would appreciate some feedback on my website
scottish-election-results.simplesite.com
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 22, 2017 22:11:08 GMT
ntyuk1707 Would you be able to tell me the UK Parliamentary constituency notionals based on the 2016 Scottish Parliament vote for constituency and list? I've noticed your notionals in some constituency threads and they were very useful in helping me formulate 2017 predictions. Apologies if you have already posted them elsewhere, I feel like you have but couldn't find them.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 23, 2017 10:47:42 GMT
ntyuk1707 Would you be able to tell me the UK Parliamentary constituency notionals based on the 2016 Scottish Parliament vote for constituency and list? I've noticed your notionals in some constituency threads and they were very useful in helping me formulate 2017 predictions. Apologies if you have already posted them elsewhere, I feel like you have but couldn't find them. Yes certainly my figures are available from my post on this page. Many thanks. Do you have any figures for other constituencies? Obviously the vast majority of these seats won't be competitive but still trying to make predictions for them  |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 29, 2017 12:42:15 GMT
ntyuk1707 Figures are very useful and look forward to your council result notionals, although they may be a bit too favourable towards the Conservatives! On your target seat post, you have listed 'Lanark and Hamilton West'. Is this meant to be 'Lanark and Hamilton East' and if so have you calculated using the right wards?
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 29, 2017 13:57:28 GMT
ntyuk1707 Figures are very useful and look forward to your council result notionals, although they may be a bit too favourable towards the Conservatives! On your target seat post, you have listed 'Lanark and Hamilton West'. Is this meant to be 'Lanark and Hamilton East' and if so have you calculated using the right wards? Thank you very much. Yes the figures are definitely correct, just a typo on my part! All good then. On a related note, do you know if/when the Scottish Parliament constituencies will be updated? Without ward level knowledge of Scottish politics, it's quite hard to work out which constituencies are equivalent, never mind who gains/loses out from different boundaries. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on May 29, 2017 16:05:53 GMT
A periodic boundary review of Scottish Parliamentary boundaries is due to be submitted between 2018 and 2022, taking affect in time for the next Scottish Parliament election or the one after that. On current electorate figures I can't see there being any significant changes from the previous review, although I would like to see a bit more attention being paid to the north-east of the country (in particular the next review needs to sort out the ridiculous boundaries in Angus North & Mearns, rectify splits in Bearsden and Perth and consider revising the constituency boundaries between Clackmannanshire and Stirling). Galloway & Upper Nithsdale also needs to return to allow for the town of Dumfries to be wholly contained within a single constituency with Annandale and Eskdale. Comparisons are often limited, which is why I created my notionals in the first place! I don't understand why they don't just use Westminster boundaries, even they are still somewhat better! I know there would be a lot less constituencies but they could be compensated with more regional allocations (making sure constituency heavy parties like the SNP can't get a majority on 45%) and redrawing the boundaries would make them a lot better than at the moment for many of the examples you laid out above. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on May 30, 2017 5:22:48 GMT
A periodic boundary review of Scottish Parliamentary boundaries is due to be submitted between 2018 and 2022, taking affect in time for the next Scottish Parliament election or the one after that. On current electorate figures I can't see there being any significant changes from the previous review, although I would like to see a bit more attention being paid to the north-east of the country (in particular the next review needs to sort out the ridiculous boundaries in Angus North & Mearns, rectify splits in Bearsden and Perth and consider revising the constituency boundaries between Clackmannanshire and Stirling). Galloway & Upper Nithsdale also needs to return to allow for the town of Dumfries to be wholly contained within a single constituency with Annandale and Eskdale. Comparisons are often limited, which is why I created my notionals in the first place! I don't understand why they don't just use Westminster boundaries, even they are still somewhat better! The 2003 Queen's Speech promised to keep the number of MSPs at 129. Nobody has since challenged that figure as far as I can see. In order to use current Westminster constituencies you'd need to add 69 list members to get up to that number, which is already a form of hypercorrection and doesn't divide neatly among the current 8 regions. If you were to use the proposed boundaries, you'd need to top up the FPTP seats with 75 additional members! Either you push for a much smaller Holyrood, or you accept that the Scottish Parliament has to have separate boundary reviews. |
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Post by afleitch on Jun 2, 2017 20:55:31 GMT
I would be keen on the Commission stopping seats crossing the old Regional boundaries.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Jun 3, 2017 14:38:22 GMT
I would be keen on the Commission stopping seats crossing the old Regional boundaries. Yes it would be nice for them to continue to observe the Ayrshire-Greater Glasgow boundary as well in the Scottish Parliament. Respecting the old regional boundaries would allow for some very pleasant boundaries in Grampian for Banff & Buchan, Gordon, Moray and Kincardine & Deeside without any ward splits. It would also be good to have three constituencies wholly covering Aberdeen in my opinion (namely Aberdeen Central, Deeside and Donside). It would probably mean two constituencies in Angus quite a bit under quota, but I think that an east-west split is appropriate (East Angus consisting of Arbroath, Carnoustie and Montrose and West Angus consisting of Brechin, Forfar, Kirriemuir and Monifieth). How would you construct the boundaries in the North East? |
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