Trivia

[johnloony]

Nov 15, 2023 13:22:02 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Nov 15, 2023 12:47:21 GMT hullenedge said:

Where Rishi and SKS sit economically in relation to their MPs:-

And also notable that the parties' MPs are "perfectly sorted", that is, all members of the left are left of all members or the right, and all members of the right are to the right of all members of the left.

The fact that the graph shows no overlap between the blue Bell curve and the red Bell curve is proof that their definition of "right"/"left" is a load of bovine dribblepoo.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 15, 2023 13:30:28 GMT manchesterman said:

Nov 15, 2023 13:22:02 GMT J.G.Harston said:

And also notable that the parties' MPs are "perfectly sorted", that is, all members of the left are left of all members or the right, and all members of the right are to the right of all members of the left.

Indeed. I'm also unclear as to how the X axis is defined. Economic position is calculated using what metrics?  Also, do we assume that the "average voter's economic position" is at the 50% mark? Which would mean that the most 'right-wing' Labour MP is the one most in tune with the average voter economically?

Or is it all just statistical jiggery-pokery?

It feels like a crude attempt to take binary votes in Parliament and try to make them some sort of worldview. A throw of the dice does not abolish chance, as someone once said.

[David Ashforth]

'Never Mind The Ballots' a collection of political and campaigning films from the BFI.

player.bfi.org.uk/free/collection/never-mind-the-ballots

[richardh]

What are the odds that a Prime Minister and a Queen at some time in the future will share the same birthday - January 9 1982 ?

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2023 8:19:11 GMT richardh said:

What are the odds that a Prime Minister and a Queen at some time in the future will share the same birthday - January 9 1982 ?

Assume:

1. There is a new Prime Minister, on average, once every 5 years

(there have been 10 PMs in the UK in the 47 years since 1976)

2. King Charles III will live until 2035

(the life expectancy of an average 75-year-old man in the UK is 12 years, according to this www.gov.uk/government/news/life-expectancy-at-older-ages-is-the-highest-its-ever-been#:~:text=men%20can%20now%20expect%20to,and%203%20years%20at%2095 )

3. King William V will live until 2066

(the life expectancy of an average 41-year-old man in the UK is to the age of 84)

4. Catherine will remain married to King William V throughout his reign, and will therefore be Queen for 31 years

5. The age, on appointment, of UK Prime Ministers is randomly distributed between the age of 40 and the age of 70

Therefore:

6. King William V and Queen Catherine will preside over about 7 Prime Ministers during their reign (6 appointed during the reign and one inherited from King Charles III)

7. The dates of birth of the Prime Ministers appointed in the period from c.2032 to c.2066 will be randomly distributed between (between 1962 and 1992) and (between 1996 and 2026), specifically:
8. The dates of birth of the approximately 7 hypothetical primer ministers are likely to be
(i) between 1962 and 1992
(ii) between 1967 and 1997
(iii) between 1972 and 2002
(iv) between 1977 and 2007
(v) between 1982 and 2012
(vi) between 1987 and 2017
(vii) between 1992 and 2022

9. The probability of those 7 hypothetical prime ministers NOT being born on 9th January 1982 is therefore:
(i) 10956 out of 10957
(ii) 10956 out of 10957
(iii) 10956 out of 10957
(iv) 10956 out of 10957
(v) 10956 out of 10957
(vi) 1
(vii) 1

The probability of all 7 hypothetical prime ministers not being born on 9th January 1982 is therefore (10956/10957)^5

The probability of any of those prime ministers being born on 9th January 1982 is 1 minus (10956/10957)^5

which is 1 in 2192

A reasonable bookmaker might offer odds of 2000/1

[greatkingrat]

I assume though, that there is already an MP with that particular birth date, so the question is really what are the odds that MP X will one day become prime minister?

[richardh]

2000 to 1 is rather good odds.
My favourite's chances of being PM may have increased (or decreased} over the last few days.

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2023 10:19:03 GMT greatkingrat said:

I assume though, that there is already an MP with that particular birth date, so the question is really what are the odds that MP X will one day become prime minister?

