2018 Review — North West England

[Deleted]

For Cumbria, Lancashire, Gtr Manchester, Merseyside, the two Cheshires and Wirral

[greatkingrat]

68 seats allocated

Cheshire 10.34
- Cheshire East 3.62
- Cheshire West & Chester 3.43
- Halton 1.24
- Warrington 2.05
Cumbria 5.00
Greater Manchester 25.37
- Bolton 2.53
- Bury 1.80
- Manchester 4.62
- Oldham 2.06
- Rochdale 1.98
- Salford 2.18
- Stockport 2.83
- Tameside 2.19
- Trafford 2.13
- Wigan 3.05
Lancashire 14.06
Merseyside 13.09
- Knowsley 1.47
- Liverpool 4.07
- St Helens 1.75
- Sefton 2.66
- Wirral 3.14

So Cumbria gets 5, Lancashire 14, Merseyside (excluding Wirral) 10, Warrington 2. Oldham, Rochdale and Wigan can all stand on their own.

The rest may have to be one big group with somewhere like Poynton put in a Stockport seat.

[A Brown]

Wirral should be more straightforward this time.

The two Moreton wards can be added to Wirral West to create an enlarged Wirral West seat

Rock Ferry and Prenton can be added to Wirral South to create an enlarged Wirral South.

The rest of Birkenhead and Wallasey can then be merged together to form Birkenhead and Wallasey seat.

[John Chanin]

Feb 24, 2016 22:02:03 GMT A Brown said:

Wirral should be more straightforward this time.

The two Moreton wards can be added to Wirral West to create an enlarged Wirral West seat

Rock Ferry and Prenton can be added to Wirral South to create an enlarged Wirral South.

The rest of Birkenhead and Wallasey can then be merged together to form Birkenhead and Wallasey seat.

It's very tight on the quota, and will certainly require ward splitting.  Better surely to move a Wirral ward into Cheshire?

[andrewteale]

Trying to split up that large 39-seat Cheshire/Gt Mcr/Wirral block into something more manageable. Wirral can stand alone but at 3.14 it would be easier to cross the county boundary into Cheshire than try and fit 22 wards into three seats. Adding Wirral to CWAC and Halton produces a grouping of 7.81 that can stand alone for eight seats. Warrington can stand alone for two.

Within Greater Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale and Wigan can stand alone for a total of seven seats (2+2+3). That leaves Bolton (2.53) in a corner position. Pairing Bolton with Bury is too large for four seats, pairing Bolton with Salford is too small for five seats. Grouping all three of those gives 6.51 quotas, too small for seven seats, so we have to add Manchester to the group to get a unit of 11.13 quotas and 11 seats.

We now have eleven seats to allocate to the three remaining Greater Manchester boroughs of Stockport, Tameside and Trafford (7.15) plus Cheshire East (3.62). It would be desirable to have a cross-border seat with either Stockport or Trafford but not both, and as luck would have it Stockport and Tameside pair off nicely for 5.02 quotas and 5 seats, which leaves Cheshire East plus Trafford to give 5.75 quotas. This can stand alone for six seats or (if this is too tight) combined with the Bolton/Bury/Manchester/Salford grouping for 17.

So it looks more likely that the Greater Manchester/Cheshire cross-border seat would be in the Bowdon area rather than the Poynton area.

[Deleted]

andrewteale - would you imagine "Bolton North and Daaar'en" making an appearance under those figures?

[Deleted]

May it always live on within our hearts

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That was the slightly more sane version of Mersey Banks where it was all on the south bank of the Mersey. The truly loopy version was the original one which included Hale and Ditton from the north bank:

[Khunanup]

Feb 25, 2016 10:08:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

That was the slightly more sane version of Mersey Banks where it was all on the south bank of the Mersey. The truly loopy version was the original one which included Hale and Ditton from the north bank:

Ah, the memories...

One slight correction, up until you get out of the estuary they're the east and west banks of the Mersey (even when it's north and south!).

