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Post by irish observer on Feb 16, 2016 21:09:33 GMT
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Post by irish observer on Feb 16, 2016 23:51:52 GMT
Some constituency predictions.
Donegal (5): Now a 5 seater for the whole County bar the area around Ballyshannon and Bundoran which has been hived off by the Commission hereafter the B.C. and exiled into Sligo-Leitrim. The TD most disadvantaged by this is Thomas Pringle as he is from nearby Killybegs and was a Cllr for that LEA previously. Sinn Féin have a comfortable 2 seats. In addition Niamh Kennedy, a Cllr in Shane Ross' crowd is from Donegal town again in the same LEA in which Pringle lives. I questionhis appeal the further he goes outside of the old Donegal South-West. Padraig MacLochlainn is from Buncrana and also gets votes from Inishowen and Letterkenny. Doherty is from the Donegal Gaeltacht and will hope that the absence of Dinny McGinley will assist him. However, Pat the Cope is making a determined campaign to return to the Dáil, especially in light of 2014 and has large numbers out. I am also told he is being helped by the Blaneys in Fanad. I do not see SF having a third seat here. FG will scrape 1 seat through Joe McHugh, he's the only person who can say that if re-elected that he will be a Minister of State/Minister. Their other candidate is his near neighbour. Charlie McConalogue, the outgoing FF TD, can be assumed to have a good base in Inishowen. If he secures enough votes in Letterkenny then he will likely outlast Pringle for the last seat. Prediction: 2SF, 2FF, 1FG.
Cavan-Monaghan (4): Now a 4 seat constituency as part of rural west Cavan has been hived off by the B.C. and exiled into Sligo-Leitrim. The first 2 seats will be won by Caoihghín O Caoláin and Heather Humphreys. O Caoláin has topped the poll here since 1997 and will likely do so again. Heather Humphreys will also get a quota. She has inherited Seymour Crawford's vote, who she used work for and can expect promotion under a FG government. FF will win a seat and are running 3 candidates. Brendan Smith is the outgoing TD and former agriculture Minister, a decent man. Niamh Smyth is a very capable Cllr since 2009, a relative of Paddy Smyth the longest serving TD in history, and Mike Durkan who lives in Clones but who is not originally from the constituency. This will be between Smith and Smyth. SF hope that their Senator Kathryn Reilly, also from Cavan, will take the last seat here. She is very capable. However while he is a relatively quiet performer I think that the Humphreys surplus added together to the FF Cavan transfer will elect O'Reilly over Reilly. Prediction: 2FG, 1SF, 1FF.
Sligo-Leitrim (4): The one thing about this area is that Sligo and Leitrim are back together again as the locals wished. However the B.C. added on the additional territory as previously mentioned from SW Donegal and West Cavan. Leitrim can be assured of a TD and that will be Martin Kenny of SF who will replace Michael Colreavy. I would also consider Tony McLoughlin of FG to be safe though I heard he wasn't well recently. I think that John Perry's antics (which I admire in some way against his party hq) have hindered FG here and their efforts to get 2 seats. FF will win a seat here, they messed up badly in 2011 and it will probably be McSharry. Regarding the last seat I would call it at the moment for Marie Casserly who won a seat in Sligo town at the last locals as an Independent. I think Declan Bree has had his day and his transfers plus those of subsequent eliminations will keep her in the race. Prediction: 1FG, 1SF, 1FF, 1IND.
Roscommon-Galway (3): Misnamed by the B.C. this constituency comprises all of Roscommon and significant territory from North-East Galway including Ballinasloe town and rural population on the outskirts of Tuam. First of all Denis Naughten and Michael Fitzmaurice will both be elected in a canter. Fitsmaurice lives beside Williamstown now in the constituency and benefits most from the re-draw. Regarding the third seat on paper FF should take it easily. They had a very good elections in Roscommon in 2014 while FG were decimated. However there was an inordinate delay in picking a candidate, a nice guy, a long serving Cllr Eugene Murphy. Meanwhile to add to problems Shane Curran, a former GAA goalie, was added on a few weeks ago. Meanwhile FG have selected a young Cllr Maura Hopkins for some time now and I have to favour her at the moment. Prediction: 2 IND, 1FG.
