|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 23, 2016 23:21:11 GMT
Moving to Leinster.
Carlow-Kilkenny (5): This constituency currently has 4 Kilkenny and 1 Carlow TD and it is likely this balance will remain. John McGuinness will top the poll for FF and John-Paul Phelan of FG will take the second seat. Bobby Aylward won a by-election here for FF and the party will retain a second seat though it could be Aylward's expense as Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor may take the Carlow seat. Pat Deering could be the casualty as a result. If Aylward loses it can be assumed that FG's David Fitzgerald would be the favourite to win a second seat for FG. During the recent floods Labour Minister Ann Phelan fell out of a canoe with Joan Burton when visiting flood victims. Some felt this said a lot about her chances. Labour had a bad day at the office in 2014 around the constituency and Kathleen Funchion is expected to gain at her expense for SF. She will not poll as well as she did in the by-election as McGuinness will win a few thousand at her expense. Prediction: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF.
Wexford (5): Despite having no elected Cllrs who are members of his organisation Mick Wallace has a safe seat here though may not poll as well as 2011. Brendan Howlin will also get re-elected. Labour used elect 2 TDs in Wexford. He is named after Brendan Corish, who used represent the constituency, and to whom his family were very politicially close. He may be battling for the last seat but he should hold on. Paul Kehoe, the Chief Whip, will also win a seat for FG in Enniscorthy. Outgoing FF TD John Browne is retiring and his son, James, who polled very well in Enniscorthy in the locals in 2014 is expected to retain his seat. Dr Liam Twomey of FG is also retiring. FG hope that Senator Michael D'Arcy Jnr, who was on the Banking Inquiry, can retain a seat for the party. He is based in Gorey and is in a battle with Cllr Malcolm Byrne, also from the area, new FF and openly gay. SF hope they can finally gain here but their candidate (Cllr Mythen) is Enniscorthy. Enniscorthy cannot return three TDs as I think it's too crowded and I think he will lose out. Up until last week I felt FG were certain of 2 seats here. It is possible FF could win that Gorey battle. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG, 1LAB, 1IND.
Wicklow (5): Divided by the mountains into Wickla and Wicklow this constituency is also unchanged. The first seat will go to Simon Harris of FG from Greystones. (He bears a slight resemblance to Percy Wetmore in The Green Mile). SF almost won a seat here in 2011 and Bray based Cllr John Brady will win a seat here easily. Stephen Donnelly from the Social Democrats also has a safe seat and has a council base to back him up. Anne Ferris of Labour is gone, Labour have collapsed here. Andrew Doyle should retain his seat and will eat into the vote of Billy Timmins also. I think Timmins will lose out to FF's Pat Casey of Glendalough for the last seat. He is actually a relative of the former Bishop Casey. His running mate is actually a Cllr from the Shankill area in Dun Laoghaire but I think some transfers from her and transfers from Joe Behan who was a former FF Cllr and TD will help elect him. Prediction: 2FG, 1SF, 1SD, 1FF.
Kildare South (3): More rural than its Northern neighbour this constituency takes in all the Curragh and the associated army camp. It loses Monasterevin to Laois. There is significant commuter population also in Newbridge/Kildare, most of Naas and Athy. FG will win a seat here and I would favour Martin Heydon. Regarding FF Sean O Fearghail has a strong running-mate in Fiona O'Loughlin. There is some talk of a second seat. I can't see it though. Labour's Jack Wall is retiring but his son, Mark, a Cllr in Athy is running. I think he could hold due to the absence of other likely contenders. Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1LAB.
Kildare North (4): Essentially a communter suburb of Dublin. I used live here for some time. Catherine Murphy of the Social Democrats will easily top the poll. There is a FG seat and Bernard Durkan who is from outside Maynooth should be the favourite. FF should regain a seat here and I favour Sallins Cllr James Lawless. Labour have always been strong here with residual strength in towns such as Maynooth and Leixlip even with Murphy's support base. This should help Emmet Stagg retain his seat. It will be a long count, however. Prediction: 1SD, 1FG, 1FF, 1LAB.
Laois (3): A part of Monasterevin joins Laois from Kildare South. Probably the easiest constituency to pick. All 3 outgoing TDs; Sean Fleming (FF), Charlie Flanagan (FG) and Brian Stanley (SF) will retain their seats easily. Prediction: 1FF, 1FG, 1SF.