[andrewteale]

Feb 25, 2016 7:37:39 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

andrewteale - would you imagine "Bolton North and Daaar'en" making an appearance under those figures?

No. The last review needed a cross-border seat partly in Greater Manchester and partly in Lancashire, because the entitlements then were 25.55 for Gt Mcr and 14.51 for Lancashire; because the rest of the region needed 28 seats and there were only 68 seats for the North West, the two counties couldn't be considered separately and needed to be paired for 40 seats. The Lancashire entitlement has declined to 14.06 since 2010 and this pairing is no longer necessary.

[andrewteale]

Continuing on Greater Manchester and Cheshire East.

In Rochdale, the two existing seats are both within quota and can stay as they are.

Tameside and Stockport runs into the same problem as last time, which is the ward sizes in Stockport which force a split ward (probably Stepping Hill).  In addition you have to split a ward in Tameside unless you add Oldham into the mix, which can be justified on minimum change criteria for Ashton-under-Lyne. It looks like my Oldham/Stockport/Tameside proposal from last time still works.

In Wigan, 25 wards for three seats won't go without a split ward. The obvious change is to move Atherton into the Leigh constituency and split Golborne and Lowton West, with Golborne transferring to Makerfield, although the numbers would be pretty tight. Wigan can be left unchanged.

Six seats for Cheshire East and Trafford doesn't work without a split ward, so I've added the Manchester/Salford/Bury/Bolton group into the mix to produce this surprisingly sane arrangement:



BOLTON WEST (77948). The current seat plus Hulton and Rumworth wards.
BOLTON NORTH EAST (72603). The current seat plus Great Lever ward.
BURY (71594). The current Bury North plus Unsworth ward.
RADCLIFFE AND FARNWORTH (77546). Essentially a merger of Bury South with the rump of Bolton South East.
WORSLEY AND ECCLES SOUTH (72316). Unchanged.
SALFORD AND ECCLES (74161). Unchanged.
BLACKLEY, BROUGHTON AND PRESTWICH (74570). Yes, it's tri-borough, but this is a coherent seat on the ground. Suddenly it becomes clear why Ivan Lewis is interested in the Mayor of Greater Manchester job - his seat is under threat of abolition.
MANCHESTER CENTRAL (76181). Gains Charlestown and Harpurhey, loses Hulme, Ardwick and Moss Side.
MANCHESTER GORTON (74507). Gains those three wards from Manchester Central, loses Levenshulme, Fallowfield and Whalley Range to Manchester Withington.
MANCHESTER WITHINGTON (75270). Gains those three wards from Manchester Gordon, loses Chorlton to Stretford and Urmston and the two Didsbury wards to Manchester Wythenshawe.
MANCHESTER WYTHENSHAWE (74315). Gains the Didsbury wards from Manchester Withington, loses the Sale wards to Altrincham and Sale.
STRETFORD AND URMSTON (71721). Gains Chorlton from Manchester Withington, loses Bucklow-St Martins to Altrincham and Sale.
ALTRINCHAM AND SALE (77226). Unites all of Sale within one constituency.
TATTON (71441). The cross-border seat. Includes Bowdon and Hale from Altrincham and Sale and gains Prestbury from Macclesfield.
MACCLESFIELD (73677). Expands slightly into Congleton.
CONGLETON (73641). Gains some rural territory from Eddisbury. Not a nice shape but the alternative is splitting Crewe.
CREWE AND NANTWICH (73435). Also gains some rural territory from Eddisbury.

[iain]

It looks as though there is no way to continue with a Morecambe & Lunesdale seat, which means we will probably get a Lancaster & Morecambe seat (which Cat Smith can thank her lucky stars for) and some sort of rural Lancashire monstrosity.

[Deleted]

Feb 25, 2016 17:01:02 GMT iain said:

It looks as though there is no way to continue with a Morecambe & Lunesdale seat, which means we will probably get a Lancaster & Morecambe seat (which Cat Smith can thank her lucky stars for) and some sort of rural Lancashire monstrosity.