Galway East (3): Changed by the B.C. as it has lost the area of Ballinasloe and the other territory that has gone in Roscommon-Galway. FG have 2 outgoing TDs; Ciaran Cannon, himself a former leader of the PDs and Paul Connaughton Jnr, son of Paul Connaughton. Connaughton has lost a lot of territory in the boundary review and while considered more high profile than Cannon I think this is a disadvantage to him. Flooding will affect the government here as this constituency was very badly affected by floods and there is anger about the response. As Cannon is from Loughrea though the affects of flooding will more likely damage him. FF will retain 1 seat. Colm Keaveney (who was Labour) from Tuam is running with Anne Rabbitte a Cllr from Portumna. How will Keaveney fare? I honestly don't know. I note it seems that Michael Kitt, who is retiring, is backing Rabbitte. She can expect to benefit from the elimination of Stroke Fahy who was once a Fianna Fáil Cllr, now an Independent, served a prison sentence in between. I think Keaveney will lose out. For the last seat I think Sean Canney has a very good chance. He is a brother in law of Paddy McHugh who was elected here in 2002-7 as an Independent. He polled very well in the locals also. Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1IND.
Galway West (5): Galway West remains a 5 seat constituency but gains the Ballinrobe territory from Mayo. This has persuaded FG's John O'Mahony to try and don the maroon jersey again. As their former football manager I think he will win a seat. Eamon O Cuiv will take the first seat for FF with his Connemara base. Noel Grealish has carved out a safe base over in Claregalway/Oranmore. Regarding the city I feel this is Catherine Connolly's time and she will defeat Derek Nolam of Labour. SF's Trevor O Clochartaigh will run close here and I understand he is doing well but I think he will miss out. I am saying that Sean Kyne will hold on for FG benefiting from their running mate's (Naughten) elimination from Galway city. FF have 2 good running mates with O Cuiv but I just don't think we can make it here. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF, 2IND.
Mayo (4): Michael Ring will top the poll and the Taoiseach will then get the second seat. Dara Calleary of FF has a safe seat in Ballina and should secure a quota. Michelle Mulherin, the third FG TD, is the most vulnerable. Had Michael Kilcoyne stood in Castlebar (Ind Cllr) I would have given him a seat. I am surprised he is not. Her challengers are Lisa Chambers of FF( Castlebar) and Rose Conway-Walsh of SF (Belmullet) who is effectively based on the Atlantic shore. Chambers will run her close but I think FG will take 3 seats in the end. Prediction: 3 FG, 1 FF.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2016 6:53:01 GMT
Re Mayo - doesn't the Taoiseach always top the poll in their own constituency? Would it be a big embarrassment for Kenny if he comes in behind his running mate? I get the feeling that Dame Enda has extremely thick skin. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 17, 2016 10:45:04 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better.
