A few initial thought. If Darlington stands alone, then it's bad news for the Tories: it prevents the rural wards of Darlington being added to Stockton South. It seems Lewis Baston has given Labour the seat. Northumberland could stand alone, but it might be difficult. If North Tyneside just gets two seats, then perhaps Prudhoe could be joined to Gateshead, which would probably be preferable to splitting Ponteland, though Prudhoe parish, but not town, would be split.
I have now produced a scheme on the basis of the "chunks". They are: Berwick & Morpeth, Blyth & Ashington, Hexham & Cramlington, North Tyneside, Tynemouth, Newcastle East, Newcastle North, Tyne Bridge, Blaydon and Prudhoe, Jarrow & Gateshead East, South Shields, Redcar, Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland, Middlesbrough North & Thornaby, Stockton, Sedgefield & Billingham, Hartlepool, Easington, City of Durham, North Durham, West Durham, Washington & Sunderland West, Sunderland Central, Houghton & Seaham, Darlington. North Tyneside, Tynemouth and Sunderland Central are unchanged.
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 28, 2016 15:39:43 GMT
Getting three workable seats out of Northumerland is actually comparatively simple. Once you've realigned to the new ward boundaries, Hexham can be comprised of the current seat plus Cramlington and minus Bellingham ward. Berwick gains Bellingham, Morpeth, Pegswood, Choppington and Stakeford and loses Lynemouth (alternatively, you can drop Stakeford and keep Lynemouth, but at the cost of dividing an area of continuous settlement.) Possible name change to Berwick & Morpeth. Blyth & Ashington is then made up of everything left over.
However, it's rather more difficult to do the option with two safe Labour seats and a mash-up of Hexham and Berwick. You can get close by moving Bedlington into Blyth Valley and replacing it with Ponteland and Prudhoe, but one seat or another ends up with 1,000 too many electors no matter which variation I try. Put Prudhoe into Gateshead and I imagine that option gets easier.
EDIT: Actually, it turns out two safe Labour seats is possible. It's not overly elegant, but as obvious gerrymanders go it could be a lot worse. One seat begins at Druridge Bay and heads south to take in Ashington and Blyth, the other takes in Bedlington, Cramlington and the rest of the old Blyth Valley districts, Ponteland (which should be comfortably outvoted) and Prudhoe. You have to divide Choppington from Stakeford, but otherwise it's relatively clean.
There was no appetite in Labour for the zombie review to put forward anything transparently party political for Northumberland. If Northumberland is stand alone then the 0.11 of a seat will mean, I think, that my "chunks" break down. Prudhoe is a very natural extension of Gateshead. However, I have little expectation that the Commission will think like me!
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2016 0:14:26 GMT
I've now put together a full scheme for the North East. I went with 3 seats for Northumberland, 2 seats for North Tyneside, 6 seats for Gateshead, Newcastle and South Tyneside, 1 seat for Darlington and the remaining 13 grouped together. The numbers on the Newcastle seat are a little tight, so it might be worth adding Prudhoe to that group in order to neaten the lines for Tyne Bridge.
Starting with Cleveland, Hartlepool can almost stand alone. Add Blackhalls and Wingate from County Durham and you've got a perfectly cohesive seat.
You can then get four and half seats out of the rest of Cleveland, where at present there are five. It's fairly obvious that the part going into a Durham seat has to be Billingham. Stockton proper is almost exactly the right size for a seat, but unfortunately to get within quota you have to cross the Tees and add Yarm. That leaves three seats from Redcar, Middlesbrough and Thornaby. I got bored deciding exactly which wards to add to Redcar and realised that if you excise the Eston wards, you've got quite a nice-looking Redcar & Cleveland seat. The rest can divide east-west. Note that Middlesbrough, Durham and Northumberland have all been rewarded since the zombie review, so don't take the maps as gospel. If anybody is curious about any specific seat, I can list the component wards.
Billingham then combines with the core of the present Sedgefield seat (Newton Aycliffe, Trimdon, Ferryhill etc.) It actually looks a lot like the 1918-1974 Sedgefield, so you may as well keep that name.
Bishop Auckland extends an arm into the middle of the county, gaining Brandon and Willington. Once North West Durham has been realigned with the new ward boundaries, it adds the Deerness Valley.
I looked at a mash-up of Chester-le-Street and Washington, but I couldn't make the numbers work, so instead North Durham just adds Framwellgate Moor.
The few remaining bits of City of Durham (primarily the city, whose electorate has been slashed by IER) are combined with Easington, which loses Seaham.
Houghton & Sunderland South loses Sandhill but gains Seaham in return and would accordingly need a change of name.
