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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 20:37:37 GMT
Cheshire and Greater Manchester are as per my earlier proposal with two changed areas. One is north-east Cheshire, or how you sort out the problem of the ward sizes in Stockport. Compared to my previous proposal, here are the following changes. TATTON (75536). No longer gains Prestbury from Macclesfield, instead gaining Dane Valley. MACCLESFIELD (75686). As well as those swaps with Tatton, gains Bramhall South and Woodford ward from Cheadle; loses Disley ward to an expanded Hazel Grove. CHEADLE (71139). Loses Bramhall South and Woodford to Macclesfield, gains Davenport and Cale Green from Stockport to just sneak in at the bottom end of the range. HAZEL GROVE (74182). Gains Manor ward from Stockport, and Disley ward from Macclesfield. So, no ward splits in Stockport, but there are now three seats crossing the Greater Manchester/Cheshire boundary instead of one. Which option will be preferred?  |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 20:55:55 GMT
The other area where my original Greater Manchester/Cheshire proposal had a split ward was Wigan, which was a consequence of (a) my moving Atherton out of Bolton West, and (b) the fact that Wigan has twenty-five wards to be divided between three constituencies. My solution to this problem: transfer Orrell ward into the West Lancashire constituency. This might be construed as pitchfork bait but there is precedent for Orrell and Skem being in the same seat. Unfortunately the balance between the two remaining Wigan seats, once the Leigh wards and Orrell are taken out, is very fine and I had to redraw them in such a way that Wigan town centre is now split between constituencies. That gives: LEIGH (74949): gains Atherton, loses Golborne and Lowton West. WIGAN SOUTH AND MAKERFIELD (71596): Abram, Ashton, Bryn, Douglas, Golborne/Lowton West, Pemberton, Winstanley, Worsley Mesnes. WIGAN NORTH (72132): Aspull New Springs Whelley, Hindley, Hindley Green, Ince, Shevington/Lower Ground, Standish/Langtree, Wigan Central, Wigan West.  |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 11, 2016 21:04:41 GMT
However Stockport would be much nicer with the ward split.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 21:13:36 GMT
However Stockport would be much nicer with the ward split. I agree, but this might be an easier sell to the BCE. Moving on to the rest of south-west Lancashire: Preston, Chorley, South Ribble and West Lancashire districts. WEST LANCASHIRE (76552): gaining Orrell ward makes the West Lancashire too large, so Scarisbrick ward is transferred to South Ribble. SOUTH RIBBLE (76356): As well as gaining Scarisbrick, South Ribble also has transferred into it the two Farington wards and the part of New Longton/Hutton East ward not already in it. This makes the seat too large, so Eccleston and Mawdesley ward is transferred to Chorley. CHORLEY (78287). The only change to this seat is gaining Eccleston/Mawdesley. The rest of South Ribble district (Bamber Bridge, Walton-le-Dale, Salmesbury) is then transferred into a new seat of PRESTON AND BAMBER BRIDGE (74916), which contains the whole of the current Preston constituency except Ingol ward.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 11, 2016 21:18:41 GMT
The other area where my original Greater Manchester/Cheshire proposal had a split ward was Wigan, which was a consequence of (a) my moving Atherton out of Bolton West, and (b) the fact that Wigan has twenty-five wards to be divided between three constituencies. My solution to this problem: transfer Orrell ward into the West Lancashire constituency. This might be construed as pitchfork bait but there is precedent for Orrell and Skem being in the same seat. Unfortunately the balance between the two remaining Wigan seats, once the Leigh wards and Orrell are taken out, is very fine and I had to redraw them in such a way that Wigan town centre is now split between constituencies.