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 17, 2016 13:29:31 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better. I tend to agree but you might see a much higher level of transfers in this case than you would normally expect. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 17, 2016 13:37:04 GMT
I'm not sure the Healy-Raes have ever been described as balanced.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 17, 2016 18:51:01 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better. Here's the official Healy-Rae vote-balancing map. (Sorry about the orientation)  |
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Post by dizz on Feb 17, 2016 19:41:54 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better. Here's the official Healy-Rae vote-balancing map. (Sorry about the orientation) The green bit covers the local council area of Killarney where Danny is a local councillor www.irishtimes.com/news/elections/local-elections/kerry |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 17, 2016 19:47:45 GMT
You mean there is a Johnny Healy-Rae as well? |
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Post by dizz on Feb 17, 2016 19:59:02 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better. See the results of Dublin Central in 2007 as an example how surplus votes can transfer. Brady was the preferred Ahern transferee and leapfrogged the other FF candidate in the process. In short if the two Healy Raes get 37% of the vote then that should be enough. Better news is maybe the Healy Raes are eating into the Kerry North SF vote. We can only hope.  |
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Post by dizz on Feb 17, 2016 20:07:15 GMT
You mean there is a Johnny Healy-Rae as well? To be sure. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2016 20:20:36 GMT
The problem is that not all of Michael's surplus will transfer to Danny. To get both elected they really need to be balanced a lot better. See the results of Dublin Central in 2007 as an example how surplus votes can transfer. Brady was the preferred Ahern transferee and leapfrogged the other FF candidate in the process. In short if the two Healy Raes get 37% of the vote then that should be enough. Better news is maybe the Healy Raes are eating into the Kerry North SF vote. We can only hope. Is there any particular reason why they would be? They seem like local politicians for local people, so why would they appeal to people they don't already represent? I'm more inclined to think that it might just have been a bad poll. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 17, 2016 20:23:39 GMT
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Post by dizz on Feb 17, 2016 21:13:41 GMT
electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2007&cons=85See the results of Dublin Central in 2007 as an example how surplus votes can transfer. Brady was the preferred Ahern transferee and leapfrogged the other FF candidate in the process. In short if the two Healy Raes get 37% of the vote then that should be enough. Better news is maybe the Healy Raes are eating into the Kerry North SF vote. We can only hope. Is there any particular reason why they would be? They seem like local politicians for local people, so why would they appeal to people they don't already represent? I'm more inclined to think that it might just have been a bad poll. Believe as you wish & I wouldn't bet against Ferris but both SF & the HR's are anti-Government & promise something for nothing. I guess at least the HR's do it with good humour. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2016 22:01:46 GMT
But isn't that exactly the point? If you want anti-government rhetoric in North Kerry, you've traditionally got that by voting SF. I'm not sure a sense of humour trumps voting for a local in Irish politics.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 17, 2016 22:34:23 GMT
You mean there is a Johnny Healy-Rae as well? IIRC he took over Uncle Cap of Powah Junior's council seat. There's LOTS of Healy-Raes. Cap of Powah Senior had quite a few children. We should probably save this for another thread but the Healy-Raes do nothing to make me think STV is great. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 17, 2016 23:09:33 GMT
There's LOTS of Healy-Raes. Cap of Powah Senior had quite a few children. To prove it, watch this (also because it's just about the most squirmingly embarrassing family gathering ever, and it makes both of the candidates sound like they are running for the Michael O'Halloran Articulacy Trophy): |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 18, 2016 1:30:03 GMT
But isn't that exactly the point? If you want anti-government rhetoric in North Kerry, you've traditionally got that by voting SF. I'm not sure a sense of humour trumps voting for a local in Irish politics. Almost certainly a rogue poll although Michael Healy-Rae is popular and widely expected to top the poll. However it is inconceivable that SF are doing this badly and if that poll was the actual result it would mean no TD from Tralee (where the 'left' parties are strongest), which makes it look rather unlikely. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 18, 2016 1:32:30 GMT
There's LOTS of Healy-Raes. Cap of Powah Senior had quite a few children. To prove it, watch this (also because it's just about the most squirmingly embarrassing family gathering ever, and it makes both of the candidates sound like they are running for the Michael O'Halloran Articulacy Trophy): Oh dear... Still, it's them or a fascist. Lesser of two evils and all that! |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 18, 2016 1:36:06 GMT
Anyway I really wouldn't read much into constituency polls, which are even more treacherous in Ireland than in the UK due to STV (and regularly have sample sizes of 500 or less).
Far more important are national polls which haven't been moving a lot, except FG's support seems to have a suffered a small drop of 1-2 percentage points. Still very unclear whether Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein finish second.
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