Washington & Sunderland West gains Sandhill, which doesn't make it look terribly pretty but does allow Sunderland Central to remain unchanged. If that's not an issue, it's quite easy to shuffle wards about in Sunderland for slightly cleaner boundaries.
South Shields loses Simonside & Rekendyke but gains the Boldons. In turn Jarrow pushes further into Gateshead, gaining three more wards and requiring Gateshead East to be added to its name.
With the groupings I've used, Blaydon just needs to gain Dunston & Teams. If you wanted to add Prudhoe, then Dunston & Teams could stay with Tyne Bridge.
If you leave the two seats in North Tyneside alone and cross the Tyne in the usual place, then the only way to get Newcastle East up to quota is to add both Gosforth wards. In turn, that decides what you do with Tyne Bridge. My version contains Bridges; Chowdene; Deckham; Lobley Hill & Bensham; Low Fell and Saltwell on the south side, and Blakelaw; Fenham; Kenton; Westgate and Wingrove on the northern bank. This is ungodly ugly and I'd like to have swapped Blakelaw and Kenton for Elswick and Benwell & Scotswood, but unfortunately that's just outside quota. Again, if Prudhoe goes into Blaydon then this isn't a problem.
Hexham adds Cramlington to its area and seat name, Berwick does the same for Morpeth and the remainders of Wansbeck and Blyth Valley are mashed together. Again, move Prudhoe and you can likely to do this a little more neatly.
Without shifting Prudhoe, this gives you the following electorates.
Berwick and Morpeth 77,026 Hexham and Cramlington 77,181 Blyth and Ashington 78,241 Tynemouth 74,618 North Tyneside 76,427 Newcastle upon Tyne East 72,409 Newcastle upon Tyne North 73,934 Tyne Bridge 71,659 Blaydon 72,232 Jarrow & Gateshead East 74,770 South Shields 71,143 Sunderland Central 71,232 Washington & Sunderland West 74,961 Houghton & Seaham 75,771 North Durham 74,985 North West Durham 72,970 Bishop Auckland 78,281 City of Durham & Easington 76,871 Hartlepool 77,215 Sedgefield 78,336 Darlington 74,929 Stockton-on-Tees 75,818 Middlesbrough West & Thornaby 75,966 Middlesbrough East 74,470 Redcar & Cleveland 72,951
I agree on some, but my scheme is less contrived and alters existing constituencies much less, as follows. 1. :Berwick & Morpeth: expand Berwick southward to take in Morpeth area and Bellingham, but not any Ashington or Bedlington. Electorate 73286. 2. Asington & Blyth: remainder of Wansbeck plus Blyth. Electorate 73869 3. Hexham & Cramlington: Hexham less Prudhoe and Bellingham, plus Cramlington. Electorate 77442 4. Newcastle East: add West Gosforth & East Gosforth: Electorate 72409 5. Newcastle North: add Blakelaw, Kenton. Lose East Gosforth. Electorate 74613 6. Blaydon & Prudhoe. The name says it all. Electorate 74260. 7. Tyne Bridge. remainder of Newcastle Central plus Bridges, Deckham, Dunston & Teams, Felling, Lobley Hill & Bensham, Low Fell, Saltwell. Electorate 75497 8. Jarrow & Gateshead East: Lose Fellgate & Hedworth, Cleadon & East Boldon; Gain Chowdene, High Fell, Windy Nook & Whirehills. Electorate 71275 9. South Shields: Take wards lost by Jarrow. Electorate 75944 10. Washington & Sunderland West: add Shiney Row. Electorate 76704 11. Sunderland Central. Unchanged. 12. Houghton & Seaham. Lose Shiney Row, Add Seaham etc. Electorate 74028 13. Billingham & Sedgefield. Billingham area plus Newton Aycliffe, Shildon etc. Electorate 75082 14. Redcar. Add Brotton & Saltburn. Electorate 73840 15. Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland. Add rest of east Middlesbrough,lose Brotton & Saltburn. Electorate 73640 16. Middlesbrough North & Thornaby. Rest of Middlesbrough plus Thornaby & Ingleby Barwick. Electorate 75907. 17. Stockton. Lose Thornaby & IB. Gain Norton, Hardwick etc. Electorate 73184 18. Hartlepool. Gain Blackhalls & Wingate. Electorate 77215 19. Easington. Lose Blackhalls, Wingate, Seaham. Gain Coxhoe, Sherburn, Tudhoe, Ferryhill. Electorate 78195 20. North Durham. Gain Burnopfield, Dipton, Esh, Witton Gilbert. Electorate 76964 21. City of Durham. Minus areas lost to Easington & North Durham. Plus Crook, Tow Law, Willington, Spennymoor Electorate 76150 22. West Durham. Remainders. Alternative name: Bishop Auckland & Consett. Electorate 76966 23. Darlington. Coterminous.Electorate 74969 24. North Tyneside unchanged at 76427 25. Tynemouth. unchanged at 74618.
