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Post by John Chanin on Feb 26, 2016 13:08:52 GMT
Would FG be able to cobble together enough informal support from the pork-barrelers to run as a workable minority? I doubt there is enough pork in the barrel, and even if there was it wouldn't look good. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Feb 26, 2016 13:17:37 GMT
Some truths about Irish coalition-forming still hold - Fianna Fáil won't go into grand coalition with Fine Gael (especially not as junior partner), and Sinn Féin are not appropriate coalition partners for any of the larger parties. Exactly that, but Sinn Féin will soon be an appropriate partner. Give it a decade. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Feb 26, 2016 14:23:57 GMT
Exactly that, but Sinn Féin will soon be an appropriate partner. Give it a decade. They really need Adams and McGuinness to leave the stage in order to become coalition material. I know, but I expect that to happen soon. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 26, 2016 14:42:05 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 26, 2016 18:30:54 GMT
Some truths about Irish coalition-forming still hold - Fianna Fáil won't go into grand coalition with Fine Gael (especially not as junior partner), and Sinn Féin are not appropriate coalition partners for any of the larger parties. Which would put a stop to the old joke of "What's the difference between the Stickies and the Provos?" "15 to 25 years". Sinn Fein have basically come all the way the Workers' Party did a generation earlier - going left-wing, IRA ceasefire, entry into southern politics, establishing themselves as the Republic's main hard left party, finding the IRA past is still a drag... - but on the joke's timetable this would be the Dail for making it into government and that doesn't look likely. They'd pretty much need to purge the Adams/McGuinness generation - the latter's run for President really blew open a lot of the opposition and hostility that still exists towards them and they'd need some big moment to really show they'd put their past behind them. And a Democratic Left style breakaway seems unlikely given Adams's skills in taking the organisation with him (whereas just about every previous attempt wound up with a breakaway). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 19:05:48 GMT
Adams and McGuinness are 67 and 65 respectively. By contrast, elder statesman Alex Salmond is 61. Presumably Mary Lou McDonald will take over in this term. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 26, 2016 19:37:20 GMT
He doesn't look any younger though. But that's #scottishlifestyle I guess.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 26, 2016 19:41:13 GMT
61 stone?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 26, 2016 22:56:58 GMT
Exit Poll from Ipsos Mori, commissioned by the Irish Times:  |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Feb 26, 2016 23:07:00 GMT
Exit Poll from Ipsos Mori, commissioned by the Irish Times: If true, FG exactly -10.0% on 1st preference votes from 2011 FF +5.45% SF +5.0% Lab -11.65% A thoroughly depressing result. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 26, 2016 23:13:34 GMT
If you run the best seat estimates on these votes, the only viable coalition is FG-FF. I can't see that lasting a year; I think Ireland's heading for new elections later in 2016.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 26, 2016 23:19:39 GMT
Some truths about Irish coalition-forming still hold - Fianna Fáil won't go into grand coalition with Fine Gael (especially not as junior partner), and Sinn Féin are not appropriate coalition partners for any of the larger parties. Which would put a stop to the old joke of "What's the difference between the Stickies and the Provos?" "15 to 25 years". Sinn Fein have basically come all the way the Workers' Party did a generation earlier - going left-wing, IRA ceasefire, entry into southern politics, establishing themselves as the Republic's main hard left party, finding the IRA past is still a drag... - but on the joke's timetable this would be the Dail for making it into government and that doesn't look likely. They'd pretty much need to purge the Adams/McGuinness generation - the latter's run for President really blew open a lot of the opposition and hostility that still exists towards them and they'd need some big moment to really show they'd put their past behind them. And a Democratic Left style breakaway seems unlikely given Adams's skills in taking the organisation with him (whereas just about every previous attempt wound up with a breakaway). I doubt we'll ever see a formal rejection of Adams and McGuiness, at least not whilst they're alive. But the partial successes they've already had have got them a lot of new politicians, many of whom are able and eager to demonstrate it. If they view the present leadership as a block on these ambitions, they'll want them to move on. And it's likely they'll be harder to keep in line than their brethren in the North, because they don't have the same solid core who stepped straight from the IRA command structure into electoral politics. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 27, 2016 0:04:01 GMT
Not sure if these are official but the Irish Times exit poll implies this seat distribution in Dáil Éireann:
FG: 48
FF: 40
SF: 26
IND: 21
LAB: 9
GP: 4
SD: 4
AAAPBP: 4
RN: 2
A coalition needs 80 for an overall majority.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2016 0:37:36 GMT
Not sure if these are official but the Irish Times exit poll implies this seat distribution in Dáil Éireann: FG: 48 FF: 40 SF: 26 IND: 21 LAB: 9 GP: 4 SD: 4 AAA-PBP: 4 RN: 2 A coalition needs 80 for an overall majority. Given that the "undesirables" FF + SF + Trots have 70 combined that is going to be very hard. You need support from the vast majority of Indies (esp. if the SocDems insist on being actually left wing). |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 27, 2016 0:40:12 GMT
That would be an incredible comeback for Fianna Fail, another for the Greens, a good start for the Social Democrats (and the cause of much agony for British Labourites in our polls), a pasting for Labour, a curtailment of the Sinn Fein rise, ... and a Dail so unstable it would make the first two 1980s ones look like great virtues.
And how many blasted independents?! Will there be some decent types or will it be all gombeens selling their vote for public money?
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 27, 2016 1:28:34 GMT
The constituency we're all watching with baited breath:
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 27, 2016 1:37:41 GMT
And if the voters played their cards right the Dail could have a third Healy-Rae of a kind:
Could it happen?
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,558
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Post by johnloony on Feb 27, 2016 4:20:39 GMT
It is at times like this that I try to imagine what sort of party system the Republic of Ireland would have if it had adopted FPTP in the first place. Hopefully it would have evolved into a more class-based two-main-party system (Labour and not-Labour) instead of perpetuating the ridiculous legacy of the Civil-War FF/FG split.
Another what-if would be if it had party list PR (in the existing constituencies) instead of STV. Hopefully that would be useful in killing off the pork-barreling self-pompous independents, and persuading the micro-lefty parties to merge into a useful viable party.
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Feb 27, 2016 7:38:21 GMT
RTE exit poll
FG 24.8
FF 21.1
SF 16.0
Inds 11.0
Lab 7.1
AAA-PBP 4.7
Green 3.6
Ind Alliance 3.0
Soc Dem 3.7
Renua 2.4
Other 2.6
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2016 7:47:05 GMT
An even bigger mess.
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