Trivia

[hullenedge]

Experts disagreeing about notional winners for new boundaries has always been a feature. Scotland 1970 notionals:-

Renfrewshire West - both BBC and ITN had Labour as victors but Bochel & Denver put the Tories first.
Dunbartonshire East - BBC and Bochel & Denver Labour but ITN Tory.
Lanark - all three agreed here that the seat was notionally Tory but the performance in neighbouring seats suggests that Judith Hart may have been in a stronger position.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 7, 2024 8:10:31 GMT hullenedge said:

Experts disagreeing about notional winners for new boundaries has always been a feature. Scotland 1970 notionals:-

Renfrewshire West - both BBC and ITN had Labour as victors but Bochel & Denver put the Tories first.
Dunbartonshire East - BBC and Bochel & Denver Labour but ITN Tory.
Lanark - all three agreed here that the seat was notionally Tory but the performance in neighbouring seats suggests that Judith Hart may have been in a stronger position.

I think some of the Nuffield studies in the appendix have in footnotes which seats had disputes on the notionals. Also 'the special seats/handset seats' category in BBC and ITN election night forecasts used to have these seats allocated to them if the result was seriously in dispute

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Just gone through the Returning Officers Orders. Here's how many constituencies each electoral authority will be administering.

Local authority	Number of constituencies
Aberdeen	2
Aberdeenshire	3
Adur	1
Amber Valley	1
Angus	2
Argyll and Bute	1
Arun	1
Ashfield	1
Ashford	2
Babergh	1
Barking and Dagenham	2
Barnet	3
Barnsley	2
Basildon	1
Basingstoke and Deane	2
Bassetlaw	1
Bath and North East Somerset	2
Bedford	2
Bexley	2
Birmingham	10
Blaby	1
Blackburn with Darwen	1
Blackpool	1
Blaenau Gwent	1
Bolsover	1
Bolton	3
Boston	1
Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	4
Bracknell Forest	1
Bradford	5
Braintree	2
Breckland	1
Brent	2
Brentwood	1
Bridgend	1
Brighton and Hove	3
Bristol	5
Broadland	2
Bromley	3
Bromsgrove	1
Broxbourne	1
Broxtowe	1
Buckinghamshire	5
Burnley	1
Bury	2
Caerphilly	1
Calderdale	2
Cambridge	1
Camden	2
Cannock Chase	1
Canterbury	2
Cardiff	4
Carmarthenshire	2
Castle Point	1
Central Bedfordshire	2
Ceredigion	1
Charnwood	2
Chelmsford	1
Cheltenham	1
Cherwell	2
Cheshire East	4
Cheshire West and Chester	4
Chesterfield	1
Chichester	1
Chorley	1
Clackmannanshire	1
Colchester	1
Conwy	1
Cornwall	6
Cotswold	2
Coventry	3
Crawley	1
Croydon	3
Cumberland	3
Dacorum	1
Darlington	1
Dartford	1
Denbighshire	1
Derby	3
Derbyshire Dales	1
Doncaster	3
Dorset	4
Dover	1
Dudley	3
Dumfries and Galloway	2
Dundee	1
Durham	6
Ealing	3
East Ayrshire	1
East Cambridgeshire	1
East Devon	2
East Dunbartonshire	1
East Hampshire	1
East Hertfordshire	1
East Lindsey	1
East Lothian	1
East Renfrewshire	1
East Riding of Yorkshire	3
East Staffordshire	1
East Suffolk	2
Eastbourne	1
Eastleigh	1
Edinburgh	5
Eilean Siar	1
Elmbridge	1
Enfield	3
Epping Forest	1
Epsom and Ewell	1
Erewash	1
Exeter	1
Falkirk	1
Fareham	2
Fenland	1
Fife	4
Flintshire	2
Folkestone and Hythe	1
Forest of Dean	1
Fylde	1
Gateshead	1
Gedling	1
Glasgow	6
Gloucester	1
Gosport	1
Gravesham	1
Great Yarmouth	1
