The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2016 10:28:00 GMT
Jas on the Atlas Forum has projected final totals of FG 51 FF 44 SF 24 Ind 12 Lab 6 AAA-PBP 6 IA 6 Independents for Change 4 SD 3 Grn 2 WUAG 1 Renua 0. Poor vote balancing seems to have cost FF about three or four seats. Oh dear, what a shame, never mind  |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 28, 2016 10:43:52 GMT
Which is exactly what I said would happen after the 2011 Election and everyone derided me for it... Fianna Fail is a bit like the Peronist movement in Argentina. Despite its repulsive character and disastrous record, its long-term grip on a large part of the electorate remains seemingly unshakeable. Yes. It's also similar in its ideological elasticity and personality driven politics. They do pork barrelling particularly well which is exaggerated using STV |
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 28, 2016 10:52:09 GMT
I'm intrigued to compare the statements of the Irish Labour party leaders with those of the Liberal Democrats after their trouncing last year
They are remarkably similar. And also remarkably stubborn in not admitting that partaking in a coalition carrying out policies the opposite to what they are supposed to believe in has greatly damaged them.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 28, 2016 11:00:24 GMT
Given the crash in their support, I wonder if Irish Labour might once again become vulnerable to entryism. Except this time, rather than the entryists being Trots rapidly transitioning into radical centrists, the new entryists might be leftish independents seeking a recognisable brand. Of course, that depends upon whether the brand recognition is worth the derision associated with it.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 28, 2016 11:02:45 GMT
Given the crash in their support, I wonder if Irish Labour might once again become vulnerable to entryism. Except this time, rather than the entryists being Trots rapidly transitioning into radical centrists, the new entryists might be leftish independents seeking a recognisable brand. Of course, that depends upon whether the brand recognition is worth the derision associated with it. It might be tarnished now, but Irish Labour has one hell of a brand and one hell of a history, which is why the far- left consistently try to steal it for themselves (hello, Eirigi). |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 28, 2016 11:37:20 GMT
Beard of Powah has been elected on the Cap's surplus.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 28, 2016 11:41:17 GMT
Ireland bans dual mandates so there'll need to be a replacement on Kerry County Council. Presumably a Healy-Rae #5 will be called up (#4 Johnny, Danny's son, took over Michael's seat in 2011).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 28, 2016 11:43:38 GMT
Given the crash in their support, I wonder if Irish Labour might once again become vulnerable to entryism. Except this time, rather than the entryists being Trots rapidly transitioning into radical centrists, the new entryists might be leftish independents seeking a recognisable brand. Of course, that depends upon whether the brand recognition is worth the derision associated with it. It might be tarnished now, but Irish Labour has one hell of a brand and one hell of a history, which is why the far- left consistently try to steal it for themselves (hello, Eirigi). Yes, but the good bits of their history are mostly fairly distant, and you can't trade on nostalgia forever. Never having led a government, they don't even have a national institution they can claim ownership of. Even leaving aside their record in the outgoing government, their achievements over the past three decades boil down to being ineffectual junior coalition partners. If they can't rebuild support in working-class areas soonish, I think it'll be hard for them to avoid following the PD's trajectory. |
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dizz
Labour
Posts: 1,090
Member is Online
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Post by dizz on Feb 28, 2016 11:53:05 GMT
Jas on the Atlas Forum has projected final totals of FG 51 FF 44 SF 24 Ind 12 Lab 6 AAA-PBP 6 IA 6 Independents for Change 4 SD 3 Grn 2 WUAG 1 Renua 0. Poor vote balancing seems to have cost FF about three or four seats. Labour score looks right. Tipperary looks to be going well for them whereas I think they will be squeezed out in both Dublin Bay seats (&Louth & Longford-Westmeath). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 12:00:08 GMT
Who do our Labour friends support -
Ff
Labour
Sd
SF
Aaa?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Feb 28, 2016 12:03:49 GMT
SD.
I have a great deal of respect for Catherine Murphy since she stood up in Dail to oppose Denis O'Brien abusive injunctions.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 12:09:42 GMT
I'm looking forward to seeing some maps to compare with those of 2011.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 28, 2016 12:14:27 GMT
I'd first-preference SD. I could see myself preferencing (in approximate order of likelihood) left-leaning independents, Lab, SF, AAA-PBP, the Greens and FF, but it would depend upon candidates and the situation in the particular constituency.
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 28, 2016 12:18:17 GMT
Exactly who is going to form a government? The current government lacks the numbers. FG, FF and SF have all ruled out working with each other. A left-of-centre coalition (being touted by that well-known lefty party, the Greens) looks a pipe dream.
Meanwhile Gerry Adams has made it in on the sixth count. He must be thinking nostalgically of the days of Belfast West.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Feb 28, 2016 12:25:56 GMT
It might be tarnished now, but Irish Labour has one hell of a brand and one hell of a history, which is why the far- left consistently try to steal it for themselves (hello, Eirigi). And Militant infiltrated Irish Labour in the 19 80s, just like they did in the UK. Joe Higgins and Claire Daly were at the forefront. They were expelled in 1988, I think. I remember the Militant Irish Monthly well. Of course Irish Labour were infiltrated twice, once by Militant and later by the Stickies/Workers Party/Democratic Left. The latter did a far more effective job of infiltration! |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 28, 2016 12:42:16 GMT
Beard of Powah has been elected on the Cap's surplus. He's got a cap as well. The question is which of their many offspring will they put on Kerry County Council in place of Beard of Powah? They've already got one sprog on there. Next election they'll be going for three quotahs. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2016 13:17:04 GMT
Eamon Ryan has been elected for the Greens in Dublin Bay South.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 28, 2016 13:19:31 GMT
Jas on the Atlas Forum has projected final totals of FG 51 FF 44 SF 24 Ind 12 Lab 6 AAA-PBP 6 IA 6 Independents for Change 4 SD 3 Grn 2 WUAG 1 Renua 0. Poor vote balancing seems to have cost FF about three or four seats. I just had a look at all the constituencies and giving myself the maximum possible room for error I got FG: 43-55 (probably about 50) FF: 40-46 SF: 23-25 Lab: 6-10 (probably lower end) Other: 32-39 So all in all a complete mess. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 28, 2016 14:01:52 GMT
In Tipperary it looks like FG have managed to to turn a 0.97 quota into 0 zero seats.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Feb 28, 2016 14:34:31 GMT
In Tipperary it looks like FG have managed to to turn a 0.97 quota into 0 zero seats. It's nice to see after nearly a century of STV elections, all 3 main parties in the South can still screw up their handling of STV elections... |
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