Offaly (3): Borrisokane and part of North Tipp joins Offaly. Barry Cowen and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FF and FG will both be re-elected with Cowen topping the poll. The third seat is hard to call. John Leahy of Renua has a chance as does John Foley the Independent Cllr who was FF and FF's Eddie Fitzpatrick who himself once was a PD. This will be an Edenderry seat. I think Foley's votes will assist Fitzpatrick and elect him. Prediction: 2FF, 1FG.
Longford-Westmeath (4): There has to be a Longford TD and FG's James Bannon is the most likely. FF's Robert Troy in Mullingar will also be re-elected. Flooding was a major issue in Athlone and this gave great prominence to Kevin "Boxer" Moran an Independent and former FF Cllr who was actually manning pumps himself and protecting peoples homes. I think he'll win and put pressure on both Gabby McFadden and Willie Penrose. There will be a second govt seat likely in Mullingar and Peter Burke could unseat Willie Penrose. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF, 1IND.
Meath West (3): Damien English and Peadar Toibin both have safe seats for FG and SF. Ray Butler of FG in Trim does not have a safe seat and I think he will lose out to FF Cllr Shane Cassells who has stood here before. This could result in all TDs being based from Navan but enough FF and SF votes will pull out of Trim to damage Butler I think. Prediction: 1FG, 1SF, 1FF.
Meath East (3): Senator Thomas Byrne will win the first seat topping the poll. Helen McEntee of FG has the safest FG seat. Regina Doherty, the most likely for promotion if they attain office, is now in a fight with SF for the last seat. At the moment I think she'll hold on. The Labour vote has collapsed here. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF.
Louth (5): Adams will top the poll and will take a second seat with Cllr Imelda Munster in Drogheda. Fergus O'Dowd of FG is also safe. Labour should retain a seat in Drogheda and FF have enough votes for a seat. Prediction: 2SF, 1FG, 1FF, 1LAB.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2016 23:36:21 GMT
Is anyone finding their best match is their party's official sibling? I would actually vote FF. There you go...  |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Feb 24, 2016 12:52:34 GMT
Yeah but that didn't come about because of the quiz did it?
|
|
|
|
Post by mrhell on Feb 24, 2016 17:53:46 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 25, 2016 0:04:47 GMT
Finally Dublin
Dublin Fingal (5): Formerly Dublin North this has now gained 1 seat to be a 5 seater. All of the Swords environs has returned from Dublin West and Portmarnock and Balgriffin return from the old Dublin North-East. Clare Daly will comfortably top the poll here as one of the best performers in this Dáil session. The Minister for Children, James Reilly, will also retain his seat. Senator Darragh O'Brien, who was very close to being elected in 2011, will also win a seat for FF. I do not see FG's Alan Farrell retaining his seat as O'Brien will poll higher in Malahide. Brendan Ryan of Labour is a brother of Seán Ryan who was a former TD. The enlargement to a 5 seater plus the elimination of Farrell will likely help in his eventual election. While this constituency has always had a broad middle-class tint I can see another left-wing seat here and going to SF. They have developed a council base here as of 2014 and Louise O'Reilly, a trade unionist, is articulate. Prediction: 1IND; 1FG; 1FF; 1LAB; 1SF.
Dublin West (4): Essentially the fastest growing constituency in the state and home to a large new-Irish population. This constituency is chiefly made up of the middle class Castleknock and the more working class Mulhuddart LEAs but has also gained additional middle-class territory from Dublin Central. Leo Varadkar will top the poll and SF's Paul Donnelly, who is a Mulhuddart Cllr, will win the second seat. Jack Chambers has essentially harvested the old Lenihan votes and organisation and Castleknock and will take the third seat after the elimination of disaffected FFer now Independent Cllr David McGuinness. Who wins the last seat? Will Joan lose? My sources tell me that Joan will hold just. She will get FG transfers from Catherine Noone and Varadkar's surplus. Ruth Coppinger has been an effective TD but she is no Joe Higgins who got the extra appeal into the white collar workers like teachers etc. Prediction: 1FG; 1SF; 1FF; 1LAB.