Oh, is there? Who?

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2023 8:19:11 GMT richardh said:

What are the odds that a Prime Minister and a Queen at some time in the future will share the same birthday - January 9 1982 ?

Another way of doing the calculation would be to start with the fact that c.2000 people were born in the UK on 9th January 1982.

c.7 prime ministers in c.30 years = 1 in 10,000,000 of the population
c.2,000 people born on 9th January 1982 = 2,000 possibilities of being one of the 1 in 10 million
which works out at c. 1 in 5,000
but that is only if the probability of becoming prime minister is equally spread out over all age groups.

[richardh]

Surely you have enough clues. 41 year old and been in the news. Did not Harold Wilson resign as a minister as a young MP?

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2023 11:11:57 GMT richardh said:

Surely you have enough clues. 41 year old and been in the news. Did not Harold Wilson resign as a minister as a young MP?

Oh! Robert Jenrick? The nature of politics at the moment (and the cycle of generations of here-today-gone-tomorrow politicians coming and going) is such that he will have long since ceased to be a significant political figure, and probably ceased to be an MP, long before King William V comes to the throne at all. So the calculation of odds should not be distorted by him specifically.

[richardh]

Dec 7, 2023 12:09:14 GMT johnloony said:

Dec 7, 2023 11:11:57 GMT richardh said:

Surely you have enough clues. 41 year old and been in the news. Did not Harold Wilson resign as a minister as a young MP?

Oh! Robert Jenrick? The nature of politics at the moment (and the cycle of generations of here-today-gone-tomorrow politicians coming and going) is such that he will have long since ceased to be a significant political figure, and probably ceased to be an MP, long before King William V comes to the throne at all. So the calculation of odds should not be distorted by him specifically.

[richardh]

I don’t agree. He’s young, a confident speaker and personable. He’s secured his position with right of the Conservative Party and has lots of time to appeal to the mainstream of the party. I have a modest wager that he will be the next leader of the Conservatives.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I'm not sure the future is notably bright for Robert Jenrick. He has a number of high profile and seriously bad mistakes in his record, and his way of trying to avoid them just led to a well-deserved nickname as "Robert Generic". Can't see him impressing either Conservative backbenchers or the grassroots party enough to win a leadership election.

[matureleft]

Dec 7, 2023 12:15:36 GMT richardh said:

I don’t agree. He’s young, a confident speaker and personable. He’s secured his position with right of the Conservative Party and has lots of time to appeal to the mainstream of the party. I have a modest wager that he will be the next leader of the Conservatives.

If that should come to pass I'd imagine that members of other parties would quietly celebrate. He may be personable among friends and supporters, or in one-to-ones, but he isn't a good media performer and always gives the impression of being a little slow-witted. His ministerial record is largely poor. There must be people who at least look and sound sharper than him (even if they are not!). 

[manchesterman]

Oh I dont know. Richard Desmond speaks very highly of him!

[johnloony]

Dec 7, 2023 12:15:36 GMT richardh said:

I don’t agree. He’s young, a confident speaker and personable. He’s secured his position with right of the Conservative Party and has lots of time to appeal to the mainstream of the party. I have a modest wager that he will be the next leader of the Conservatives.

If Robert Jenrick is the next leader of the Conservative Party, then he will never be Prime Minister.

[hullenedge]

The constituency poll for the Rochdale by-election, 1972:-

Lab 39%
Lib 32%
Con 19%
Ind 1%
Don't Know 9%

No indication how many polled so no MoE.

MEN, 21st October 1972

[The Bishop]

Published nearly a week before the actual vote, so it was quite possibly very accurate at the time - the famed Dead Russian taking care of the rest.

[johnloony]

Jan 23, 2024 13:34:07 GMT The Bishop said:

Published nearly a week before the actual vote, so it was quite possibly very accurate at the time - the famed Dead Russian taking care of the rest.

Do you mean Igor Sikorsky? How would his death have made any difference to the result of the Rochdale by-election?