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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 1, 2016 21:46:43 GMT
Latest gossip from Longford-Westmeath:
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 1, 2016 21:54:14 GMT
Which rather shows the flaw in the system of transferring surplus votes picked at random.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 1, 2016 22:00:58 GMT
Which rather shows the flaw in the system of transferring surplus votes picked at random. In a close race, it means that every recount will have a different result. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 1, 2016 22:06:12 GMT
The talk of the Shinners getting an extra 15 seats or more dissipated quickly.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 1, 2016 22:06:22 GMT
Presumably they don't actually reselect the votes, just recount the votes already selected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2016 22:08:59 GMT
Has any of you found a really good in-depth analysis of this election?
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 1, 2016 22:09:11 GMT
I seem to remember a rather convoluted explanation as to why votes changing on each recount wouldn't be the case but could never understand it.
I guess we could recommended the Gregory method which is already used for the Seanad. However the last time I tried to explain it here the result was a lot of PRists went off STV.
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Post by irish observer on Mar 1, 2016 23:26:00 GMT
I'll do an analysis of what happened in the election later but for the moment let me say am very happy with the result and the Fianna Fáil performance.* We ensured, with the assistance of the actions of the governing parties, that the outgoing government would not be returned. In addition we stalled the advance of Sinn Féin. I've no problem with the Greens returning to the Dáil and getting State funding again and some of the Independents elected are very worthy individuals.
*The fact that the FF performance likely has pissed off many on this site pleases me more!
From looking at my seat pedictions I wasn't too far off in many cases, sometimes it was the last seat which tripped me up. Not too bad overall I think.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 0:56:52 GMT
I'll do an analysis of what happened in the election later but for the moment let me say am very happy with the result and the Fianna Fáil performance.* We ensured, with the assistance of the actions of the governing parties, that the outgoing government would not be returned. In addition we stalled the advance of Sinn Féin. I've no problem with the Greens returning to the Dáil and getting State funding again and some of the Independents elected are very worthy individuals. *The fact that the FF performance likely has pissed off many on this site pleases me more! From looking at my seat pedictions I wasn't too far off in many cases, sometimes it was the last seat which tripped me up. Not too bad overall I think. Can't really imagine what would make a young person support Fianna Fáil. What do you like about them? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 2, 2016 11:39:20 GMT
Actually Northern Ireland uses the last set rule - the surplus comes out of only the set of votes that got the candidate over quota. So if a DUP candidate has 0.9 of a quota and gets 0.2 transfers from the UUP, it's only the bundle that began with the UUP that is divided up for the surplus. There are methods that divide up the entire total of the elected candidate. These can create their own flaws though - the "Inclusive Gregory" method used by the Australian Senate and some state upper houses divides the surplus up by the number of ballot papers so you can get the situation where a 0.9 Shooters & Fishers quota plus a 0.2 surplus off the Liberals after electing two candidates becomes a Liberal dominated 0.1 surplus with the transfers to the Greens diminished. The "Weighted Inclusive Gregory" method instead divides up the surplus by the individual votes. In the 2014 Victorian state election IG instead of WIG saw Labor rather than the Australian Country Alliance take a final seat due to the way the Shooters & Fishers surplus diminished the votes that would have gone to the Greens. blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/12/transfer-values-in-northern-victoria-region.htmlA lot of variations relate to when the systems were originally adopted (although in the case of Australia some of the state upper houses simply copied the-then federal rules) and the technology reasonably available to counting staff at the time. I think this is also the reason why voters in the Seanad panels have votes worth 1000. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2016 19:23:53 GMT
I'll do an analysis of what happened in the election later but for the moment let me say am very happy with the result and the Fianna Fáil performance.* We ensured, with the assistance of the actions of the governing parties, that the outgoing government would not be returned. In addition we stalled the advance of Sinn Féin. I've no problem with the Greens returning to the Dáil and getting State funding again and some of the Independents elected are very worthy individuals. *The fact that the FF performance likely has pissed off many on this site pleases me more! From looking at my seat pedictions I wasn't too far off in many cases, sometimes it was the last seat which tripped me up. Not too bad overall I think. As one of those who am not delighted by Fianna Fail, I offer my congratulations. Your predictions were great to read and, as one who suffered a bit in assessing party and Independent chamces in Cornwall in 2013, I share your sense of not quite getting it right, and sometimes (in my case) terribly wrong. I have started my Cornwall research for next year already. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 2, 2016 19:45:11 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 2, 2016 22:30:40 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 2, 2016 23:45:23 GMT
Another counting failure.
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Mar 3, 2016 7:33:25 GMT
James Bannon FG now eliminated by 6 - his transfers to decide with Labour likely I would guess to make up a 400 deficit to SF to take the last seat.
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dizz
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Post by dizz on Mar 3, 2016 8:29:33 GMT
twitter.com/dingeroPenrose elected for Labour. SF squeezed out on transfers.  (Of course there may be FG surplus transfers from Burke still to be processed but these should favour Penrose further.....) [Post note - there are only 300 or so of them so not enough to change the result.]
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 3, 2016 9:49:13 GMT
So the new Dáil Éireann is:
Fine Gael 50
Fianna Fáil 44
Sinn Féin 23
Independents 17 (including 4 associated with 'Independents4change'
Labour 7
Anti Austerity Alliance - People Before Politics 6
Independent Alliance 6
Social Democrats 3
Green Party 2
With 79 needed for a majority, only an FG-FF grand coalition or a multi-party agreement could do it.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 3, 2016 10:40:15 GMT
Ireland has precedents for multi-party coalitions - the first was five parties against Fianna Fáil and it still needed independents to overtake them. But it seems the Irish "left" is too busy arguing over who is and isn't in it to coalesce.
Interesting to see if the Indy Alliance or AAA-PBP can pick up another independent to get speaking rights.
The Ceann Comhairle (speaker) is now elected by secret ballot of the Dail rather than being given out by the government. How that will impact the numbers remains to be seen.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 3, 2016 12:28:32 GMT
Labour squeezed ahead of the Trots by literally a handful of votes, then. VICTORY!!
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 3, 2016 12:38:28 GMT
A further point on surpluses - Thomas Hare's original system also aimed to make it clear to individual voters just which candidate their vote had elected. The secret ballot (introduced after Hare devised it) is obviously a complication but random sampling gives a strong chance of allowing the individual with a good memory to identify where their vote ended up. Random sampling maintains the numerical integrity of the vote whereas fractional transfer means the vote can be split across multiple candidates (and the IG and WIG methods can lead to hideous fractions) - STV is not immune to the "multiple votes" argument.
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