If that means the triumphant return of Valleys of Ribble and Lune, I'm well happy.....

[lancastrian]

Thoughts for a 14 seat Lancashire. Hopefully there's a better alternative for the west of the county.

BLACKBURN (72816): adds Fernhurst
ROSSENDALE AND DARWEN (74991): -Fernhurst  +Haslingden
HYNDBURN (71893) Hyndburn borough, plus Padiham, and Read & Simonstone and Sabden from Ribble Valley (Sabden doesn't really go here but is necessary for the numbers)
BURNLEY & NELSON (77639) Missing Marsden ward, because it doesn't fit
CLITHEROE & COLNE (74545) Remainder of Pendle, Ribble Valley minus the above, Longridge and Chipping.

The split of Pendle isn't ideal but IMO it's less bad than the alternative split of Hyndburn.

WEST LANCASHIRE (71897) adds Rufford
CHORLEY (78287) adds Eccleston&Mawdeley
SOUTH RIBBLE (76604) loses the above, gains Farington and Lostock Hall
PRESTON (75041) adds the remainder of South Ribble borough. (Its not immediately obvious how to avoid this)

Now it really gets messy, someone more local can hopefully find improvements.

FYLDE (77342) adds Poulton-le-Fylde, loses Little Eccleston& Elswick
BLACKPOOL (73305) Blackpool South plus Claremont, Greenlands, Layton, Park, Warbreck.  Edit: Warbreck(or Greenlands) in (Blackpool North and?)Wyre.
WYRE ? (74906) Remainder of Blackpool, Fleetwood, Thornton-Cleveleys, Preesall, Hambleton etc
LANCASTER & MORECAMBE (76426) includes the University, Overton & Bolton&Slyne
Erm...'NORTH LANCASHIRE' (75617) Fulwood, Longridge, Little Eccleston, what's left of Wyre and Lancaster.

Lancaster has to be split in half to retain Morecambe and Lunesdale(and Lancaster Central). That North Lancs is horrendous though.

[Deleted]

My thinking would be the Commission would rather keep Morecambe and Lunesdale than create Lancaster and Morecambe, so maybe the knock on effect will be to link Wyre with RV.

[iain]

Feb 27, 2016 7:16:12 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

My thinking would be the Commission would rather keep Morecambe and Lunesdale than create Lancaster and Morecambe, so maybe the knock on effect will be to link Wyre with RV.

But how? Morecambe, Lunesdale & Lancaster North would seem to be the only possibility.

[The Bishop]

Well, isn't that basically what we have now?

[Deleted]

Time to dust off "Amounderness" as a name I think.....

[lancastrian]

Morecambe and Lunesdale needs Lower Lune Valley, Castle and Marsh to work. This splits Lancaster roughly 50-50 between it and the rural monstrosity. Whilst least change is Morecambe Lunesdale and Lancaster North, might it not be better to have a coherent Lancaster and Morecambe, given that the other seat is going to be horrible anyway.



On closer inspection 'Ribble Valley and Hyndburn West' looks quite neat on a map. However I don't like separating Church and Oswaldtwistle from Accrington (Church is essentially part of Accrington). Basically cutting Hyndburn in half creates a more compact, and probably better, Ribble Valley seat, but Pendle's towns are easier to separate. (Though it can't be done exactly without splitting a ward, which wouldn't be good for half of the ward in question, and I don't expect to be done).



Alternative Blackpool:

Wyre : as on page 1, but swap the Blackpool wards bar Anchorsholme for Poulton.
Blackpool South and Fylde: add the bottom four Blackpool wards instead of Poulton.

Wyre is very neat, Blackpool South and Fylde features parts of both Preston and Blackpool, and would be unpopular in Lytham. Also puts Blackpool wards in three constituencies.

[Deleted]

The boundary between southern Blackpool and Fylde cannot be crossed.