Ogmore

[pembspolitic]

People here will vote four times here? (PCC, Const, List and this By-election) Anyone think this could create a slightly unusual result here, people feeling silly putting 4X by Labour or a feeling that they might give another party a chance with one of their votes? Ukip maybe? Plaid on the list? Just wondering..

[Antiochian]

UKIP candidate for the Assembly seat, Chris Gillibrand, has apparently already bailed in a ding-dong with Nigel...over him fraternising with George Galloway

order-order.com/2016/03/04/ukip-candidate-quits-over-galloway-pope-farage/

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2016 10:38:41 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Mar 4, 2016 10:24:40 GMT justlooking said:

Has anything actually been set as regards the date for this by election?

Huw Irranca-Davies is still the MP; he has to resign first (Steward of the Manor of Northstead on the usual alternation principle).

Presumably both Ogmore and Sheffield byelections will be held on 5 May. For polling on 5 May, the writ would have to be moved on 5 April at the latest; this is a recess day, so the writ may be moved instead on Maundy Thursday 24 March which is the last sitting day before the Easter recess.

Irranca-Davies has tweeted that voting against the budget was on of his last acts as MP so obviously gearing up for a 5th May election.

Abi (short for Abigail, I presume) Thomas selected for Plaid Cymru

[LDCaerdydd]

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Confirmation in the Votes and Proceedings. Writ moved this morning so polling will be 5 May.

[LDCaerdydd]

Lib Dem candidate Janet Ellard
www.welshlibdems.wales/janet_ellard_selected_as_welsh_lib_dem_ogmore_by_election_candidate

[wjm2000]

Turns out Alex Williams, a local town councillor, was selected as the Conservative candidate four days ago.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SOPN here (word doc): www1.bridgend.gov.uk/media/324919/parliamentary-statement-of-persons-nominated-ogmore.docx

Just five candidates

DAVIES, Glenda - UKIP Wales
ELLARD, Janet - Welsh Liberal Democrats/Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru
ELMORE, Christopher Philip James - Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru
THOMAS, Abi - Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
WILLIAMS, Alex - Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru

[The Bishop]

Still a slight surprise there is no Green candidate, maybe.

[LDCaerdydd]

Apr 8, 2016 8:45:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

SOPN here (word doc): www1.bridgend.gov.uk/media/324919/parliamentary-statement-of-persons-nominated-ogmore.docx

Just five candidates

DAVIES, Glenda - UKIP Wales

Would appear also to be the last minute UKIP Candidate for Aberavon in the Assembly too.

[Penddu]

UKIP candidate wont get elected in either seat, but what would happen if she was in both? Would she need to resign one??

[maxque]

Apr 16, 2016 2:26:58 GMT Penddu said:

UKIP candidate wont get elected in either seat, but what would happen if she was in both? Would she need to resign one??

Yes, she would need to resign one and cause yet another by-election.

[Deleted]

Apr 16, 2016 6:24:05 GMT maxque said:

Apr 16, 2016 2:26:58 GMT Penddu said:

UKIP candidate wont get elected in either seat, but what would happen if she was in both? Would she need to resign one??

Yes, she would need to resign one and cause yet another by-election.

Absurd that she stood in both then.

[Deleted]

Interestingly, both Green and TUSC stood in 2015.

[Deleted]

Glenda Davies is obviously unlikely to come first in either, but must be second favourite in both. How can she effectively challenge if (a) has to split time between two constituencies and (b) would have to answer question as to which of the two she'd resign if she won both?

[East Anglian Lefty]

All that assumes she's there to effectively challenge. She's there to be the candidate.

[Deleted]

Apr 19, 2016 0:39:07 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

All that assumes she's there to effectively challenge. She's there to be the candidate.

Of course. But to effectively challenge you have to at least pretend you think you are in with a chance. If UKIP have put her in for two seats, and she would have to resign one, then clearly even they don't think she has a realistic chance of winning.

[Deleted]

It's hardly 'democracy' when even the most likely runner up sees no real prospect of actually winning.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Yes, it is. It's a very safe seat, of the sort that can only be lost when Labour is doing extremely badly and there is a challenging party with a broad coalition of support. The necessary conditions don't appear to apply, so it's unlikely to be lost. That doesn't make it undemocratic.

[Deleted]

Apr 19, 2016 1:00:44 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Yes, it is. It's a very safe seat, of the sort that can only be lost when Labour is doing extremely badly and there is a challenging party with a broad coalition of support. The necessary conditions don't appear to apply, so it's unlikely to be lost. That doesn't make it undemocratic.

Safe seats are by nature 'undemocratic' and rapidly turn into 'rotten boroughs'. UKIP are extremely unlikely to win, but the demographics are near perfect for them. One to watch for the future. Labour has lost its connection with the white Working Class. I can only see it being successful in metropolitan areas in future. Hopefully, a tipping point will be reached as happened in Scotland. Plaid will never be successful outside the Welsh speaking areas. Like Labour, it's a Middle-Class party, with little grasp of bread-and-butter issues.