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Post by greenhert on Apr 18, 2021 10:12:39 GMT
That sounds like a novel way of keeping existing arrangements intact. Or did you mean 'existing arrangements as they were 40 years ago'? I meant existing arrangements in the west of Greater Manchester; it is not possible to maintain the existing arrangements in the east of Greater Manchester due to knock-on effects of Stockport being entitled to exactly three whole seats, which necessitates inter alia the abolition of Denton & Reddish. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 14, 2022 12:48:00 GMT
This started out as a serious go at seeing if a high-ball 9-constituency South and Mid Glamorgan worked:  1 Cardiff North 75632 Yes 2 Cardiff East 75385 Yes 3 Cardiff West and Llantrisant 73303 Yes 4 Cardiff South and Penarth 76693 Yes 5 Vale of Glamorgan 76814 Yes 6 Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare 74805 Yes 7 Pontypridd 75254 Yes 8 Ogmore 75447 Yes 9 Bridgend 75908 Yes |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 8, 2022 11:58:00 GMT
It's very important to ensure that the two IOW seats have equal electorates...
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 14, 2022 10:34:00 GMT
Lisburn and Upper Falls. Actually makes sense in terms of compactness and an urban area that just flows on, but I believe it'd be a SF-DUP marginal with whichever of the two loses out not being happy.  |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 26, 2022 12:56:33 GMT
There's some actual bona fide pitchfork bait being proposed for the boundary changes in Havant, that of combining most of Hayling Island with part of the mainland. s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/Reviews/South%20East/Hampshire/Havant/Draft/Havant_D_SO.pdfNot a chance in hell that this will survive to final recommendations, crazy to even propose it in the first place. The local denizens are not impressed (and neither are the people of Langstone, being put in with The Island). |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 26, 2022 14:09:54 GMT
There's some actual bona fide pitchfork bait being proposed for the boundary changes in Havant, that of combining most of Hayling Island with part of the mainland. s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/lgbce/Reviews/South%20East/Hampshire/Havant/Draft/Havant_D_SO.pdfNot a chance in hell that this will survive to final recommendations, crazy to even propose it in the first place. The local denizens are not impressed (and neither are the people of Langstone, being put in with The Island). Not knowing the area, but what's the alternative? if Hayling Island is too small for 2 wards and too large for one, this looks like the only possible solution on the map you've posted. What else are the LGBCE supposed to propose here? If it's simply going over/under the 10% variance or amending the overall number of councillors to make this fit, then I wouldn't be so sure they will amend even if it's unpopular locally. |
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Post by mattb on May 26, 2022 14:38:01 GMT
Not knowing the area, but what's the alternative? if Hayling Island is too small for 2 wards and too large for one, this looks like the only possible solution on the map you've posted. What else are the LGBCE supposed to propose here? If it's simply going over/under the 10% variance or amending the overall number of councillors to make this fit, then I wouldn't be so sure they will amend even if it's unpopular locally. Well on a very brief flick through the report ... would be very tough, I think, to make an argument to retain two 3-member wards wholly on the Island (not least because the knock-on in Havant itself looks tricky, those proposed wards are already on the large size) so probably better to argue for an exception to the 3-member pattern and reduce the Island to 5 cllrs if it is important no ward should cross the bridge. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 26, 2022 15:12:15 GMT
On the numbers, it looks like it's possible (although tight) to get two three-member wards out of Hayling Island (predicted 2027 electorate of the island is 15165, 36 councillors means a predicted 2027 figure of 2796 electors per councillor, 15165/2796=5.42 so you can do it with two wards at -10%.) The difficulty is in accommodating Langstone's electors in St Faith's - it might just be possible to shuffle things along into Bedhampton, but it would be decidedly tricky.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on May 26, 2022 15:16:14 GMT
Not knowing the area, but what's the alternative? if Hayling Island is too small for 2 wards and too large for one, this looks like the only possible solution on the map you've posted. What else are the LGBCE supposed to propose here? If it's simply going over/under the 10% variance or amending the overall number of councillors to make this fit, then I wouldn't be so sure they will amend even if it's unpopular locally. Well on a very brief flick through the report ... would be very tough, I think, to make an argument to retain two 3-member wards wholly on the Island (not least because the knock-on in Havant itself looks tricky, those proposed wards are already on the large size) so probably better to argue for an exception to the 3-member pattern and reduce the Island to 5 cllrs if it is important no ward should cross the bridge. Having a one three and one two member ward would wash. Even though Havant elects by thirds, they currently have four two member wards, covering the huge Leigh Park estate, so there is precedent for a two member ward in this thirds council. Eastleigh up the road also retains two member wards though electing by thirds (and currently Fareham has a single three member ward in a council elected by halves!) so there are plenty of exceptions locally. I fully expect that the response from most will be to retain two three member wards on The Island, but someone with sense should propose the exceptional circumstances for the two member ward. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 26, 2022 16:02:34 GMT
A reduction in council size to 35 would also make it much easier for St Faith's to take in Langstone (it'd probably have to donate some electors elsewhere, but fewer.) You would need to make some minor adjustments in Waterlooville to get back within 10%, however.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 26, 2022 17:20:16 GMT
On the numbers, it looks like it's possible (although tight) to get two three-member wards out of Hayling Island (predicted 2027 electorate of the island is 15165, 36 councillors means a predicted 2027 figure of 2796 electors per councillor, 15165/2796=5.42 so you can do it with two wards at -10%.) The difficulty is in accommodating Langstone's electors in St Faith's - it might just be possible to shuffle things along into Bedhampton, but it would be decidedly tricky. This is why it's so important to do initial modelling *before* you decide on a recommended total number of councillors. We did so to find a number that would ensure Whitby and Filey were each allocated an exact whole number of borough council wards. An initial look at the numbers shows it should also be possible to do so again for the new council to ensure Whitby and Filey are each encompassed in an exact whole number of new divisions. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 26, 2022 17:58:06 GMT