Greenwich	3
Guildford	1
Gwynedd	1
Hackney	2
Halton	2
Hammersmith and Fulham	2
Harborough	0
Haringey	2
Harlow	1
Harrow	2
Hart	1
Hartlepool	1
Hastings	1
Havant	1
Havering	2
Herefordshire	2
Hertsmere	1
High Peak	1
Highland	2
Hillingdon	3
Hinckley and Bosworth	1
Horsham	2
Hounslow	2
Huntingdonshire	1
Hyndburn	1
Inverclyde	1
Ipswich	1
Isle of Anglesey	1
Isle of Wight	2
Islington	2
Kensington and Chelsea	1
Kings Lynn and West Norfolk	2
Kingston upon Hull	3
Kingston upon Thames	1
Kirklees	4
Knowsley	1
Lambeth	4
Lancaster	2
Leeds	7
Leicester	3
Lewes	1
Lewisham	3
Lichfield	1
Lincoln	1
Liverpool	5
London Corporation	0
Luton	2
Maidstone	2
Maldon	1
Malvern Hills	1
Manchester	6
Mansfield	1
Medway	3
Melton	1
Merthyr Tydfil	1
Merton	2
Mid Devon	1
Mid Suffolk	2
Mid Sussex	2
Middlesbrough	2
Midlothian	1
Milton Keynes	3
Mole Valley	1
Monmouthshire	1
Moray	1
Neath Port Talbot	2
New Forest	2
Newark and Sherwood	2
Newcastle upon Tyne	3
Newcastle-under-Lyme	1
Newham	3
Newport	2
North Ayrshire	1
North Devon	1
North East Derbyshire	1
North East Lincolnshire	2
North Hertfordshire	2
North Kesteven	1
North Lanarkshire	4
North Lincolnshire	1
North Norfolk	1
North Northamptonshire	3
North Somerset	2
North Tyneside	1
North Warwickshire	1
North West Leicestershire	1
North Yorkshire	7
Electoral Office of Northern Ireland	18
Northumberland	4
Norwich	1
Nottingham	3
Nuneaton and Bedworth	1
Oadby and Wigston	1
Oldham	2
Orkney Islands	1
Oxford	1
Pembrokeshire	1
Pendle	1
Perth and Kinross	1
Peterborough	2
Plymouth	3
Portsmouth	2
Powys	2
Preston	1
Reading	1
Redbridge	2
Redcar and Cleveland	1
Redditch	1
Reigate and Banstead	1
Renfrewshire	2
Rhondda Cynon Taff	2
Ribble Valley	1
Richmond upon Thames	2
Rochdale	2
Rochford	1
Rossendale	1
Rother	1
Rotherham	3
Rugby	1
Runnymede	1
Rushcliffe	1
Rushmoor	1
Rutland	1
St Albans	2
St Helens	2
Salford	2
Sandwell	3
Scottish Borders	1
Sefton	3
Sevenoaks	1
Sheffield	6
Shetland Islands	0
Shropshire	3
Slough	1
Solihull	2
Somerset	7
South Ayrshire	2
South Cambridgeshire	2
South Derbyshire	1
South Gloucestershire	2
South Hams	1
South Holland	1
South Kesteven	1
South Lanarkshire	3
South Norfolk	1
South Oxfordshire	1
South Ribble	1
South Staffordshire	2
South Tyneside	2
Southampton	2
Southend-on-Sea	2
Southwark	2
Spelthorne	1
Stafford	1
Staffordshire Moorlands	1
Stevenage	1
Stirling	1
Stockport	3
Stockton-on-Tees	2
Stoke-on-Trent	3
Stratford-upon-Avon	1
Stroud	1
Sunderland	3
Surrey Heath	1
Sutton	2
Swale	1
Swansea	2
Swindon	2
Tameside	2
Tamworth	1
Tandridge	1
Teignbridge	1
Telford and Wrekin	2
Tendring	2
Test Valley	1
Tewkesbury	1
Thanet	1
Three Rivers	1
Thurrock	2
Tonbridge and Malling	1
Torbay	1
Torfaen	1
Torridge	1
Tower Hamlets	2
Trafford	2
Tunbridge Wells	1
Uttlesford	1
Vale of Glamorgan	1
Vale of White Horse	2
Wakefield	4
Walsall	2
Waltham Forest	3
Wandsworth	3
Warrington	2
Warwick	2
Watford	1
Waverley	2
Wealden	1
Welwyn Hatfield	1
West Berkshire	2
West Devon	0
West Dunbartonshire	1
West Lancashire	1
West Lindsey	1
West Lothian	2
West Northamptonshire	4
West Oxfordshire	1
West Suffolk	2
Westminster	2
Westmorland and Furness	2
Wigan	3
Wiltshire	5
Winchester	1
Windsor and Maidenhead	2
Wirral	3
Woking	1
Wokingham	2
Wolverhampton	3
Worcester	1
Worthing	1
Wrexham	1
Wychavon	1
Wyre	1
Wyre Forest	1
York	2

