Pitchfork Bait

[johnloony]

"London Saints"

[finsobruce]

Mar 8, 2021 3:53:12 GMT johnloony said:

"London Saints"

could include the even more detatched parishes of St Reatham and St Ockwell.

[johnloony]

Mar 8, 2021 9:41:24 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 8, 2021 3:53:12 GMT johnloony said:

"London Saints"]

could include the even more detatched parishes of St Reatham and St Ockwell.

Unfortunately, no it couldn't because any more would have gone over the limit.

[sirbenjamin]

The good people of Sutton Coldfield will be delighted to see their parliamentary representation increased to three seats.

[islington]

In reviewing the overall numbers for the 2023 review I note with interest that the total electorate of the protected seats is 220132, which, if the normal UK quote applied, works out perfectly for three seats.

How might this be achieved?

Well, Anglesey and Western Isles together is ideal for a seat with 73592.

That leaves O&S and the IoW good for two seats with 146540 - presumably one for O&S with a convenient chunk of the IoW containing say 35000 to 40000 voters; and another for the remainder of the IoW.

I can't see how anyone could possibly object to this.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 11, 2021 16:58:02 GMT islington said:

In reviewing the overall numbers for the 2023 review I note with interest that the total electorate of the protected seats is 220132, which, if the normal UK quote applied, works out perfectly for three seats.

How might this be achieved?

Well, Anglesey and Western Isles together is ideal for a seat with 73592.

That leaves O&S and the IoW good for two seats with 146540 - presumably one for O&S with a convenient chunk of the IoW containing say 35000 to 40000 voters; and another for the remainder of the IoW.

I can't see how anyone could possibly object to this.

Not necessarily. Orkney & Medina has quite a nice ring to it - Shetland and South Wight being the other seat

[East Anglian Lefty]

Apr 12, 2021 11:45:41 GMT YL said:

Surely it should be called "Straths of Tay and Spey".

I present "Straths of Allan, Earn, More, Tay, Spey and Bogie" (75109). Sadly I can't find any way to add Strathpeffer to the seat.

[Eastwood]

Apr 13, 2021 17:41:41 GMT islington said:

I hope mattb realizes that what he's done here means that if there were no such thing as the 13000 km2 limit, it would theoretically be possible to produce a legal plan for the whole of Scotland with only a single ward split (in Edinburgh, where so far as I can see the maths can't be overcome).

With a slight cheat there is an Edinburgh map without a ward split. You have to imagine there is a narrow connection down the central reservation of Edinburgh City bypass connecting Drumbrae / Gyle with Pentland Hills.

The 6 seats include a relatively sensible Edinburgh Central (76952) and a slightly odd Edinburgh North and West (69877).

They get a bit wackier with Leith, Portobello and Dalkeith (71201) a Liberton & Midlothian (74855) seat and an Edinburgh South & Penicuik (76601).

The highlight though is the almost contiguous Inverleith, Drumbrae, Pentlands and West Tweeddale (72191) that takes in that small cheat along the bypass as well as crossing over the 567m summit of East Cairn Hill via a footpath connection only. 

[bjornhattan]

Apr 13, 2021 22:34:21 GMT Eastwood said:

Apr 13, 2021 17:41:41 GMT islington said:

I hope mattb realizes that what he's done here means that if there were no such thing as the 13000 km2 limit, it would theoretically be possible to produce a legal plan for the whole of Scotland with only a single ward split (in Edinburgh, where so far as I can see the maths can't be overcome).

With a slight cheat there is an Edinburgh map without a ward split. You have to imagine there is a narrow connection down the central reservation of Edinburgh City bypass connecting Drumbrae / Gyle with Pentland Hills.

The 6 seats include a relatively sensible Edinburgh Central (76952) and a slightly odd Edinburgh North and West (69877).

They get a bit wackier with Leith, Portobello and Dalkeith (71201) a Liberton & Midlothian (74855) seat and an Edinburgh South & Penicuik (76601).

