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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 18, 2016 1:39:08 GMT
To prove it, watch this (also because it's just about the most squirmingly embarrassing family gathering ever, and it makes both of the candidates sound like they are running for the Michael O'Halloran Articulacy Trophy): Oh dear... Still, it's them or a fascist. Lesser of two evils and all that! I think you'll find in Ireland each constituency elects a number of TDs and from a variety of parties, it's not either/or in most places. And certainly not Kerry. And besides despite how much I dislike SF I can't really call them fascist, for a start they are better on women's rights than FF or FG or the three other main parties in Stormont and have never really engaged in anti-immigrant rhetoric, which still basically doesn't exist in Irish political discourse. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 18, 2016 2:07:50 GMT
Oh dear... Still, it's them or a fascist. Lesser of two evils and all that! I think you'll find in Ireland each constituency elects a number of TDs and from a variety of parties, it's not either/or in most places. And certainly not Kerry. And besides despite how much I dislike SF I can't really call them fascist, for a start they are better on women's rights than FF or FG or the three other main parties in Stormont and have never really engaged in anti-immigrant rhetoric, which still basically doesn't exist in Irish political discourse. I was responding to people saying that if Danny Healy-Rae gets in it wil, be at the cost of the Shinner. Well, the way their party functions and their relationship to organised crime, 'community justice' and the fact you have an essentially unrepentant terrorist as a leader tends me to lean towards fascist tendencies plus the experience of people I know and trust who have dealt with them up close in Northern Ireland. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 18, 2016 3:44:44 GMT
, and it makes both of the candidates sound like they are running for the Michael O'Halloran Articulacy Trophy): OMG is that a normal Kerry accent? It sounds quite different from a normal South/West Irish accent. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 18, 2016 3:50:40 GMT
Presumably there is no relation between Jackie Healy-Rae  and Gerry Healy  |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 18, 2016 6:00:25 GMT
, and it makes both of the candidates sound like they are running for the Michael O'Halloran Articulacy Trophy): OMG is that a normal Kerry accent? It sounds quite different from a normal South/West Irish accent. That's quite mild. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 18, 2016 7:38:20 GMT
I'd rather vote for Ivana Bacik. What awful tossers.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 18, 2016 18:13:30 GMT
The Healy-Rae campaign is spreading further and further afield:
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 18, 2016 18:39:13 GMT
I'd rather vote for Ivana Bacik. What awful tossers. I would happily vote for them to represent any constituency other than the one that I lived in. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Feb 19, 2016 19:45:52 GMT
And besides despite how much I dislike SF I can't really call them fascist, for a start they are better on women's rights than FF or FG or the three other main parties in Stormont and have never really engaged in anti-immigrant rhetoric, which still basically doesn't exist in Irish political discourse. What? For decades SF's slogan was "Brits Out!". How is that not racist? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2016 20:34:06 GMT
And besides despite how much I dislike SF I can't really call them fascist, for a start they are better on women's rights than FF or FG or the three other main parties in Stormont and have never really engaged in anti-immigrant rhetoric, which still basically doesn't exist in Irish political discourse. What? For decades SF's slogan was "Brits Out!". How is that not racist? For starters the British are as white as the Irish, so it can not be "racist", and secondly the slogan referred to the British state and it's military, not civilian Brits living in NI. |
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 19, 2016 21:59:18 GMT
I was responding to people saying that if Danny Healy-Rae gets in it wil, be at the cost of the Shinner. Well, the way their party functions and their relationship to organised crime, 'community justice' and the fact you have an essentially unrepentant terrorist as a leader tends me to lean towards fascist tendencies plus the experience of people I know and trust who have dealt with them up close in Northern Ireland. All that is true but that doesn't make them fascist. Provisional SF/IRA have always been a hard left organisation. To call them fascist simply because of their nasty and murderous thuggishness would be both inaccurate and unnecessarily insulting to fascists. Indeed, contrary to what many seem to believe fascist is not a synonym for detestable scum. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 19, 2016 22:12:16 GMT
All that is true but that doesn't make them fascist. Provisional SF/IRA have always been a hard left organisation. Always? Remember the difference between the Stickies and the Provos has up to now been 15 to 25 years. (Which would mean this Dail could be their chance for government.) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2016 22:27:43 GMT
For starters the British are as white as the Irish, so it can not be "racist", and secondly the slogan referred to the British state and it's military, not civilian Brits living in NI. Tempting Godwin, most Ashkenazi Jews are as white as most Germans. Well, setting aside whether that is accurate (and I doubt that, Jews were usually darker than Germans + "whiteness" as a social construct is not just a matter of skin colour, but also facial features and many Askenazi Jews had Semitic traits) the Nazis constructed a racial hierarchy among different kinds of Europeans, which in itself makes their antisemitism racist. The Basque nationalists constructed a similar distinction to the un-pure Spaniards mixed with Moors (and Jews). Irish Republicans have never constructed a similar racial hierarchy. Using racist for Irish or Scottish animosity and/or hatred towards the English is inaccurate and a bit silly. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 19, 2016 22:48:00 GMT
The splitting off of the Provos was largely a reaction to the hard-left turn the Stickies took. Mostly they were against the idea of substituting class conflict for ethnic conflict, but they were also much more actively religious, which in Ireland normally equates with a more right-wing position.
