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Post by greenchristian on Jan 15, 2016 21:43:52 GMT
We've got six coming up next week:
Hertfordshire CC, Bushey North - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
St Helens MB, Thatto Heath - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton North & East - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green
Southwark LB, Faraday - Labour resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, All People, Ind
Thanet DC, Newington - UKIP resigned -7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, 2 Ind
Wealden DC, Crowborough East - Conservative died - 3 Candidates: Con, Lab, LD
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 17, 2016 18:08:58 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2016 11:49:03 GMT
Contrary to the profile for Bushey North there are not all that many Jews in this part of Bushey nor is it all that solidly a middle class area. The East side of St James is dominated by council built housing (the old St James East ward was around 45% council housing in 1981 and some of the most affluent owner occupied streets were moved to Bushey Park in 1999). Meanwhile the somewhat detached Bushey Mill area is largely blue collar too. There used to be a lot of print workers living there and I would say skilled working class and 'white van man' is the dominant demographic. The old Mill ward used to vote Labour before Michael Colne turned it into a Liberal (or personal) fief. The area around The Avenue (pictured) and Grange Road is very affluent (and quite Jewish) but this is a relatively small part of the division overall and is atypical. It remains to be seen how safely Tory this area will be long-term. Strong performances by Independent candidates in recent district elections (in Bushey North ward) reveal that there is a large natural non-Tory vote. Up until a few years ago the Lib Dems were able to monopolise this, keeping the Labour vote artificially low. Labour rather than the Tories have been the main gainers from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote in St James in particular, though its doubtful they could ever be strong enough to win barring 1995 style results. UKIP has at least some potential in the Mill and Moatfield areas. And of course there is some potential for the Lib Dem vote to bounce back a bit if they could regain even a fraction of the organisational strength they had here until recently.
On a personal note I've just recalled that this is the location of my first electoral activity as I canvassed for the Tories in the then St James West ward back in 1984. It is also the location of my last electoral activity, on Saturday (by which I mean most recent, not God willing my last ever)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 19, 2016 4:21:27 GMT
Not very useful given Andrew's previews, but...
Bushey North - Hertfordshire CC - Steve O’Brien MBE (Conservative) died.
2013: Con 995, UKIP 524, Lab 437, LD 321
2009: Con 1510, LD 1257, Grn 277, Lab 234
2005: LD 2559, Con 1807, Lab 876, Grn 223
David Hoy (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Shailain Shah (Liberal Democrats)
Jane West (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Seamus Williams (Labour Party)
Thatto Heath - St Helens MBC - Sheila Seddon (Labour) died. She was first elected in 1999.
Jan 2016 - May 2016 term.
2015: Lab 3757, UKIP 871, Con 740, Grn 351
2014: Lab 1510, UKIP 483, Con 194, Grn 140, LD 85, BNP 51
2012: Lab 1857, Grn 187, Con 178, BNP 136, LD 124
2011: Lab 2409, Con 395, LD 282
2010: Lab 2995, LD 1071, Con 684, BNP 349
2008: Lab 1328, LD 581, Con 301, BNP 284
2007: Lab 1274, LD 794, Con 201, BNP 187, Community Action 180
2006: Lab 1308, LD 453, Community Action 363, Con 217
2004: Lab 1406/1351/1139, LD 713/502/380, UKIP 429, Con 326
Nova Charlton (Labour Party)
Damien Clarke (Green Party)
Lisa Mackarell (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Alastair Sutcliffe (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Hamilton North & East - South Lanarkshire - Lynn Adams (SNP) died. She was also a publican in Hamilton.
2012: Lab 1037/794, SNP 945/776, Con 430, Ind 141, Grn 133 (elected: Lab, SNP, Lab on 5th count; final count: SNP 1044/862, Lab 892 for 2 seats)
2007: Lab 1335/1221, SNP 1769, Con 917, Ind 214/190 (elected: SNP, Lab, Lab on 4th count; final count: Lab 1456/1305, Con 1112 for 2 seats)
Stephanie Callaghan (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Lyndsay Clelland (Scottish Labour Party)
Steven Hannigan (Scottish Green Party)
James Mackay (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Norman Rae (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Faraday - Southwark LBC - Dan Garfield (Labour) resigned after being convicted of assaulting his wife.
2014: Lab 1590/1567/1508, Grn 302/262/251, Con 245/216/210, All People’s Party 171/163/124, LD 163/139/106, TUSC 113
2010: Lab 2696/2682/2450, LD 869/704/654, Con 547/542/444, Grn 293/255, ED 157
2006: Lab 1809/1728/1641, LD 870/870/839, Respect 359, Ind 219/207, Con 210/176/168, Grn 149/145/134
2002: Lab 1301/1220/1198, LD 1128/1114/1079, Ind 349/313, Con 96/80/71, Grn 94/92/74
David Furze (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Nick Hooper (Green Party)
Samantha Jury-Dada (Labour Party)
Alhaji Kanumansa (All People’s Party)
Lauren Pemberton-Nelson (Liberal Democrat)
Dean Porter (Independent)
Toby Prescott (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
All People’s Party was created by a Labour member failing to get selected to contest Bedmondsey and Old Southwark.
Newington - Thanet DC - Vince Munday (UKIP) resigned due to moving to Thailand with his wife. Farage had personally apologised to them after Janice Atkinson called his wife “a ting tong from somewhere”.