The highlight though is the almost contiguous Inverleith, Drumbrae, Pentlands and West Tweeddale (72191) that takes in that small cheat along the bypass as well as crossing over the 567m summit of East Cairn Hill via a footpath connection only. 

I'm sold on that last one, if only because it seems like it could be a pretty decent Conservative target!

[greenhert]

Which constituencies that once existed in real life would fall under the term "Pitchfork Bait"?

Colchester North and Colchester South & Maldon spring to mind, as does Middleton & Prestwich.

[YL]

This plan does quite well when it comes to not crossing council boundaries in northern Scotland. However...



Aberdeenshire and Angus

Buchan 71,562
Banff & Inverurie 72,946
Kincardine, Deeside & the Angus Glens 69,784
Forfar 72,447

Aberdeen

Aberdeen Central 76,538
Aberdeen Outer 76,917

Highland, Perth & Kinross and Argyll & Bute

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross approx 72,071
Inverness, Skye & Lochaber approx 76,175
Argyll & Bute approx 69,884
Straths of Allan, Earn, Tay & Spey Drumochter 71,373
Perth City & Kinross 72,005

(using the ward splits suggested by Eastwood ; NB I couldn't get a split of Fort William & Ardnamurchan to display on the map)

Dundee, Fife and Clackmannanshire

Dundee Outer 69,886
Beautiful Constituency of the Silvery Tay Dundee Central & St Andrews 71,311 (includes Coldside, Maryfield and East End wards of Dundee, connected by the Tay Road Bridge)
Glenrothes & Cupar approx 70,760
Kirkcaldy 72,380
Dunfermline & Cowdenbeath approx 70,401
Clackmannanshire & Rosyth approx 70,711

(very approximate numbers where wards are split in Fife; basically split a couple of wards to make the thing work!)

plus Moray and Stirling coterminous with their councils.

[piperdave]

Apr 13, 2021 22:34:21 GMT Eastwood said:

Apr 13, 2021 17:41:41 GMT islington said:

I hope mattb realizes that what he's done here means that if there were no such thing as the 13000 km2 limit, it would theoretically be possible to produce a legal plan for the whole of Scotland with only a single ward split (in Edinburgh, where so far as I can see the maths can't be overcome).

With a slight cheat there is an Edinburgh map without a ward split. You have to imagine there is a narrow connection down the central reservation of Edinburgh City bypass connecting Drumbrae / Gyle with Pentland Hills.

The 6 seats include a relatively sensible Edinburgh Central (76952) and a slightly odd Edinburgh North and West (69877).

They get a bit wackier with Leith, Portobello and Dalkeith (71201) a Liberton & Midlothian (74855) seat and an Edinburgh South & Penicuik (76601).

The highlight though is the almost contiguous Inverleith, Drumbrae, Pentlands and West Tweeddale (72191) that takes in that small cheat along the bypass as well as crossing over the 567m summit of East Cairn Hill via a footpath connection only. 

I get Edinburgh Central to be 138 electors over quota.

[Eastwood]

Apr 16, 2021 20:58:25 GMT piperdave said:

Apr 13, 2021 22:34:21 GMT Eastwood said:

With a slight cheat there is an Edinburgh map without a ward split. You have to imagine there is a narrow connection down the central reservation of Edinburgh City bypass connecting Drumbrae / Gyle with Pentland Hills.

The 6 seats include a relatively sensible Edinburgh Central (76952) and a slightly odd Edinburgh North and West (69877).

They get a bit wackier with Leith, Portobello and Dalkeith (71201) a Liberton & Midlothian (74855) seat and an Edinburgh South & Penicuik (76601).

The highlight though is the almost contiguous Inverleith, Drumbrae, Pentlands and West Tweeddale (72191) that takes in that small cheat along the bypass as well as crossing over the 567m summit of East Cairn Hill via a footpath connection only. 

I get Edinburgh Central to be 138 electors over quota.

City Centre, Corstorphine, Sighthill and Fountainbridge is within quota.

[bsjmcr]

Apr 13, 2021 22:57:25 GMT greenhert said:

Which constituencies that once existed in real life would fall under the term "Pitchfork Bait"?

