Irish general election 2016

[Richard Allen]

Feb 28, 2016 18:26:35 GMT Pimpernal said:

Anyone think the redistribution of FG candidate J Perry in Sligo-Leitrim on the 10th count look odd?
One FF candidate got 1000 of his votes - more than the top FF candidate and more than both the other FG candidates...

www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/sligo-leitrim/

Geography played a big factor here. Perry and Scanlon are both from the Sligo part of the constituency.

[Sibboleth]

[Richard Allen]

Feb 28, 2016 18:08:01 GMT Richard Allen said:

Feb 28, 2016 4:26:02 GMT cogload said:

Some dreadful vote management by the Sinners in Donegal which in all probability will see them lose a seat. Lol. As a result they have asked for a full recount.

It looks likely that they will miss out on a second seat. Pádraig MacLochlainn currently holds 5th spot with a lead of nearly 800 votes from Independent Thomas Pringle but there are still 9000+ transfers to come from 2 other Independents.

After the transfers from the 2 Independents MacLochlainn has retained a lead of 74 over Pringle with 556 surplus votes to be redistributed from FF and FG candidates.

CORRECTION: There are 920 surplus from the FF candidate and 241 from the FG candidate.

[Deleted]

Hmm.

[Devil Wincarnate]

That's the end of Lucinda and Paul Bradford then.  Under-promise and under-deliver, truly inspired.

[timrollpickering]

Sinn Fein have had a setback in Donegal. They went after a third seat but instead wound up losing their second TD Pádraig MacLochlainn by 184 votes to Independent Thomas Pringle. The constituency sees the return of FF's Pat The Cope Gallagher who has moved back and forth between the Dail and the European Parliament over the years.

[Deleted]

Transfer patterns: 

[Tangent]

Feb 28, 2016 22:04:00 GMT @odo said:

Transfer patterns: 

[/quote]

Transfer patterns between FF and the Indys are weaker than I thought they would be.

[peterl]

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

[iainbhx]

Feb 28, 2016 22:16:42 GMT Tangent said:

Transfer patterns between FF and the Indys are weaker than I thought they would be.

Not all the Indo's are FF genepool members, some are worse than that. Luckily, the Pork for Cork chap didn't get in.

[dizz]

Feb 28, 2016 22:48:12 GMT peterl said:

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

There is a full recount between the bottom two candidates. Neither is likely to be elected.

[Arthur Figgis]

Feb 28, 2016 22:48:12 GMT peterl said:

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

They probably needed the hall the count was taking place in for a tractor show.

[maxque]

Feb 28, 2016 22:48:12 GMT peterl said:

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

Recount requested by a FF candidate eliminated by 38 votes.

[dizz]

Feb 28, 2016 22:04:00 GMT @odo said:

Transfer patterns: 

\

I can't see the AAA candidate making it in Dublin Bay North & his transfers are not likely to favour Labour there (though they will go in various other directions).

[andrewteale]

Feb 28, 2016 23:00:11 GMT maxque said:

Feb 28, 2016 22:48:12 GMT peterl said:

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

Recount requested by a FF candidate eliminated by 38 votes.

ObserverIE on Atlas is tallying at the Longford-Westmeath count:

There is a complete recheck of papers going on.

There was briefly a rumour at the count that Morgan [IA]'s votes had put Gerety-Quinn [FF, eliminated candidate] ahead of Bannon [FG] (there is a very strong Anyone But Bannon sentiment in Longford). It seems to have been a case of a couple of bundles of 50s initially being counted twice and the mistake then being noticed and corrected before the result was officially announced. However, FF have called for a recount as a result.

The counting operation in Longford tends to be very meticulous and very slow (in the 2014 local elections the count started at 9am but the first official result was not declared until 11.45pm; however a recount over 3 votes on the Sunday night took up most of Monday but didn't uncover a single error in the count process). The 38-vote margin is highly unlikely to change.

At that point Gerety-Quinn (Longford FF candidate) will go out. I was looking at her papers yesterday for second preferences and my impressions were:

1. There are a lot of "plumpers" (1, 2 FF and stop)
2. Hogan [SF] and Penrose [Lab] are roughly equal in terms of preferences, but both seemed to be ahead of Bannon (note the ABB sentiment mentioned above).

(One caveat on the above is that transfers to Gerety ... aren't included in that observation.)

At that point, if Bannon is unable to close the gap with Penrose and/or Hogan, then he goes out. A lot of his preferences will go to Burke (the Mullingar-based FG candidate) but Burke is 3,800 short of the quota so it's likely that those votes will not transfer any further or will at best constitute a small surplus. The question is whether enough Bannon transfers will prefer Penrose ahead of their own fellow FG candidate to close the gap between Penrose and Hogan. We may well be looking at a second recount for the last seat.

We could be still at this on Tuesday.

[greatkingrat]

Feb 28, 2016 23:00:11 GMT maxque said:

Feb 28, 2016 22:48:12 GMT peterl said:

Does anyone know what is going on in Longford-Westmeath. Only 1 seats out of 4 filled, but RTE has the count as "Discontinued"?

Recount requested by a FF candidate eliminated by 38 votes.

Am I missing something? Troy (FF) has a surplus of 600 votes to be redistributed which would presumably take Gerety ahead of Bannon so why is Gerety being eliminated?

[timrollpickering]

DELETED - wrote the post and then got called away.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dublin Bay North news:

[Richard Allen]

Feb 28, 2016 23:27:28 GMT greatkingrat said:

Feb 28, 2016 23:00:11 GMT maxque said:

Recount requested by a FF candidate eliminated by 38 votes.

Am I missing something? Troy (FF) has a surplus of 600 votes to be redistributed which would presumably take Gerety ahead of Bannon so why is Gerety being eliminated?

Troy's surplus has already been redistributed (count 2).

[greatkingrat]

The way the RTE site shows the results isn't very clear, it still has him on 11655 which makes it look like the surplus is yet to be transferred.