[johnloony]

Feb 11, 2024 11:59:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Just gone through the Returning Officers Orders. Here's how many constituencies each electoral authority will be administering.

Local authority	Number of constituencies
Croydon	3
Lambeth	4

Lambeth has got 52% of Streatham & Croydon North (and Croydon has only got 48%); although Croydon overall has a bigger electorate than Lambeth . Does each constituency automatically get allocated to the borough which has the plurality of the constituency’s electorate? Or do they sometimes try to make it “fairer” by other criteria?

I’m guessing also that Croydon pays Lambeth in some way for doing ”their” share of the constituency, or provides staff, or whatever

[greatkingrat]

I thought that Shetland was bigger than Orkney, but it seems Orkney will be doing the counting.

[johnloony]

Feb 11, 2024 11:59:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Just gone through the Returning Officers Orders. Here's how many constituencies each electoral authority will be administering.

Local authority	Number of constituencies
Electoral Office of Northern Ireland	18

It is understandable for reasons of political sensitivity that the EONI administers or overseas the electoral arrangements, but in practical terms is the admin done de-facto by the local authorities anyway?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Feb 11, 2024 12:27:09 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 11, 2024 11:59:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Just gone through the Returning Officers Orders. Here's how many constituencies each electoral authority will be administering.

Local authority	Number of constituencies
Croydon	3
Lambeth	4

Lambeth has got 52% of Streatham & Croydon North (and Croydon has only got 48%); although Croydon overall has a bigger electorate than Lambeth . Does each constituency automatically get allocated to the borough which has the plurality of the constituency’s electorate? Or do they sometimes try to make it “fairer” by other criteria?

It's up to the UK government to decide, but they take account of capacity of the local authority and their performance in administering elections. Normally it will be the one with the largest electorate but not always.

I’m guessing also that Croydon pays Lambeth in some way for doing ”their” share of the constituency, or provides staff, or whatever.

No. For cross-border constituencies, all the electoral services team from the borough not doing the count does is to hand over the ballot boxes and associated information to the borough doing the count, after the close of the poll.

Each electoral services team then reclaims the cost of administering the election from central government (now under DLUHC; formerly Justice, previously Home Office).

[polupolu]

This is of no importance or consequence, just interesting to me in terms of the way our electoral system works

I have been playing around with the electoral calculus model (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html).
The current FT poll-of-polls has
Lab: 43.2, Con: 24.8, Reform: 10.3, LD 9.6, Green: 6.3

I thought it might be interesting to see what happened if a bit more of the Tory vote went to Reform and that tactical voting meant the greens were down a bit, Lab up a bit and the LDs back to 2019.
Plugging in:
Lab: 44.4, Con: 21.3, Reform: 13.9, LD: 11.8, Green: 4.6
While these numbers are not the most likely ones in a real election, there have been polls in the same sort of ball-park.

Anyway, those numbers gave the following seat distribution:
Lab: 502, Con: 53, Reform: 0, LD: 55, Green 2, SNP 17, Plaid 3

We would be in a position where the Tories were the second largest party by votes but the third largest by seats, where Reform were the third largest by votes but got no representation and where the LDs where the fourth largest by votes but got the second largest number of seats and were (presumably) the official opposition.