2015: UKIP 884/845, Lab 728/713, Con 390/363
2011: Lab 705/702, Con 370/351
2007: Lab 471/438, Ramsgate First 268/196, Con 208/197, UKIP 116
2003: Lab 532/498, Ind 235, Con 144/140
Grahame Birchall (Independent)
Karen Constantine (The Labour Party Candidate)
Adam Dark (The Conservative Party)
Ian Driver (The Green Party)
Alan Hodder (Independent)
Duncan Smithson (UKIP)
Jordan Williams (Liberal Democrats Party)
Crowborough East - Wealden DC - Peter Cowie (Conservative) died. He was a former mayor of Crowborough.
2015: Con 1668/1526, LD 885
2011: Con 1026/950, Lab 549
2007: Con 581/565, LD 579/510, Grn 185/133
2003: LD 555/540, Con 422/408, Lab 118
Jane Clark (Liberal Democrats)
Philip Lunn (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Linda Scotson (Labour Party)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 20, 2016 3:24:58 GMT
Poor Crowborough East. Not only the area is full of scientologists, the Labour candidate believes than cancer is caused by sex and violence on TV.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 20, 2016 7:25:37 GMT
Poor Crowborough East. Not only the area is full of scientologists, the Labour candidate believes than cancer is caused by sex and violence on TV. And in treating brain tumours with oxygen tanks. |
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Post by maxque on Jan 20, 2016 7:52:57 GMT
Poor Crowborough East. Not only the area is full of scientologists, the Labour candidate believes than cancer is caused by sex and violence on TV. And in treating brain tumours with oxygen tanks. From what I read, it's rather with stays in an hyperbaric chamber. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 20, 2016 13:54:15 GMT
"fissiparous" - excellent  |
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Post by Robert on Jan 21, 2016 8:42:40 GMT
Further to Andrew's (as ever) excellent preview, the Aylesbury Estate is probably notable for a visit made 18 years ago and its current state. On becoming Prime Minister, Tony Blair made his first speech here, to highlight the need for urban regeneration. 18 years on the estate is, finally, being emptied. One, smaller, block has been replaced and one of the bigger blocks (as shown in Andrew's picture) is now completely empty and a further one virtually so. (Turnout will be low)
The LD candidate makes the point that she was formally a tenant in one of these blocks. The Tory candidate comes from a local family and is notable for being a tube driver.
Given the strength of Labour, also with a local candidate, I would have expected them to use the by-election as a means of preparing for May's mayoral vote. This is just the sort of ward, with massive Labour strength but poor turnout, where I would have thought the by-election would have been used to build up postal votes, canvassing records etc. With all the new members we keep hearing about I am surprised by how little effort Labour has put in to the campaign. They will still win very easily.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 21, 2016 22:45:56 GMT
A parish result.
COTGRAVE Town Council, Ash Lea ward
Mileham, Judith Ann (Independent) 319
Stothard, Darren Thomas (Labour) 227
Independent gain from Labour
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Post by president1 on Jan 21, 2016 22:59:37 GMT
Thatto Heath (St Helens) vote result:
LAB: 964
UKIP: 182
CON: 147
GRN: 62
Thatto Heath (St Helens) result:
LAB: 71.1% (-3.8)
UKIP: 13.4% (+13.4)
CON: 10.8% (+3.7)
GRN: 4.6% (-3.0)
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Post by maxque on Jan 21, 2016 23:00:58 GMT
Thatto Heath, St Helens (change on 2015, post above me is change on 2012)
Lab 964 (71.1%; +5.4)
UKIP 182 (13.4%; -1.8)
Con 147 (10.8%; -2.1)
Grn 62 (4.6%; -1.5)
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Post by maxque on Jan 21, 2016 23:07:47 GMT
Result expected soon in Hamilton (S Lanarkshire).
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Post by president1 on Jan 21, 2016 23:08:19 GMT
Thatto Heath, St Helens (change on 2015, post above me is change on 2012) Lab 964 (71.1%; +5.4) UKIP 182 (13.4%; -1.8) Con 147 (10.8%; -2.1) Grn 62 (4.6%; -1.5) Apologies for any misunderstandings - was quoting from Britain Elects. Why would they quote % change from 2012? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 21, 2016 23:11:57 GMT
Thatto Heath, St Helens (change on 2015, post above me is change on 2012) Lab 964 (71.1%; +5.4) UKIP 182 (13.4%; -1.8) Con 147 (10.8%; -2.1) Grn 62 (4.6%; -1.5) Apologies for any misunderstandings - was quoting from Britain Elects. Why would they quote % change from 2012? The by election was to replace the councillor elected in 2012. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 21, 2016 23:14:04 GMT
SNP HOLD Hamilton North & East (South Lanarkshire).
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 21, 2016 23:16:48 GMT
Conservative HOLD Crowborough East (Wealden).
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Post by maxque on Jan 21, 2016 23:18:42 GMT
Conservative HOLD Crowborough East (Wealden). 63% for them. |
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 21, 2016 23:21:12 GMT
Hamilton N. & E. (South Lanarkshire) vote result:
SNP: 1089
LAB: 855
CON: 469
GRN: 83
LDEM: 45
Hamilton N. & E. (South Lanarkshire) first prefs:
SNP: 42.9% (+2.4)
LAB: 33.6% (-9.4)
CON: 18.5% (+8.4)
GRN: 3.3% (+0.1)
LDEM: 1.8% (+1.8)
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 21, 2016 23:24:56 GMT
Conservative HOLD Crowborough East (Wealden). 63% for them. Crowborough East (Wealden) vote result: CON: 517 LDEM: 198 LAB: 93 Crowborough East (Wealden) result: CON: 64.0% (-1.3) LDEM: 24.5% (-10.2) LAB: 11.5% (+11.5) |
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