That gives: LEIGH (74949): gains Atherton, loses Golborne and Lowton West. WIGAN SOUTH AND MAKERFIELD (71596): Abram, Ashton, Bryn, Douglas, Golborne/Lowton West, Pemberton, Winstanley, Worsley Mesnes. WIGAN NORTH (72132): Aspull New Springs Whelley, Hindley, Hindley Green, Ince, Shevington/Lower Ground, Standish/Langtree, Wigan Central, Wigan West. Since town centres are generally characterised by small populations which are mobile and have little local identification this doesn't seem too much of an issue. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 21:37:20 GMT
East Lancashire: Blackburrn with Darrwen, Rozzendale, Hyndburn, Burrrnley, Pendle, Ribble Valley. There is one bit of this which is very easy and attractive to do: Blackburrn and Rozzendale are spot on the quota for two seats, and it possible to draw those seats in such a way that the M65 motorway is the boundary between them. So: BLACKBURRN (72816). Gains Fernhurst ward from Rozzendale and Darrwen. ROZZENDALE AND DARRWEN (74991). Gains Haslingden from Hyndburn, loses Fernhurst ward to Blackburrn. Having lost Haslingden, HYNDBURN AND BURRRNLEY WEST (77227) now gets back up to quota by taking in four wards of Burrrnley: Gawthorpe, Hapton/Park, Rosegrove/Lowerrhouse and Gannow. The first two of these are Padiham; the last two are integral parts of Burrrnley but connected to Accrington by the M65 motorway and railway line. For the remaining two seats I'm essentially repeating my proposal to the zombie review. BURRRNLEY AND NELSON (71419) combines the rest of Burrrnley with Reedley, Brierfield and the six wards covering Nelson. COLNE AND CLITHEROE (74166) is the rest of Pendle plus most of Ribble Valley, with the exception of Chipping, Ribchester and the three wards covering Longridge which move into a north-Lancashire-based seat.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 21:56:14 GMT
andrewteale as I suspected, very little wiggle room. I began with a Zombie Review style "Pendle and Rural Burnley" but soon came against trouble. Very interesting that this forum is coming up with very similar Lancs proposals
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 22:01:27 GMT
North Lancashire: the rest of Preston, the Fylde peninsula, Wyre and Lancaster. There are some horrors here, I'm afraid. In a bid to avoid a seat running from Fulwood to Kirkby Lonsdale, I start in the north with LANCASTER NORTH, MORECAMBE AND LUNESDALE (78131), which is the current Morecambe and Lunesdale plus Marsh, Castle, Bulk and Lower Lune Valley wards. The southern half of Lancaster goes into a new seat which runs all the way down the A6 to Fulwood, and also includes the five western wards of Ribble Valley. This is such a diffuse seat I have no idea what to call it. LANCASTER SOUTH AND PRESTON NORTH (74007) seems a good working title. FYLDE (77038) is expanded to the north to take in four wards from Wyre district and now spans the entire peninsula. Blackpool South also expands to take in all but four wards of Blackpool, prompting a name change to BLACKPOOL (77724). The remaining four wards (Anchorsholme, Norbreck, Ingthorpe and Greenlands) then join with Fleetwood and Poulton-le-Fylde to form a new seat of FLEETWOOD AND BLACKPOOL NORTH (76999).  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 22:07:32 GMT
Andrew, that most recent upload looks like my current workings out. I've gone for Lancaster and Morecambe, Wyre, and Preston as names.
As you've shown/discovered, Lancs won't be pretty...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 11, 2016 22:08:55 GMT
As you've shown/discovered, Lancs won't be pretty... And some of the constituencies will be ugly too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2016 22:13:33 GMT
As you've shown/discovered, Lancs won't be pretty... And some of the constituencies will be ugly too. The shade of it all! |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 22:13:40 GMT
Finally, the five seats for Cumbria. Here I adopt the final proposals for the zombie review with a minor modification, as the proposed Westmorland and Lonsdale is now too small. WESTMORLAND AND LONSDALE (72237). The zombie review proposal plus Shap and Crosby Ravensworth wards. PENRITH AND SOLWAY (75793). The zombie review proposal minus Shap and Crosby Ravensworth wards. That leaves three seats as per the zombie review final proposals, BARROW AND FURNESS (77476), WEST CUMBRIA (76468) and CARLISLE (72023).  68 seats, no split wards. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 11, 2016 22:22:10 GMT
1 Altrincham and Sale 77226
2 Ashton-under-Lyne 75106
3 Barrow and Furness 77476
4 Blackburn 72816
5 Blackley, Broughton and Prestwich 74570
6 Blackpool 77724
7 Bolton East 72603
8 Bolton West 77948
9 Bootle and Kirkdale 77196
10 Burnley and Nelson 71419
11 Bury 71594
12 Carlisle 72023
13 Cheadle 71189
14 Chorley 78287
15 City of Chester 73723
16 Colne and Clitheroe 74166
17 Congleton 73641
18 Crewe and Nantwich 73435
19 Eddisbury 73851
20 Ellesmere Port and Heswall 73382
21 Fleetwood and Blackpool North 76999
22 Fylde 77038
23 Garston and Halewood 71942
24 Halton 73092
25 Hazel Grove 74182
26 Heywood and Middleton 75880
27 Hyndburn and Burnley West 77227
28 Knowsley 72597
29 Lancaster North, Morecambe and Lunesdale 78131
30 Lancaster South and Preston North 74007
31 Leigh 74949
32 Liverpool Croxteth 74616
33 Liverpool Old Swan 74393
34 Liverpool Toxteth 75730
35 Macclesfield 75686
36 Manchester Central 76181
37 Manchester Gorton 74507
38 Manchester Withington 75270
39 Manchester Wythenshawe 74315
40 Oldham East and Saddleworth 71495
41 Oldham West and Royton 75668
42 Penrith and Solway 75793
43 Preston and Bamber Bridge 74916
44 Radcliffe and Farnworth 77546
45 Rochdale 72530
46 Rossendale and Darwen 74991
47 St Helens North 72060
48 St Helens South and Whiston 74885
49 Salford 74161
50 Sefton Central 75368
51 South Ribble 76356
52 Southport 74641
53 Stalybridge and Hyde 78063
