Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 19, 2016 8:15:14 GMT
Apr 19, 2016 1:12:55 GMT @szczecinianin said:
Safe seats are by nature 'undemocratic' and rapidly turn into 'rotten boroughs'. UKIP are extremely unlikely to win, but the demographics are near perfect for them. One to watch for the future. Labour has lost its connection with the white Working Class. I can only see it being successful in metropolitan areas in future. Hopefully, a tipping point will be reached as happened in Scotland. Plaid will never be successful outside the Welsh speaking areas. Like Labour, it's a Middle-Class party, with little grasp of bread-and-butter issues.
I don't accept that safe seats rapidly become rotten boroughs, largely because the latter term doesn't have any non-pejorative meaning - it's just complaining, not a substantive criticism.
I also don't accept that the demographics are perfect for UKIP, given that UKIP's electoral performance has generally been notably uniform (poor with ethnic minorities and in university towns, better with the retired but getting 10-20% with just about every other group). Anyway, UKIP's big problem under FPTP isn't with their supporters, it's with their unpopularity amongst non-supporters, making it harder for them to monopolise all opposition votes in the manner normally required to win a by-election.
And being lectured on 'bread and butter' issues by a kipper never ceases to be amusing.