What a strange electoral system we have.

Edit:

In contrast, under 5-member constituencies STV (my preferred system), a very rough calculation leads me to think that both the current poll-of-poll numbers and my numbers above, would mean only a few LDs, probably some Reform (from the English East Coast), slightly more SNP, and just possibly a Green; but with the rest being about 2/3rds Lab and 1/3rd Tory.  However there is a good chance that the votes would actually split in a different way as tactical voting and squeezes would work differently.

[maxque]

Feb 27, 2024 18:09:29 GMT polupolu said:

This is of no importance or consequence, just interesting to me in terms of the way our electoral system works

I have been playing around with the electoral calculus model (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html).
The current FT poll-of-polls has
Lab: 43.2, Con: 24.8, Reform: 10.3, LD 9.6, Green: 6.3

I thought it might be interesting to see what happened if a bit more of the Tory vote went to Reform and that tactical voting meant the greens were down a bit, Lab up a bit and the LDs back to 2019.
Plugging in:
Lab: 44.4, Con: 21.3, Reform: 13.9, LD: 11.8, Green: 4.6
While these numbers are not the most likely ones in a real election, there have been polls in the same sort of ball-park.

Anyway, those numbers gave the following seat distribution:
Lab: 502, Con: 53, Reform: 0, LD: 55, Green 2, SNP 17, Plaid 3

We would be in a position where the Tories were the second largest party by votes but the third largest by seats, where Reform were the third largest by votes but got no representation and where the LDs where the fourth largest by votes but got the second largest number of seats and were (presumably) the official opposition.

What a strange electoral system we have.

Edit:

In contrast, under 5-member constituencies STV (my preferred system), a very rough calculation leads me to think that both the current poll-of-poll numbers and my numbers above, would mean only a few LDs, probably some Reform (from the English East Coast), slightly more SNP, and just possibly a Green; but with the rest being about 2/3rds Lab and 1/3rd Tory.  However there is a good chance that the votes would actually split in a different way as tactical voting and squeezes would work differently.

I present to you the Canadian election of 1993.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

Liberals: 41.2%, 177 seats (+94 seats)
Bloc Quebecois (pretty much a Quebec version of the SNP): 13.5%, 54 seats (and official opposition) (new party)
Reform (pretty much Reform): 18.7%, 52 seats (+52 seats)
NDP (pretty much Labour): 6.9%, 9 seats (-34 seats)
Progressive-Conservatives: 16.0%, 2 seats (-167 seats, as they were the incumbent government; they still finished second in votes despite that seat result)
Independent: 1 (+1 seat)

[The Bishop]

Because that 16% for the Tories was spread out pretty evenly across the country - as Liberals et al here know, that is liable to not get you many seats under FPTP.

[stb12]

I’ve been certain for longer than I think quite a lot of people that the Tories are heading for defeat with a Labour majority, but I have to say I would be utterly stunned if they dropped below triple figures, whatever some of the polling and seat prediction models may suggest

[ColinJ]

Feb 28, 2024 11:47:01 GMT stb12 said:

I’ve been certain for longer than I think quite a lot of people that the Tories are heading for defeat with a Labour majority, but I have to say I would be utterly stunned if they dropped below triple figures, whatever some of the polling and seat prediction models may suggest

I tend to agree with this following my attendance at a public event organised by Chorleywood Book Shop last Thursday. It was an "Evening with Alastair Campbell", the MC/inquisitor being ex-MP David Gauke.  Campbell was promoting his new book, But What Can I Do?  There must have been 500-600 people present in the large church hall in Amersham. The audience was a mixture of the progressive, the hostile, the curious and, of course, bibliophiles!   Undoubtedly middle-class, predominately white, generally 40+. 

At the end of the evening, Campbell asked if he could do his usual straw poll. Not, 'How will you vote at the GE?', but 'Who do you think will be Prime Minister after the election?'