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 1, 2016 19:48:03 GMT
I think we're basically agreement in Tyne & Wear, or at least we are in the version where you shift Prudhoe in (which you're definitely right about.) I don't have any strong objections to your Teesside arrangement, because mine was essentially derived because I was too lazy to worry too much about where the current boundaries are round Middlesbrough.
So I think the remaining disagreement essentially comes down to whether you carve up City of Durham or merge Bishop Auckland with NW Durham. I can see why you've done the latter, but I think my version actually reflects most of the existing seats better, whereas your West Durham seems unwieldy to me.
Blaydon and Hexham certainly seems more sensible than Hexham and Cramlington, though the cries of outrage from the two incumbents would be a wonder to behold! The price is the disruption of North Tyneside. I wonder how much notice the Commission will take of local authority boundaries and existing constituencies, including those with electorates within the limits.
Have just seen a couple of ukpollingreport comments suggesting a Berwick and Hexham seat. And these seems to be serious comments as well, believe it or not.
These people have obviously never travelled through Northumberland in their lives, or have much idea of what the geography of this seat would consist of. Morpeth being part of the Berwick-Upon-Tweed seat makes much more sense.
Last Edit: Mar 20, 2016 15:53:40 GMT by thirdchill
A conservative who has always lived in labour areas.
Having looked at both ways of splitting Durham, there's not a lot to choose between them, it seems to me. Can't see any real alternatives, unless Darlington is split. But the Commission surprised me last time....................
I wanted to avoid crossing the Tyne in the Met area - I think the attached works quite well:
Teeside the same as everyone else. Detail on Tyne & Wear:
Recognising that neither Hexham nor Consett might be quite ready for this, here is an alternative for the middle part of the region that is more disruptive overall and I think is less elegant but might be less controversial:
My plans for North East England (with map attached).
1. Berwick, Morpeth & Ashington. The Northumberland wards of Berwick East/North/West with Ords, Norham & Islandshires, Bamburgh, Longhoughton (half), Alnwick, Amble West with Winkworth, Amble, Druridge Bay, Pegshill, Lynemouth, Morpeth Kirkhill/North/Stobhill, Newbiggin Central & East, Seaton with Newbiggin West, College Hirst, Ashington Central, Haydon, and Bothan. Electorate: 77,526 (estimate).
2. Blyth Valley. The Northumberland wards of Hartley, Holywell, Seghill with Seaton Delaval, Cramlington East/Eastfield/North/South East/Village/West, Newsham, South Blyth, Wensleydale, Plassey, Isabella, Croft, Cowpen, Kitty Brewster, Bedlington Central/East/West, Sleekburn, and Stakeford. Electorate: 76,694.
3. Hexham. The Northumberland wards of Longhoughton (half), Bywell, Stocksfield & Broomhaugh, Prudhoe North/South, Ponteland East & Stannington/North/South with Heddon/West, Humshaugh, Hayshon & Hadrian, Bellingham, Rothbury, Longhorsley, Wooler, Choppington, and Shilbottle. Electorate: 78,226 (estimate).
4. Wallsend. Same boundaries as North Tyneside; name has been changed since it only covers half of the North Tyneside area. Electorate: 76,427.
5. Tynemouth. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 74,618.
6. Darlington. The entire district of Darlington. Electorate: 74,929.
7. Redcar. As the current Redcar constituency plus the Redcar & Cleveland wards of Guisborough and Saltburn. Electorate: 74,201.
8. Middlesbrough. As the current Middlesbrough constituency plus the wards of Marton East, Ladgate, and Hedlington. Electorate: 73,851.
9. Thornaby. All Redcar & Cleveland wards not in Redcar, the Middlesbrough wards of Nunthorpe, Marton West, Coulby Newham, and Stainton & Thornton, and the Stockton wards of Ingleby Barwick East/West, Yarm, Village, and Stainsby Hill. Electorate: 75,453.
10. Stockton-On-Tees. The Stockton wards of Eaglescliffe, Western Parishes, Parkfield & Oxbridge, Mandale & Victoria, Stockton Town Centre,Newtown, Fairfield, Grangefield, Hartburn, Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree, Norton North/South/West, Roseworth, and Hardwick. Electorate: 75,700.