Dublin North-West (3): The core of this constituency is Finglas, Ballymun and Whitehall and it is very working class in nature. It also contains Ashtown and new portions of Drumcondra which have been removed from Dublin Central. Róisín Shorthall will take the first seat for the Social Democrats and Dessie Ellis of SF, who was an engineer of sorts (fixing tvs and then making bombs) will retain his. SF are running a second candidate here but will not take a second seat this is about a successor for Ellis. The battle for the last seat is between FG's Noel Rock and FF's Paul McAuliffe (both Dublin City Cllrs). McAuliffe leads FF on Dublin City and is a former PD. He is a good guy but unfortunately I think Rock will prevail here. John Lyons of Labour is gone. Prediction: 1SD; 1SF; 1FG.
Dublin Bay-North (5): This seat is a merger of the constituencies of Dublin North-Central and Dublin North-East bar a loss of Portmarnock and Balgriffin to Dublin Fingal. Richard Bruton will win the first seat for FG. Finian McGrath will be re-elected as an Independent. FF will regain a seat here and Seán Haughey is the most likely. SF will gain a seat here also likely through MacDonncha. The last seat will be a very long battle. I see Aodhan O Riordáin of Labour losing. Its Tommy Broughan versus Cian O'Callaghan of the Social Democrats. Geography and the new party thing could help O'Callaghan. Prediction: 1FG, 1IND, 1FF, 1SF, 1SD.
Dublin Central (3): This seat has seen significant boundary changes with effectively all of the Drumcondra, Glasnevin and Navan Road areas moving out of the area. This has made the area much more proletarian in outlook. Mary Lou McDonald will win the first seat for SF. Christy Burke, formerly of SF, who was the Lord Mayor of Dublin last year as an Independent, and a very good one, will unseat Maureen O'Sullivan. Significantly he has the public backing of Fintan Gregory a brother of the late Tony Gregory with whom he worked closely. O'Sullivan was endorsed by the Gregory's after Tony's death so there appears to be a split in the camp. The third seat will go to the government and is between Pascal Donohoe and Joe Costello. FG have thrown the kitchen sink at Donohoe to save him financially and if this was the UK given the transport strikes etc he would be pilloried. However he will survive at Joe's expense. While a good candidate this is now too hard an area for Mary Fitzpatrick to win in and in addition the residual FF organisation that liked Bertie hate her. Prediction: 1SF; 1IND; 1FG.
I will do the rest tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 25, 2016 13:03:07 GMT
Dublin West (4): Essentially the fastest growing constituency in the state and home to a large new-Irish population. Do the 'New Irish' vote? Are they likely to have much impact on the result? Do they tend towards any particular party? Following legislation brought in by Neil Blaney once you have residence you can vote in local elections. If you have acquired citizenship or are a British national you can vote in Dáil elections too. In my experience the African community are quite interested in politics but I would not say any particular trends are evident. |
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862 
|
Post by obsie on Feb 25, 2016 13:58:46 GMT
Longford-Westmeath (4): There has to be a Longford TD and FG's James Bannon is the most likely. FF's Robert Troy in Mullingar will also be re-elected. Flooding was a major issue in Athlone and this gave great prominence to Kevin "Boxer" Moran an Independent and former FF Cllr who was actually manning pumps himself and protecting peoples homes. I think he'll win and put pressure on both Gabby McFadden and Willie Penrose. There will be a second govt seat likely in Mullingar and Peter Burke could unseat Willie Penrose. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF, 1IND. Bannon seems to be in trouble in Longford - he's been getting a lot of flak on the doorsteps and he's been behaving even more erratically than usual. FF have shot themselves in the foot locally with their selection troubles, but there are a number of independents standing, of whom the most likely to trouble Bannon is James Morgan. Some local FGers are supposedly supporting Burke as a means of being rid of Bannon. I make it Troy (FF), Burke (FG), either Moran (Ind) or Hogan (SF) to come through in Athlone, with the last seat being between Penrose (Lab) and whichever of Bannon or Morgan comes out on top. |
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 25, 2016 14:47:21 GMT
Why would FG gain in Dublin NW when they failed to win any seat in 2011, when the environment was much more favourable to FG especially in areas such as this? Imvho I think you are overrating both FF and FG's chances.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 25, 2016 16:40:19 GMT
Why would FG gain in Dublin NW when they failed to win any seat in 2011, when the environment was much more favourable to FG especially in areas such as this? Imvho I think you are overrating both FF and FG's chances. The Dublin North-West of 2011 was focused on the Finglas and Ballymun-Whitehall LEAs as you know but also contained the Ashtown area. This time around part of the territory of Drumcondra (which is split between Dublin North-West and Dublin West now) joins the constituency and makes it more middle class. I accept FG have not returned a TD here since Mary Flaherty but when Lyons is eliminated his votes will transfer to Rock. McAuliffe will be hurt by an absence of transfers. There is no second SF seat as I previously said and I see no other credible contenders. Feel free to disclose predictions of your own ghyl if you wish I know you did for Dublin Rathdown. These are just my best guesses. I did a similar exercise for the NI Councils before and didn't do too bad. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 25, 2016 16:55:02 GMT