Colchester North and Colchester South & Maldon spring to mind, as does Middleton & Prestwich.

Absolutely - the Wikipedia article on M&P accurately describes this. It was of course almost recreated in the 600 seats review.

Can’t think of many former ones off the top of my head (in the north that is) - Knowsley North and Sefton East possibly? Clumsy name and shape, and I believe the Sefton East parts are quite different to Knowlsey North, though being a 97 creation, probably ironically united in unanimous Labour support, given the nature of the middle class areas in those parts of Sefton (as the Labour safeness of the new Sefton Central shows)

Heywood and Royton had an odd shape almost encircling Rochdale, though not a ‘demographically different’ pitchfork bait I guess. From the same era, the Belper, and Darwen constituencies also appear to sprawl out unnaturally.

This is probably a bit rich coming from me given how large some rural constituencies are and it must be pretty commonplace for a constituent to have never been to another town/village in the constituency, but I find the pre-2010 Eccles to be an awkward long thin snake of a creation. I’m from Prestwich and go to neighbouring Swinton (which was in ‘Eccles’) and its environs all the time but I have never been to Irlam or Cadishead in my life yet it was also in ‘Eccles’. No wonder the turnout was so low. The new Worsley and Eccles South/ Salford and Eccles combination might have an unwieldy name but is much more logical as a creation.

I know very little about these other areas but on face value (ie map shapes!) Aylesbury, Burton, and Guildford all look awful and would make the US boundary makers proud. Perhaps there are natural features (rivers?) that have resulted in this?

York Outer also resulted in a lot of pitchforks when it was proposed I believe? 

[🏴‍☠️ Neath West 🏴‍☠️]

Apr 13, 2021 22:57:25 GMT greenhert said:

Which constituencies that once existed in real life would fall under the term "Pitchfork Bait"?

Dwyfor Meirionnydd. Someone will have downloaded the PDF of the review that proposed it – it used to be on the Welsh Commission's website. A good chunk of the ten people or so who live on the Llŷn peninsula gave the Commission an exceptionally hard time about being put in a constituency centered on Dolgellau.

[ilerda]

I think it’s important not to confuse imperfect constituencies with actual pitchfork bait. There are lots of seats that are not optimally designed (like Guildford etc), but they are often required to be like this to accommodate surrounding seats. Just because they’re less than ideal, it doesn’t make them pitchfork bait.

[greenhert]

Apr 17, 2021 0:41:57 GMT bsjmcr said:

Apr 13, 2021 22:57:25 GMT greenhert said:

Which constituencies that once existed in real life would fall under the term "Pitchfork Bait"?

Colchester North and Colchester South & Maldon spring to mind, as does Middleton & Prestwich.

Absolutely - the Wikipedia article on M&P accurately describes this. It was of course almost recreated in the 600 seats review.

Can’t think of many former ones off the top of my head (in the north that is) - Knowsley North and Sefton East possibly? Clumsy name and shape, and I believe the Sefton East parts are quite different to Knowlsey North, though being a 97 creation, probably ironically united in unanimous Labour support, given the nature of the middle class areas in those parts of Sefton (as the Labour safeness of the new Sefton Central shows)

Heywood and Royton had an odd shape almost encircling Rochdale, though not a ‘demographically different’ pitchfork bait I guess. From the same era, the Belper, and Darwen constituencies also appear to sprawl out unnaturally.

This is probably a bit rich coming from me given how large some rural constituencies are and it must be pretty commonplace for a constituent to have never been to another town/village in the constituency, but I find the pre-2010 Eccles to be an awkward long thin snake of a creation. I’m from Prestwich and go to neighbouring Swinton (which was in ‘Eccles’) and its environs all the time but I have never been to Irlam or Cadishead in my life yet it was also in ‘Eccles’. No wonder the turnout was so low. The new Worsley and Eccles South/ Salford and Eccles combination might have an unwieldy name but is much more logical as a creation.

I know very little about these other areas but on face value (ie map shapes!) Aylesbury, Burton, and Guildford all look awful and would make the US boundary makers proud. Perhaps there are natural features (rivers?) that have resulted in this?