That said, their main interest was in killing people, so focusing too much upon their ideology does rather miss the point.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 19, 2016 23:04:41 GMT
I'm well aware of your concern for the good name of fascists. But that wasn't actually the question you asked.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 19, 2016 23:33:20 GMT
Corporatism, obsession with national renewal, possession of a militia, a love of violence to achieve political aims, a narrative of how love of the nation replaces religion.
If they weren't bracketed as left-wing by their fellow travellers, they'd be considered fascists.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 19, 2016 23:53:17 GMT
Corporatism, obsession with national renewal, possession of a militia, a love of violence to achieve political aims, a narrative of how love of the nation replaces religion. If they weren't bracketed as left-wing by their fellow travellers, they'd be considered fascists. Well exactly. I used fascist in its true meaning as above, not as shorthand (FFS I find that insulting that anyone would think I would). Just remember @pjones where fascism came from, better than that read a book about it because you probably don't have a clue. Oh and just as a little pointer, overt racism didn't have any part in original fascism because the nationalism overrode all considerations on that angle. |
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Post by irish observer on Feb 20, 2016 0:06:58 GMT
Moving to Munster.
Clare (4): De Valera County is unchanged. Pat Breen and Timmy Dooley both have safe seats for FG and FF. FF are running 2 additional candidates 1, Clare Colleran, is a sister of a prominent Irish journalist and no fan of FF and Malty McDonagh up until recently was the GAA County Board Chairman. Between the two I think they could get a seat. Michael McNamara of Labour is toast here. I can see his elimination plus the elimination of the third FG candidate helping Joe Carey. Danger to Carey and 2nd FF is Dr. Ann Norton who was elected an Independent Cllr in 2014. She will poll well and I think she could spring a surprise like Bhamjee or McNamara. Absence of rural doctors is an issue in constituencies like Clare and could see FG losing a seat here. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1IND.
Limerick County (3): This constituency is now essentially re-constituted containing the old Limerick west territory. FF are only running one candidate, Niall Collins, too cautious in my view and he will top the poll. Tom Neville, son of the retiring popular Dan Neville, a notable campaigner for suicide awareness, will take the second seat for FG. Patrick O'Donovan is in a tight fight for the last seat. At this moment in time I am calling it for Emmett O'Brien an Independent Cllr from Adare who was FF. He will be helped by transfers from O'Donoghue, a former FF and now Independent Cllr. Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1IND.
Limerick City (4): Michael Noonan and Willie O'Dea both have safe seats for FG and FF. On a sombre note two nights ago a FF Cllr in Limerick died suddenly while canvassing with O'Dea. Maurice Quinlivan of Sinn Féin has been plugging away and the party now has enough votes to get a seat. I am giving the last seat to Jan O'Sullivan. There will be significant AAA transfers and Green transfers too which will favour her over Kieran O'Donnell who will lose out. Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1LAB.
Kerry (5): Kerry has been merged together as a 5 seater with the portion of north west Limerick going back to Limerick County. Michael Healy-Rae will top the poll and both Jimmy Deenihan and Martin Ferris have safe seats for FG and SF. The re-alignment plus Fleming's retirement ensures there will be a FF seat and this should go to John Brassil who was Chair of Kerry County Council last year. Arthur Spring is gone; Labour support outside of Tralee collapsed in 2014. I do not think there can be a 2nd Healy-Rae elected but the last seat will stay in south Kerry and at the moment I would favour Tom Sheahan from Dingle. Prediction: 2FG, 1SF, 1FF, 1IND.