Longford-Westmeath (4): There has to be a Longford TD and FG's James Bannon is the most likely. FF's Robert Troy in Mullingar will also be re-elected. Flooding was a major issue in Athlone and this gave great prominence to Kevin "Boxer" Moran an Independent and former FF Cllr who was actually manning pumps himself and protecting peoples homes. I think he'll win and put pressure on both Gabby McFadden and Willie Penrose. There will be a second govt seat likely in Mullingar and Peter Burke could unseat Willie Penrose. Prediction: 2FG, 1FF, 1IND. Bannon seems to be in trouble in Longford - he's been getting a lot of flak on the doorsteps and he's been behaving even more erratically than usual. FF have shot themselves in the foot locally with their selection troubles, but there are a number of independents standing, of whom the most likely to trouble Bannon is James Morgan. Some local FGers are supposedly supporting Burke as a means of being rid of Bannon. I make it Troy (FF), Burke (FG), either Moran (Ind) or Hogan (SF) to come through in Athlone, with the last seat being between Penrose (Lab) and whichever of Bannon or Morgan comes out on top. We are not that far off from agreeing I see. Re your prediction for the last seat this would have to be a Longford seat which would rule out Penrose being in contention for it in my opinion. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 25, 2016 16:57:55 GMT
Top stuff, Irish Observer.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 19:39:16 GMT
Bannon seems to be in trouble in Longford - he's been getting a lot of flak on the doorsteps and he's been behaving even more erratically than usual. FF have shot themselves in the foot locally with their selection troubles, but there are a number of independents standing, of whom the most likely to trouble Bannon is James Morgan. Some local FGers are supposedly supporting Burke as a means of being rid of Bannon. I make it Troy (FF), Burke (FG), either Moran (Ind) or Hogan (SF) to come through in Athlone, with the last seat being between Penrose (Lab) and whichever of Bannon or Morgan comes out on top. Over the last 20 years there has been a proliferation of Independent candidates and TD's, and many constituencies now have several rival independents standing. I'd be interested to get views from our Irish members about what are the defining characteristics of a successful Independent candidacy? Why do some win and others make no impact? It's simple mate, Keep It Local! Whatever the issue, it relates in some way to your local constituents (always referred to as good, close or personal friends): water charges, Greek bailouts, refugees, Donald Trump, the invasion of Crimea, all affect the price of Mrs Mulgrew's weekly shop (and what with her mother's back trouble, hasn't she enough to be coping with?). A good (ie. successful) Independent, brings home the bacon for the locals as a price for his/her support, and knows everybody who can help out with the cost of a First Communion dress. It is all about the knowing and the doing. The unsuccessful ones are those who think it is all about the ideology, the big idea or good management. It isn't enough to sort out a constituent's problem, YOU have to be seen to have sorted it out. My family were Labour people in difficult times and, as my Grandma said, it was then you needed the scoundrels to run for election, as "they could always get the votes", so kept the party visible locally. It is all about the visibility. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 25, 2016 22:30:30 GMT
I see BBC Parliament has a bit of RTÉ coverage of the results on at 6:35 on Saturday night.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Feb 25, 2016 22:37:49 GMT
Dublin Bay South (4): Effectively the old Dublin South-East constituency. This area is quite wealthy comprising D4, Rathmines, Ranelagh, Rathgar, Sandymount, Donnybrook and Pembroke. It contains the Embassy quarter, UCD and the Aviva stadium. Terenure has been added in here from Dublin South-Central but the constituency does have some working-class areas in Irishtown, Pearse Street, Ringsend and Harold's Cross. FG have a safe seat and it will go to Eoghan Murphy who was on the Banking Enquiry. Lucinda Creighton of Renua will retain her seat I think. In 2014 the Greens re-established a Council base here in both LEAs and Eamon Ryan was a Cllr in the constituency previously. I think he will win here. If he doesn't it could be curtains. Labour are only running 1 candidate in a bid to retain Minister Kevin Humphreys' seat. His base is in the Inner-city. Jim O'Callaghan, a FF Cllr and brother of the RTE presenter, Miriam, is in the mix. So too is Chris Andrews a former FF TD who is now a SF Cllr. Given his family's links with FF and nation-building I would take near sexual delight if he fails in his quest. He is still in the hunt though. I think O'Callaghan will lose out to transfers and that the second FG candidate's (O'Connell's) elimination will help elect Humphreys. Otherwise if his vote collapses he will completely ensure Ryan's election through transfers. Prediction: 1FG; 1RENUA; 1GRN; 1LAB.