The result was Rishi Sunak: 3 or 4, Keir Starmer: 500-600 (being the balance of the huge audience, although 'Someone Else' picked up  2 or 3 votes).   From Campbell's reaction, he had never seen such an overwhelming result at one of his events.  It tends to suggest that "everyone" knows that HMS Tory Party are about to hit the rocks and are quite prepared for Labour to win, possibly/probably handsomely.  

[Merseymike]

Feb 28, 2024 12:20:10 GMT ColinJ said:

Feb 28, 2024 11:47:01 GMT stb12 said:

I’ve been certain for longer than I think quite a lot of people that the Tories are heading for defeat with a Labour majority, but I have to say I would be utterly stunned if they dropped below triple figures, whatever some of the polling and seat prediction models may suggest

I tend to agree with this following my attendance at a public event organised by Chorleywood Book Shop last Thursday. It was an "Evening with Alastair Campbell", the MC/inquisitor being ex-MP David Gauke.  Campbell was promoting his new book, But What Can I Do?  There must have been 500-600 people present in the large church hall in Amersham. The audience was a mixture of the progressive, the hostile, the curious and, of course, bibliophiles!   Undoubtedly middle-class, predominately white, generally 40+. 

At the end of the evening, Campbell asked if he could do his usual straw poll. Not, 'How will you vote at the GE?', but 'Who do you think will be Prime Minister after the election?'

The result was Rishi Sunak: 3 or 4, Keir Starmer: 500-600 (being the balance of the huge audience, although 'Someone Else' picked up  2 or 3 votes).   From Campbell's reaction, he had never seen such an overwhelming result at one of his events.  It tends to suggest that "everyone" knows that HMS Tory Party are about to hit the rocks and are quite prepared for Labour to win, possibly/probably handsomely.  

Although the LibDems will vote for ,say, Harpenden & Berkhamsted, Labour will win Watford , even Hemel Hempstead.

[carlton43]

Feb 28, 2024 11:47:01 GMT stb12 said:

I’ve been certain for longer than I think quite a lot of people that the Tories are heading for defeat with a Labour majority, but I have to say I would be utterly stunned if they dropped below triple figures, whatever some of the polling and seat prediction models may suggest

Prepare for the possibility of being stunned.

Until recently I was of the opinion that remarks suggesting a total collapse were as absurd as the Greens asserting that they had a good chance of winning Bury St Edmunds at the last GE.  But recently I have been having serious thoughts and analysis of the effect of the insidious movement to Reform day-on-day.

[nodealbrexiteer]

I suppose the benchmark is the previous low of 157 out of 670 seats in 1906.Nearly beaten but not quite by 1997 and 2001!

[carlton43]

Feb 29, 2024 9:55:46 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

I suppose the benchmark is the previous low of 157 out of 670 seats in 1906.Nearly beaten but not quite by 1997 and 2001!

I can conceive of dropping below 100 if we reach perfect storm conditions.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 29, 2024 14:24:02 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 29, 2024 9:55:46 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

I suppose the benchmark is the previous low of 157 out of 670 seats in 1906.Nearly beaten but not quite by 1997 and 2001!

I can conceive of dropping below 100 if we reach perfect storm conditions.

1931 in reverse!

[David Ashforth]

Barnsley Archives and Local Studies: "We're celebrating 50 years of Barnsley Council with a small display in our reception area.

The council was formally established on 1 April 1974 under the Local Government Act 1972. The act brought major changes to the local government system and reduced the number of councils from 1245 to 412."

[greatkingrat]

The December 2023 electorates have now been published

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/datasets/electoralstatisticsforuk

If a new review was done based on these figures, then Northern Ireland would gain a seat, and London would lose one.

[johnloony]

Apr 13, 2024 14:10:21 GMT greatkingrat said:

The December 2023 electorates have now been published

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/datasets/electoralstatisticsforuk

If a new review was done based on these figures, then Northern Ireland would gain a seat, and London would lose one.

I like the idea of the Boundary Commission deciding which London constituency to “abolish” (leaving all the other existing constituencies unchanged), and where they would draw an additional constituency in Northern Ireland (overlapping and duplicating the existing ones).