On the numbers, it looks like it's possible (although tight) to get two three-member wards out of Hayling Island (predicted 2027 electorate of the island is 15165, 36 councillors means a predicted 2027 figure of 2796 electors per councillor, 15165/2796=5.42 so you can do it with two wards at -10%.) The difficulty is in accommodating Langstone's electors in St Faith's - it might just be possible to shuffle things along into Bedhampton, but it would be decidedly tricky. This is why it's so important to do initial modelling *before* you decide on a recommended total number of councillors. We did so to find a number that would ensure Whitby and Filey were each allocated an exact whole number of borough council wards. An initial look at the numbers shows it should also be possible to do so again for the new council to ensure Whitby and Filey are each encompassed in an exact whole number of new divisions. If you look at the Tory Party response (effectively the council's response due to their dominance) they effectively assumed that Hayling would retain its two seats, but then stupidly (leadership based on the mainland alert) put Langstone out there as a potential way for the wards not to be undersized on Hayling alone. If they had any sense they would have presented it as a fait accompli as the only place they could include to bring wards into size would be Langstone anyway, they didn't need to tell them. Under the previous leader, an Islander himself, it would never have happened... |
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Post by mattb on May 26, 2022 20:48:55 GMT
A reduction in council size to 35 would also make it much easier for St Faith's to take in Langstone (it'd probably have to donate some electors elsewhere, but fewer.) You would need to make some minor adjustments in Waterlooville to get back within 10%, however. ... or else stick with 36 in total but reconfigure the proposed Hayling West/Langstone and St Faiths as three x 2-member wards? The numbers look like they should work. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 26, 2022 23:56:50 GMT
A reduction in council size to 35 would also make it much easier for St Faith's to take in Langstone (it'd probably have to donate some electors elsewhere, but fewer.) You would need to make some minor adjustments in Waterlooville to get back within 10%, however. ... or else stick with 36 in total but reconfigure the proposed Hayling West/Langstone and St Faiths as three x 2-member wards? The numbers look like they should work. Won't fly with current LGBCE criteria, where non 3-seaters for councils electing by thirds are exceptionnal and shouldn't happen, ideally. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on May 27, 2022 9:17:53 GMT
... or else stick with 36 in total but reconfigure the proposed Hayling West/Langstone and St Faiths as three x 2-member wards? The numbers look like they should work. Won't fly with current LGBCE criteria, where non 3-seaters for councils electing by thirds are exceptionnal and shouldn't happen, ideally. Though just up the road, exactly that happened in Eastleigh with much less geographical considerations to take into account (with three two member wards). |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2022 9:42:07 GMT
... or else stick with 36 in total but reconfigure the proposed Hayling West/Langstone and St Faiths as three x 2-member wards? The numbers look like they should work. Won't fly with current LGBCE criteria, where non 3-seaters for councils electing by thirds are exceptionnal and shouldn't happen, ideally. Though this could of course be considered an exceptional circumstance for the reasons already set out. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2022 13:34:22 GMT
Reading through the submissions it's very very obvious that none of the local residents understand what's happening
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Post by carlton43 on May 27, 2022 13:43:39 GMT
Reading through the submissions it's very very obvious that none of the local residents understand what's happening I really don't think that at least 90% care at all as long as it makes reasonable sense, they have a vote, and that vote has a fairly equal value to those of surrounding seats and the national average, if they even think about it at all. It is the users of green ink, anoraks and party hacks that obsess over it all. Would I mind if my constituency straddled the Thames, M25, M1, Pennines, county boundary, a park, a reservoir, an airfield, a dual carriageway or a railway line? Not on any way. Providing I was not expected to cross them from my home to the polling station. And even then I have a Postal so who cares? If I suspected a gerrymander against my party in the boundary I would object. All the rest is specious ullage. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 27, 2022 15:55:39 GMT
... or else stick with 36 in total but reconfigure the proposed Hayling West/Langstone and St Faiths as three x 2-member wards? The numbers look like they should work. Won't fly with current LGBCE criteria, where non 3-seaters for councils electing by thirds are exceptionnal and shouldn't happen, ideally. Why is electing by thirds even a thing? It just results in unwieldily massive wards and a bunch of extra expenses payable to the deputy returning officer. It's madness. It also seems to most infest the places in England with the fewest councillors per elector to start with, just magnifying the ridiculousness of it all. England should be more like Wales here. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on May 27, 2022 16:16:51 GMT
It's very important to ensure that the two IOW seats have equal electorates... While on this page, this has been bugging me for a while. It is very important to ensure that the two IOW seats have equal electorates. But sirbenjamin 's example is very close but not quite right. The exact electorate each constituency needs is 55858. I confess I've found this through a computer program, and I don't yet know whether it's a unique solution or not, but the below is the first solution I've found that creates two connected constituencies with this exact electorate each. There are over 1 million ways of selecting 19/20 wards to have the exact electorate required, but the vast majority of these have at least one non-connected constituency.  EDIT a week later: I think that may be a unique solution - I've eliminated all other options that came out, but not a watertight proof. |
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