54 Stockport 77768
55 Stretford and Urmston 71721
56 Tatton 75536
57 Wallasey and Birkenhead 72931
58 Warrington North 72811
59 Warrington South 73320
60 Weaver Vale 72921
61 West Cumbria 76468
62 West Lancashire 76552
63 Westmorland and Lonsdale 72237
64 Wigan North 72132
65 Wigan South and Makerfield 71596
66 Wirral South 76128
67 Wirral West 75275
68 Worsley and Eccles South 72316
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 12, 2016 10:30:05 GMT
Sorry, but that Lancaster S/Preston N concoction is hideous in every way. Even the notorious "Valleys of Ribble and Lune" is easier on the eye and makes more sense  |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 12, 2016 11:02:06 GMT
Sorry, but that Lancaster S/Preston N concoction is hideous in every way. Even the notorious "Valleys of Ribble and Lune" is easier on the eye and makes more sense It will also allow some other more logical seats - Lancaster & Morecambe, Fylde (adding in Lea and the two rural Preston wards), Preston (taking in pretty much the entire town), |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 12, 2016 19:33:57 GMT
Sorry, but that Lancaster S/Preston N concoction is hideous in every way. Even the notorious "Valleys of Ribble and Lune" is easier on the eye and makes more sense It will also allow some other more logical seats - Lancaster & Morecambe, Fylde (adding in Lea and the two rural Preston wards), Preston (taking in pretty much the entire town), Lea was already in the proposed Fylde. Taking in the other suggestions:  Fylde (72823) Preston (77324) North Lancashire (77665) Lancaster and Morecambe (76426) Pendle (71437) Burnley and Accrington East (74030) Accrington West and Bamber Bridge (77199) I'm not sure which of those options I dislike more. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 12, 2016 19:47:27 GMT
Sorry, but that Lancaster S/Preston N concoction is hideous in every way. Even the notorious "Valleys of Ribble and Lune" is easier on the eye and makes more sense Garstang? Scorton? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 12, 2016 20:15:48 GMT
It will also allow some other more logical seats - Lancaster & Morecambe, Fylde (adding in Lea and the two rural Preston wards), Preston (taking in pretty much the entire town), Lea was already in the proposed Fylde. Taking in the other suggestions: Fylde (72823) Preston (77324) North Lancashire (77665) Lancaster and Morecambe (76426) Pendle (71437) Burnley and Accrington East (74030) Accrington West and Bamber Bridge (77199) I'm not sure which of those options I dislike more. Might it end up being better to dismember Rossendale & Darwen in order to keep both Burnley and Accrington whole? A fairly decent looking Pendle and Clitheroe seat can be created, but I have no idea what this would be like on the ground. |
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Post by krollo on Mar 12, 2016 20:39:08 GMT
I thought I'd join in on the Lancastrian fun.  Cumbria is more-or-less as per the boundary review; I imagine Carlisle would become safer Tory; Penrith and Solway would be safer still; Farron would still be OK in Westmorland, but would probably see his majority dashed a bit; West Cumbria would be safe Labour; Barrow and Furness would remain marginal, but the extra wards might just have sent it Tory in 2015. So probably Lab -2, Con +1 here. Lancashire is rather less simple. Lancaster and Morecambe might be a bit marginal, but I imagine Labour would have won in 2015. North Lancashire is cross-shaped, which is helpful since I'm going to be crucified for it. Ideally this would take in a bit more of the upper Ribble Valley, but in order to let the east of the county be at all sensible it seemed easiest to extend it southward; it largely consists of pro-Tory areas of various current seats and is theirs for the taking (despite the fact that it would seem to go down to the Wyre). Blackpool and environs at least work fairly nicely; Blackpool South is shored up for Labour with the addition of a couple of central wards; Blackpool North and Fleetwood becomes quite the Con-Lab marginal; without running the figures I would probably call it for the Tories in 2015. Fylde takes in some of rural Preston and remains blue. Preston recaptures Fulwood and remains red. East Lancashire is desperately ugly, and for me turned into an unexpected game of 'how can we best get rid of Nigel Evans?'. Pendle and Clitheroe is ugly, and Tory; Burnley gets an ugly dogleg down to Bacup, and would presumably stay Labour; Accrington (because does anyone really call it Hyndburn?) lurches northward, and becomes rather more marginal, but at a guess I would say it stays Labour by a nose. Blackburn, a rare seat that seems to make sense, stays Labour more comfortably. Rossendale and Darwen takes in a few wards to the west which make it slightly bluer. Chorley looks disgusting and stays Labour. South Ribble looks worse, but probably stays Tory. West Lancashire shifts up a bit and becomes another marginal, but probably not marginal enough for the Tories to take it this time. Lancashire thus has 8 Lab, 6 Con - a change of Con -2. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 12, 2016 20:43:24 GMT
If you dismember Rossendale and Darwen, not only do you still have to split Accrington, you also end up splitting Blackburn because there's nowhere else for Darwen to go. I did propose splitting Rossendale and Darwen to the zombie review, but that was in the context of creating a cross-county Rossendale and Ramsbottom seat which isn't necessary this time round.
The difficult bit in Lancashire is actually Bamber Bridge. It doesn't fit into either Chorley or South Ribble, so you have to either combine it with Preston, combine it with Blackburn or draw a seat up the Ribble Valley to, er, somewhere. Once you've made that decision, that pretty much fixes the pattern for most of the rest of the county.
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