Dublin South-Central (4): Most proletarian constituency in the state especially as Terenure has moved to Dublin Bay-South. Aenghus O Snodaigh is safe for SF. So too is the Independent Joan Collins. Inchicore based Catherine Byrne will retain her seat here for FG and I think Bríd Smith will take the last seat for AAA/PBP. I foresee Labour dropping from 2 to 0 seats here. Conaghan has retired already and Eric Byrne will find transfers hard. Catherine Ardagh of FF will be hurt by the loss of Terenure which her dad used represent back in the day. Prediction: 1SF; 1IND; 1FG; 1AAA/PBP.
Dublin Mid-West (4): This area is diverse with Clondalkin and surrounds especially Neilstown more working class. Lucan and Palmerstown are more middle class and Rathcoole, Saggart and Newcastle which are more rural commuter towns. Mary Harney represented here and came from the Newcastle area. Eoin O Broin one of the SF brain boxes will top the poll for the party. Frances Fitzgerald will be re-elected for FG. FF's John Curran used be a TD here up until 2011 but I think he will regain his seat. Labour have given up 1 seat already as Dowds has retired and Tuffy is trying to hold on. She actually voted against going into coalition with FG but has publicly defended some of the austerity particularly those that have impacted upon women, single mothers and children. This has hindered her re-election chances. I don't see Derek Keating of FG retaining his seat either as I don't foresee Fitzgerald having enough votes to save him. Gino Kenny has been beavering away in Clondalkin and I see him getting him a seat for the AAA/PBP. Prediction: 1SF; 1FG; 1FF; 1AAA/PBP.
Dublin South-West (5): This constituency is centred on the people's republic of Tallaght and associated working class areas like Oldbawn, Jobstown, Fettercairn and Killinarden. The Irish comedy Intermission was filmed here, still worth a few laughs. It has a smaller middle class area in Templeogue and Greenhills. It has gained Rathfarnam and Firhouse from the old Dublin South which has increased the middle class dynamic somewhat. Seán Crowe of SF has a safe seat, he carved it out here. I think Paul Murphy will retain the seat he won in the by-election. John Lahart of FF has followed his Rathfarnam Council base into here and I think this will help him. I give him a seat. I also give a seat to Colm Brophy, a close associate of Brian Hayes, to retain the latter's seat for FG. Pat Rabbitte's retirement has emperilled Labour's efforts here and again I see them coming back seatless. Eamon Maloney is running as an Independent but will not retain his seat. I have to favour SF's Sarah Holland currently the Mayor of SDCC for the last seat. If there is a surprise it will come from Katharine Zappone. Prediction: 2SF; 1AAA/PBP; 1FF; 1FG.