York Outer also resulted in a lot of pitchforks when it was proposed I believe? 

Unfortunately there is a good chance Middleton & Prestwich will reappear in this review as well. I ended up with it in my own plan for Greater Manchester simply to try and keep existing arrangements intact and create sensible seats wherever possible without extensive change (which also meant I came up with a recreated Heywood & Royton seat, not to mention an awkward equivalent of Manchester Openshaw, which always had Droylsden in it).

[Pete Whitehead]

That sounds like a novel way of keeping existing arrangements intact. Or did you mean 'existing arrangements as they were 40 years ago'?

[andrewteale]

Apr 17, 2021 19:39:58 GMT greenhert said:

Apr 17, 2021 0:41:57 GMT bsjmcr said:

Absolutely - the Wikipedia article on M&P accurately describes this. It was of course almost recreated in the 600 seats review.

Can’t think of many former ones off the top of my head (in the north that is) - Knowsley North and Sefton East possibly? Clumsy name and shape, and I believe the Sefton East parts are quite different to Knowlsey North, though being a 97 creation, probably ironically united in unanimous Labour support, given the nature of the middle class areas in those parts of Sefton (as the Labour safeness of the new Sefton Central shows)

Heywood and Royton had an odd shape almost encircling Rochdale, though not a ‘demographically different’ pitchfork bait I guess. From the same era, the Belper, and Darwen constituencies also appear to sprawl out unnaturally.

This is probably a bit rich coming from me given how large some rural constituencies are and it must be pretty commonplace for a constituent to have never been to another town/village in the constituency, but I find the pre-2010 Eccles to be an awkward long thin snake of a creation. I’m from Prestwich and go to neighbouring Swinton (which was in ‘Eccles’) and its environs all the time but I have never been to Irlam or Cadishead in my life yet it was also in ‘Eccles’. No wonder the turnout was so low. The new Worsley and Eccles South/ Salford and Eccles combination might have an unwieldy name but is much more logical as a creation.

I know very little about these other areas but on face value (ie map shapes!) Aylesbury, Burton, and Guildford all look awful and would make the US boundary makers proud. Perhaps there are natural features (rivers?) that have resulted in this?

York Outer also resulted in a lot of pitchforks when it was proposed I believe? 

Unfortunately there is a good chance Middleton & Prestwich will reappear in this review as well. I ended up with it in my own plan for Greater Manchester simply to try and keep existing arrangements intact and create sensible seats wherever possible without extensive change (which also meant I came up with a recreated Heywood & Royton seat, not to mention an awkward equivalent of Manchester Openshaw, which always had Droylsden in it).

The proposals East Anglian Lefty and I came up with for Greater Manchester didn't involve Middleton and Prestwich at all - in fact the only breach of the Bury borough boundary was the addition of Little Lever. The pitchfork shop is around the corner, I will report back if there is a run on them.

And unless your Heywood and Royton seat included Littleborough and Whitworth, it's not a recreation of the old seat.

[greenhert]

Apr 18, 2021 8:56:11 GMT andrewteale said:

Apr 17, 2021 19:39:58 GMT greenhert said:

Unfortunately there is a good chance Middleton & Prestwich will reappear in this review as well. I ended up with it in my own plan for Greater Manchester simply to try and keep existing arrangements intact and create sensible seats wherever possible without extensive change (which also meant I came up with a recreated Heywood & Royton seat, not to mention an awkward equivalent of Manchester Openshaw, which always had Droylsden in it).

The proposals East Anglian Lefty and I came up with for Greater Manchester didn't involve Middleton and Prestwich at all - in fact the only breach of the Bury borough boundary was the addition of Little Lever. The pitchfork shop is around the corner, I will report back if there is a run on them.

And unless your Heywood and Royton seat included Littleborough and Whitworth, it's not a recreation of the old seat.

If I had added Littleborough & Whitworth, my version of Heywood & Royton would be at least 20,000 electors over the maximum limit. Even in 1979 the old Heywood & Royton seat had over 82,000 electors!