Cork North-West (3): This constituency could be described as almost overwhelmingly rural but includes the commuter area of Ballincollig and market towns like Macroom and Kanturk and Millstreet which hosted Eurovision once. Michael Creed and Michael Moynihan both have safe seats for FG and FF. I would say that on balance Aine Collins should be favoured for a 2nd seat. Her main challenger is John Paul O'Shea, the current Mayor of Cork. I think this is too traditional a constituency and that Collins will hold. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF.
Cork South-West (3): This is Michael Collins country. Firstly Michael McCarthy is a goner for Labour. Jim Daly of FG is the most prominent and should hold. FF's Margaret Murphy O'Mahony should take the second seat from Bandon. She will benefit from transfers from her near neighbour Alan Coleman, a former FF Cllr. Noel Harrington, the second FG TD, should be the favourite for the last seat. His threat will be Independent Cllr Michael Collins, appropriately named for the constituency. However Labour transfers will assist Harrington in ensuring his election. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF
Cork South-Central (4): Now reduced from 5 to 4 the TD most affected by this was Jerry Buttimer who has lost his home base of Bishopstown to Cork North-Central. This is now difficult to call. Simon Coveney, Michael McGrath and Micheal Martin are all comparatively safe. I consider Ciaran Lynch gone as Labour were wiped out across the city in the 2014 locals. However historically there has always been a left wing seat here. I think had SF selected Chris O'Leary, the present Lord Mayor of Cork City, who used be Green be would unseat Buttimer. As it is I think Buttimer will hang on here. He can be thankful for the strong FG council base across the area. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG.
Cork North-Central (4): This seat remains a 4 seater but gains the Bishopstown area from Cork South-Central. I would give the first two seats to Billy Kelleher and Jonathan O'Brien of FF and SF. Dara Murphy will benefit from the addition of Bishopstown and can be expected to retain his seat. As with south of the river Lee I am predicting that Kathleen Lynch will lose her seat given the Labour cull in 2014. There will be SF transfers, WP, Independents and they will help elect Mick Barry the long-serving PBP/AAA Cllr. Prediction: 1FF, 1SF, 1FG, 1PBP/AAA.
Cork East (4): David Stanton will win the first seat here for FG. I would consider Sean Sherlock having a relatively safe seat given his Mallow base. Noel McCarthy has defected from Labour to join FG, this will likely affect the Labour vote somewhat but not in Mallow. FF were within a few hundred votes of a seat here in 2011. Kevin O'Keeffe has to be favoured for a seat. With McClellan's retirement and the SF resignations I think their seat is lost. From a geographical perspective I think Kieran McCarthy (ex SF and Cobh based) will take it. Tom Barry has caused controversy for FG and I think he is gone. Prediction: 1FG, 1LAB, 1FF, 1IND.
Waterford (4): This constituency now contains all of county Waterford. John Deasy will take the first seat for FG and the next 2 seats will be taken by John Halligan the Independent and David Cullinane of SF. Ciara Conway of Labour is gone here particularly over health issues. FF were close here in 2011 but got no transfers and are now running Mary Butler who is from west of the city. The Cllrs are assisting the campaign and it is between her and Paudie Coffey the Minister for Housing for the last seat. There has to be frank feck all social housing built over the past 5 years and with the burgeoning homelessness crisis I think he could be a high profile casualty of the election. Prediction: 1FG, 1IND, 1SF, 1FF.
Tipperary (5): A merger of the old Tipp North and Tipp South bar an area around Borrisokane gone to Nenagh and Waterford areas sent home to Waterford. Despite Tribunal issues Michael Lowry will be re-elected and his votes could be weighed. Seamus Healy of WUAG in Clonmel will also be re-elected. When SF are eliminated their transfers will elect him. There is a seat each here for FG and FF. Tom Hayes is the most likely incumbent to retain his seat. From where he is based he has no real challengers around the south west of the constituency. Noel Coonan is disadvantaged as Borrisokane and surrounding areas are very close to his home base. I'm told Jackie Cahill, the former ICMSA President, may prevail and take the FF seat. Will Alan Kelly retain his seat? He would be a spectacular casualty over water charges. I do not see 3 Independents getting elected here i.e. Mattie McGrath and on that basis I think Kelly will hold as I can't see any other likely winner. Prediction: 2IND, 1FG, 1FF, 1LAB.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 20, 2016 22:08:51 GMT
In the interest of balance, here's Danny Healy-Rae's campaign video. Watch out for a picture of him in his own Cap of Power, mentions of potholes and cameos by other members of the family:
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 21, 2016 2:30:43 GMT
Is Danny older than Michael?
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