11. Hartlepool. The entire district of Hartlepool plus the Durham ward of Blackhalls. Electorate: 74,302.
12. Sedgefield. All Stockton wards not included in either Stockton-On-Tees or Thornaby, and also the Durham wards of Sedgefield, Aycliffe East/North & Middridge/West, Chilton, Ferryhill, and Shildon & Dene Valley. Electorate: 75,372.
13. Bishop Auckland. The current Bishop Auckland constituency minus Shildon & Dene Valley ward but plus Tow Law, Crook, and Willington & Hunwick wards. Electorate: 73,979.
14. Easington. The current Easington constituency minus Blackhall ward, but plus the Durham wards of Wingate and Trindon & Thornley and the Sunderland ward of Hetton. Electorate: 76,117.
15. Durham. As the current Durham constituency plus the wards of Esh & Witton Gilbert and Bishop Middleham & Cornforth. Electorate: 73,596.
16. Chester-Le-Street. As the current Durham North constituency minus Tanfield ward but plus the Durham wards of Lanchester and Weardale and the Gateshead ward of Birtley. Electorate: 76,576.
17. Consett & Blaydon. The Durham wards of Bernfieldside, Consett North/South, Delves Lane, Leadgate & Medomsley, and Burnopfield & Dipton, plus the Gateshead wards of Chopwell & Rowlands Gill, Winlaton & High Spen, Crawcrook & Greenside, Ryton, Crookhill & Stella, and Blaydon. Electorate: 73,836.
18. Sunderland Central. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 71,232.
19. South Shields. As the current South Shields constituency plus the wards of Boldon and Cleadon & East Boldon. Electorate: 77,467.
20. Houghton & Sunderland Outer. The Sunderland wards of Copt Hill, Houghton, Doxford, Silkworth, St Chad's, Sandhill, St Anne's, Castle, and Redhill. Electorate: 73,501.
21. Washington & Gateshead South. The Sunderland wards of Washington Central/East/North/South/West and Shiny Row, plus the Gateshead wards of Chowdene, Low Fell, and Lamesley. Electorate: 72,946.
22. Jarrow & Gateshead East. The Gateshead wards of Hebburn North/South, Monkton, Primrose, Bede, Pelaw & Heworth, Feldgate & Hedworth, Wardley & Lean Lane, Windy Nook & Whiteheels, Felling, Deckham, and High Fell. Electorate: 74,817.
23. Tyne Bridge & Gateshead West. The Gateshead wards of Whickham North, Whickham South & Sunnside, Dunston Hill & Whickham East, Dunston & Heams, Lobley Hill & Bensham, Saltwell and Bridges, plus the Newcastle-upon-Tyne wards of Westgate, Elswick, Ouseburn, Byker, and Wingrove. Electorate: 73,822
24. Newcastle-upon-Tyne West. The Newcastle-upon-Tyne wards of Castle, Woolsington, Kenton, Westerhope, Blakelaw, Newburn, Lemington, Denton, Fenham, and Benwell & Scotswood. Electorate: 75,557.
25. Newcastle-upon-Tyne East. The Newcastle-upon-Tyne wards of Walker, Walkergate, South Heaton, North Heaton, Dene, North Jesmond, South Jesmond, West Gosforth, East Gosforth, Parklands, and Fawdon. Electorate: 73,649.
The constituencies that disappear are: Gateshead, Wansbeck, Newcastle Central, Blaydon, North West Durham, and Stockton North. The Sedgefield constituency detailed here also bears little resemblance to the current Sedgefield constituency.
I agree with those seeking to avoid a 'Tyne Bridge' seat in the heart of Newcastle and Gateshead, but I don't think this necessarily entails linking Hexham with bits of County Durham, &c.
Instead I suggest linking the four western wards of Gateshead with four wards of Northumberland (Prudhoe N & S, Bywell, Ponteland S with Heddon) and four wards of Newcastle (the three big relatively rural wards plus Westerhope). This gives an electorate of 72228. It's not a particularly pretty seat and it's a pity about dividing Ponteland (although only by hiving off part of the southern fringe, the main part of the town stays in a Northumberland seat). But it supplies the necessary Tyne crossing in a much less disruptive place (and there are three bridges across the Tyne within the seat (Prudhoe, Wylam, Newburn), so communications should be OK). I'm not sure what to call it; I have 'Prudhoe and Ryton' as a working name.
This leaves the rest of Northumberland to get 3 seats (I have Hexham 72712, Blyth 71191, Berwick & Morpeth 73286 but the wards are nice and small so other permutations are possible); the rest of Newcastle divides beautifully into East (72843) and West (76904); and the rest of Gateshead plus South Tyneside falls neatly into 3 (Gateshead W (77126), Gateshead E & Jarrow (74238), S Shields (77467)).