The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 22, 2016 10:57:33 GMT
Thatto Heath (St Helens) vote result: LAB: 964 UKIP: 182 CON: 147 GRN: 62 Thatto Heath (St Helens) result: LAB: 71.1% (-3.8) UKIP: 13.4% (+13.4) CON: 10.8% (+3.7) GRN: 4.6% (-3.0) Hmmmm! 3,8% swing Labour to Conservative. No it isn't, as you would know if you had read the whole thread before posting  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2016 11:02:42 GMT
If the nationwide swing from Labour to Conservative from 2012 is kept down to 3.8% in the May local elections, it would be regarded as a good result for Labour. It would mean Labour was in the lead on a national equivalent vote; current polls are showing something like a 9% swing to the Conservatives.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2016 11:05:49 GMT
Hmmmm! 3,8% swing Labour to Conservative. No it isn't, as you would know if you had read the whole thread before posting Yes it is and I had read it all. The vacancy was to fill from 2012 so the comparison is with that election if it is to have any sense. Just as one goes from GE to GE with the swing for a Corby and no use of the intervening by-election figure. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 22, 2016 11:10:55 GMT
These things are normally calculated from the most recent contest in said division and always have been.
Other swings can be cited, but are ultimately of secondary importance.
You know this and so does Britain Elects (a very useful resource generally) which makes their practice here in half/third-elected councils all the more annoying.
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Post by marksenior on Jan 22, 2016 16:24:13 GMT
Minor result Newhaven TC Valley ward LD hold
LD 213 UKIP 90 Con 82 Lab 60 Ind 14 Green 11
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2016 18:36:03 GMT
Kintbury Parish Council by-election
Jon Hemphill (non-desc) 341 (91.67%)
Andrew Stott (BPP) 31 ( 8.33%)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2016 19:34:33 GMT
Kintbury Parish Council by-election John Hemphill (non-desc) 341 (91.67%) Andrew Stott (BPP) 31 ( 8.33%) Just realised that was my 4000th post; I usually create a poll on such occasions. At least I reported an iconic one. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 22, 2016 19:40:51 GMT
Kintbury Parish Council by-election John Hemphill (non-desc) 341 (91.67%) Andrew Stott (BPP) 31 ( 8.33%) Just realised that was my 4000th post; I usually create a poll on such occasions. At least I reported an iconic one. Congratulations! I'm some way further behind... |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jan 22, 2016 22:44:12 GMT
Pleased with the Hamilton North & East result. And while your forum owner lived there for three years, it was this contributor's home for 15. Sadly I only ever got to vote in the old Hamilton Centre/North ward once.
The Conservative and Labour share changes are even more interesting though. Is this the first evidence that the Tories will make strides towards becoming the main opposition? Health warning for low turnout (20.22%).
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Post by justin124 on Jan 23, 2016 0:22:50 GMT
The swing to the SNP here was quite low by recent standards. What might be happening is that the SNP are losing votes to the Tories whilst gaining from Labour.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 23, 2016 6:32:58 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now.
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Post by marksenior on Jan 23, 2016 8:58:37 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now. There is no risk of the Conservatives overtaking Labour and moving into 2nd place in Scotland . There has been a substantial number of Scottish by elections since May and they do show a modest but steady increase in the Conservative vote share from around 10% to 14% since 2012 whereas the Labour vote is down from 39% to 26% it remains nearly twice that of the Conservatives |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 23, 2016 9:11:23 GMT
The Conservative vote in 2012 was unusually low compared with 2007, so it may just be returning to its natural level.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 23, 2016 10:37:39 GMT
Re the better Tory showing in 2007 - surprised nobody has yet mentioned who the candidate then was (though andrewteale has on his blog) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2016 11:19:17 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now. There is no risk of the Conservatives overtaking Labour and moving into 2nd place in Scotland . There has been a substantial number of Scottish by elections since May and they do show a modest but steady increase in the Conservative vote share from around 10% to 14% since 2012 whereas the Labour vote is down from 39% to 26% it remains nearly twice that of the Conservatives The Conservatives have a real chance of overtaking Labour in Scotland in terms of FPTP seats in May; but not on the lists. That's it in a nutshell. |
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Post by justin124 on Jan 23, 2016 12:04:33 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now. I suspect that in the past Tory voters here have voted SNP on a tactical basis in the hope of beating Labour. Now that the dynamics have changed many of those voters have gone back home to the Tories. |
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Post by afleitch on Jan 23, 2016 14:01:55 GMT
Re the better Tory showing in 2007 - surprised nobody has yet mentioned who the candidate then was (though andrewteale has on his blog) What. This old thing?  |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 23, 2016 19:34:21 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now. Pro-independence right-wingers? afleitch like voters, I suppose. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 23, 2016 20:35:01 GMT
Why on earth would SNP voters go Tory. Looks more like the unionist vote is moving more and more in the Conservatives' favour. Polling for May bears this out, the SNP have been hovering in the mid 50s for some time now, the real movement has been between Labour and the Conservatives, with Labour at risk of falling into third place in Scotland now. I suspect that in the past Tory voters here have voted SNP on a tactical basis in the hope of beating Labour. Now that the dynamics have changed many of those voters have gone back home to the Tories. Tory voters don't normally vote tactically at all, especially in STV elections (there is no point). The exception would be in one or two SNP/LD marginals in Scotland in May 2015 when they would have voted LD. |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 23, 2016 20:42:06 GMT
I suspect that in the past Tory voters here have voted SNP on a tactical basis in the hope of beating Labour. Now that the dynamics have changed many of those voters have gone back home to the Tories. Tory voters don't normally vote tactically at all, especially in STV elections (there is no point). The exception would be in one or two SNP/LD marginals in Scotland in May 2015 when they would have voted LD. There was strong evidence of tactical voting by Conservatives in seats that were Liberal Democrat vs. Labour contests; the Conservative vote share dropped quite sharply in Hornsey & Wood Green, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Cambridge, Birmingham Yardley, and Bradford East (all lost by the Lib Dems to Labour). This also happened in Leeds North West and Sheffield Hallam (which the Lib Dems held against a strong Labour advance). |
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