Dublin Rathdown (3): This is what remains of the old Dublin South. I referred to the Rathfarnam transfer above. In addition Foxrock, Cabinteely and Carrickmines move to Dún Laoghaire. The constituency remains heavily middle class in nature. Shane Ross will easily take the first seat as an Independent. There is also a FG seat and Alan Shatter will take this. Interestingly both he and his running-mate, Josepha Madigan, a Cllr, have both published erotic novella. However I think she will be damaged given how she was highlighted as an opponent of traveller accommodation particularly after the deaths of a number of young travellers in South County Dublin on a halting site. Alex White is hoping to retain his seat here. I can't see it as the quota will be too large. Peter Matthews who has cancer will not retain his seat. Mary White is running a strong campaign here and is a doubty campaigner but I think will struggle from lack of transfers. Then there's Catherine Martin Deputy Leader of the Greens, a Cllr in Dundrum, and representing some of the same area that Ryan covered when a TD. If White is eliminated, which I think he will be, his transfers plus those of SF will help Martin. Prediction: 1IND; 1FG; 1GRN.
Dún Laoghaire (4): Traditionally middle class and seen as blue blood in nature this constituency historically was FG heartland. Liam Cosgrave sat for here. Seán Barrett the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker) is returned automatically for FG. Mary Mitchell-O'Connor of FG who was once a PD will also win a seat for FG. Richard Boyd-Barrett will get re-elected for AAA/PBP. If he needs them he has SF transfers. Mary Hanafin can expect to poll well in Blackrock where she represents as a Cllr and decently in Killiney-Shankill. She will outpoll her running-mate, Cormac Devlin, another Cllr by a decent margin. Carrie Smyth is a decent Labour Cllr but is not in contention to retain Eamon Gilmore's seat. Hanafin's challenger will be Maria Bailey of FG, another Cllr. I don't see another government quota however. Prediction: 2FG; 1AAA/PBP; 1FF.
|
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862
|
Post by obsie on Feb 26, 2016 0:36:53 GMT
Bannon seems to be in trouble in Longford - he's been getting a lot of flak on the doorsteps and he's been behaving even more erratically than usual. FF have shot themselves in the foot locally with their selection troubles, but there are a number of independents standing, of whom the most likely to trouble Bannon is James Morgan. Some local FGers are supposedly supporting Burke as a means of being rid of Bannon. I make it Troy (FF), Burke (FG), either Moran (Ind) or Hogan (SF) to come through in Athlone, with the last seat being between Penrose (Lab) and whichever of Bannon or Morgan comes out on top. Over the last 20 years there has been a proliferation of Independent candidates and TD's, and many constituencies now have several rival independents standing. I'd be interested to get views from our Irish members about what are the defining characteristics of a successful Independent candidacy? Why do some win and others make no impact? Credibility on the ground, basically, which is easier to achieve if you're a sitting councillor or well-known in the area. If you look at RTÉ's candidate videos, there are a lot of obvious loons who will make no impact. I would confidently say that four of the candidates in Longford-Westmeath will get less than 500 votes each and three of those will be lucky to break 200. Of the credible candidates, "Boxer" Moran is a well-known local councillor who left FF after a selection row with the then-kingpins in Athlone FF, Morgan is a local businessman who established credibility in the 2014 by-election through being the only candidate based in Longford, Sexton is a former TD and long standing councillor, Fagan is a local community activist who gained credibility in the 2014 by-election. The Healy-Raes, much as they get mocked, had a long tradition of activity in local politics (and they are not anywhere near as green as they're cabbagey-looking). |
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Feb 26, 2016 1:23:43 GMT
Posted this somewhere else: my predictions table. Likely to be very wrong especially as I tried to predict the 'shock' independent wins. There is usually a few every election, that is when someone that nobody outside the constituency has ever heard of goes and wins a seat. That is the basis for my, almost certainly going to be seen as ridiculous, predictions in Cork NW and one or two others.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2016 8:01:05 GMT
Based on your predictions what's the most likely government after elections? Grand coalition of FF-FG or FF-Lab minority?
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Feb 26, 2016 8:43:18 GMT
Based on your predictions what's the most likely government after elections? Grand coalition of FF-FG or FF-Lab minority? On those numbers I'd expect a FG-Lab minority (with SDs involved somehow). FF would not want to be in Government on those numbers |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 26, 2016 9:49:27 GMT
Some truths about Irish coalition-forming still hold - Fianna Fáil won't go into grand coalition with Fine Gael (especially not as junior partner), and Sinn Féin are not appropriate coalition partners for any of the larger parties.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
|
Post by Tony Otim on Feb 26, 2016 11:15:34 GMT
Would FG be able to cobble together enough informal support from the pork-barrelers to run as a workable minority?
|
|
